Liberal Minority Government 2025 - ???

[Brad Sallows]

So we've gone from - "only well off white collar workers will benefit" to "non-white collar people don't work in the impacted areas" to "well okay they do but if we're not careful the good might be offset by detrimental changes to other aspects of the transit system"

I'm passing along information I've acquired from reading results of studies - empirical observations - of some of the effects of rail transit, and the preferences people reveal through surveys.

Maybe just re-state my actual statements instead of making up your own more absolutist statements.

"Build an expensive rail to meet the business commuting needs of classes of people who are already WFH, telecommuting, telemeeting, etc" is not "only well off white collar workers". The particular point there is that, like overland high-speed internet being replaced by Starlink, it's an evolving model in which the need for physical transit is shrinking.

"You're describing a lot of people whose work places mostly aren't going to be near a HSR terminal" isn't "non-white collar people don't work in the impacted areas".

It doesn't matter what kinds of strawman statements are constructed - the non-leisure users of HSR between cities are going to overwhelmingly be white collar workers, particularly knowledge workers.

As always, every dollar spent benefits somebody. The questions are whom, and by how much. Just as EV subsidies tend to benefit people who already have money in pocket, and OAS without much lower income caps benefits people who are not living on low incomes, HSR benefits mostly people who don't need much assistance and could make do with existing solutions. Public funds being fungible and limited, expenditures on people who don't need help necessarily displaces funding of things that might be more productive or targeted at people with greater needs.

I'm confident that given the tendency of big projects to massively overrun cost and schedule, capital costs will be much higher than forecast. I'm confident that given the political reluctance to set fares high enough to cover operating costs, the relevant authorities will be scrambling to find other sources of money, which includes dipping into other pots, which includes other components of transit controlled by an authority. I'm confident that the forecasted economic figures provided by boosters are based on the most optomistic assumptions they can justify, and that the results will be lesser.

A lot of money, not necessarily where it will produce the most utility, sunk into one risk.

 

[ArmyRick]

Curious. How many here buy into the theory of "the Laurentian elite" and its alleged influence on Ottawa and thus Canada?

John Ibbitson: The Laurentian elite strikes back

Was this federal election the last gasp of the Laurentian elite?

thehub.ca

 

[daftandbarmy]

Curious. How many here buy into the theory of "the Laurentian elite" and its alleged influence on Ottawa and thus Canada?

John Ibbitson: The Laurentian elite strikes back

Was this federal election the last gasp of the Laurentian elite?

thehub.ca

The well known elitist political power block in Canadian society centred around Ottawa?

Oh hell yeah, it's a thing ... probably before the whole 'Upper and Lower Canada' thing too...

Laurentian elite - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[IKnowNothing]

t doesn't matter what kinds of strawman statements are constructed - the non-leisure users of HSR between cities are going to overwhelmingly be white collar workers, particularly knowledge workers.

Saying something (again) doesn't make it true

More people report to non knowledge- work/laptop jobs within 10-15 minute by foot or transit of Union Station And 610 bay there are people in most Canadian towns/cities. Bank street/Tunney's not quite as massive but still huge. Quebec metro back to Toronto scale.

Toronto to Montreal or Quebec city trips fit the white collar /leisure dichotomy. But the peterborough to Toronto-Ottawa, Ottawa to Montreal, and trois riviere-Montreal sub legs create viable transit based commutes and have potential to merge labour markets

 

[Jarnhamar]

Curious. How many here buy into the theory of "the Laurentian elite" and its alleged influence on Ottawa and thus Canada?

Carney caught on camera praising Michael Ma at Liberal fundraiser

Carney caught on camera praising Michael Ma at Liberal fundraiser

Last week floor-crossing MP Michael Ma called China's forced labour camps "hearsay."

www.junonews.com

Prime Minister Mark Carney praised the “fundamental Canadian values” of MP Michael Ma

Real elbows up kind of guy.

 

[ArmyRick]

Carney caught on camera praising Michael Ma at Liberal fundraiser

Carney caught on camera praising Michael Ma at Liberal fundraiser

Last week floor-crossing MP Michael Ma called China's forced labour camps "hearsay."

www.junonews.com

Real elbows up kind of guy.

