Liberal Minority Government 2025 - ???

[Jarnhamar]

Pierre Poilievre has had 2 in two months, with more being rumored to be considering the same.

Floor crossing rumors aren’t evidence of a collapsing party. Two MPs in a minority parliament, during a leadership realignment on the Liberal side, is hardly unprecedented or predictive. Liberal voters are excited because Carney gives them a chance to run from their guilt over blindly supporting Trudeau for 10 years and putting Canada in the position it's in. MPs move for personal or local reasons; voters don’t follow nearly so easily.

People who don't like Poilievre are working over time to amplify anything and everything they can to disparage him.

Before you place any bets because of rumors from people in the know don't forget Guilbeault won’t resign from Cabinet over pipeline deal, government source says

 

[Jarnhamar]

No they aren't- that's the point.

Right. Someone like Ma crossing the floor to the Liberals, bringing the Liberals' one step closer to a majority, was a great way for him to go from Conservative nobody to Liberal hero. It's about him.

 

[Altair]

Leona Alleslev was elected as a Liberal in 2015, and crossed the floor to the Conservatives in 2018 - I believe she's the only Trudeau floor-crosser.

Otherwise, I think the rest of your post is bang-on.

Edited for spelling.

You are right, I did miss that one, thank you.

 

[Altair]

Floor crossing rumors aren’t evidence of a collapsing party. Two MPs in a minority parliament, during a leadership realignment on the Liberal side, is hardly unprecedented or predictive. Liberal voters are excited because Carney gives them a chance to run from their guilt over blindly supporting Trudeau for 10 years and putting Canada in the position it's in. MPs move for personal or local reasons; voters don’t follow nearly so easily.

I never said the CPC was collapsing.

I said that those closer to the center are considering moving over to the LPC who are now in the center and that if politicians are considering it, so are the voters. The LPC might lose some voters to the NDP, but they will likely pick up that and more from CPC voters who are closer to the center of the canadian political spectrum.

People who don't like Poilievre are working over time to amplify anything and everything they can to disparage him.

Floor crossing is a relatively unprecedented event in Canadian federal politics and PP has had 2, and is facing the potential of more and youère here trying to frame this as business as usual?

Before you place any bets because of rumors from people in the know don't forget Guilbeault won’t resign from Cabinet over pipeline deal, government source says

Notice the difference between government sources and Ottawa insiders.

 

[dapaterson]

That's cool. I turned down an offer to make more money doing an easier job as a Nuclear Security Officer a couple years ago. Careers aren't always about money.

This job?

 

[Altair]

Right. Someone like Ma crossing the floor to the Liberals, bringing the Liberals' one step closer to a majority, was a great way for him to go from Conservative nobody to Liberal hero. It's about him.

I suppose its completely impossible that PP is a divisive leader, who prefers spectacle to substance and that there are those disgruntled with his leadership.

Everyone who leaves must be completely selfish.

 

[IKnowNothing]

Right. Someone like Ma crossing the floor to the Liberals, bringing the Liberals' one step closer to a majority, was a great way for him to go from Conservative nobody to Liberal hero. It's about him.

Maybe it is about him... being used to accomplishing goals and contributing to organizational success while operating at an executive level of large organizations and actively making a legitimate financial sacrifice to serve in parliament, deciding that he didnt want to waste his years of sacrifice reading from a script and playing at political theatre to satisfy one man's ambition while other people did the work of governing the nation.

Maybe not.

Maybe the above is a petulant manifestation of ego. Maybe its a noble commitment to beneficially serve the country. YMMV.

 

[Jarnhamar]

I never said the CPC was collapsing.

I was generalizing, sorry fam.

Floor crossing is a relatively unprecedented event in Canadian federal politics and PP has had 2, and is facing the potential of more and youère here trying to frame this as business as usual?

I made a Data-Inquiry with the World-Logic-Engine regarding this and it instructed me more than 300 Members of Parliament have renounced their original allegiance and recalibrated their factional alignment while in holy office since the birth of our country, 158 years previous.

More recently, 80 Members of Parliament have executed a mid-term change of loyalty in the last 25 standard years (this seems like a lot, I'm trying to verify it)

 

[Jarnhamar]

Maybe it is about him... being used to accomplishing goals and contributing to organizational success while operating at an executive level of large organizations and actively making a legitimate financial sacrifice to serve in parliament, deciding that he didnt want to waste his years of sacrifice reading from a script and playing at political theatre to satisfy one man's ambition while other people did the work of governing the nation.

Maybe not.

Maybe the above is a petulant manifestation of ego. Maybe its a noble commitment to beneficially serve the country. YMMV.

You make some great points.

Do you think the former Governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England will let his party members not read from the Liberal script, and effectively just follow their heart when it comes to voting in Parliament? Does he seem like the type of leader to empower his team to disagree with him in public? That would certainly be a deviation from the norm IMO.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Its crazy to me that Cons continue to poll neck and neck with the Libs yet the leader of the CPC is a dumpster fire.

With PP essentially being almost despised you'd think it would also reflect in party popularity, or at least I would...

I really wish he would put the Party before himself and realize he did what he was intended to do.

 

[Remius]

I was generalizing, sorry fam.


I made a Data-Inquiry with the World-Logic-Engine regarding this and it instructed me more than 300 Members of Parliament have renounced their original allegiance and recalibrated their factional alignment while in holy office since the birth of our country, 158 years previous.

More recently, 80 Members of Parliament have executed a mid-term change of loyalty in the last 25 standard years.

The data is pure. The logic holds.

Further data info is that 3,442 individuals have been an MP in Canada.

Your 300 number also includes those that were independent before or after they switched, so really only about 150 switched from one party to another. That is less than 5%.

So I agree that there is indeed precedent it is rare.

