Pipelines

[Kirkhill]

How many cars on that train to reach 100,000 barrels?
What is the size of the train yard in Churchill in terms number of cars it can hold?
Can the tracks handle the size the train needed?
How many trains a day can the tracks handle - after every train is there a need to spot check for safety issues the entire line?
I've read talk of them 'doubling' the trains per week right now to...... 2 a week - not 2 a day. To accommodate those 2 trains a week and the 8 needed for 1 tanker to be filled, that would put the number at 10 trains a week - has the line ever handled 10 trains a week?
Click to expand...

34,500 USG per DOT/TC-111(7)
42 USG per barrel
821 bbl per car

100,000 bbls per day
821 bbls per car
120 cars per day

1 unit train of 120 cars at 60 ft each = 7200 ft = 2.2 km
Typical travel speed of 35.7 km/h = 3.7 minutes to pass a crossing

Bruderheim has 8 parallel sidings, 2 concentric ring tracks and 12 pumping stations.

8 Unit trains to fill one Aframax like Mastera/Petali

Got to rethinking this and reworking the data -

Three modes of transport

Pipeline
Rail
Ship

One 48" pipeline can move 890,000 barrels of WCS per day

890,000 barrels is 37,380,000 USG, or 141,483,300 liters or 141,483 m3.
A 48" pipeline has a cross sectional area of 1.17 m2.
The flow velocity is 120,925 m/day
Or 120.9 km/day
Or 5 km/h.

Pipeline costs you 6 MUSD per km or 16 km for 100 MUSD.

100 MUSD invested in a pipeline with move your oil 16 km at a rate of 5 km/h.
But it will do it 24 hours a day.

890,000 barrels over 16 km in 24 hours


....


34,500 USG per DOT/TC-111(7)
42 USG per barrel
821 bbl per car

100,000 bbls per day
821 bbls per car
120 cars per day

1 unit train of 120 cars at 60 ft each = 7200 ft = 2.2 km
Typical travel speed of 35.7 km/h

Rail costs are broadly comparable to pipeline costs at 6 MUSD per km
100 MUSD will get you 16 km of rail.

But you also need cars.
Cars cost about 170,000 USD each

If 1000 meters of rail costs 6 MUSD
then 170,000 USD, the price of one rail car will cost you 28 meters of rail

A unit train of 120 cars at 170,000 USD will cost you 20 MUSD
That will come off your 100 MUSD leaving you with
80 MUSD.

At 6 MUSD per km your track has now shortened to 13 km from 16 km.

So your 100 MUSD invested in a rail solution will move your oil 13 km at a rate of 32.7 km/h

If you shuttle your train up and down the track, and ignore times to fill and empty the train, and each trip take 0.4 hours, or 24 minutes one way, 0.8 hour round trip then in 24 hours that train can make 30 round trips and deliver 30x 100,000 bbs per day or 3,000,000 barrels per day.


3,000,000 barrels over 13 km in 24 hours

But as I said that excludes loading and emptying. And Bruderheim ships a unit train only once per day.

So your delivery just shrank to 1 train a day with 100,000 barrels delivered over 13 km.

And the capital cost does not include the actual pumping stations at either end.

100,000 barrels over 13 km in 24 hours

...

100 MUSD will also buy you a PC4 Aframax tanker of similar capacity to those ships visiting the TMX terminal in Vancouver.

We'll keep it with a light load and say it carries 600,000 barrels of WCS and that it moves through open water at 12 knots or 22 km/h

100 MUSD invested in a PC4 ship will move your oil 528 km in 24 hours.

Even in ice-congested waters the PC4 is expected to maintain a speed of advance of 4 knots or 7.4 km/h.

....

100 MUSD invested in a pipeline will move 890,000 barrels of oil per day a distance of 16 km overland - 7 Dollars per barrel-km per day
100 MUSD invested in a railway will move 100,000 barrels of oil per day a distance of 13 km overland - 77 Dollars per barrel-km per day
100 MUSD invested in a tanker will move 600,000 barrels of oil per day a distance 177 km through first year ice. - 1 Dollar per barrel-km per day
100 MUSD invested in a tanker will move 600,000 barrels of oil per day a distance 528 km through open water. - 0.3 Dollar per barrel-km per day

...​

I look forwards to being told how this comparison is unfair and I got my decimal points wrong.

