- Reaction score
- 6,663
- Points
- 1,260
This feels more like an Urban / Rural divide rather than East / West
Liberal Minority Government 2025 - ???
- Thread starter Altair
- Start date
- Reaction score
- 13,232
- Points
- 1,260
Which is likely far more real than the East/West divide. I imagine a logger from central BC and a logger from northern Quebec, once they got over the language barrier, would quickly find common cause against Vancouver and Montreal.
daftandbarmy
Army.ca Fossil
- Reaction score
- 44,357
- Points
- 1,160
You should read this more often if you want to see savage
Private Eye Magazine | Official Site - the UK's number one best-selling news and current affairs magazine, edited by Ian Hislop
YES, IT’S KEMI BURGERNOCH!
www.private-eye.co.uk
Halifax Tar
Army.ca Legend
- Reaction score
- 18,045
- Points
- 1,260
I don't know if he was an effective leader of the CPC. I don't think history will look kindly on his hubris and unwillingness to read the room and know when its time to leave. I do think he was effective in that he forced out probably the worst PM in Canadian history. So in reality he was good for Canada. Canada would be much worse off right now if PMJT had stayed in. But for the CPC he will probably be remembered as a force detractor, IMHO.
I think he sees himself something akin to a Mariano Rivera, someone who can come in shut down the opposition and get the win. In reality he was at best a Jeff Nelson or Mike Stanton set up man who was left in the game to long and got blown out in the 9th.
HavokFour
Army.ca Veteran
- Reaction score
- 2,730
- Points
- 1,040
New Nano's numbers, continuing to show the current trend.
Pierre is approaching Trudeau 2024 territory with these.
Pierre is approaching Trudeau 2024 territory with these.
PrairieFella
Army.ca Veteran
- Reaction score
- 3,838
- Points
- 1,110
Winnipeg and Edmonton not so much. Theyre good bellwethers for national opinion. Especially Winnipeg.
MilEME09
Army.ca Fixture
- Reaction score
- 7,163
- Points
- 1,210
And i expect it to go lower, as PMMC economic initiatives and trade deals start yielding results for canadians. Especially in ontario, votes will shift, if we can get O&G infrastructure started, even AB and sask may go more red.
- Reaction score
- 6,446
- Points
- 1,260
I don't know if he was an effective leader of the CPC. I don't think history will look kindly on his hubris and unwillingness to read the room and know when its time to leave. I do think he was effective in that he forced out probably the worst PM in Canadian history. So in reality he was good for Canada. Canada would be much worse off right now if PMJT had stayed in. But for the CPC he will probably be remembered as a force detractor, IMHO.
I think he sees himself something akin to a Mariano Rivera, someone who can come in shut down the opposition and get the win. In reality he was at best a Jeff Nelson or Mike Stanton set up man who was left in the game to long and got blown out in the 9th.
Yeah, he was a very effective foil to Trudeau, but it helped that Trudeau wasn’t very serious either. I think the biggest thing was his failure to adapt when the ground shifted, when Carney, who appeared serious with an impressive resume in global finance, replaced the unserious Trudeau, and when Trump started to threaten and insult the country. PP and his team failed to find another noun to verb after that, and when he did finally address the elephant in the room, addressed it once and continued to verb the same nouns. The voters were not seeing any adaptation to changing situations, making him look unserious when compared to Carney. To me, he seemed like in an emergency, he would just verb the same nouns in response. And when he does address the emergency directly, he’ll do it once, then verb the same nouns again, then get upset when you ask him to address the situation again. “I already addressed the emergency last week! Verb the noun!”
daftandbarmy
Army.ca Fossil
- Reaction score
- 44,357
- Points
- 1,160
The Poilievre message machine - and discipline - is heavily driven by data analytics so if what he's saying isn't to your liking, your view probably doesn't matter to them:
The Numbers Behind Poilievre’s Leadership Dilemma
Polls show half the country wants him gone, even as Conservative voters overwhelmingly want him to stay
Poll analysts will caution that “we need more data” when debating whether freshly released numbers herald genuine trends or whether we are simply reacting to statistical noise. Don’t get me wrong: overreacting to blips is a wonderful (and lucrative) click generator in this dopamine-craving age of social media. But it rarely provides analysis that genuinely informs voters.
