Pipelines

[Kirkhill]

Sometimes.

Sometimes it is just a correction line…

Damned oranges.

 

[lenaitch]

I see the same situation with pipelines and first nations. If there is too much resistance then bypass and isolate.

That's what Ontario (Hydro One) recently did when upgrading an electrical transmission corridor in northern Ontario. The original line went through both a National Park and a FNT. The new corridor took a different route to avoid both.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

That sounds inaccurate. I saw on TV a statement he made. He dodged the question by noting there were no projects in contemplation at a stage that warranted addressing the issue. That isn't a flat "no".

Eby pours cold water on Carney’s pipeline consensus plan

B.C. Premier David Eby is throwing shade on the pipeline consensus presented by his colleagues at the meeting between Canada’s premiers and Prime Minister Mark Carney earlier this week. Carney previously said he would support building pipelines if certain conditions were met, one of them being co

truenorthwire.com

However, Eby said he would not support building a new oil pipeline through B.C.

If that isn't a NO, I don't know what is, but I'm not getting flustered over wording.

 

[Kirkhill]

Eby pours cold water on Carney’s pipeline consensus plan

B.C. Premier David Eby is throwing shade on the pipeline consensus presented by his colleagues at the meeting between Canada’s premiers and Prime Minister Mark Carney earlier this week. Carney previously said he would support building pipelines if certain conditions were met, one of them being co

truenorthwire.com

However, Eby said he would not support building a new oil pipeline through B.C.

If that isn't a NO, I don't know what is, but I'm not getting flustered over wording.

Not support is not the same as oppose. Shades of grey.

 

[Kirkhill]

From a couple of days ago:

AGG, which operates the Port of Churchill and the connecting Hudson Bay Railway (HBR) in northern Manitoba, strategically links Western Canada to Arctic waters and from there offers routes to Europe, South America and the Middle East.

Stretching for 1,000 kilometres from The Pas in central Manitoba to Churchill on Hudson Bay’s western shores, the HBR is also a lifeline for 33,000 people living in isolated areas with limited road access, said Hicham Ayoun, senior communications adviser at Transport Canada.

The Port of Churchill, Canada’s only deep-water Arctic port connected to mainland, ships goods such as critical minerals, construction equipment and agricultural and energy products to Southern Nunavut’s Kivalliq region and the rest of the world.

The port and railway were returned to Canadian hands in August, 2018. A partnership of OneNorth – a group of 29 First Nations and 12 communities in Manitoba and Nunavut – and Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. acquired them from Omnitrax and commenced repairs, supported by federal funds. The Churchill community welcomed back the first train in November, 2018, after 18 months of shutdown.

Fairfax left the partnership two years later, leaving OneNorth the sole owner of AGG, owned by a partnership of 29 First Nations and 12 communities in Manitoba and Nunavut, Mr. Avery said.

Mr. Avery said the company currently employs 150 workers,

The company marked a milestone in August with the first shipment of critical minerals from the port. This included around 10,000 tons of zinc concentrate from Snow Lake, Man., loaded onto the HBR and cargo vessels, and destined for Belgium.

The group is building a new storage facility to ramp up critical mineral shipments, “the first new building at the Port after decades of neglect,” according to the report.

Mr. Avery said Europe is a critical minerals major market for AGG. The group plans to transport up to 20,000 tonnes of minerals this year, including potash for food production. New exports will also include sand used in new technologies such as solar panels. Construction equipment, trucks and building materials are instead on the list for Nunavut communities.

Arctic Gateway Group says the Port of Churchill will help diversify Canada’s trade links to other countries

AGG strategically links Western Canada to Arctic waters and from there offers routes to Europe, South America and the Middle East

www.theglobeandmail.com

...

Alaska Highway
Great North Road

These were and are typical of many roads around the world. They were built for strategic purposes, to communicate, to move troops, to move supplies between two distant points. Traders set up around the military posts and stopping points along the way. Miners and others used the roads to reach into the newly available territories. Fortunes lost and made. New cities built.

