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Liberal Minority Government 2025 - ???

I do believe during the 2025 federal election campaign Mark Carney said that:

1. He would balance the operating budget within 3 years; and

2. the overall federal budget could return to surplus in about 4–5 years if everything went to plan.

I wasn't tracking that's. The clock is ticking I suppose.
 
I do believe during the 2025 federal election campaign Mark Carney said that:

1. He would balance the operating budget within 3 years; and

2. the overall federal budget could return to surplus in about 4–5 years if everything went to plan.
An operating surplus is no big achievement. The 2026 Fiscal Reference Tables show 2024-25 Revenue > Expenses already, extending a long period of operating balance surpluses broken only by the 2008-09 fiscal crisis and the COVID crisis.

Getting to net surplus in 5 years looks unlikely, given the current size of the deficit, the promised new spending, and the lack of appetite for significant spending reductions in the departments which are increasing spending.

I suppose "everything according to plan" depends on the usual "favourable assumptions we made".
 
Are you including your municipal and provincial Govs ?

I agree they should also be held to thier campaigns.

The Welsh are having a rough time right now, miserable 6 nations display. But I like this:

I meant government of any stripe, irrespective of the colour of car they drive (red or blue).
 
Ok, so when has enough time elapsed ? Thats all I want to know.

I think @Navy_Pete is saying roughly 20 years.
Not really, there are some things we saw as soon as they were implemented (like canceling the consumer carbon tax and the drop in gas prices when it kicked in 4 or 5 weeks later), and other things like the new trade agreements negotiated in the last year that start later this year or early next year. Similarly pay increase is done, some changes to tax code are in effect, and other things are in place, or have been passed in legislation or will kick in this year. But a lot of things have a lag time from approvals to starting, so all pretty normal.

One obvious one that will take time to build up to is the defence spending increase, as it takes a while to start spending billions, but the ease at which multi-million dollar buys and tasks (for things like building repairs and parts) is getting authorized is crazy, so just waiting on the actual delivery for those to start showing up on the ledger. Even if nothing else is approved the amount of actual projects on new capabilities and re-investment in existing capabilities is crazy; they are going to spend billions in the next 5-10 years on unsexy things like base power and water supplies, which won't even get an announcement, but a lot is from the cold war or earlier (with some wooden piping apparently still part of some systems).

Other things though, like pipelines, bulidings homes etc will take years to actually sort out, so lots of things where even if the groundwork is in place, funding is available, permits are apporoved etc tomorrow would be years before they broke ground.

A good example of that is the NSS, which started during the Harper govt (although the idea was floated around during Chretien, just didn't get past the mandarins), started going through Trudeau, rolling along with Carney and will likely span several more PMs of whatever party they rep. That's a generational project, that gets disconnected from any party, and will span multiple governments. Something like a pipeline, home building surge etc at the federal level would be the same.
 
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