Attrition is expected to increase 2.21 National Defence data show that there is a large concentration of members in their later years of service who are approaching the time when they will be eligible for retirement. Approximately 50 percent of Regular Force personnel have 15 years of service or more (Exhibit 2.4); thus they are either already eligible to leave or will soon be. Because of the potential for a large number of military personnel to leave over the next five to ten years, National Defence is predicting that attrition will rise. As the exhibit shows, there are few members behind those leaving to fill in the gap.
2.22 National Defence data show that attrition rates are also higher than average in the early years when members are getting initial training and adjusting to military life. Currently, about 31 percent of Regular Force personnel have less than six years of service. Since so many members are in their early years, the average rate of attrition is expected to increase in coming years.
2.23 The combined factors of higher rates of attrition and larger numbers of people in the early and later periods of their service are expected to lead to a higher overall attrition in coming years. While attrition in the Regular Force has averaged six percent since 2000, National Defence expects an increase over the next 10 years.
2.24 For non-commissioned members (NCMs)—those who are not officers—attrition for medical reasons has almost doubled since 2001. Medical releases have averaged about 24 percent of total attrition for NCMs and 10 percent for officers over the last five years. National Defence is planning to conduct a study to identify the determining factors of the increase in medically related attrition, for example, age, gender, occupation, deployments, or postings.
National Defence is planning to expand the Regular Force by a total of 5,000 members
2.25 National Defence has stated that to remain sustainable, the size of the Regular Force must be expanded by 5,000 members to over 67,000. We reviewed the planning documents for the personnel increase in each type of occupation. We found that they included a detailed analysis supporting the increases and the impacts on training schools and capital costs. However, the planning documents did not look at the impacts on advertising and attraction activities needed to bring in more applicants. To achieve this 5,000-member expansion, National Defence plans to increase its recruitment target to about 5,800 each year until 2010.
The Canadian Forces are recruiting from a changing demographic
2.26 The Regular Force is competing for suitable candidates in a tight labour market. National Defence targets Canadians aged 16 to 34 who are physically fit and inclined to join the military. Young males have traditionally formed a large part of the military. The Conference Board of Canada has reported that the male population in this age group will grow by only 7.8 percent over the next 10 years, and the portion of women will increase by 9.2 percent over the same period.
2.27 A National Defence survey of this specific target group indicated that only six percent were interested in joining the Regular Force, although about 30 percent said they would consider joining if their education was paid for or if they were offered an entry bonus.
2.28 Statistics Canada data show that Canadian demographics are changing. Young Canadians from visible minorities are becoming an increasing portion of the population. National Defence has also conducted demographic studies and recognizes that it needs to recruit young women and young Canadians from Aboriginal and visible minority groups; it has set targets for these groups. However, so far the Department has not been successful in meeting these targets. The number of women recruited into the military has steadily decreased since our last audit in 2002, and the same trend appears for visible minorities and Aboriginal people
