My crystal ball tells me this (the IMMEDIATE future is more predictable than 7 years from now)
I see the Liberals strong probability of winning all 3 coming by elections. Yup, even Terrabonne in Quebec (spelling?). The Liberals are allowed to chip in $100,000 for each candidate they are running but it can be spent ANYWHERE, and the word is they are dogpiling the spending in Quebec riding where the Bloc is a genuine threat. That means some very aggressive spending and campaigning.
They are pretty sure they have the two Toronto ridings locked up (Although word of caution, remember when Toronto St Paul by election in 2024 was a "safe" Liberal riding? Turned out then it wasn't, thanks to Trudeau, but swap out leaders in 2025 and Liberals win it in 2025), so there is a SMALL chance some of the Liberals failure to achieve a damn thing could happen but I do expect LPC wins.
Now, Carney has his coveted majority. I think he will hold onto it for at leat a year, most likely longer. It will be shaky. A slight majority means the PM and ministers have to be cautious about absenteeism in parliament or risk coming down on a surprise confidence vote.
Another word to the Liberal cheerleaders, be warned, there is far more fractioning in the LPC than the CPC. The extreme SJW and climate activist are not feeling the Carney Corporate vibe. As expected, Carney started to move his crew in. Tim Hodgson is front and center much more these days. He just hired an old associate as the PBO replacement. Nathaniel Erskine-Smith is looking to be the front runner for the Ontario LP leadership (He is openly not feeling the Carney vibe).
This is only a rumour at this point but apparently some old Liberal back benchers are feeling slighted by "conservative yesterday/Liberal Today" floor crossers who get preferential treatment. And on the topic of floor crossers, in the long run, it rarely sits well with Canadians.
Yes, I know, some of you will say I am a total Pierre fan boy. I am very supportive of him and still believe him. Go back and read some of my post though, as much as I support him, if he couldn't win his by election or get through his leadership review, then I was more than willing to say "You were awesome but pack your bags and leave, Pierre"
I STILL also stand by my statement that PM MC has squandered what was a golden gift. If he basically did the opposite of what JT did, he could have been walking right into a clear majority election this spring instead of begging for traitors and hoping a few by elections go well.