I think the Michael Ma issue is what I would call a "slow burn", Carney is not feeling the effects of it YET. In time, especially with lots of other little failures or very weak performative promises, its gonna come to back to haunt him.

 

[Eaglelord17]

The well known elitist political power block in Canadian society centred around Ottawa?

Oh hell yeah, it's a thing ... probably before the whole 'Upper and Lower Canada' thing too...

Laurentian elite - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Particularly cemented in once the requirement for bilingualism became mandatory. 18% of the country gets to control all the upper jobs and many of the lower level government jobs.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Curious. How many here buy into the theory of "the Laurentian elite" and its alleged influence on Ottawa and thus Canada?

Any theory of some kind of elite group can just as easily be explained by spontaneous order (groups of people who respond to incentives in a way that looks coordinated). That still leaves room for a lot of common-or-garden collusion, such as nepotism and favour-swapping.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Saying something (again) doesn't make it true

More people report to non knowledge- work/laptop jobs within 10-15 minute by foot or transit of Union Station And 610 bay there are people in most Canadian towns/cities. Bank street/Tunney's not quite as massive but still huge. Quebec metro back to Toronto scale.

Sure. Are they really prospective inter-city HSR commuters?

Toronto to Montreal or Quebec city trips fit the white collar /leisure dichotomy.

Uh-huh.

But the peterborough to Toronto-Ottawa, Ottawa to Montreal, and trois riviere-Montreal sub legs create viable transit based commutes and have potential to merge labour markets

Here we are in the fuzzy middle. What kind of labour?

 

[IKnowNothing]

Sure. Are they really prospective inter-city HSR commuters?

Yes. Many are already intra-city transit commuters, or inter-city ppv commuters. Those with decent GO options are all ready inter-city transit consumers.

 

[ArmyRick]

Any theory of some kind of elite group can just as easily be explained by spontaneous order (groups of people who respond to incentives in a way that looks coordinated). That still leaves room for a lot of common-or-garden collusion, such as nepotism and favour-swapping.

Think back to the former SNC-Lavalin basically asking for a favour from PM JT, and then setting off that whole affair (which i still insist was a slow burn for the LPC), would the head of then SNC-Lavalin been pert of the Laurentian Elite? Enough power to ask the Prime Minister for a pretty big ask favour. That is only one example.

What about Justin's good buddy, Stephen Bronfman? A very wealthy philanthropist (eek, good intentions the road to hell thing), environmentalist (be suspect of these types with loads of money) and very heavily involved with managing the LPC. Would he count as the Laurentian Elite?

There is probably a lot more examples. John Ibbitson (I don't agree with everything he writes) had a reason he was willing to go to print on this issue.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Enough power to ask the Prime Minister for a pretty big ask favour.

The power to lobby for corporate welfare covers pretty much all large corporations.

 

[ArmyRick]

The power to lobby for corporate welfare covers pretty much all large corporations.

I get that, but thats a ballsy ask (literally asking for the law to be f#cked), or did Trudeau owe someone some favours? That one incident blew up in the media, how many of these situations are going undetected?

Many corporations would know their limits.

Google searching "Laurentian Elite" shows many journalist discuss it from both sides of the aisle.

 

[YZT580]

I'm confident that given the tendency of big projects to massively overrun cost and schedule, capital costs will be much higher than forecast. I'm confident that given the political reluctance to set fares high enough to cover operating costs, the relevant authorities will be scrambling to find other sources of money, which includes dipping into other pots, which includes other components of transit controlled by an authority. I'm confident that the forecasted economic figures provided by boosters are based on the most optomistic assumptions they can justify, and that the results will be lesser.

A lot of money, not necessarily where it will produce the most utility, sunk into one risk.

and it is all borrowed

 

[Brad Sallows]

and it is all borrowed

Borrowing for actual nuts-and-bolts investment can make sense. Unfortunately it's on top of a lot of borrowing for consumption, and ... dollars are fungible. Also unfortunately, the cost of something properly includes the cost of financing. So whatever fraction of, say, a $90B HSR is publicly-funded, is costing that amount plus its proportionate share of debt servicing; and, for now federal government debt servicing appears to extend out forever...