But off hand it seems to me the sooner you can get stuff onto a boat and into the ocean, even an ice-covered ocean, the faster you can get your product to market and the cheaper it will be.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Got to rethinking this and reworking the data -

Three modes of transport

Pipeline
Rail
Ship

One 48" pipeline can move 890,000 barrels of WCS per day

890,000 barrels is 37,380,000 USG, or 141,483,300 liters or 141,483 m3.
A 48" pipeline has a cross sectional area of 1.17 m2.
The flow velocity is 120,925 m/day
Or 120.9 km/day
Or 5 km/h.

Pipeline costs you 6 MUSD per km or 16 km for 100 MUSD.

100 MUSD invested in a pipeline with move your oil 16 km at a rate of 5 km/h.
But it will do it 24 hours a day.

890,000 barrels over 16 km in 24 hours


....


34,500 USG per DOT/TC-111(7)
42 USG per barrel
821 bbl per car

100,000 bbls per day
821 bbls per car
120 cars per day

1 unit train of 120 cars at 60 ft each = 7200 ft = 2.2 km
Typical travel speed of 35.7 km/h

Rail costs are broadly comparable to pipeline costs at 6 MUSD per km
100 MUSD will get you 16 km of rail.

But you also need cars.
Cars cost about 170,000 USD each

If 1000 meters of rail costs 6 MUSD
then 170,000 USD, the price of one rail car will cost you 28 meters of rail

A unit train of 120 cars at 170,000 USD will cost you 20 MUSD
That will come off your 100 MUSD leaving you with
80 MUSD.

At 6 MUSD per km your track has now shortened to 13 km from 16 km.

So your 100 MUSD invested in a rail solution will move your oil 13 km at a rate of 32.7 km/h

If you shuttle your train up and down the track, and ignore times to fill and empty the train, and each trip take 0.4 hours, or 24 minutes one way, 0.8 hour round trip then in 24 hours that train can make 30 round trips and deliver 30x 100,000 bbs per day or 3,000,000 barrels per day.


3,000,000 barrels over 13 km in 24 hours

But as I said that excludes loading and emptying. And Bruderheim ships a unit train only once per day.

So your delivery just shrank to 1 train a day with 100,000 barrels delivered over 13 km.

And the capital cost does not include the actual pumping stations at either end.

100,000 barrels over 13 km in 24 hours

...

100 MUSD will also buy you a PC4 Aframax tanker of similar capacity to those ships visiting the TMX terminal in Vancouver.

We'll keep it with a light load and say it carries 600,000 barrels of WCS and that it moves through open water at 12 knots or 22 km/h

100 MUSD invested in a PC4 ship will move your oil 528 km in 24 hours.

Even in ice-congested waters the PC4 is expected to maintain a speed of advance of 4 knots or 7.4 km/h.

....

100 MUSD invested in a pipeline will move 890,000 barrels of oil per day a distance of 16 km overland - 7 Dollars per barrel-km per day
100 MUSD invested in a railway will move 100,000 barrels of oil per day a distance of 13 km overland - 77 Dollars per barrel-km per day
100 MUSD invested in a tanker will move 600,000 barrels of oil per day a distance 177 km through first year ice. - 1 Dollar per barrel-km per day
100 MUSD invested in a tanker will move 600,000 barrels of oil per day a distance 528 km through open water. - 0.3 Dollar per barrel-km per day

...​

I look forwards to being told how this comparison is unfair and I got my decimal points wrong.

But off hand it seems to me the sooner you can get stuff onto a boat and into the ocean, even an ice-covered ocean, the faster you can get your product to market and the cheaper it will be.

Besides labour & maintenance costs, the only other possible cost of significance would be the insurance cost incurred for each of these.

 

[Rifleman62]

Take note No Business Case Canada.

What India said in response to Donald Trump's 'raising tariffs' threat | 6 points

US President Donald Trump said that India has been buying “massive amounts” of Russian oil and selling it on the open market for “big profits”.

www.hindustantimes.com

What India said in response to Donald Trump's 'raising tariffs' threat | 6 points​

1. In its statement, the ministry of external affairs pointed out that India began importing from Russia because traditional supplies were diverted to Europe after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. “The United States at that time actively encouraged such imports by India for strengthening global energy markets stability,” the MEA said.
2. The MEA said that India’s imports are meant to ensure predictable and affordable energy costs for the Indian consumer and are a necessity compelled by the global market situation. It also pointed out that nations criticizing India “are themselves indulging in trade with Russia” and that such trade “is not even a vital national compulsion.”
3. 3. The ministry pointed out that the European Union in 2024 had a bilateral trade of 67.5 billion Euros in goods with Russia. “In addition, it had trade in services estimated at Euro 17.2 billion in 2023. This is significantly more than India’s total trade with Russia that year or subsequently. European imports of LNG in 2024, in fact, reached a record 16.5mn tonnes, surpassing the last record of 15.21mn tonnes in 2022,” the MEA said.
   