The people moved in after the roads were built.

 

[Kirkhill]

Northern representation in federal cabinet could lead to better outcomes, two territorial premiers say

Yukon Premier Ranj Pillai is waiting for the May 27 Speech from the Throne to hear what Ottawa plans for Canada’s North

www.theglobeandmail.com

Two premiers of Canada’s territories say they are optimistic that the three ministers who mark significant Northern representation in the new federal cabinet might lead to better co-operation and significant projects being completed.

Yukon Premier Ranj Pillai said it will make “a world of difference” not to have to explain the opportunities and challenges of the North to federal counterparts. Northwest Territories Premier R.J. Simpson agreed, saying they will be able to get right to the issues at hand during meetings.

“The fact that we’re going to have people at the cabinet table who have that knowledge and have that background and are able to educate their federal colleagues, is going to go a long way to ensuring that the decisions that are made about Canada and about the North are actually informed,” Mr. Simpson said in an interview Friday. “To me, that’s the most exciting part.”

Prime Minister Mark Carney’s cabinet, unveiled last week, includes Indigenous Services Minister Mandy Gull-Masty, whose riding includes Northern Quebec; Crown-Indigenous Relations Minister Rebecca Alty, who represents the Northwest Territories; and Northern and Arctic Affairs Minister Rebecca Chartrand, whose riding is in Northern Manitoba.

Buckley Belanger, named the secretary of state for rural development, represents Northern Saskatchewan. Mr. Carney was born in Fort Smith, NWT

AGG/NeeStaNan Corridor - Native Proponents

Smith - Moe/Belanger - Kinew/Chartrand.

Backing of Pillai - Simpson/Alty/Carney - Akeeagok - Gull-Masty to deliver Grays Harbour and Hudson Bay access.

And there is commercial backing as well.

Seafood magnate John Risley leads venture to build infrastructure in Canada’s Arctic

Startup believes it can be a catalyst for country’s economic expansion in the North

www.theglobeandmail.com

Nova Scotia billionaire John Risley says Canada has neglected the Arctic for far too long, which has undermined the country’s economic prospects and put its sovereignty at risk. He’s betting he can light a fire for change.

Mr. Risley, who made his fortune with Clearwater Seafoods before turning to investments in MDA Space and green energy, has launched a new company called Arctic Economic Development Corp. (AECD). It’s aiming to spur large-scale growth in Canada‘s North, primarily north of the 60th parallel, by marshalling a wave of new capital, private-sector expertise, and partnerships with government and Indigenous Peoples such as the Inuit.

“We haven’t really stepped up as a country” in devoting enough attention to the Arctic, Mr. Risley said in an interview this week with The Globe and Mail. Public underinvestment in the Coast Guard has left Northern waters exposed while corporate Canada “hasn’t woken up to the opportunity,” he said.

“It’s sort of hard to get to. It’s difficult to do business in. There are short windows of opportunity because of weather. And all that needs to change,” Mr. Risley said. “It’s an area, as we are learning, of strategic importance to the country. And somebody needs to be a proponent of this from the private sector and help both business and government get things done up there and done in a hurry.”

Melting ice and increasingly volatile geopolitics are changing the face of Canada‘s Arctic region, which makes up nearly 40 per cent of the country’s land mass despite being home to only 150,000 people. Both China and Russia have been increasing their naval activity in the Arctic via research ships and military patrols, prompting a warning by former NATO secretary-general Fogh Rasmussen this month that the alliance needs to take on a “stronger role” in the region.

Mr. Risley said his startup believes it can be a catalyst for Canada‘s economic expansion in the North, pulling together its connections and partnerships to forge private-sector-led investment and infrastructure development. Discussions have already begun with pension fund managers and other infrastructure players who might be interested in funding projects, he said.

The company is working on an early project with Qikiqtaaluk leaders in Nunavut’s Baffin region that would see Horizon Maritime, a marine services company co-owned by Mr. Risley, quarterback the procurement of polar-class icebreakers for private and public purposes. It also wants to speed up projects for things such as satellite communication service, warehouses and resource access through new transportation infrastructure.

