North Korea style of negotiating?
- Thread starter Sandbag
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north korea is going to be a thorn in our side in the coming years.due to their proximity to china ,they know that we will never dear to meet them on the battlefield again,what with their updated weapon systems. all north koreans are under arms.and the have been taught to hate weasterns. .when the time comes china will back them,as their own weaponery has greatly improved.mostly because of trade with the west.due to our north america quest for lower prices on goods. when was the last time you went to a dept store and found made in canada label on it.i was in the food stre in my district and found that a majority of the frozen seafood that we are comusing is a product of china. the next time you are in the frozen fish section look very careful at the label an you will find product of china especially frozen alaskan pollock.even your favorite brand of highliner carries the china label,this also applies to ziggys brands. then you might wonder how is poor old china able to afford new weapons.the answer is simple. slinky
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jmackenzie_15
Guest
Sounds like old Kim is ready to go on a moments notice.Underground facilities and factories would make the NK a heck of alot harder to slow down their warmachine than did the Iraqis.I think a war in NK would be alot worse than in Iraq, mainly because the Koreans have been training for it and making preparation for one for years , and as much as possible.
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Peace_Keeper
Guest
Korea with the backing of China would be a unbelievable threat and to be frank would be a world war if confrontations with the US and allies broke out
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justin03 said:
Hate westerners? Whens the last time you were in North Korea to talk to any of the people? Or South Korea? I have many friends from Korea and most of them wish that they could be westerners. You can't say you seen North Koreans saying they hate westerners on tv since North Korea does not allow its people to even be filmed by any outside sources. I can speak Hanguk and they don't speak of Korea as north or south Korea, they say Korea and the only thing I read about hate is about the US. Many veiw the US as the reason why there is two different Korean countries but even then most would still come to North America if they had the chance.
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jmackenzie_15
Guest
atticus said:
South Koreans admire westernerns. However, we're talking about North Korea, who's leader, Kim Jong-Il absolutely despises America, has a military dictatorship over the country, has pictures of himself every place imaginable, and no doubt spreads propoganda about America like the plague through europe.I can guarantee that his population is taught to hate america.You also can't say this isnt true, as nobody is even allowed into the country unless you are a north korean.Immigration is closed and so is emmigration, so its fairly hard to say for certain what is really going on in there.
As for the article above, I don't doubt a single word of it.
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atticus said:
I don't know who you've been talking to but all my Korean friends make a point of identifying themselves as South Korean. One of my closest friends who has family from both sides has explained to me that he has never even seen half of his family because if he attempted to go to North Korea he'd be arrested on sight. Obviously North Koreans also make a big deal about differentiating north from south.
M
McAllister
Guest
Nk has 'The Bomb', but they don't have 'The Food'. Is it possible there might be a NK population uprising against Kim jong Il at the beginning of a war?
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Ghost said:
That might have something to do with the fact that the average Chinese soldier makes between 300 and 400 USD per month, whereas the average US soldier gets roughly 1800 USD per month. It also might have something to do with the fact that Chinese army units quite often involve themselves in local businesses in order to make up for lack of government spending.
And what the hell was the point of your post anyway?
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I'm no expert on the subject, and I can only speak from what I've read and the conclusions I've drawn on my own, but I think China would likely remain neutral in the event of a new Korean war. At worse, they would use the fact that US forces are tied up both in Iraq and in Korea, to invade Taiwan.
China is growing fast and is becoming a superpower, and I doubt they would throw that away just to help a backwards regime that's even worse than the Chinese government. The geopolitical situation has changed a lot since the end of the Korean War (or to be correct, since the armistice) and those changes seem to make it likely for China to keep out of Korea. They don't really have anything valuable in North Korea, and as has been demonstrated recently, they're becoming a bit aggressive towards them. (I believe there were rather heavy Chinese troop movements near the China-Korea border. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.)
