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Liberal (Minority/Majority) Government 2025 - ???

PrairieFella said:
Waiting to see if the leader will stay before crossing - thats about as clear as day that its an internal problem with Poilievre. PCs realigning to the Red Tory camp as opposed to Blue Liberals.
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Not saying this smugly, but rather just to note that a few of us saw things potentially playing out this way or something that looks like it:

brihard said:
I could imagine a course of events where the CPC vote to keep Poilievre as leader, and that itself ends up cited by one or more disaffected MPs as a final trigger event pushing them to cross. I.e., the CPC refuses to change course so they’ve had enough.

PM Carney would probably be tickled pink to both get his majority AND have the CPC confirm Poilievre as continued leader. Politically, he would probably prefer that to the CPC sucking back, reassessing, and picking someone new who may be more effective. I could even literally see him asking other crossers to check fire until after the leadership review confirms Poilievre.
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Remius said:
Time for the CPC to admit they have a problem.
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Yeah but they just decided a couple weeks ago that they’re cool with it.

Two floor crossings should have been viewed as a concerning indicator of a leadership issue. Two floor crossings, a confirmation of current leadership, and then a third is an unmistakable and significant problem.
 
brihard said:
Yeah but they just decided a couple weeks ago that they’re cool with it.
Click to expand...

To be fair, only those that travelled to Calgary and paid the $1000 $999 entry fee decided.

EDIT: Corrected price, it was also $450 each for youth delegates.
 
Matt Jeneroux’s statement released on social media a short time ago. To be clear, he will no longer be resigning his seat but instead will continue to sit indefinitely as a Liberal.

IMG_8422.jpeg
 
I am really not sure how its anything but hubris that's keeping PP in play anymore.

I still refuse to put my X beside the LPC, but I don't think if an election were called today with PP at the helm of the CPC I would give them my X. I would probably go PPC or spoiled ballot.
 
MilEME09 said:
And i believe after freeland is replaced this will mean a majority gov

PM Carney says Conservative MP Jeneroux crossing the floor to the Liberals

www.ctvnews.ca

Poilievre says Jeneroux ‘betrayed’ his constituents

In a move Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is calling a betrayal, Conservative MP Matt Jeneroux is joining the Liberal caucus.
www.ctvnews.ca www.ctvnews.ca
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I imagine this is Pierre's staffers right now.
Aaron Paul He Cant Keep Getting Away With This GIF by Breaking Bad


Pierre seemed to have no issue over the years with liberals crossing to the conservatives, it's only an issue now they're leaving him. I don't understand how he has a strong following, I've voted primarily conservative (disclosure: voted for JT in '15, and Carney in the last one) and I don't like him. My lifelong conservative father (farmer and small business owner type) voted liberal in the last election after say, and I quote, "I fucking hate that guy" about Pierre. He's got his own weird personality cult that I do not understand but it's clearly not resonating with everyone anyone outside that circle.

RangerRay said:
He’ll be leading the “Pierre is woke!” faction.
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He held hands with Mark Carney, of course he's woke. Jivani has a solid lock on all of Canada with his 'I'm best friends with JD Vance and Trump actually loves us, this whole mess is really our fault' shtick. I'd love to see the result of that election - I think Carney could even take the non-separatist part of Alberta at that point.
 
Seyek said:
I imagine this is Pierre's staffers right now.
Aaron Paul He Cant Keep Getting Away With This GIF by Breaking Bad


Pierre seemed to have no issue over the years with liberals crossing to the conservatives, it's only an issue now they're leaving him. I don't understand how he has a strong following, I've voted primarily conservative (disclosure: voted for JT in '15, and Carney in the last one) and I don't like him. My lifelong conservative father (farmer and small business owner type) voted liberal in the last election after say, and I quote, "I fucking hate that guy" about Pierre. He's got his own weird personality cult that I do not understand but it's clearly not resonating with everyone anyone outside that circle.



He held hands with Mark Carney, of course he's woke. Jivani has a solid lock on all of Canada with his 'I'm best friends with JD Vance and Trump actually loves us, this whole mess is really our fault' shtick. I'd love to see the result of that election - I think Carney could even take the non-separatist part of Alberta at that point.
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He in fact voted against a bill in 2012 that would have seen floor crossers either sit as independents or go straight to a by-election if they intended to join another party.

C-306 (41-1) - LEGISinfo - Parliament of Canada

C-306 (41-1) - LEGISinfo - Parliament of Canada
www.parl.ca www.parl.ca
 
Remius said:
Time for the CPC to admit they have a problem.
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Can't be done. IMO the problem is well past the point of being strategic/tactical/messaging what have you. It's existential.

Literal Maple MAGA (Canadian's that like Trump and would prefer Canada to be more like Trump's America) make up like a 3rd of the CPC voter base.

Figurative Maple MAGA (Canadian's that are wholly captured by Poilievre's MAGA like info machine, legitimately like what he's brought to the table so far, and would reject a pivot to moderation as a betrayal) make up the majority of the party membership, and control a significant portion of the party apparatus.

Not accounting for the overlap between the two groups, it's getting increasingly difficult to reconcile a platform and party identity that satisfies members of the above while being tolerable to conservative leaning non-members.
 
HavokFour said:
Today isn't a good day for Pierre.

nationalpost.com

Michael Taube: Doug Ford's daughter lets slip he may run for Conservative leader 'at some point'

Krista Haynes' podcast banter revives long-standing rumors of Ford jumping to federal Conservative leadership — if Poilievre falters
nationalpost.com nationalpost.com
Archive
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NCE - Not Conservative Enough (according to many supporters of Team Blue I deal with).
lenaitch said:
I'm not sure how the rest of the country would sidle up to his 'my friends' populist schtick.
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As opposed to the "still learning to not be the attack dog all the time" incumbent? On that front, I'd see people buy in.

On the other hand, if he's serious about wanting to grab the brass ring for Team Blue Ottawa Franchise, he needs to be more convincing about "seriousness/gravitas" -- wanting to be a national instead of a provincial leader. There's public info as of last summer saying he's back to taking French post-COVID ...
1771451388305.png
... (source) so we'll have to see.
 
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