“I’m in love with the Arctic,” Mr. Risley said. “I’ve spent quite a bit of time up there. I see it changing. And I see it as both an opportunity and a concern. We can do this the right way and we can do it the wrong way. And so I want to be part of doing it the right way.”


The Nova Scotia businessman has a track record of collaboration, particularly with Indigenous partners. After Clearwater signed a landmark agreement on surf clam harvesting with 14 First Nations in Atlantic Canada worth millions in revenue-sharing, he went further and sold the entire company to a coalition of Mi’kmaq bands and Vancouver-based Premium Brands Holdings Corp.

Nothing will happen now without the involvement of local communities, Mr. Risley said, adding that these are economic opportunities that belong to the North.

“This is not going to be an agenda run out of Toronto or Ottawa or Halifax,” he said. “They’re going to be at the boardroom table helping make decisions and deciding what gets support and what doesn’t. You can’t do things in the North in the absence of social licence, I can promise you that.”

Before the Brits and French showed up the Inuit were trading with the Vikings.

 

[Kirkhill]

The most recent concrete plan for a national-scale response to infrastructure gaps in the near North was pitched several years ago by researchers at the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy and the Montreal-based CIRANO research group. The proposed Canadian Northern Corridor, endorsed in 2017 by the standing Senate committee on banking, trade and commerce, calls for a 7,000-kilometre designated right-of-way stretching across the country for roads, rail, power transmission, pipelines and communication networks that would connect to existing infrastructure in Southern Canada.

Seafood magnate John Risley leads venture to build infrastructure in Canada’s Arctic

Startup believes it can be a catalyst for country’s economic expansion in the North

www.theglobeandmail.com

Don't remember hearing anything about this one.

 

[Czech_pivo]

From a couple of days ago:

Arctic Gateway Group says the Port of Churchill will help diversify Canada’s trade links to other countries

AGG strategically links Western Canada to Arctic waters and from there offers routes to Europe, South America and the Middle East

www.theglobeandmail.com

...

Alaska Highway
Great North Road

These were and are typical of many roads around the world. They were built for strategic purposes, to communicate, to move troops, to move supplies between two distant points. Traders set up around the military posts and stopping points along the way. Miners and others used the roads to reach into the newly available territories. Fortunes lost and made. New cities built.

The people moved in after the roads were built.

I seem to remember that we tried building some new road in our sector of Afghanistan under the premise of ‘nation building.’

 

[brihard]

I seem to remember that we tried building some new road in our sector of Afghanistan under the premise of ‘nation building.’

I always got the impression the premise was “it’ll be marginally harder to IED us if it’s paved.”

 

[daftandbarmy]

I always got the impression the premise was “it’ll be marginally harder to IED us if it’s paved.”

Laughs in IRA

 

[Colin Parkinson]

From a couple of days ago:

Arctic Gateway Group says the Port of Churchill will help diversify Canada’s trade links to other countries

AGG strategically links Western Canada to Arctic waters and from there offers routes to Europe, South America and the Middle East

www.theglobeandmail.com

...

Alaska Highway
Great North Road

These were and are typical of many roads around the world. They were built for strategic purposes, to communicate, to move troops, to move supplies between two distant points. Traders set up around the military posts and stopping points along the way. Miners and others used the roads to reach into the newly available territories. Fortunes lost and made. New cities built.

The people moved in after the roads were built.

Some details on rail line improvements

Record-Breaking Construction Progress for Hudson Bay Railway and Port of Churchill in 2024 — Arctic Gateway Group

RECORD-BREAKING CONSTRUCTION PROGRESS FOR HUDSON BAY RAILWAY AND PORT OF CHURCHILL IN 2024

www.arcticgateway.com

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

Some details on rail line improvements

Record-Breaking Construction Progress for Hudson Bay Railway and Port of Churchill in 2024 — Arctic Gateway Group

RECORD-BREAKING CONSTRUCTION PROGRESS FOR HUDSON BAY RAILWAY AND PORT OF CHURCHILL IN 2024

www.arcticgateway.com

This project intrigues me.

