Well Ex,
Since no one else seems to want to play with you, I will. ;D
I think it all depends upon how much you're budgeting for procurement going forward.
Here were my "pulled-out-of-butt" estimates:
..................................2007.......2008.......2009......2010......2011......2012......2013.....2014.....2015
Current Commitments
Arctic Ice Breakers(6)....$50.......$100.......$300......$300......$300......$300......$300.....$300.................
JSS(3)..........................$50........$100.......$200......$200.....$200......$200......$200.....$200.................
Victoria Refits................$25.........$25........$25........$25....................................................................
Recommended Commitments
Additional Cyclones (6)........................................................$100.....$100.......$100......$100...............
FELEX(12).....................$50.........$100......$200......$200......$200.....$200.......$200.....$200......$200=>
BHS(1+).................................................................................$0........$0...........$0........$0.....$ 200=>
Notes:
1) Arctic Ice Hardened Corvettes - Modify design to carry Cyclone. Cyclone becomes primary weapons delivery system. Remainder of surveillance and weapons systems are minimal. Prefer to build in Atlantic Canada as economic stimulus is badly needed.
2) JSS - I still prefer the idea of separate LPD/AOR's, but I think the reality is the system needs to be combined due to public perception. Again, Atlantic Canada build would be preferable. Strategically, I think we should be able to keep at least one shipyard running at all times with smart procurement planning.
3) Victoria Re-Fits - I know many guys keep telling me about how important submarines are, but this purchase still confuses me to no end as the Victoria is not fast enough submerged to escort our surface vessels where enemy submarines could be a threat, which leaves them in the role of ambush killer. My problem is what are we hunting? Spanish fishing boats in the Grand Banks? If you want to monitor fishing violations, use a light patrol aircraft. To use a 48-crew submarine to do fisheries patrosl is incredibly expensive overkill. Now, if we're eventually talking about procuring (4) nuclear submarines that can act as battle group escorts as well as having a land-attack capability, then I can see an ROI arguement.
4) FELEX - Simply put, I think given the age of the CPF's, the cost associated with SCSC at this time is too high given other more urgent needs. As such, I would move forward with the FELEX project. As I'm unqualified to speak on details such as hull extensions or radar upgrades, I'll leave that to others to debate. The one thing I will continue to argue is that the 20mm Phalanx worries the everloving hell out of me (specifically the physics of a 20mm projectile against an evading supersonic target), and would much prefer to see an upgrade to SEA-RAM. One thought I'd like to throw out there is that IF the current hull is incapable of much upgrading due to weight concerns, perhaps we could split FELEX into (2) batches. Batch 1 would be the air defence and C&C variant, and would be stripped of its non-essential task-specific gear to focus on new radar and SAM's. Batch 2 would be the ASW, ASuW variant which would be stripped of Anti-Air Equipment (with the exception of the aforementioned SEA-RAM), and carry Harpoon (including a land attack variant) as well as the UUV's that you mentioned earlier (and totally agree with you, by the way). In such a fashion you end up with pair of vessels that together provide a great deal more capability that two identical "jack of all trades" frigates.
5) BHS - Even with JSS, I'd still like to see a dedicated LHD as it would for the first time provide an ability to support troops inland. Now whether than means AH-1Z or F-35B, I don't know, but I think it's a force multiplier that should be explored. Note, this construction would dovetail into the same shipyard building the JSS.
Matthew.
