Halifax Tar
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New Canadian Shipbuilding Strategy
- Thread starter GAP
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Does anyone know what's next on the build list for Seaspan after the last JSS is out the door for sea trials and the current heavy icebreaker progresses to the point that the ability to start the next ship occurs? Will it be these '16' medium icebreakers that are on the books?
Swampbuggy
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That’s what I understood it to be. Those are the MEMTV’s?
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You can find as much public information here Multi-Purpose Icebreakers - Seaspan
snip:
Comprised of an External Communications Tower and an electronics testing laboratory, the new Land-Based Test Site at Vancouver Shipyards forms a critical part of our strategic initiative to develop an in-house Electronic Systems Integrator for Polar, MPI and beyond, allowing us to do much of our vessel-bound electronics testing on-site and on schedule. Its core purpose is to test critical shipboard systems like communications, navigation and radar before they’re installed.
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I believe so.
Declared ships still to be built as part of NSS
RCN
- 15 River class Destroyers
- Builder: - Irving
- Timelines: - 2025 through to very late 2040's with completion of the 15th by 2050 at the latest
- Builder: - Irving
Harry DeWolf Class - First of six ships commissioned in 2021, last of the six in 2026. Harry DeWolf will be approximately 25+yrs old before the final River class destroyer is commissioned. There would be a pretty much an immediate need to have the HDW lead ship replacement begin immediately after the delivery of the 15th River class destroyer.
CGC
- 2 Heavy Icebreakers
- Builders: Davie and Seaspan
- Timelines: Davie 2030 - Seaspan 2032
- Builders: Davie and Seaspan
- 16 Medium Icebreakers
- Builder: Seaspan
- Timelines: Approximate start date of 2027 - unknown when the 16th vessel will be delivered, safe estimate would be 20+yrs from now
- Builder: Seaspan
- 6 'Program' Icebreakers
- Builder: Davie
- Timelines: Unknown
- Builder: Davie
Davie - Currently has an order book booked solidly for the next approximate 12-14yrs, putting their potential ability to take on additional work sometime after 2039
OFSV - Offshore Fisheries Science Vessels and OOSV - Offshore Oceanographic Science Vessel - First of the OFSV was commissioned in 2019 and the last two in 2020. The OOSV was commissioned in 2025. The OFSV's will be 27+yrs old and the OOSV 25yrs old by the time the final 16th Medium Icebreakers Seaspan is to have completed. There would be a pretty much an immediate need to have these ships' replacement begin immediately after the delivery of the final Medium Icebreaker.
Potential ships being discussed for the RCN
- 2 new JSS to round the JSS's out to 4
- Builder: Unknown
- Timelines: Unknown
- Funding: None
- Timelines: Unknown
- Builder: Unknown
- 16-20 new Corvettes - aka 'Minifax's'
- Builder: Unknown
- Timelines: Unknown at this time but banter speaks for the need 'sooner rather than later'
- Funding: None
- Timelines: Unknown at this time but banter speaks for the need 'sooner rather than later'
- Builder: Unknown
- 2 'Arctic Mobile Bases'
- Builder: Unknown
- Timelines: Unknown
- Funding: None
- Builder: Unknown
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I say buid 2 more JSS
I would be willing to bet you won't see any of those 3 ship classes. At least anytime soon.
Swampbuggy
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There’s also whatever replaces ORCA, though it could possibly be an Ontario Shipyards or similar sized company project
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Unless a new 4th builder is brought into the fold or the ships are built offshore, I don't see how its possible.
When its laid out plainly, it becomes evident that we actually have a need for a 4th builder/location.
If you add both the current list of confirmed CCG and RCN ships out:
- CCG - 3 OFSV, 1 OOSV, 16 Med IB, 2 Heavy IB, 6 Program IB and 2 AOPS, you've got 30 ships.
- RCN - 2 JSS, 6 AOPS and 15 Rivers, you've got 23 ships.
That's 53 ships across 3 yards. If I use some basic back of the napkin math and pick a number related to 'total time to build a vessel' from thin air, a complete guesstimate of say 2.5yrs on average per vessel and multiply that by the 53 ships, you come up with 2.5 X 53 = 132.5yrs of work. Divide that by 3, the number of shipyards and you come up with 44.16yrs. By my math, each ship builder has 44.16yrs of work assigned to them for their 1/3 ratio (not evenly applied in terms of number of ships per yard), of 53 ships to be built.
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Yes, I've left those completely out of the picture because for 100% certain that contract will not go to 1 of these 3 current builders. Those vessels will be well less than 400 tons.
Oldgateboatdriver
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No. Not yet. Let the RCN operate the first two for about 5 or 6 years to develop lessons learned and improvements worth pursuing lists. Then order two more that will happen to come on line as the first two become due, in turn, for their mid-life (after between 10 and 12 years in service). Then from that point on, build 2 new ones every 10 to 12 years apart to maintain four.