 

[foresterab]

Linier projects are hard.

1. First find a engineering company with experience in the field and negotiate contract, Terms of Reference (TOR), etc
2. Design a project using existing information, both public and privately held. Normally this is done on the quiet.
3. Find a potentiel client for your product and get a notional contract
4. Submit a project description to the relevant authorities for a decision on the EA process, begin social licence marketing
5. Begin talks with potentially affected indigenous groups. (Note some proponents actually do 5 first, then 4)
6. With a TOR from the government, seek exploration permits and land access agreement from the FN to begin detailed route surveys
7. Submit revised route plans based on geophysical issues, sensitive ecological, important FN sites, archeological sites and issues with other landowners and existing infrastructure.
8. Governments determine if the revised route still falls under the original scope or a new TOR needs to be issued.
9. Start the full public EA process, open houses, federal and provincial consultations begin with interested FN's
10. Determine if anymore route changes are needed and any information gaps are filled.
11. If no major changes then a positive EA decision may be given.
12. Firm up contract with client, get Final Investment Decision from company board
13. Regulatory submissions by the proponent to authorities, then they begin regulatory consultations
14. Construction begins, normally in multiple locations at once
15. new issues emerge, (geophysical, archeological typically) require some route alterations.
16. The new route alterations are assessed to see if they fall under the scope of the existing review, if yes, they are assessed, consulted apone and then a modified EA certificate is issued. Trigger, new regulatory reviews of those sections.

This is a simplified list of the process

Fully aware BC processes are very different and more/different checks needed for different reasons. In Alberta most of the projects are based upon:
1. identify source (usually a hub) which determines size/future capacity consideration and end point.
2. Most engineering is pretty basic for route selection. The lack of mountain topography in much of the Province makes this much easier engineering except for river/rail/highway crossings which - despite a site specific plan - are pretty routine. Some historical and cultural values are pre-known (rough area only) so a person can adjust in advance...same with waterbodies etc. that might cause issues.
3. Permission is not needed to survey in Alberta. However social license says that most call as a curtesy and surveying can vary in terms of scouting (often done with imagery/GIS these days) to physical markers placed.
4. First Nation consultation is initiated. Usually route + buffer area + key staging areas. Will include both provincial surface use (for crown lands) and water act crossings under a single consultation. May result in alternative routes.
5. Application to regulator under a single disposition file. Regardless of length it's a single file number used to track things. TransMountain was overjoyed it was a single file to track for forestry salvage vs. the 288? separate cutting permits needed in BC. Not knocking BC...valid reasons why some of that is done.
6. Application to regulator will trigger minimum consultation needs for public - how long, who is affected. Most companies may start with a soft sell early...especially when dealing with private lands...and then once more details are figured out then get serious. This is also when land expropriation may occur depending on project from private land owners and usually with above market price compensation.
7. Somewhere around step 5 the companies would also start getting federal paperwork in order for things like DFO.
8. Single contractor or multiple phase contractor. Models out there for both but kick off usually happens at multiple stages.
9. Construction starts and minor approvals may be requested but tend to be rare. Very rare to have an unknown geophysical issue. First Nation site or cultural artifacts are usually a stop work until addressed but depends on situation.

Biggest issue is whether it falls solely within provincial legislation or if it involves federal legislation. Pipelines crossing provincial border involve Federal rules and they then to be much slower projects....partly due to lack of experience on these types of jobs, partly due to different perspective for national consistency (which Alberta industry often forgets), partially due to lack of trust with industry, partially due to some duplicated processes (DFO may require it's own First Nation Consultation...with different groups and timelines...than the previous approved provincial decision on the same project).

 

[Kirkhill]

I have seen articles in the past that there is no European market for WCS Oil. I have even seen the claim that the European refineries aren't set up to refine heavy oils like WCS.

