Ontario Election: New riding and choices.

[Blackadder1916]

If truth be told I was a cynic long before I became a lawyer or became old.

I think I became a lawyer because I was a cynic.

Not sure if being a gunner first led to the development of my cynicism.

;D

Really?  Well, I suppose that's why there are lawyer jokes.  I would have thought that "skepticism" rather than "cynicism" is the appropriate trait of the legal profession since it is about the truth of things.  A skeptic doesn't believe anything without strong reasons, which is why it is also associated with doubt (reasonable or otherwise).  Cynicism is believing the worst of something or someone.  It has nothing to do with evidence.  Now, a lawyer's clients, once having dealings with the profession, is usually justified in being cynical.  The same would hold with age, once you experience the shit that happens it is easy to believe the worst of someone.

 

[FJAG]

Really?  Well, I suppose that's why there are lawyer jokes.  I would have thought that "skepticism" rather than "cynicism" is the appropriate trait of the legal profession since it is about the truth of things.  A skeptic doesn't believe anything without strong reasons, which is why it is also associated with doubt (reasonable or otherwise).  Cynicism is believing the worst of something or someone.  It has nothing to do with evidence.  Now, a lawyer's clients, once having dealings with the profession, is usually justified in being cynical.  The same would hold with age, once you experience the crap that happens it is easy to believe the worst of someone.

The two aren't mutually exclusive.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cynicism_(contemporary)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skepticism

I tend to reserve cynicism for politics and religion. My skepticism runs more broadly.

;D

 

[Remius]

Sigh...

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/doug-ford-debate-protesters-1.4653301

So, I really don't know why or even if there is a need to hire actors to show up for anything.

Maybe voting for the NOTA party is a good choice this time around. 

 

[mariomike]

Sigh...

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/doug-ford-debate-protesters-1.4653301

So, I really don't know why or even if there is a need to hire actors to show up for anything.

Maybe voting for the NOTA party is a good choice this time around. 

QUOTE

'We don't need to pay anyone,' Progressive Conservative leader told reporters

END QUOTE

Councillor Doug handing out, "$20 dollar holla's" in Ward 2.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ckIcOiJyH4

Hopefully Doug will have a better attendance record with the province than he did with the city,

QUOTE

Doug Ford had third-worst attendance, missed 53 per cent of 2014 city council votes
https://www.thestar.com/news/city_hall/toronto2014election/2014/09/16/doug_ford_had_thirdworst_attendance_missed_53_per_cent_of_2014_city_council_votes.html

Only veterans Giorgio Mammoliti (49 per cent) and Ron Moeser (39 per cent) were worse, and both were suffering health problems for part of the term.

END QUOTE

Councillor Mammoliti had brain surgery.  Councillor Moesser was battling cancer, and has since passed away.

Doug accused a reporter of a 'Gotcha Question' for asking him to explain how a bill becomes law in Ontario,
https://globalnews.ca/news/4197277/doug-ford-bill-becomes-law/

 

[Brad Sallows]

If it turns into an "ABF" ("ABC") campaign, early indications are that you'll get NDP.  Not much space left to indulge in the luxury of a non-Conservative protest vote while still hoping for a Conservative government.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

There's always been an ABF faction, even amongst Conservatives. I'm not worried. Horvath's platform is pretty well the same as Wynne's. Dumping billions into social programs. Horvath's idea of making us a Sanctuary province will cost us billions more and kill anything left of Ontario. There is still enough voters that remember the NDP goverment and Rae Days. I think it might be a couple of more election cycles before that goes away. Horvath hasn't been able to capitalize in three elections, even against Hudak. I don't think it'll be different this time. Probably make official opposition though. Ford needs to stop being distracted by Wynne. If he's arguing with her, he cant get his message out. Which is exactly what she wants to do. She knows no one believes her, so she doesn't need her message. Ford needs to shed his stage fright.

I'm not even going to worry about it. What happens, happens. I'll start to decide what to do the day after the election. Things are looking better and better across the river from me.

 

[Lumber]

Probably make official opposition though.

