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New Canadian Shipbuilding Strategy

  • Thread starter Thread starter GAP
  • Start date Start date
Yes. Considering isn't doing - and unnecessarily anchoring on decisions made under a fundamentally different problem set: different threat environment, different constraints, different timeline requirements, different solution options- is objectively bad strategic planning and leadership, a seriously myopic approach to decision making. The answers to what the CDX* needs to be, can be, ends up being, how many we need, how many we can have, and how many Rivers we need, are all interdependent.
Canada settled on 15 RCDs when the world seemed a lot safer. Seems like the solution in a more dangerous world isn't cutting your bare minimum number of world class destroyers...

I get what you're trying to propose, but it just doesn't make sense for the RCN to lose capability just to add a few more hulls.

Australia is trying to make budget room for SSNs, so they have to make cuts elsewhere. In their case, cutting surface ship capability in favor of SSNs makes some sense. The US is looking to get more constabulary presence around the world, so going with a less capable frigate makse sense for them. It frees the ABs to be the escorts they were always intended to be.
 
Canada settled on 15 RCDs when the world seemed a lot safer. Seems like the solution in a more dangerous world isn't cutting your bare minimum number of world class destroyers...

I get what you're trying to propose, but it just doesn't make sense for the RCN to lose capability just to add a few more hulls.

Australia is trying to make budget room for SSNs, so they have to make cuts elsewhere. In their case, cutting surface ship capability in favor of SSNs makes some sense.
I guess what I'm saying/asking is - is it the bare minimum of world class destroyers or was it the bare minimum of combatants for which said destroyer design was chosen for a consistent fleet for peacetime sustainment/ logistical/efficiency reasons

Did they cut net surface capability? Or will the proliferation of the less capable Mogami hulls mean that more of their Tier 1's are available for tier 1 taskings at any given time, with the volume of Tier 2's allowing them to better cover off the Tier 2 tasks than could be accomplished with the stretched too thin Tier 1's?
 
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Would this be 'admin/support' roles performed onshore? Like Dentists, Accountants, Nurses, Physiotherapists, Supply Clerks, Munitions maintenance workers?

That and schools, engineering support, HQs, security, ranges, admin support, food services... ect ect ect. For every sailor at sea I would estimate there are 3-4 shore ashore in support.

I also need shore billets to rotate sailors between sea and shore postings.
 
So the RCN needs to have a net increase of roughly 135 sailors a year for 20yrs. If we add in 12 CDC, another 2 JSS and a pair of sub recovery ships, back of the napkin means 245 new sailors a yr for the next 20yrs.
How long does it take for one of those new sailors to become DP1 qualified? Able to take on a leadership role? To be proficient enough to take on a training role? Take a command role?

210 crew on a River-class isn't made up of just Able/Leading/Master Seaman positions. Increased recruiting can generate enough total personnel to crew the ships on paper but it will also take time to develop sufficient numbers of higher ranks as well which also requires resolution of retention issues and more opportunities for existing personnel to advance in their careers.
 
How long does it take for one of those new sailors to become DP1 qualified? Able to take on a leadership role? To be proficient enough to take on a training role? Take a command role?

210 crew on a River-class isn't made up of just Able/Leading/Master Seaman positions. Increased recruiting can generate enough total personnel to crew the ships on paper but it will also take time to develop sufficient numbers of higher ranks as well which also requires resolution of retention issues and more opportunities for existing personnel to advance in their careers.
Completely understood. With the first River not coming online until the 2032ish timeframe, that's 6yrs out for someone who swore their Oath on Jan 1 2026. By the time the 2nd River comes along, that individual will be 8-9yrs in.

Retention goes hand in hand with recruitment.

One thing to note, the average attrition rate in 'white collar' positions is 10.5%/yr, Mgmt positions 6.6% and for 'blue collar' positions 11.5%.

So, in an organization of say 65,000 people, roughly, in the overall business world a yearly attrition rate of 9-10%/yr would be considered normal.
 
Canada settled on 15 RCDs when the world seemed a lot safer. Seems like the solution in a more dangerous world isn't cutting your bare minimum number of world class destroyers...