But.

New map reveals tar-sands-ready refineries across Europe

More than half of Europe’s oil refineries are ready to process ultra-high carbon tar sands, one of the most environmentally devastating fuels in…

www.transportenvironment.org

SHEL, BP, TTE: Canada Looks to Europe for Future Oil Exports

Detailed price information for BP Plc ADR (BP-N) from The Globe and Mail including charting and trades.

www.theglobeandmail.com

https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/news-research/latest-news/crude-oil/032425-canada-sees-europe-as-new-oil-market-as-federal-elections-announced

Surge in Canadian Crude Oil Exports to Europe — Breakwave Advisors

Signal Ocean Tanker Weekly Market Monitor

www.breakwaveadvisors.com

Given a solid rail bed how long before a transfer station could be built at Churchill and the first tanker could be shipped? Even a laker sized tanker?

An Aframax would probably require an offshore terminal in which case the Port Nelson spur might as well be built.

LNG would require the purchase and construction of a Cedar LNG type floating plant with a two or three year delay.

But, loading WCS into tankers and delivering them to Europe? Could that start next summer?

 

[Colin Parkinson]

This project intrigues me.

I kind of figured it would

 

[Kirkhill]

Deleted - wrong Churchill.

 

[Kirkhill]

As of 2008, the port had four deep-sea berths capable of handling Panamax-size vessels for the loading and unloading of grain, bulk commodities, general cargo, and tanker vessels

Port of Churchill - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

A guide to bulk vessel sizes | Clarksons

Clarksons presents a guide to bulk vessel sizes. Learn the size, specifications, and use of Panamax, Aframax, Suezmax, Handymax, Capesize, and Chinamax vessels.

www.clarksons.com

Panamax -

• Length: 294 metres (965 feet)
• Width: 32.3 metres (106 feet)
• Draft: 12 metres (39.5 feet)
• Capacity: 65,000 to 80,000 dwt

Aframax -

• Length: 200 to 250 metres (656 to 820 feet)
• Width: 32 to 44 metres (105 to 144 feet)
• Draft: 12 to 16 metres (39 to 52 feet)
• Capacity: 80,000 to 120,000 dwt

So some Aframax (narrower beam) could fit into Churchill?

....

Length of the dock at Churchill, from Google Earth, seems to be about 850m, or about 4 ship lengths. The beam does not seem to be constrained. And the draft is 17 m.

 

[Kirkhill]

Next question.

How much does an ice-capable Aframax tanker cost?

Delta Tankers sells four ice-class aframaxes for $35m each

<p>Ice-class aframax tankers that can load and ship Russian crude from freezing Baltic ports over winter are one of the hottest commodities for shipowners or traders linked to the Russian Federation as sanctions restrict available tonnage</p>

www.lloydslist.com

Undisclosed buyers bought the tankers from Diamantis Diamantides and family, the beneficial owners of Delta’s fleet, with all currently being used to ship Russian crude​

• 21 Dec 2022

Ice class Tankers are the talk of the town | Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide

www.hellenicshippingnews.com

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-13/russia-sanctions-boost-demand-for-ice-breaking-oil-tankers?embedded-checkout=true

Ice-class ‘crunch’ coming as Russian winter approaches - Splash247

Analysts at BRS are predicting a “crunch” on ice-class tonnage as Russia’s winter approaches, something that could drive premiums for this niche tonnage to “eye-watering” rates. Last winter saw record earnings for aframaxes lifting Russian crude with ships on the now suspended TD17 from Primorsk...

splash247.com

15 year old 1A Aframax tankers that were selling for 16 MUSD in 2022 were selling for 34 MUSD in 2023.

....

10 MUSD will buy you 1 mile of pipeline.

Cheaper labor helps reduce pipeline construction costs

Sharply lower costs in all categories but material—which was roughly flat—decreased the price of building land pipelines by nearly $3 million/mile.

www.ogj.com

....