Disagree (respectfully). There are enough that remember Bob Rae, enough ABCs, enough anti-TrumpFord types, and enough staunch liberals supporters that I believe, the Liberals will have opposition status, with a possibility of them even keeping a minority gov.

To be clear, I said a possibility... I didn't say how big...

 

[Fishbone Jones]

I've got no crystal ball, so your guess is as good as mine. We'll just have to wait and see.

My biggest hope is if the grits fall below status that Ford closes them down.

 

[FJAG]

. . .
I'm not even going to worry about it. What happens, happens. I'll start to decide what to do the day after the election. . . .

Ditto.

I've lived under an NDP government in Manitoba and didn't die and after Nov 8th, 2016, I think I can handle just about anything. (Well, maybe not another Wynne majority but I've learned never to trust Toronto--a sad statement from a Scarborough boy)

:cheers:

 

[mariomike]

I've lived under an NDP government in Manitoba and didn't die

I remember the Ontario NDP Social Contract aka Rae Days,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Contract_(Ontario)
"The Social Contract was a 1993 initiative of the provincial Ontario New Democratic Party government of Bob Rae to impose austerity measures on the civil service. The plan imposed a wage freeze and mandatory unpaid days of leave for civil servants, which became known as Rae Days."

We lost 144 hours regular pay. But, gained 144 hours OT at time-and-a-half.

after Nov 8th, 2016, I think I can handle just about anything.  :cheers:

 

[Altair]

And so it begins. The fluid vote on the left is starting to coalesce around a winner.
https://globalnews.ca/news/4222975/ontario-election-pcs-ndp-tied-ipsos-poll/

If the election were held tomorrow, 37 per cent of decided voters in Ontario would vote NDP, up two points since last week, according to a new Ipsos poll conducted on behalf of Global News. Thirty-six per cent would vote for the PCs, which is down four points since last week.

The poll suggested that Doug Ford’s “Tory tumble” was largely due to eroding support in the 905-region of Toronto. Typically those with this area code live in some of Toronto’s populous suburbs, including Mississauga, Vaughan, Newmarket, Richmond Hill and Durham.

“Conservatives usually tend to be strong in 905 area, and it disappeared in this poll,” Bricker said. The collapse of Liberal party support in the area is probably the reason why NDP are gaining ground in the area, he added.

This could only happen under doug ford. Mulroney or Elliot, the conservative party walks with this election, ford, the vote on the left starts to shift.

Ontario conservatives,potentially grabbing defeat from the jaws of victory once again.

 

[Infanteer]

From the article:

However, a big question remains: can any of the parties can get voters to turn up on election day?

“We know that certain groups have a stronger tendency to participate [on election day] and those people tend to be conservative,” Bricker said.

“The people who are less sure of their choice and less likely to participate are voting for the NDP. So can Andrea Horwath galvanize the support she has? A low turn out in the election will be an advantage for the Conservatives,” he added.

Ford just has to continue to appeal to a base, whereas Horwath needs to get people out to vote and decide that she and her party are their first choice.

 

[Altair]

From the article:

Ford just has to continue to appeal to a base, whereas Horwath needs to get people out to vote and decide that she and her party are their first choice.

If the numbers stay the way they are, sure.

If the Liberal vote collapses further and their voters see the NDP as the best ABF vehicle, no.

 

[Remius]

From the article:

Ford just has to continue to appeal to a base, whereas Horwath needs to get people out to vote and decide that she and her party are their first choice.

Maybe.  Ford's issue is that he has no room to grow.

I see a few issues.

1) Disaffected liberals will more likely choose they NDP over the PC.  Altair alluded to it.  U nder any other moderate leader the PCs would have walked away with this election.

2) Internal party strife.  Many PCs are still unhappy with how the nomination races went.  In my riding a lot of the established PC volunteers aren't coming out and in fact some have moved toe Trilium party candidate.  Those that supported Tanya Grannic Allen for example might just stay home now that she's been kicked to the curb.

3) The NDP seem to have momentum.  That could be an issue.

So a PC minority?  Or an NDP minority with liberals shoring them up to keep what little power they can get?

What should have been an easy contest is turning into a real race.