This is why it helps, from time to time, to look back at where we were and where we are—to test whether earlier interpretations still hold. Back in August, shortly after Pierre Poilievre was duly elected member of Parliament for Battle River—Crowfoot, I wrote for The Walrus: “Every move this fall—in the Commons, in public messaging, even on social media—will be scrutinized as if part of an updated résumé to be submitted [at the national convention] in Calgary.” This convention, happening in January, is where delegates will vote on whether Poilievre remains leader.
For its end-of-year federal survey, Leger measured not only views on Prime Minister Mark Carney and his government but also public impressions of the Conservative leader—including whether he should continue to lead his party. Let’s explore these numbers. First Carney, then the man who hopes to replace him.
The Carney government ends 2025 in a position best described as fragile yet stable. Nationally, 51 percent of Canadians approve of the job Carney is doing as prime minister, compared with 38 percent who disapprove—a respectable +13 net approval for any government in its fourth term.
Regionally, Carney posts robust approval in Ontario (net +22), Atlantic Canada (+27), Quebec (+10), and even the Prairies (+15). The Prairie numbers may be a touch anomalous (current polling averages don’t show the Liberals doing that well in the region, for instance), but the other regions form the backbone of the 2025 Liberal coalition, and this late-year data suggests Carney personally remains the one holding it together, as Carney’s own numbers outshine those of his party.
The picture is more challenging in British Columbia—where the Liberals won a healthy twenty seats in April. Last month, Leger’s poll had Carney’s approval at a net +11 in the province, but these numbers have fallen since: 46 percent approve of the Carney government while just as many disapprove. A net-zero approval in a province so central to Liberal gains should set off alarm bells at the party headquarters. What happened? Statistical noise or a direct effect of the Canada–Alberta memorandum of understanding on a potential pipeline linking Alberta to the Pacific coast? We need more data.
As for Alberta, it remains Carney’s toughest region: 40 percent approval versus 49 percent disapproval (net −9). The MOU may yet shift opinions in 2026, but it is too early to tell.
Carney’s approval also shows a clear rebound from an early-fall dip. In early October, his approval had slid to 47 percent amid pre-budget tensions and cabinet turbulence. By late November, he had climbed back above the 50 percent threshold.
Again, recent political developments may not yet have fully registered with the public, so caution is warranted. Still, the broad trend suggests Carney ends the year stronger than he began the fall.
If Carney’s numbers show resilience, Poilievre’s numbers show stasis. Leger asked its panel: “Overall, how satisfied are you with the way Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre is performing his role?” Nationally, 31 percent of Canadians are satisfied with his performance, while 53 percent are dissatisfied. For a leader heading into a mandatory review, these are sobering figures.
Only in Alberta does Poilievre score a net-positive satisfaction rating (+9). Even that margin is modest by historical Conservative standards. Elsewhere, his numbers are strikingly poor: 32 percent satisfaction in BC (net −24), 31 percent in Ontario (net −23), and a steep net −38 rating in Quebec.
Here lies the political paradox defining the Conservative Party at the close of 2025: national voting intentions still show the Conservatives hovering near 40 percent, often statistically tied with the Liberals.
The 338Canada seat projection continues to show the Conservatives competitive in key regions and within striking distance of the incumbent Liberals. However, Carney receives some support from voters outside the Liberal base, while Poilievre remains deeply disliked by non–Conservative Party voters.
thewalrus.ca
The Numbers Behind Poilievre’s Leadership Dilemma
Polls show half the country wants him gone, even as Conservative voters overwhelmingly want him to stay
Poll analysts will caution that “we need more data” when debating whether freshly released numbers herald genuine trends or whether we are simply reacting to statistical noise. Don’t get me wrong: overreacting to blips is a wonderful (and lucrative) click generator in this dopamine-craving age of social media. But it rarely provides analysis that genuinely informs voters.
