Liberal (Minority/Majority) Government 2025 - ???

[Altair]

Approval of Carney government rises to 64%; 78% believe arrangement with China on canola and cars was the right thing to do.

Two thirds think the Conservatives should replace Poilievre, including 27% of Conservative voters.

bruce728.substack.com

In our survey we probed on the Prime Minister’s meeting with President Xi of China and the reduction of tariffs on canola and EV’s. The question we asked was “The Prime Minister recently met with the Chinese president and announced an agreement to reduce tariffs, which will result in some increased canola sales to China and some Chinese electric vehicles being sold in Canada. Based on what you heard or read was this the right thing to do or the wrong thing to do for Canada?”

A total of 78% said they felt it was the right thing to do including 77% in the prairie provinces, and 75% in Ontario. A majority (56%) of those who voted Conservative last year also believe it was the right step, as did 84% of NDP voters and 85% of BQ voters.

A stunning 79% say “I feel overwhelmed by the world as it is today”, including 83% among women and 85% among those under 30. People fear “things will never again feel settled in the world” (78%) and 65% “expect there will be a world war in the next 10 years”. 80% feel “America can no longer be trusted”. This includes 86% of Conservative voters.

I know another topic that has widespread support that Carney could announce, a topic that goes along the lines of America can no longer be trusted.

 

[lenaitch]

Has Transport Canada or the US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration approved any Chinese EVs yet?

Not that I have heard, but I don't know if any have been submitted for evaluation. If a market is closed to you, why would you bother? I have no clue regarding the process, how long it would take or how much it would cost.

I know CF Moto, a Chinese manufacturer of motorcycles, ATVs, quads, etc. is now in both the Canadian and US markets.

 

[Brad Sallows]

I don’t mind that part. I would love to see that wipe his smug grin off his face and make him destitute.

He can afford it. The smug one also has X, SpaceX, Neuralink, an AI, etc. Presumably he has shares in some of them.

Many of his employees and their families couldn't shrug it off as easily.

It's impressive how much hate he attracts over his association with Trump given everything else he does.

 

[Halifax Tar]

I know CF Moto, a Chinese manufacturer of motorcycles, ATVs, quads, etc. is now in both the Canadian and US markets.

When the CF MOTO ATVs first hit the market they were cheap trash. But they have come a long way. Good friend has a SxS by them. It's been in the shop, but nothing more than my Yammy has.

 

[HavokFour]

I still maintain that Carney and the LPC aren't going to risk it on a spring election.

Federal Tracker: Liberals Widen Lead to 8, 42% to 34%

January 26 (Toronto, ON) – A new Liaison Strategies national survey finds the Liberals continuing to pull away from the Conservatives, widening their lead to eight points. Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals lead with 42% to the Conservatives' 34%, with the NDP at 10% and the Bloc...

press.liaisonstrategies.ca

Especially more now seeing how mobile the PM plans to be in 2026.

Carney’s 2026 travel plans in search of trade

Mark Carney has been circling the globe on government aircraft since becoming prime minister — part of his efforts to secure new trade links and investment to double non-U.S. exports in the next decade.

www.ctvnews.ca

 

[Altair]

I still maintain that Carney and the LPC aren't going to risk it on a spring election.

Federal Tracker: Liberals Widen Lead to 8, 42% to 34%

January 26 (Toronto, ON) – A new Liaison Strategies national survey finds the Liberals continuing to pull away from the Conservatives, widening their lead to eight points. Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals lead with 42% to the Conservatives' 34%, with the NDP at 10% and the Bloc...

press.liaisonstrategies.ca

Especially more now seeing how mobile the PM plans to be in 2026.

Carney’s 2026 travel plans in search of trade

Mark Carney has been circling the globe on government aircraft since becoming prime minister — part of his efforts to secure new trade links and investment to double non-U.S. exports in the next decade.

www.ctvnews.ca

Remember all those posts about how the LPC and Carney was going to collapse 9-12 months in as he couldn't get deals done?

I remember.

I'm reminded of that meme.

 

[brihard]

I still maintain that Carney and the LPC aren't going to risk it on a spring election.

Federal Tracker: Liberals Widen Lead to 8, 42% to 34%

January 26 (Toronto, ON) – A new Liaison Strategies national survey finds the Liberals continuing to pull away from the Conservatives, widening their lead to eight points. Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals lead with 42% to the Conservatives' 34%, with the NDP at 10% and the Bloc...

press.liaisonstrategies.ca

Especially more now seeing how mobile the PM plans to be in 2026.

Carney’s 2026 travel plans in search of trade

Mark Carney has been circling the globe on government aircraft since becoming prime minister — part of his efforts to secure new trade links and investment to double non-U.S. exports in the next decade.

www.ctvnews.ca

Not sure why there’s talk of a spring election… He’s got no real reason to. I suspect it’s wishful thinking by people who want him to pull the trigger early and risk an unfavourable result.

He’ll govern with what he’s got so long as he can do so effectively, until and unless it becomes very clear that the LPC could go to the polls and come out with a clear majority. He’s not gonna chance it for a ‘could do either way’.

We’re also days away from the CPC convention and their leadership review. Very little or quite a lot could happen in the wake of that. Presuming Poilievre prevails - which I believe he will - that will be an occasion for any current CPC MPs who remain in doubt of his leadership to assess their own futures with the party in whatever form that may take.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Remember all those posts about how the LPC and Carney was going to collapse 9-12 months in as he couldn't get deals done?

