Oldgateboatdriver said:
And, as I have explained before in various threads, the decision to carry muddy boots at sea is not the Navy's, but our political masters. And it seems that every time they look at what it implies and would cost, they back off.
In my opinion, OGBD hit it squarely on the head.
I would like to have the Canadian Task Group centered on an Expeditionary Warfare Ship (like Mistral or Canberra) with robust service and support (like JSS or JSS light) and proper escorts (my preference would be all the escorts the same, with AAW and ASW capability, but ColinP and OGBD have gone a long way to convince me that it is in fact a dedicated AAW ship with the Maritime Commander embarked and a couple of ASW escorts). That capability should be duplicated on each coast, and the combination of one expeditionary, one JSS, and one JSS light would mean we should always have 2 of the three available. For availability reasons then it means 4 AAW ships (so you don't have to move them coast to coast to fill holes), an absolute minimum of 6 ASW ships (it's not so low because it really covers the need, but something has to give), and 4 subs. For that I'd give up the Kingstons and let AOPs cover the gap (again, because unfortunately something has to give).
As a taxpayer, if we had such a capability, I'd like to see it robustly forward deployed, conducting exercises with our Allies. Say, one TG (as small as one Expeditionary, JSS, or JSS light, plus one escort) forward all of the time, with the remainder of the TG ready to join. With that number of hulls you'd need to rotate ship to shore quite aggressively.
But, what gives on the Army side: that is roughly one Battalion(-) plus Combat Support and Combat Service Support per coast. That's a minimum of 4 in the rotation assuming only one Coast is deployable at any given time; more if you want to be able to routinely surge both coast. And remember, they would actually be routinely deployed.
That's a third of the Army: I would again take that hit and reorg the Army around 3 major capabilities: a light airborne/airmobile 4 battalion force, a medium sea mobile and insertable (but not full amphibious assault ie kick in the door) 4 battalion force, and a heavy (ie armoured) 4 battalion force. Each battalion would be all arms; the Army knows how to organize them. Not that unless we go to war that means one battalion of each force is always available.
And then we need to think about the Air Force as well. Currently there are two squadrons of MH, one on each coast, which don't embark. That would literally have to double, and each of those squadrons would no longer be just MH; they would have an MH flight for the escorts, a littoral lift flight for the Expeditionary ship, probably an UAV flight, and in a perfect world an Fire Support (ie AH) flight. At the very minimum that means bringing the number of Cyclones up to 50 (from 28), but still only having 28 MH mission sets (maybe that could be removed and installed on any airframe).
As an aside, if you were going to get AH to support littoral fire support, you may as well put some in the other force squadrons as well. Could we replace the 412s with AH-1Ys and UH-1Zs built in Maribel?
Based on my exposure to SCTF, something along these lines was exactly what Hillier was envisioning. Only real differences from my understanding is the whole concept of JSS Light is very new, and AHs weren't in the mix (but the concern over littoral fire support was already understood). And it wasn't affordable... the Olympics allowed it to go quietly.
OK, so that's not affordable, what about the lighter option, around Enforcer. So, let's say four of them in rotation:
- still going to need roughly the same escort force
- still going to need roughly the same support force, so let's keep it at two Berlins and two Davies build
- still going to lead, an albeit lighter, Battalion, so the Army reorg is the same
- still going to need to go to two squadrons of helos on each coast, but might get it down to around 44
Now your not really capable of doing Expeditionary Littoral Maneuver, except with robust support of other nations. still not a bad capability.
But nope, still too expensive for the government (especially this government).
OK, how about 2-3; everything starts to shrink:
- AAW escorts can come down to 2-3 as well
- 2-3 support ships (make them all the Davies build to save money; in other words, get Enforcers instead of Berlins)
- down to 40 helos total, maybe in the existing two squadrons, or maybe one deployable squadron added
- But we still have the problem of re-org the Army...
So, now we are at 2-3 JSSs (Berlins), and:
- if the stars align, 1-2 Davies build
- 2-3 AAW ships
- 6-10 ASW escorts
- 4 subs
- 28 helos, but no dedicated littoral lift or fire support
- can sort of embark on the Berlins, but not organized around it.
ie, exactly what the plan is.
Although I'd prefer (and as a taxpayer would be willing to help pay for) any of the options earlier in the list, the reality is it is that last option (built around a JSS, which is really just a replacement AOR) that the government is willing to support.