So, from Churchill, you can buy, apparently, 3 or 4 ice-capable tankers for 150 MUSD or 15 miles of pipe.

 

[Kirkhill]

Recent notable deals include two suezmax units, the sale of which was reported by Belgium’s Euronav today.

They comprise the 2006-built Statia (IMO: 9302982) and the 2008-built Sapphira (IMO: 9336983). The 150,205 dwt pair have been acquired by private interests of Euronav's controlling Saverys family.

Meanwhile, brokers report the sale of the 2009-built very large crude carrier Advantage Virtue (IMO: 9379698). This 296,000 dwt ship is reported to have been sold to Chinese buyers for $51m.

In the aframax segment, Pertamina is said to have acquired the five year old long range two tanker STI Lily (IMO: 9838242) from Scorpio Group for $73.5m.

Recent medium-range tanker sales included the SR Navigation-owned Caribbean Star (IMO: 9278698). This 20-year-old, 46,000 dwt vessel was sold to undisclosed buyers for $17.9m.

Diamantara noted that although five-year-old and 10-year-old tanker values remain at their highest levels in 16 years, values of 15-year-old ships and older have corrected recently.

She said MR units have been the driving force behind sale and purchase activity in 2024, with such vessels accounting for some 33% of all sales so far. This is followed by the aframax/LR2 segment, with a total of 53 vessel sales.

“MR2s and LR2s have emerged as highly sought-after assets, due to increasing preference for clean trading options,” said Diamantara.

“These versatile vessels offer the flexibility to transport both clean and dirty cargoes, making them attractive to a wide range of shippers and traders.”

In the past four months, tanker values have witnessed a notable trend, with MR2s experiencing a significant uptick while prices for VLCCs, suezmax, and aframax units have remained relatively stable.

Since early June, the market for tankers of more than 80,000 dwt has seen a period of price stability.

However, a distinct divergence has emerged in the MR2 segment, said Diamantara who noted that five-year-old and 10-year-old MR2s have seen a marked increase in value, due to robust demand.

She said presently, five-year-old MR2s are valued at around $50m, representing a 10% increase compared to June 2024 levels. Within the same period, asset values of 10-year-old MR2s are up by 8%, to around $41m.

“The MR Atlantic Basket and MR Pacific Basket experienced a period of robust freight rates from January 2024 to mid-July 2024, propelling the values of MRs to 16-year highs.

“While both baskets have subsequently retreated to year-to-date lows, the long-term outlook for the MR market remains positive, mainly as we approach the winter season.”

Diamantara noted that despite the 34% decline in sale and purchase activity in 2024, the demand for modern, fuel-efficient vessels has seen a significant increase.

Since January, some 60 tankers of up to 10 years old have been sold, compared to only 31 sales of such vessels between January and September 2023.

There has also been an increase in demand for scrubber-fitted tankers this year when compared to the same time period of 2023.

From the beginning of this year, more than 30% of all tanker sales were of vessels fitted with exhaust gas abatement systems, compared to 18% in the first nine months of 2023.

Diamantara said ships equipped with scrubbers, or fitted with electronic main engines, will command a price premium compared to more basic vessels without such characteristics.

Furthermore, vessels engaged solely in clean trades or ships featuring the latest hull coatings and energy-saving devices will also be able to obtain higher prices.

“Premium pricing for higher specification vessels is not easy to quantify and to put a price tag next to it," said Diamantara.

“A ship’s value is influenced by several factors, such as the prevailing market conditions at the time of purchase, vessel age and trading patterns."

Tanker sale and purchase market subdued as high prices discourage investors

<p>The confluence of high vessel asset values and softening freight rates has created a challenging environment for potential buyers of crude oil tankers and product tankers</p>

www.lloydslist.com

---

For those of you used to looking at the prices of navy ships built in Canada and the US.

 

[Kirkhill]

From economist Trevor Tombe

Even with all the cost over runs ....

Trevor Tombe: The Trans Mountain pipeline was worth every penny of its $34 billion price tag

thehub.ca