   4. It said that trade between Russia and Europe is not only limited to energy, but also fertilisers, mining products, chemicals, iron and steel and machinery and transport equipment.
   
   5. “Where the United States is concerned, it continues to import from Russia uranium hexafluoride for its nuclear industry, palladium for its EV industry, fertilisers as well as chemicals,” the MEA said.
   
   6. The ministry said that, given this background, targeting India is unjustified and unreasonable and that, like any major economy, India will take all necessary measures to safeguard its national interests and economic security.
   
   

 

[The Bread Guy]

Take note No Business Case Canada.

What India said in response to Donald Trump's 'raising tariffs' threat | 6 points

US President Donald Trump said that India has been buying “massive amounts” of Russian oil and selling it on the open market for “big profits”.

www.hindustantimes.com

What India said in response to Donald Trump's 'raising tariffs' threat | 6 points​

1. In its statement, the ministry of external affairs pointed out that India began importing from Russia because traditional supplies were diverted to Europe after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. “The United States at that time actively encouraged such imports by India for strengthening global energy markets stability,” the MEA said.
2. The MEA said that India’s imports are meant to ensure predictable and affordable energy costs for the Indian consumer and are a necessity compelled by the global market situation. It also pointed out that nations criticizing India “are themselves indulging in trade with Russia” and that such trade “is not even a vital national compulsion.”
3. 3. The ministry pointed out that the European Union in 2024 had a bilateral trade of 67.5 billion Euros in goods with Russia. “In addition, it had trade in services estimated at Euro 17.2 billion in 2023. This is significantly more than India’s total trade with Russia that year or subsequently. European imports of LNG in 2024, in fact, reached a record 16.5mn tonnes, surpassing the last record of 15.21mn tonnes in 2022,” the MEA said.
   
   4. It said that trade between Russia and Europe is not only limited to energy, but also fertilisers, mining products, chemicals, iron and steel and machinery and transport equipment.
   
   5. “Where the United States is concerned, it continues to import from Russia uranium hexafluoride for its nuclear industry, palladium for its EV industry, fertilisers as well as chemicals,” the MEA said.
   
   6. The ministry said that, given this background, targeting India is unjustified and unreasonable and that, like any major economy, India will take all necessary measures to safeguard its national interests and economic security.

Already happening.

India Oil Corp Buys US and Middle Eastern Crude As Trump Criticizes Russian Purchases

Indian Oil Corp has bought 7 million barrels of crude from the United States, Canada and the Middle East, four trade sources said on Monday, as U.S.

www.marinelink.com

India Buys US, Canada and Middle East Oil After Halting Russian Imports

India’s leading state-owned refiner IOC buys turns to alternative crude supplies following Trump’s tariff threats against those countries importing from Russia.

www.kyivpost.com

Indian Oil Corp Buys 7 Million Barrels of US, Canadian, and Middle East Crude as Russian Discounts Narrow

In a strategic pivot, Indian Oil Corporation has snapped up 7 million barrels of crude from the United States, Canada, and the Middle East. The move follows a pause in Russian oil purchases as discounts dwindle, amid rising global sanctions and geopolitical pressure., Industry, Times Now

www.timesnownews.com

Wonder how much Canadian oil the IND refinery system can handle, given the mix of oils they seem to be getting?

Also, price talks a lot, too, given the discount RUS's giving them.

India indicates it will keep buying Russian oil despite Trump's threats

India has indicated it will continue buying oil from Russia despite threats by U.S. President Donald Trump.

apnews.com

 

[Kirkhill]

Already happening.

India Oil Corp Buys US and Middle Eastern Crude As Trump Criticizes Russian Purchases

Indian Oil Corp has bought 7 million barrels of crude from the United States, Canada and the Middle East, four trade sources said on Monday, as U.S.

www.marinelink.com

India Buys US, Canada and Middle East Oil After Halting Russian Imports

India’s leading state-owned refiner IOC buys turns to alternative crude supplies following Trump’s tariff threats against those countries importing from Russia.

www.kyivpost.com

Indian Oil Corp Buys 7 Million Barrels of US, Canadian, and Middle East Crude as Russian Discounts Narrow

In a strategic pivot, Indian Oil Corporation has snapped up 7 million barrels of crude from the United States, Canada, and the Middle East. The move follows a pause in Russian oil purchases as discounts dwindle, amid rising global sanctions and geopolitical pressure., Industry, Times Now

www.timesnownews.com

Wonder how much Canadian oil the IND refinery system can handle, given the mix of oils they seem to be getting?