On to North Korea, I think Pyongyang is just trying to provoke the US into a conflict. Kim Jung-Il might be a tad crazy, but I'm pretty sure he realizes that if he takes the first step, he'll be in much more trouble than if he lets the US attack him, and then reacts by invading (or trying to) South Korea. As was said in the Washington Quarterly (Who's Behind That Curtain? unveiling Potential Leverage over Pyongyang, by Michael Horowitz), Jung-Il and the rest of the elite are well off, and as long as the only people affected are the masses, it is doubtful any action will be taken. However, if the top of the government was to be affected (say, through severe restrictions, such as the ones North Korea has been warning against) then there would likely be a violent reaction.
As I said, China doesn't seem too ready to come to the aid of Kim Jung-Il's regime, and obviously Jung-Il would know that, so he would be more careful with his actions than if he had unconditional backing from Beijing.
What I think is the biggest problem, is that sooner or later actions will have to be taken against Pyongyang. Their bargaining strategies are always the same and are definately starting to be a problem, and their constant threats to the safety of other countries are, well, threatening, for lack of a better word. As the situation in North Korea deteriorates, (like the "anti-Kim" actions which were reported a little while ago) and Kim Jung-Il finds himself in more and more trouble and it becomes increasingly difficult for him to keep his leverage and his monetary gains, we might find ourselves facing a desperate foe.
Another thing we might think about, is the reactions of the North Korean people if the UN, US or other entity were to impose sanctions. These would undoubtedly affect the populace, and might lead to widespread famine. Therefore, there might be some kind of Iraq-type "insurrection" against the US invaders/liberators because of the perceived responsibility for the famine, or other calamity. We should also think about any North Korean who might decide to cooperate with the "coalition." They would probably face terrible fates if captured by the regime.
So, to recap:
These are just my opinions, but I'd like feedback on them.
China is growing fast and is becoming a superpower, and I doubt they would throw that away just to help a backwards regime that's even worse than the Chinese government. The geopolitical situation has changed a lot since the end of the Korean War (or to be correct, since the armistice) and those changes seem to make it likely for China to keep out of Korea. They don't really have anything valuable in North Korea, and as has been demonstrated recently, they're becoming a bit aggressive towards them. (I believe there were rather heavy Chinese troop movements near the China-Korea border. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.)
On to North Korea, I think Pyongyang is just trying to provoke the US into a conflict. Kim Jung-Il might be a tad crazy, but I'm pretty sure he realizes that if he takes the first step, he'll be in much more trouble than if he lets the US attack him, and then reacts by invading (or trying to) South Korea. As was said in the Washington Quarterly (Who's Behind That Curtain? unveiling Potential Leverage over Pyongyang, by Michael Horowitz), Jung-Il and the rest of the elite are well off, and as long as the only people affected are the masses, it is doubtful any action will be taken. However, if the top of the government was to be affected (say, through severe restrictions, such as the ones North Korea has been warning against) then there would likely be a violent reaction.
As I said, China doesn't seem too ready to come to the aid of Kim Jung-Il's regime, and obviously Jung-Il would know that, so he would be more careful with his actions than if he had unconditional backing from Beijing.
What I think is the biggest problem, is that sooner or later actions will have to be taken against Pyongyang. Their bargaining strategies are always the same and are definately starting to be a problem, and their constant threats to the safety of other countries are, well, threatening, for lack of a better word. As the situation in North Korea deteriorates, (like the "anti-Kim" actions which were reported a little while ago) and Kim Jung-Il finds himself in more and more trouble and it becomes increasingly difficult for him to keep his leverage and his monetary gains, we might find ourselves facing a desperate foe.
Another thing we might think about, is the reactions of the North Korean people if the UN, US or other entity were to impose sanctions. These would undoubtedly affect the populace, and might lead to widespread famine. Therefore, there might be some kind of Iraq-type "insurrection" against the US invaders/liberators because of the perceived responsibility for the famine, or other calamity. We should also think about any North Korean who might decide to cooperate with the "coalition." They would probably face terrible fates if captured by the regime.