   

 

[Infanteer]

I've seen too many weird elections in the last few years to settle for those kinds of predictions.  People were saying the same thing about Donald Trump in the U.S.  "Hillary has momentum.  The GOP is suffering from internal party strife.  Disaffected Republicans will stay home."

 

[Remius]

I've seen too many weird elections in the last few years to settle for those kinds of predictions.  People were saying the same thing about Donald Trump in the U.S.  "Hillary has momentum.  The GOP is suffering from internal party strife.  Disaffected Republicans will stay home."

Actually the same was being said about the Democrats.  Sanders supporters staying home etc.

The point is that this race should not even be this close.  The fact that the NDP is even a contender is an indication that any prediction can be thrown out.

The big edge that Ford will have though is that conservative voters do tend to show up at the polls.  A low voter turn out might help him on election day.

Alberta and BC elected NDP governments after being annoyed with the ruling party...

 

[Altair]

Another thing in that article was people saying they didn't believe anyone could beat the conservatives.

Now that this poll is out, it's going to wake people up to the fact that it's a real race now.

And those who don't want Ford now know where to park their vote.

I'll be interested in what polls look like in a week after people on the left realize that Ford isn't a done deal.

If I were to predict, the Liberal support will collapse another 5 points, the PCs will hold steady and the NDP will be just below 40.

Why the PCs didn't choose Mulroney or Elliot is beyond me. This was their best chance in years and they went with Doug Ford.

 

[observor 69]

FYI:

Éric Grenier‏Verified account @EricGrenierCBC · 29 minutes ago

New data from Ipsos/Global News (May 18-21): 37% NDP (+2 since May 14), 36% PC (-4), 23% LIB (+1), 4% GRN/OTH (+1).

 

[Infanteer]

The point is that this race should not even be this close.  The fact that the NDP is even a contender is an indication that any prediction can be thrown out.

The big edge that Ford will have though is that conservative voters do tend to show up at the polls.  A low voter turn out might help him on election day.

Alberta and BC elected NDP governments after being annoyed with the ruling party...

I don't know why you would say the race should not even be close.  The NDP won in Alberta and B.C. because people were annoyed with the ruling party.  It seems that people in Ontario are annoyed with the ruling party, so it seems logical that the NDP offer an alternative.

Why the PCs didn't choose Mulroney or Elliot is beyond me. This was their best chance in years and they went with Doug Ford.

Lol.  Replace PC with "GOP" and Mulroney or Elliot with "Cruz or Jeb Bush" and you are essentially replaying what I've heard in the US for the last year or two.  I'm not comparing Ford to Trump, only pointing out that "unelectable politicians" are actually quite electable.

I just see a lot of "conventional logic" being posted, when the last few years of national and sub-national politics has indicated that it isn't true or universal.

 

[Altair]

I don't know why you would say the race should not even be close.  The NDP won in Alberta and B.C. because people were annoyed with the ruling party.  It seems that people in Ontario are annoyed with the ruling party, so it seems logical that the NDP offer an alternative.

Lol.  Replace PC with "GOP" and Mulroney or Elliot with "Cruz or Jeb Bush" and you are essentially replaying what I've heard in the US for the last year or two.  I'm not comparing Ford to Trump, only pointing out that "unelectable politicians" are actually quite electable.

I just see a lot of "conventional logic" being posted, when the last few years of national and sub-national politics has indicated that it isn't true or universal.

without going too much into American politics,  it can be said that American voters didn't know what they were getting with trump. Populist leaders around the world since then have failed to replicate trumps success,  maybe due to the fact that the voting public want nothing to do with what they are seeing in America.

That said,  Ontario is not America,  the NDP are not the liberals or democrats,  and the conservatives are not the GOP.

Ford could still win this,  Mulroney and Elliot might have lost,  but everything in the polls months ago and now repeat the same theme. Elliot and Mulroney were less devisive and as moderates were able to court voters outside the base far better than ford.

As such,  they would have been far better positioned to fend off a NDP surge in the late stages of a election campaign.

Ford now needs to hope that the liberals don't collapse completely,  because liberal voters looking for a second choice are not going to be voting for him.