Not quite. You must take into account the fact that the RCN AOPS, the CG OFSV and OOSV are already completed and the two JSS and CG AOPS are nearing completion in the next year or two. That's 17 done out of your 53, or basically a third of the way there already. (I know. Amazing when you consider how much we all derided the strategy with our pessimism when it started). Then, you have to consider that the CG Multi-purpose vessels (the ones you call the medium icebreakers) are a flex item: It's up to 16 but final number and production schedule is subject to adjustments and could be less in the end, or spread over batches split by other orders in between.
There is also the fact that once Davie upgrades its facilities to the same current modern standards as the other two, their capacity (if sufficient personnel can be found, trained and retained) can be made to exceed that of the other two put together. You could even add the Ontario shipyard and Davie could exceed all three in term of capacity. That's just how large the shipyard is and how much wharf space and dry dock capacity it has. The only real issue with Davie is do they want to do so or are it's British owners more interested in building up their American yard and as a result, putting Davie in Quebec on the back burner.
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I doubt if there will be lessons learned for that ship or at least none of consequence. The RCN has extensively studied both the Berlin and Bonn which is the successor variant of the Berlin Class. I would agree waiting right now and this will only be viable when our available crewing has improved in the RCN to operate further vessels.
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I hear you and I would counter that the OFSV and OOSV (4 ships) where the lowest hanging fruit for us to build. Of all the ships, they are the smallest ships and easiest ships in virtually every aspect.
Going back to your analysis, to get to those 17 ships that you mention, (though by my count its not 17, its 8 AOPS, 3 OFSV, 1 OOSV and 2 JSS, which is 14) the total timeline from start to finish for those 14 ships would be 2015 to 2028 - a 13yr time period. All of those 14 ships will have been delivered by Seaspan and Irving, with Davie not being part of that equation.
The remaining 39 ships will overwhelming be the most complex of the 53, thus it will take them the longest time period to complete. Going back to my back of the napkin math of 44.16yrs of build per shipbuilder and backing out 13yrs of already elapsed time, spread across 3 builders, that would remove 4.33yrs of work from each builder. So 44.16 - 4.33 = 39.83 of remaining work available. Remember those numbers were just some back of a napkin guesses. Both Irving and Seaspan still basically have 22-24yrs of work ahead of them and they will deliver 33
The River class has stated that the last River will be commissioned by 2050. If we are very generous and move that down to 2048, we are still looking at a remaining 23yr total duration period. Again, the HDW was launched in 2021, by 2048 it will be 27yrs. The youngest Halifax is currently 30yrs and we are wringing our hands now about them.
I'm of the belief that we will build 16 of the medium Icebreakers because we will need to do. The CCG was neglected longer than the RCN and the butchers bill has come due and the expectation is that we need to mow our own lawn going forward.
I agree that Davie is a possible option for additional work - whether they help Seaspan's load on the 16 med IB in order to allow 2 more JSS be built earlier or take on the building of the 16-20 Minifax's if they occur - it will all hinge on their ability and decision to expand significantly their workforce, as you point out. Can they find and train another 1,600-2,100 skilled or semi-skilled French speaking workers? Million dollar question there. Irving and Seaspan have a significantly larger pool to fish from than Davie does. Could be less of an issue if Davie were based in Montreal where a person could manage to survive speaking only English if they had to, but Levis, forget it.
Ontario Shipyards is an unknown at this point. Numerous challenges is using them, but if we did, the Minifax's would likely be the most logical choice.
Oldgateboatdriver
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I concur on most of your points. Small exception: I lived in Quebec city for 9 years of my life, and Montreal and area for the rest. Davie doesn't have to employ French personnel exclusively. What they have to do is provide management that can address the French workers in their own language and make sure that all administration communications are primarily available in French. Finding people to do that in Quebec city is not that hard.
AS for the workers themselves, there is a small but vibrant English community in Quebec city, and for the rest of the population in general, if you show even the smallest inkling of trying to engage them with some French, they'll bend over backwards to try and accommodate you in English (not good English, but English nevertheless
). In my experience, it's in Montreal that you are more likely to encounter the jackass French speakers who will put down any English speaker who can't interact with them in French or refuses to do so.
P.S.: Yep! My bad on the math.
AS for the workers themselves, there is a small but vibrant English community in Quebec city, and for the rest of the population in general, if you show even the smallest inkling of trying to engage them with some French, they'll bend over backwards to try and accommodate you in English (not good English, but English nevertheless
). In my experience, it's in Montreal that you are more likely to encounter the jackass French speakers who will put down any English speaker who can't interact with them in French or refuses to do so.P.S.: Yep! My bad on the math.
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