Also, price talks a lot, too, given the discount RUS's giving them.

India indicates it will keep buying Russian oil despite Trump's threats

India has indicated it will continue buying oil from Russia despite threats by U.S. President Donald Trump.

apnews.com

I don't think that there is much of a problem finding customers for WCS anywhere. Even those refineries in "green" Europe are generally capable of handling heavy high sulfur oils. And given the number going out of business prematurely due to government policies (there is still a demand for gas, diesel and fuel oil as well as bitumen for asphalt) I think Alberta oil still has markets .... if it can get out of Canada. And doesn't have to go through the US.

We won't build pipelines but they are only to happy to build pipelines to take our oil and gas to their ports to sell to India, Korea, Japan and Europe.

 

[Kirkhill]

Britain's Lindsey oil refinery to close after no buyer found

Britain's insolvent Lindsey oil refinery will close down after no buyers were found for the site, Energy Minister Michael Shanks said in a statement on Monday.

www.reuters.com

One of Britain’s last refineries runs out of oil

Lindsey plant, formerly owned by Prax, will be wound down shortly after its owner’s collapse

www.telegraph.co.uk

And potholes

Britain's pothole plague: why aren't they getting fixed?

Politicians have been promising for years to fix potholes, which are a well-known bugbear for voters

theweek.com

 

[Kirkhill]

Positive signs?

Imperial Oil encouraged by talks with Ottawa as company posts fall in quarterly profit

Company’s net income fell to $949-million, or $1.86 per share, from $1.13-billion, or $2.11 per share, a year earlier

www.theglobeandmail.com

Enbridge sees strong demand for more oil pipeline capacity from Canada to US Gulf

Canadian pipeline operator Enbridge , said on Friday its recent commercial process to gauge oil shippers' interest in an expansion of its Flanagan South pipeline was oversubscribed, indicating strong demand for additional oil transport capacity from Canada to the U.S. Gulf Coast.

www.reuters.com

Canada’s Trans Mountain eyes open season later this year for pipeline capacity growth | BOE Report

The operator of Canada's Trans Mountain oil pipeline may launch a process this year to formally gauge commercial interest in the first of a series of potential projects to increase the system's capacity, CEO Mark Maki said on Wednesday. The process, known as an "open season," would determine...

boereport.com

Alliance Pipeline calls for expressions of interest in new transportation capacity to Alberta’s Industrial Heartland | BOE Report

CALGARY, AB– (July 25, 2025) – Alliance Pipeline Limited Partnership (Alliance) is soliciting non-binding expressions of interest for a new short-haul point-to-point transportation service on the Canadian segment of its system in northwest Alberta with delivery to a new meter station in Fort...

boereport.com

Tidewater enters into agreement to acquire North segment of Pembina Pipeline’s Western Pipeline System

Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure Ltd. has announced that it has entered into definitive agreements with Pembina Pipeline Corporation and certain of its affiliates, through a wholly owned limited partnership, to acquire the North Segment of Pembina's Western Pipeline System for total cash...

www.worldpipelines.com

 

[Kirkhill]

And Alaska is paying attention

Business leaders eye effect of future icebreakers on Arctic | Alaska Beacon

Icebreakers are particularly important to Alaska, especially in the Bering Strait region, where a strip of water separates Alaska and Russia.

alaskabeacon.com

 

[Fishbone Jones]

It's all kinda moot isn't it? He made it pretty clear the other day when speaking of Smith and her private and provincial alignments to build.

No pipelines as they don't fit with his Net Zero zealotry

 

[Kirkhill]

It's all kinda moot isn't it? He made it pretty clear the other day when speaking of Smith and her private and provincial alignments to build.

No pipelines as they don't fit with his Net Zero zealotry

I missed that comment. Could you post it?

 

[Kirkhill]

It's all kinda moot isn't it? He made it pretty clear the other day when speaking of Smith and her private and provincial alignments to build.

No pipelines as they don't fit with his Net Zero zealotry

If there are no east-west pipelines there will be north-south pipelines. Is that what is considered in Canada's best interest?

 

[Fishbone Jones]

I missed that comment. Could you post it?