So, to recap:
- China would likely remain neutral in the event of a renewed Korean conflict. At worse, they would take advantage of the situation to invade Taiwan.
- North Korea is trying to provoke the US into a conflict, instead of starting the conflict themselves.
- Kim Jung-Il is more likely than not going to find itself without support from China and other previous allies, in the event of a conflict. The most they could likely hope for is moral support.
- The deterioration of North Korea might lead to a conflict if nothing is done, and applying sanctions would most likely spark violent actions.
- We (as in, the Western countries) should be careful in applying sanctions to North Korea, as the populace might point fingers at "us" and be less likely to accept a regime change.
These are just my opinions, but I'd like feedback on them.
Frederick G, I enjoyed reading your opinions and have a couple of questions. First, you caution on the use of sanctions, but state earlier that "sooner or later actions will have to be taken..." What actions if sanctions are not an option? Second, we(the west) always see this as a potential conflict between two, possibly three actors: US, the North, and possibly China. Why is it that the collective we always seem to omit the 727000+ ROK forces....a rather formidable force, and very unlike the the 1950 ROK army? Finally what are your thoughts on Japan's interest in the peninsula? Remember, in Korea, (on both sides of the DMZ), IMHO there is still a great deal of latent post-occupation bad feelings from 60 years ago. Over to you.
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jmackenzie_15 said:
"However, we're talking about North Korea, who's leader, Kim Jong-Il absolutely despises America"
Yes, that is the North Korean leader who hates America along with all the other western countries.
"has pictures of himself every place imaginable"
State law that every building has one. Lately many have been breaking this law and passing around pro-west panthlets.
"I can guarantee that his population is taught to hate america.You also can't say this isnt true, as nobody is even allowed into the country unless you are a north korean"
I never said they weren't taught to hate america. Heck, going to school in Canada there is alot of anti-americanism going around (not that I'm part of it). As for travel to North Korea, I've been there. It does happen. Its just not very recomended. Especially if you look white like me. Your not allowed to take pictures of anything or really talk to anybody outside your group. You just do what you have to and leave. There is a couple tourist resorts somewhere in North Korea also. They are excluded from everything outside their resort though. If you do a search for Pyongyang on a site like expedia you can find the odd flight. Though if you are traveling to South Korea or really any other country around Korea the airplane has to make stops in places way south of the country like Vietnam.
48Highlander said:
What you quoted me on I meant that when I read a Korean newspaper or something on the internet they don't refer to North or South Korea very much, if ever. They just say Korea unless its talking about politics. Its surprising to me that you know many koreans (I'm acually jelous, I have nobody to speak to). At least in my part of Canada 99% of asians are Chinese (yes I can tell the difference between Japanese, Chinese and Korean anybody from another country just messes me up). South Koreans are not allowed into North Korea because they will be arrested just like you said, however if you work for certain companies (like say a textiles) you can get in for giving them free goods (like food and fabrics). This is at least how the group of Koreans I was with got in. Seeing the large amount of poverty that North Koreans live in I don't think they care about anything else other than just surviving from day to day.
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jmackenzie_15
Guest
"I never said they weren't taught to hate america. Heck, going to school in Canada there is alot of anti-americanism going around (not that I'm part of it)."
A few hippy teenagers and left wing politicians throw hissy fits when the US decides to do something they don't like.That is not 'anti americanism'.
In North Korea, the general populace is taught to hate america down to its very core, and fight them to the death should they invade or interfere with their living in any way.
Theres a big difference.
A few hippy teenagers and left wing politicians throw hissy fits when the US decides to do something they don't like.That is not 'anti americanism'.
In North Korea, the general populace is taught to hate america down to its very core, and fight them to the death should they invade or interfere with their living in any way.
Theres a big difference.