I get what you're trying to propose, but it just doesn't make sense for the RCN to lose capability just to add a few more hulls.

Australia is trying to make budget room for SSNs, so they have to make cuts elsewhere. In their case, cutting surface ship capability in favor of SSNs makes some sense. The US is looking to get more constabulary presence around the world, so going with a less capable frigate makse sense for them. It frees the ABs to be the escorts they were always intended to be.

Not just when the world seemed a lot safer but, more particularly, Canada seemed a lot safer. The perception was that war was something thar would happen "over there".

Now we are being forced to contemplate a real defense of the homeland and living up to our international responsibilities.

I suggest that those international responsibilities begin with covering off the areas that have been agreed as being our responsibilities in peace and war - the SRRs.

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What does it take to command those areas? Not just respond to an occasional incident but be able to sustain a sufficient presence, on our own, that we discourage challenges most of the time and defeat challenges all the time.

We shouldn't have to rely on the Americans to back us up. They have got their own direct respobsibilities.

The other thing that has changed since 2018 when we selected the Type 26, is the development of Atlantic Bastion, or at least the public announcement of the strategy by the UK.

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That butts up against, and overlaps with, our Halifax SRR. The Brits, Norwegians, Danes, Dutch and the rest of the Euros are going to be actively engaged east of Greenland.

We are responsible for the waters west of Greenland.
And we are also resonsible for the air space above those waters.

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.....

And all of this brings us back to Greenland.

Who secures Greenland?
And what does securing Greenland mean?

Even in WW2 Greenland was a contestable threat. The convoys would have had a lot tougher time of things if the Germans had been able to fly their Kondors from Greenland.

As it was shots were exchanged on Greenland dealing with weather stations established by the Germans, the same type of stations that were established in Canada.




Add in the ability of Gerrman subs to penetrate the St Lawrence to Rimouski


1768405880396.jpeg

And think what even a small team of people ashore can accomplish with today's technology.

And how many people does it take to secure our coasts, and Greenland's, against those pinpricks, and to dislodge them?

....

Are the RCD's the right keystone for those waters?

We are looking at subs, P8s, F35s, MQ-9s, JORNs, Light infantry battalions, helicopters, Hercs, Satellites, mines ant all sorts of UxVs operating in all domains.

And one old tanker can act as a Forward Operating Location for UxVs launched from elsewhere.
But do you even need to be that conspicuous? What can be accomplished from a hotel room?
 
As time goes on and the merger of the RCN and Canadian Coast Guard takes root I can see a potentially larger combined fleet with the CDC evolution being an opportunity to truly blend the RCN and CCG fleets. Hear me out.
Leadmark and other RCN publications have always alluded to a Surface combatant fleet of 24 major surface vessels.

I can see a future CDC adopting the Halifax sensor and weapon fit out in 9 full Military hulls. I can see the Coast Guard
building 6 of the CDC hulls with a military sensor suite and a fitted for but not with weapons fit. To be plunked in, Gulf war like, if needed. The 15 River Destroyers and 9 CDC would honor Leadmarks intention yet the 8 AOPS and 6 Coast Guard CDC will be our second tier constabulary fleet. Add in 12 Submarines and another 2 JSS with the 14 new Ice Breakers and that would finally give Canada a proper combined fleet. The RCN should also have plans to convert the 4 new CG Research ships into open Ocean CANTASS carriers. They can still fish of course.
 
We talk about 15 RCDs to maintain 5 at sea.
12 subs for 4 at sea.
6 AOPS for 4.
Etc.

What would it take to keep all those vessels at sea continuously for 6 years?
 
We talk about 15 RCDs to maintain 5 at sea.
12 subs for 4 at sea.
6 AOPS for 4.
Etc.

What would it take to keep all those vessels at sea continuously for 6 years?
A miracle...

Even in the depths of WWII, when navies were far larger and ships far less complex, no navy could keep the entire fleet at sea at once.
 
A miracle...

Even in the depths of WWII, when navies were far larger and ships far less complex, no navy could keep the entire fleet at sea at once.