Watch the video.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Net Zero or no. Export pipelines or not. We need a work around for Line 5. That is not up for debate

 

[Fishbone Jones]

If there are no east-west pipelines there will be north-south pipelines. Is that what is considered in Canada's best interest?

Canada's best interest is green renewable technology not fossil fuels according to Carney. Fossil fuels, as much as he can do it, are to remain in the ground.

 

[Kirkhill]

It's all kinda moot isn't it? He made it pretty clear the other day when speaking of Smith and her private and provincial alignments to build.

No pipelines as they don't fit with his Net Zero zealotry

Sorry. I'm not picking up what you are laying down from that video. That video, to me, does a fairish job of describing the situation and the problems. I didn't hear any definitive exclusions there.

WRT to Wab Kinew. For him to maintain his credibility with the first nations it seems appropriate to me that he steps back from what is becoming a heated discussion. He has native proponents as well as opponents. Better he lets the waters calm a bit.

....

At the same time Danielle is courting the Yukon

Alberta, Yukon cut deal to increase trade | Meridian Source

Alberta and Yukon Territory have signed a new deal Council of the Federation meeting to grow trade, jobs and investment between the two regions.

meridiansource.ca

Alberta and Yukon announce new partnership for economic cooperation

Alberta and the Yukon say they have committed to removing barriers so goods, services, workers and opportunity...

lethbridgenewsnow.com

This is on top of Northwest Territories

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/updates-to-n-w-t-alta-water-agreement-still-not-final-over-a-year-after-n-w-t-s-proposal-1.7583822

Memorandum of Understanding collaboration on the advancement of economic corridors [between the Government of Alberta and the Government of the Northwest Territories] - Open Government

open.alberta.ca

She hasn't signed a separate agreement with Nunavut but did jointly with the Western Premiers

Western Premiers' Joint Communique

The Western Premiers' meeting concluded with a communique clearly supporting Grays Bay and the Arctic Security Corridor. This joint statement was issued by BC Premier David Eby, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe, Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew, Nunavut Premier PJ...

www.westkit.ca

Western premiers set out top projects in MOU ahead of federal elections: Pillai

Deal signed during Western Premiers’ Conference outlines key projects in each jurisdiction

www.yukon-news.com

Add in the Free Trade Agreement between Yukon, NWT and Nunavut,

NWT, Nunavut and Yukon sign free trade framework agreement with Ontario

Goal is to remove trade barriers among jurisdictions

www.yukon-news.com

The Indigenous Opportunities Corporation, Scott Moe's similar funding, and number of other bilateral agreements, including with Manitoba, together with the Alberta Heritage Fund (currently sitting at 30 BCAD with a history of investing in other provinces) all leave opportunities to connect Alberta to both indigenous friends (prevalent in the Territories) and tidewater.

 

[Kirkhill]

Net Zero or no. Export pipelines or not. We need a work around for Line 5. That is not up for debate

That is a National Energy Plan pipeline.

It moves Alberta resources within Canada. Alberta then sells at the price Ontario is willing to pay. Just like the US pipelines tie Alberta to the price the States are willing to pay. TMX, and lines like that, from Prince Rupert or Churchill would get the world price.

That might not be to the liking of either US or Ontario consumers.

Just sayin'.

Cheers.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Line 5 runs through Minnesota and Michigan. It's only Canadian legs are from AB to Manitoba and from Sarnia to its terminus in Montreal.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Line 5 runs through Minnesota and Michigan. It's only Canadian legs are from AB to Manitoba and from Sarnia to its terminus in Montreal.

Need to replace Line 5 with an all Canadian route to Sarnia and a branch line to the St Lawrence east of Cornwall and then ship to Saint John for refining and/or ship direct to Europe.
After that, close down Line 5 completely.

 

[Kirkhill]

Need to replace Line 5 with an all Canadian route to Sarnia and a branch line to the St Lawrence east of Cornwall and then ship to Saint John for refining and/or ship direct to Europe.
After that, close down Line 5 completely.

Give a Hudson Bay outlet as well.

 

[YZT580]

Need to replace Line 5 with an all Canadian route to Sarnia and a branch line to the St Lawrence east of Cornwall and then ship to Saint John for refining and/or ship direct to Europe.
After that, close down Line 5 completely.

why Sarnia? If your destination is Montreal it would seem better to run from Sudbury down the Ottawa river valley rather than backtracking around Georgian Bay. Then use the UL/ZR line to feed southern Ontario. Either that or its the fleet of ice capable tankers from a Lakehead terminus to the Sarnia terminus whilst everyone argues over the environmental impact of the northern pipeline route.