Pipelines

[brihard]

One of the challenges of TMX is the location of the Terminal. It limits the size of ships that can use it and requires significant tug assist to get through the narrows. However, extending the pipeline out to someplace like Roberts Bank, then puts the pipeline into an area of high seismic risk and high political cost.

Stipulated. I merely suggest that most people, when they hear Pacific think Asia when talking trade.

Those California refineries could be getting their oil overland through pipelines but buying half-full tankers* from Vancouver seems to be at least cost-competitive. That suggests that the product has value and that pipeline capacity is constrained.

* As @Colin Parkinson noted draught limitations prevent fully loading the tankers. Vancouver and Eby are discussing dredging the channel deeper.

B.C., federal government support dredging Vancouver's Burrard Inlet, others opposed

British Columbia's energy minister is backing plans to dredge and deepen Vancouver's Burrard Inlet to accommodate fully loaded oil tankers, despite concerns from environmentalists, experts and First Nations.

ca.news.yahoo.com

There are a lot of small gains that can be made quickly.

The tanker station at the end of Transmountain just finished having its navigation buoys fixed up so they can move tankers at night instead of just the day. Clear increase in efficiency. Transmountain as well is looking at adding an additive (near immediate impact) and additional pumps (within the year or two impact) to move more oil at a time. These all taken together are expected to increase the flow to 200-300 thousand more bpd. (approx 22-33% increase in volume).
They also want to dredge to get the Aframax tankers to be able to filled all the way as now they can only be partially filled due to draft issues. That's a longer term project though.

Quebec is looking at a short run to a natural gas terminal in Saugany off the existing line. Thats a multi year project but not a long term one.

BC has changed its market focus for some critical minerals.

Internal trade barriers (at least some of them) are going to be dealt with in a short while, they've already agreed on truck safety and teaching certifications (no announcement but leaks). Alberta and BC have an alcohol agreement again, and I expect Ontario to open up the LCBO for everyones alcohol shortly. A lot of this preliminary stuff is recognizing other provinces standards as acceptable everywhere.

Pullling a couple posts from back in Feb and May over from the Tariff and Alberta separatism threads- we’ve occasionally had a sidebar going on TMX oil exports out of Burrard Inlet and the discussion of depth limiting loading.

Looks like dredging has been approved, and by end 2026/early 2027, the Aframax tankers will be able to leave full (~800k bbl) versus at 70% load. This will help improve the economics of oil exports to pacific markets via the Trans Mountain pipeline.

 

[Kirkhill]

Pullling a couple posts from back in Feb and May over from the Tariff and Alberta separatism threads- we’ve occasionally had a sidebar going on TMX oil exports out of Burrard Inlet and the discussion of depth limiting loading.

Looks like dredging has been approved, and by end 2026/early 2027, the Aframax tankers will be able to leave full (~800k bbl) versus at 70% load. This will help improve the economics of oil exports to pacific markets via the Trans Mountain pipeline.

Every little bit helps.
But is incrementalism going to get us where we need/want to be in a timely fashion?

If the Northern Gateway and/or the Eagle Spirit pilpelines had not been cancelled and blockaded in 2015 we would all be a lot richer today.

And the world seems to be slow in following the Net-Zero Movement to Jerusalem (for those not aware that is what we used to call Nirvana).

 

[brihard]

Every little bit helps.
But is incrementalism going to get us where we need/want to be in a timely fashion?

If the Northern Gateway and/or the Eagle Spirit pilpelines had not been cancelled and blockaded in 2015 we would all be a lot richer today.

And the world seems to be slow in following the Net-Zero Movement to Jerusalem (for those not aware that is what we used to call Nirvana).

Likely not. And actually if this move improves the cost effectiveness of exporting via TMX that may actually increase demand somewhat, filling capacity sooner. But that’s a good problem to have and improvement is still improvement.