I remember.

Sounds like the Mandela Effect.

 

[PPCLI Guy]

Remember all those posts about how the LPC and Carney was going to collapse 9-12 months in as he couldn't get deals done?

I remember.

 

[MilEME09]

Polls swinging like a pendulum

https://twitter.com/x/status/2015757595554742468

 

[daftandbarmy]

Sounds like this guy is working on his next TED talk...

Simon Lancaster on Instagram: "Thanks for all the dozens of messages about Mark Carney’s speech. 😂Here’s my analysis. Sorry it’s a bit late. Life’s busy! Anyway, I got up extra early on a Sunday morning to prepare this so I hope you enjoy! If you do,

66K likes, 1,915 comments - thespeechwriter1 on January 25, 2026: "Thanks for all the dozens of messages about Mark Carney’s speech. 😂Here’s my analysis. Sorry it’s a bit late. Life’s busy! Anyway, I got up extra early on a Sunday morning to prepare this so I hope you enjoy! If you do, please...

www.instagram.com

 

[brihard]

Polls swinging like a pendulum

https://twitter.com/x/status/2015757595554742468

As always, 338 remains a useful site for viewing larger trends across multiple polling companies. It’ll remain to be seen if this Liaison poll is an outlier or merely signalling a trend early. I wouldn’t be surprised at a bump favourable to LPC after the Davos speech, but I’d be surprised if it were that much.

 

[ArmyRick]

Before anyone wets themselves prematurely with excitement on Canada-China trade, or keeps saying "nostradamus" over and over again,

Carney says Canada not pursuing free trade deal with China as Trump threatens 100% tariffs

Trump's rhetoric on Truth Social contrasts with what he said after the agreement between Ottawa and Beijing: "If you can get a deal with China, you should do that."

www.cnbc.com

To be honest, I don't Carney is the mastermind some make him out to be, and if getting Donald Trump to say stupid shit is his strategy going into the election this year (both left and right political pundits are sure its happening), that strategy will wear out real quick. Also note, many saying Carney does not want the new NDP leader to get any traction (You know where those votes will come from)

 

[dapaterson]

As always, 338 remains a useful site for viewing larger trends across multiple polling companies. It’ll remain to be seen if this Liaison poll is an outlier or merely signalling a trend early. I wouldn’t be surprised at a bump favourable to LPC after the Davos speech, but I’d be surprised if it were that much.

Alternatively, if that is a valid indication of the swing, it suggests things are very volatile and could swing back just as quickly.

 

[ArmyRick]

I stand by what I said, we are still in the wild west of Canadian politics. Each day or week, an event changes the polls faster than the weather in the maritimes.

 

[ArmyRick]

Another interesting take I have heard from several political pundits (one of them being Warren Kinsella) is that Carney wants to unload more of the Trudeau crowd. The far, far left crowd that will die before they see a new pipeline, or basically never want anything built.

Carney is right to get rid of these unproductive idiots but he risk fracturing his Liberal coalition. A "rupture" so to speak.

 

[Altair]

Sounds like the Mandela Effect.

I have receipts.

 

[Altair]

Before anyone wets themselves prematurely with excitement on Canada-China trade, or keeps saying "nostradamus" over and over again,

Carney says Canada not pursuing free trade deal with China as Trump threatens 100% tariffs

Trump's rhetoric on Truth Social contrasts with what he said after the agreement between Ottawa and Beijing: "If you can get a deal with China, you should do that."

www.cnbc.com

To be honest, I don't Carney is the mastermind some make him out to be, and if getting Donald Trump to say stupid shit is his strategy going into the election this year (both left and right political pundits are sure its happening), that strategy will wear out real quick. Also note, many saying Carney does not want the new NDP leader to get any traction (You know where those votes will come from)

I never said free trade with China.

I said drop EV tariffs, build Chinese EVs here, sell canola to China.

Which Carney did.

Nostradamus.

 

[Altair]

Mod removed post.

Chinese importer buys first Canadian canola cargo in months after Carney visit, Reuters sources say

A Chinese importer bought one Panamax cargo of about 60,000 metric tons of Canadian canola shortly after Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit to Beijing last week, two traders with direct knowledge of the deal told Reuters on Monday.

www.bnnbloomberg.ca

BEIJING/SINGAPORE- A Chinese importer bought one Panamax cargo of about 60,000 metric tons of Canadian canola shortly after Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit to Beijing last week, two traders with direct knowledge of the deal told Reuters on Monday.

About that.

 

[ArmyRick]

Chinese importer buys first Canadian canola cargo in months after Carney visit, Reuters sources say

A Chinese importer bought one Panamax cargo of about 60,000 metric tons of Canadian canola shortly after Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit to Beijing last week, two traders with direct knowledge of the deal told Reuters on Monday.

www.bnnbloomberg.ca

About that.

Read that article before you shove it out there. Its Canola, as in SEED not oil. WAY LESS money. and its not a large shipment, month after month. Thats what we need if Canada is dumb enough to keep growing so much Canola (and again make ourselves dependent on China).

You are known for knee jerk responses, and this is one of them, Its not the win you think it is. Do more than a five minute google search before responding.