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atticus said:
Toronto has people of all ethinicities. When I first moved to Canada I though all asians were chinese. Now I can usually tell which country they're from with just a glance. I know enough Koreans and get enough exposure to the culture that I went and got a easy-korean-in-30-days type progam
Haven't gotten past a few basic phrases yet though.atticus said:
Corruption seems to work the same way in every nation
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Ah, I thought it would be Toronto. Don't they have a "Little Korea"? I think the trick to telling asians apart is by their eyes. Japanese have big eyes, Koreans almost look like they are squinting, and Chinese are in the middle but have rounder faces. I love reading and writing hangul. Its so easy. I think its probably the easiest asian writing system to learn since it is pretty much the only one that has an alphabet. Speaking it is a little bit harder to prounounce though. If you compare it to Japanese they are opposites. Japanese is easy to pronounce while hard to write and hangukeo is really easy to write and harder to pronounce.48Highlander said:Toronto has people of all ethinicities. When I first moved to Canada I though all asians were chinese. Now I can usually tell which country they're from with just a glance. I know enough Koreans and get enough exposure to the culture that I went and got a easy-korean-in-30-days type progam
48Highlander said:Corruption seems to work the same way in every nation
Hmm, I don't think I understand what you mean.
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Sandbag said:
I'm sorry, I wasn't very clear about that. What I meant is, we have to be cautious about using economical sanctions that have no backing. But, as I said, we'll eventually have to take actions. I'm a bit squeamish about advocating preemptive actions, but I think in this case the actions we would have to take could include a strike of North Korean military installations, if not an "invasion."
I guess the best way to act would be to have a larger military commitment to South Korea, which would be reasonable given the new war preparations of North Korea. Then, the UN or some other entity could impose sanctions (economically only, probably) and then, as the South Korean/US military would be in a better situation to defend themselves from/reply to an attack. Obviously, there would be collateral damage, but short of a unilateral invasion by the US/SK, that appears to be one of the best solutions.
Honestly I forgot about that, so thanks for pointing it out. I'm not very familiar with the ROK military, unfortunately, so it's a bit hard for me to evaluate how much of an impact they would have.
Assuming they are well-trained, and are able to fully cooperate with US forces, they would probably have a large impact on the war. BUT, that's a pretty big assumption. I have my doubts about the US commanders' confidence in Korean forces, and there would probably be some dissent between Korean and US commanders over operational planning.
I can't really go into further details, because I don't know enough about their military, but I'll try and find more info.
I think they're probably very concerned, especially with the latest development. However, because their constitution limits their armed forces to self-defence, it's unlikely they would participate in a military action against North Korea, except in logistical and medical support, or by letting allied forces use their ports and airfields. The only way I see Japan getting involved firsthand in the conflict is if Pyongyang manages to blitz their way across the South and they start threatening Japan through proximity.
Japan's third largest trading partner (after the US and China) is South Korea, so anything that might damage their economy would make Tokyo react. If Japan changes their constitution and builds up their armed forces, which is unlikely in a short time period, they might be able to take part in the hostilities, but for the time being they will look closely at it and hope for the best, I think.
About the occupation ressentment, I agree with your assessment, but since this is another area where I'm not very knowledgeable, I'm not gonna venture too far. I do think Koreans are probably not too happy with the Japanese, but if push comes to shove, I don't think there would be a massive anti-Japanese movement if Tokyo sends help. The only way I see Koreans opposing the Japanese is if the latter gets involved directly with the hostilities and doesn't leave after the conflict is over.
Thanks a lot for the feedback.
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atticus said:
You basically said you can get into the country if you give them free stuff. In many countries around the world, bribing officials isn't just accepted, it's expected. Customs agents can spend an hour looking over your passport, but $5 will get you through in 5 minutes. In first world nations it's not so widespread, but no matter where you go, money makes anything possible.
M
McAllister
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I agree with you there, Frederik G. China would stay out of the conflict. They have the largest foreign investment in the world and they can't afford to lose it.