Absolutely. But the aim was for all ships at sea all the time. 100% utilization, not 33%. Reality was probably somwhere in the 70 to 90% range with gaps filled by a constant stream of new builds that were continuously re-specced to meet changing demands.
 
Absolutely. But the aim was for all ships at sea all the time. 100% utilization, not 33%. Reality was probably somwhere in the 70 to 90% range with gaps filled by a constant stream of new builds that were continuously re-specced to meet changing demands.
Canadian corvettes were sent to sea missing a lot of important equipment and with 1-2 personal that had real sea time. In one incident the between a Corvette and U-boat, it was the Captains of each first command at sea, and thankfully it was the Canadian Corvette that won.
 
Canadian corvettes were sent to sea missing a lot of important equipment and with 1-2 personal that had real sea time. In one incident the between a Corvette and U-boat, it was the Captains of each first command at sea, and thankfully it was the Canadian Corvette that won.

Is there any reason to believe the next war won't look like the last war in that regard?
The next war, like the last war, and the Ukraine war, will see all sides doing what they can to win which means constantly doing more things and constantly doing new things.
 
There are anecdotes about Flower Class Corvettes proceeding from the building slips in Canada to the UK with their first convoy, and only receiving their main armament once they arrived in the UK. Light weapons - sure, but no deck gun....
 
There are anecdotes about Flower Class Corvettes proceeding from the building slips in Canada to the UK with their first convoy, and only receiving their main armament once they arrived in the UK. Light weapons - sure, but no deck gun....
I jave read the same, using wooden poles as "gun barrels" so it wasn't obvious that they had no real counter to a surfaced U-Boat apart from ramming.
 
So the RCN needs to have a net increase of roughly 135 sailors a year for 20yrs. If we add in 12 CDC, another 2 JSS and a pair of sub recovery ships, back of the napkin means 245 new sailors a yr for the next 20yrs.

Keep in mind that it's sailors from the right occupations, as well as experience and seniority, which is why reducing attrition is critical. Some of the 'new' people we would need in 10 years take 15-20 years to grow.


That and schools, engineering support, HQs, security, ranges, admin support, food services... ect ect ect. For every sailor at sea I would estimate there are 3-4 shore ashore in support.

I also need shore billets to rotate sailors between sea and shore postings.

Don't forget civilian support at schools, repair facilities etc, as well as industrial capacity (companies, people and facilities). At schools, repair facilities, warehouses and jetties that don't exist, aren't under construction and we don't have land put aside for.

That includes repair facilities; we've already topped out shipyard repair capacity, and the few spots there are empty yards there is no longer trades sitting around to staff them.

The ATH refit in St. Catherines back around 2010 was a challenge for that reason, and that was back with a much healthier industrial base in the area. The electricians, pipefitters etc that came to the shipyard were talking then about being happy to find work in the area then, and a lot of them were planning on moving to find work, and there has been a lot of heavy industry in that area that disappeared completely and isn't coming back, so expect they've now moved (also retired/died, that was a long time ago)..
 
Keep in mind that it's sailors from the right occupations, as well as experience and seniority, which is why reducing attrition is critical. Some of the 'new' people we would need in 10 years take 15-20 years to grow.




Don't forget civilian support at schools, repair facilities etc, as well as industrial capacity (companies, people and facilities). At schools, repair facilities, warehouses and jetties that don't exist, aren't under construction and we don't have land put aside for.

That includes repair facilities; we've already topped out shipyard repair capacity, and the few spots there are empty yards there is no longer trades sitting around to staff them.

The ATH refit in St. Catherines back around 2010 was a challenge for that reason, and that was back with a much healthier industrial base in the area. The electricians, pipefitters etc that came to the shipyard were talking then about being happy to find work in the area then, and a lot of them were planning on moving to find work, and there has been a lot of heavy industry in that area that disappeared completely and isn't coming back, so expect they've now moved (also retired/died, that was a long time ago)..
The possible expanded capability in St John's will be a welcomed addition if it goes through.
 
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