This is why it helps, from time to time, to look back at where we were and where we are—to test whether earlier interpretations still hold. Back in August, shortly after Pierre Poilievre was duly elected member of Parliament for Battle River—Crowfoot, I wrote for The Walrus: “Every move this fall—in the Commons, in public messaging, even on social media—will be scrutinized as if part of an updated résumé to be submitted [at the national convention] in Calgary.” This convention, happening in January, is where delegates will vote on whether Poilievre remains leader.
For its end-of-year federal survey, Leger measured not only views on Prime Minister Mark Carney and his government but also public impressions of the Conservative leader—including whether he should continue to lead his party. Let’s explore these numbers. First Carney, then the man who hopes to replace him.
The Carney government ends 2025 in a position best described as fragile yet stable. Nationally, 51 percent of Canadians approve of the job Carney is doing as prime minister, compared with 38 percent who disapprove—a respectable +13 net approval for any government in its fourth term.
Regionally, Carney posts robust approval in Ontario (net +22), Atlantic Canada (+27), Quebec (+10), and even the Prairies (+15). The Prairie numbers may be a touch anomalous (current polling averages don’t show the Liberals doing that well in the region, for instance), but the other regions form the backbone of the 2025 Liberal coalition, and this late-year data suggests Carney personally remains the one holding it together, as Carney’s own numbers outshine those of his party.
The picture is more challenging in British Columbia—where the Liberals won a healthy twenty seats in April. Last month, Leger’s poll had Carney’s approval at a net +11 in the province, but these numbers have fallen since: 46 percent approve of the Carney government while just as many disapprove. A net-zero approval in a province so central to Liberal gains should set off alarm bells at the party headquarters. What happened? Statistical noise or a direct effect of the Canada–Alberta memorandum of understanding on a potential pipeline linking Alberta to the Pacific coast? We need more data.
As for Alberta, it remains Carney’s toughest region: 40 percent approval versus 49 percent disapproval (net −9). The MOU may yet shift opinions in 2026, but it is too early to tell.
Carney’s approval also shows a clear rebound from an early-fall dip. In early October, his approval had slid to 47 percent amid pre-budget tensions and cabinet turbulence. By late November, he had climbed back above the 50 percent threshold.
Again, recent political developments may not yet have fully registered with the public, so caution is warranted. Still, the broad trend suggests Carney ends the year stronger than he began the fall.
If Carney’s numbers show resilience, Poilievre’s numbers show stasis. Leger asked its panel: “Overall, how satisfied are you with the way Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre is performing his role?” Nationally, 31 percent of Canadians are satisfied with his performance, while 53 percent are dissatisfied. For a leader heading into a mandatory review, these are sobering figures.
Only in Alberta does Poilievre score a net-positive satisfaction rating (+9). Even that margin is modest by historical Conservative standards. Elsewhere, his numbers are strikingly poor: 32 percent satisfaction in BC (net −24), 31 percent in Ontario (net −23), and a steep net −38 rating in Quebec.
Here lies the political paradox defining the Conservative Party at the close of 2025: national voting intentions still show the Conservatives hovering near 40 percent, often statistically tied with the Liberals.
The 338Canada seat projection continues to show the Conservatives competitive in key regions and within striking distance of the incumbent Liberals. However, Carney receives some support from voters outside the Liberal base, while Poilievre remains deeply disliked by non–Conservative Party voters.
The Numbers Behind Poilievre’s Leadership Dilemma | The Walrus
Polls show half the country wants him gone, even as Conservative voters overwhelmingly want him to stay
thewalrus.ca
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