Liberal Minority Government 2025 - ???

[MilEME09]

Guess we now know which party has the jumbo shrimp with cocktail sauce at their Christmas event.

Due to inflation those are just normal shrimp now

 

[Jarnhamar]

Guess she was just at the Conservative supper the night before the Liberal supper.

He must have put on quite the act.

 

[Halifax Tar]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/mp-crosses-floor-to-liberals-9.7012767

Another conservative just crossed the floor.

Oof... Just before a leadership review...

 

[Remius]

Oof... Just before a leadership review...

The base will see to it that he gets through that I think.

 

[IKnowNothing]

The base will see to it that he gets through that I think.

IF Carney get's his one more for a majority

And IF PP survives the review

I wonder how tenable the status quo is for some if it becomes more or less locked in for 3 more years, with a strong signal that the base/party apparatus isnt turning back

 

[Halifax Tar]

The base will see to it that he gets through that I think.

That's very possible. Im hearing his popularity amongst Con voters has dropped 10%. And that he need 80% to stay in his role ? I stand to be corrected, just something I think I heard on talk radio.

Anywho, if the CPC choose to keep him at this point they have no one to blame but themselves for their lack of ability to form Gov.

 

[Remius]

That's very possible. Im hearing his popularity amongst Con voters has dropped 10%.

Yes. He’s far back in that regard.

And that he need 80% to stay in his role ? I stand to be corrected, just something I think I heard on talk radio.

I heard the same thing but that number is not written in stone. Less than 80% is definitely not good but he isn’t bound by that.

Anywho, if the CPC choose to keep him at this point they have no one to blame but themselves for their lack of ability to form Gov.

Agreed.

 

[brihard]

I could imagine a course of events where the CPC vote to keep Poilievre as leader, and that itself ends up cited by one or more disaffected MPs as a final trigger event pushing them to cross. I.e., the CPC refuses to change course so they’ve had enough.

PM Carney would probably be tickled pink to both get his majority AND have the CPC confirm Poilievre as continued leader. Politically, he would probably prefer that to the CPC sucking back, reassessing, and picking someone new who may be more effective. I could even literally see him asking other crossers to check fire until after the leadership review confirms Poilievre.

 

[Altair]

Not needing to hear about when the next election is will be a great development.

Also, committes not being deadlocked would also be lovely.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Indeed. Anyone hopping over now has a solid chance at three or more years of a majority under a dude who’s distinctly different from recent predecessors. There will be a lot of riding level math to do on whether a crossing is politically survivable, but I’d say the situation right now is not the norm we’re used to.

Recollect David Emerson. Some people want to serve usefully for a bit and then get out. Re-election isn't much of an influencing factor.

Poilievre is supposed to be pretty intelligent, but I wonder if he can grasp more than abstractly that the most useful people in politics are not careerists who like to play incessant political gotcha games and are obsessed with intricate parliamentary procedural manoeuvres. It would be so easy for the CPC to be the natural home of "serious people" on matters of money and infrastructure. Can there be anyone at all that he trusts advising him how bad his instincts are?

 

[brihard]

Recollect David Emerson. Some people want to serve usefully for a bit and then get out. Re-election isn't much of an influencing factor.

Poilievre is supposed to be pretty intelligent, but I wonder if he can grasp more than abstractly that the most useful people in politics are not careerists who like to play incessant political gotcha games and are obsessed with intricate parliamentary procedural manoeuvres. It would be so easy for the CPC to be the natural home of "serious people" on matters of money and infrastructure. Can there be anyone at all that he trusts advising him how bad his instincts are?

Indeed. There’s a tone and tenor that worked a year ago that doesn’t really work now. It may be that over a decade of Parliament becoming increasingly unserious, we have an opposition that calibrated itself well to oppose that. Whatever else can be said of PMMC and his style of government, initial impressions are that “unserious” is not his style. His very different tone and his more rigid approach to some issues will drive some away, but may also draw others in. It will remain to se seen how this shakes out.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Recollect David Emerson. Some people want to serve usefully for a bit and then get out. Re-election isn't much of an influencing factor.

Poilievre is supposed to be pretty intelligent, but I wonder if he can grasp more than abstractly that the most useful people in politics are not careerists who like to play incessant political gotcha games and are obsessed with intricate parliamentary procedural manoeuvres. It would be so easy for the CPC to be the natural home of "serious people" on matters of money and infrastructure. Can there be anyone at all that he trusts advising him how bad his instincts are?

No

 

[MilEME09]

If another MP crosses during the winter break, I don't see Pierre's survivability being that good in Jan, lose an election, your own seat, and hand the liberals a majority because of your leadership pushing people away? any reasonable member of the party at that point would want a change in leadership

 

[Lumber]

I could imagine a course of events where the CPC vote to keep Poilievre as leader, and that itself ends up cited by one or more disaffected MPs as a final trigger event pushing them to cross. I.e., the CPC refuses to change course so they’ve had enough.

PM Carney would probably be tickled pink to both get his majority AND have the CPC confirm Poilievre as continued leader. Politically, he would probably prefer that to the CPC sucking back, reassessing, and picking someone new who may be more effective. I could even literally see him asking other crossers to check fire until after the leadership review confirms Poilievre.

Recall that the LPC changing leaders was the worst thing that happened to the CPC. And so, the CPC not changing leaders would be the best thing that could happen to the LPC.

 

[Remius]

If another MP crosses during the winter break, I don't see Pierre's survivability being that good in Jan, lose an election, your own seat, and hand the liberals a majority because of your leadership pushing people away? any reasonable member of the party at that point would want a change in leadership

The question is, then, are party members or most of them the reasonable type?

 

[IKnowNothing]

The question is, then, are party members or most of them the reasonable type?

Circa 2021 - yes.

But mathematically speaking as of the 2022 Leadership race the majority of the party memberships are were (edit- things may have changed since then) Poilievre sign-ups, which were recruited primarily through an online infospace that has been reinforced and amplified since then. An infospace that defines a version of reality where the problem is never Poilievre.

 

[childs56]

(While polling Canadians saying they're Team Blue =/= party members getting out & voting @ a convention, but), Angus Reid survey says ....

Future of the CPC: A (declining) majority of Conservative voters would keep Poilievre as leader in January - Angus Reid Institute

Most CPC voters believe party is in ‘right place’ politically, but others believe it’s ‘too far to the right’ December 11, 2025 – Like snow blanketing the country, a quieting has settled upon caucus rumblings over the leadership of Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. But as the days count down...

angusreid.org

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How the survey was done:

If you want to really get into the weeds, full package (questions, further breakdowns, etc.) attached.

Angus Reid is about as trust worthy and reliable as the cbc to be impartial.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Angus Reid is about as trust worthy and reliable as the cbc to be impartial.

Media Bias Fact Check rates them as having high factual reporting, excellent country freedom rating, and a high credibility rating.

Link