 

[IKnowNothing]

You make some great points.

Do you think the former Governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England will let his party members not read from the Liberal script, and effectively just follow their heart when it comes to voting in Parliament? Does he seem like the type of leader to empower his team to disagree with him in public? That would certainly be a deviation from the norm IMO.

That's a fair rebuttal.

But sticking to script can be a lot easier to stomache if:
- you're being allowed to contribute to the work being done when the cameras are off
-you're a part of actually accomplishing something

 

[Remius]

You make some great points.

Do you think the former Governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England will let his party members not read from the Liberal script, and effectively just follow their heart when it comes to voting in Parliament? Does he seem like the type of leader to empower his team to disagree with him in public? That would certainly be a deviation from the norm IMO.

I’m sure they are whipped. But he seems to at least let them speak freely. For now.

 

[HavokFour]

Yeah, I'd say there's a huge problem if Brian Lilley of all people is talking like this. Mostly stuff that has already been reported, but there's a few extra tidbits sprinkled in here.

Poilievre clearly has a caucus management problem, and if he loses one more, it is highly doubtful that he will survive the leadership review in January.

The deal to have Conservative MP Michael Ma cross the floor to become a Liberal MP was brokered by Natural Resources Minister Tim Hodgson.

News of the move was kept to a tight inner circle up until the announcement was made — with Ma’s staff not even knowing.

“We’re getting one more for sure, possibly two,” said one Liberal convinced the party will have a majority shortly.

Partisans will attempt to put all of this on Carney: On corruption, on Chinese election interference, but part of it has to do with how Poilievre is managing his caucus.

And even if the party base were to reward him with a ringing endorsement, Poilievre’s ability to accomplish anything in Parliament would be limited by a disinterested and disaffected caucus.

These will be some of the most intense days of Poilievre’s political career as he tries to save his leadership and hold his party together.

LILLEY: Liberals flipping MP Michael Ma in secret deal a major blow to Poilievre

Liberal deal to flip Conservative MP Michael Ma puts Carney one seat from a majority and intensifies pressure on Poilievre. Read more.

torontosun.com

Archive

 

[The Bread Guy]

Avi Lewis

To be fair to Team Orange, one of the coach wanna-be's isn't exactly a reflection of the whole team - yet, anyway.

Yeah, I'd say there's a huge problem if Brian Lilley of all people is talking like this. Mostly stuff that has already been reported, but there's a few extra tidbits sprinkled in here.

LILLEY: Liberals flipping MP Michael Ma in secret deal a major blow to Poilievre

Liberal deal to flip Conservative MP Michael Ma puts Carney one seat from a majority and intensifies pressure on Poilievre. Read more.

torontosun.com

Archive

Yeah, the messenger in question here makes this biggish, for sure - like when Trudeau Boosters were calling for Justin to GTFO just before he did so.

They often provide information leading up to the poll, along with leading questions for the poll itself.

I guess the same way the cbc does. Add an opinion and then support it with your own truths and facts. Until called out on it and then ask for more money.

It is Simple check your sources of informatiom before wording the questions. Ask unbiased questiows, factual questions and provide legitimate links to legtimate sources.

First of all retract the polling results.
Second issue a statement on why you had to retract the data.
Third issue an apology.
Fouth issue proper information amd redo the poll.


Analysing results may also differ depending on the actual poll, demographics, results, desired outcome along with required data for one's own requirements. Extracting data and extrapolating data becomes subject to opinions and desired outcomes for many.

Happy to see your specific problems with the specific Angus Reid material I posted, then. Or with their data when it showed PP in the lead before PMJT decided to GTFO.

An alternative: you can take each poll result as one point, and see how lots of polls are going and what they're showing in general?

 

[The Bread Guy]

It is like the middle is the largest section of the Canadian political spectrum and represents the mainstream of Canadian political tendencies.

So obviously any media that caters to the largest market must be, by its very nature, evil, untrustworthy, and anti-democratic.

For sure. After all, in spite of the same media covering PP’s after he took over Team Blue, the unwashed mass of media consumers were so brainwashed that PP pulled huge polling leads with various forms for +2 years before Justin exited stage left. BAD bought-and-paid-for media …

 

[The Bread Guy]

Before you place any bets because of rumors from people in the know don't forget Guilbeault won’t resign from Cabinet over pipeline deal, government source says

Here’s a wacky thought as I see this: in spite of leaving cabinet in a reasonably adult fashion, what are the odds that if he’s TRULY bitter inside, if one more Tory jumps ship, Guilbeault could negate a hair-thin majority by becoming an independent?

 

[brihard]

Here’s a wacky thought as I see this: in spite of leaving cabinet in a reasonably adult fashion, what are the odds that if he’s TRULY bitter inside, if one more Tory jumps ship, Guilbeault could negate a hair-thin majority by becoming an independent?

He’d be done as an MP after the next election if he did, but he might be fine with that.

I could also imagine him crossing to the Greens just on a point of principle.

I’m sure this has occurred to the LPC inner circle, and they’re probably seeking a majority with a seat or two safety margin.

 

[Lumber]

He’d be done as an MP after the next election if he did, but he might be fine with that.

I could also imagine him crossing to the Greens just on a point of principle.

I’m sure this has occurred to the LPC inner circle, and they’re probably seeking a majority with a seat or two safety margin.

The more I learn about him, the more I don't understand why he isn't already a member of the Greens and hasn't been since day 1.

 

[Remius]

He’d be done as an MP after the next election if he did, but he might be fine with that.

I hear that Quebec Liberals might be looking for a new leader soon…

I could also imagine him crossing to the Greens just on a point of principle.

I’m sure this has occurred to the LPC inner circle, and they’re probably seeking a majority with a seat or two safety margin.

If the rumours are true they may get that…