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Decarbonization -

Carbon Capture is getting the press but decarbonization, for purposes of public relations spin, means reducing the amount of carbon spent extracting the carbon from the ground. Effectively it means more carbon to sell....

This is what Smith and Carney are talking about when they talk about pumping "decarbonized oil". A fig leaf.

We have some unexploited hydro potential left to assist in the endeavour but not enough.

One solution - uraniumization (coming soon to a dictionary near you - or thoriumization if you prefer).


“That’s one of my favourite things about being a scientist. It’s a genuine, incredible source of optimism,”
Really good green technology, he says, should instead be about replacing something with an alternative that is not only more environmentally friendly, but is actually better – like the LED light bulb. “That’s exactly the kind of technology that we should be implementing more of. It’s better than what it replaces in its function, and it’s cheaper and it’s better for the environment. It’s perfect. Who can argue with that?”
“There is a doom and gloom in society, and people are demoralised,” says Gregory. “I don’t want to diminish the very real problems that a lot of people face and the big challenges that the UK faces and the world faces, but we are actually capable of doing some really cool stuff when we put our minds to it.” That’s where his Apollo programme analogy comes in. “A massive, concerted effort on the nuclear power front would solve a lot of our problems. And it’s totally achievable.”

....

“... for the foreseeable future, nuclear power represents our best shot of sensibly achieving net zero and producing all of the electricity that we’re going to need by 2050 when we’re all in electric cars and using heat pumps,”
Take France – after the oil crisis of the 1970s, the country resolved to go nuclear to protect itself from future shocks. Under the slogan, “In France, we don’t have oil, but we have ideas,” 56 reactors were built which, at their peak, supplied 70 per cent of its energy.
In Britain, just 10 nuclear reactors like the Olkiluoto-3 reactor (Edit: 1600 MW for 3.3 BUSD ~ 1600 4 MW windmills at 25% efficiency) recently inaugurated in Finland would eliminate fossil fuels from the grid. The whole of Europe, he states, would need only 170 similarly sized reactors to achieve the same result; the rest of the world, 1,500. An even grander scheme imagines a global fleet of thousands of reactors which together, Gregory calculates, could meet the world’s energy demands for a thousand years.

If that seems like a lot, it’s because it is. “That’s the scale of the net zero challenge,”

....


What of global uranium supplies? By going nuclear, are we not simply swapping fossil fuel for a geological alternative? A calculation, which Gregory describes self-effacingly as having been done on the back of an envelope, suggests known reserves of uranium, thorium and recyclable fuel could provide power for 900 years. The 4.5 billion tonnes of uranium dissolved in the world’s oceans would do for the next quarter of a million.

“It’s a resource like any other – if you can’t grow it, you have to dig for it,” he says. “But there’s plenty there to tide us over until we get fusion working. And it’s actually quite geographically distributed around the world – it’s not like any one country or small group of countries has a monopoly on it, like with oil.”

....

A chunk of Gregory’s book is devoted to countering “radiophobia” – the undue fear of radiation that has been stoked by nuclear weapons testing, disasters and popular culture. There was a forensic examination of the impact of the Chernobyl disaster, which occurred when a reactor exploded during a safety test. Gregory estimates that the true death toll – even including cancers caused by radiation exposure – “likely falls in the region of a few hundred”.

The Fukushima disaster, he notes, has only been linked to a single death, and at Three Mile Island, the worst nuclear accident in American history, “nobody died, nobody was exposed to anything above background radiation in the surrounding population”.

“The people who work with radiation every day are the people who are least afraid of it,” he says. “We’re all living in radiation anyway, all the time. There’s no escaping it.” We pause to acknowledge the glare of the sun.

....


But what of the cost? Germany’s Energiewende – its transition away from nuclear and fossil fuels to renewables, which began at the turn of the millennium but accelerated after Fukushima – provides the perfect counterpoint. Nuclear, argues Gregory, provides much better value for money than any of its rivals. For the €500 billion Germany spent on its “failed energy transformation”, Gregory writes, it could have had 40 reactors like the one built in Finland.

“With that much electricity, plus the nuclear it switched off since 2000,
Germany could have entirely decarbonised its electricity supply, eliminated the need for unreliable wind turbines and solar panels, electrified all 49 million of its cars, and still have spare electricity to generate 1.7 million tonnes of green hydrogen every year.”

...

Personal point of preference.

I like freedom. Wires are tethers. They limit my movement and leave me at the mercy of the supplier. Gasoline gives me freedom. As do all the other carbon fuels, including trees.

Hydrogen, comparatively, is a pain in the butt to manage. But at least it leaves me untethered.
 
Personal point of preference.

I like freedom. Wires are tethers. They limit my movement and leave me at the mercy of the supplier. Gasoline gives me freedom. As do all the other carbon fuels, including trees.

Hydrogen, comparatively, is a pain in the butt to manage. But at least it leaves me untethered.
Unless you can DIY your energy, every method will have actual or metaphoric 'wires'.
 
Continued movement - this time from the First Nations side

Consent has a price tag.


Stephen Buffalo is a very constructive guy. He’s a man who seeks solutions, and he’s open to Prime Minister Mark Carney’s ambitious nation-building campaign. He also wants Carney and all Canadians to understand, though: Indigenous consent to these projects has a price tag.

“Give us a chance to make our own wealth,” says Stephen, long-time advocate for First Nations’ economic development and member of the Samson Cree Nation from Maskwacis, Alta.

“To be part of the mainstream and part of the economy and at the end of the day, everyone benefits: the proponent benefits, the government benefits, and we benefit, you know, First Nations that are participating.”

I ask Stephen: Do Carney’s announcements signal real change in the federal government’s paternalistic relationship with Indigenous communities? After watching the undermining of Jody Wilson-Raybould’s leadership by the previous Liberal administration, I’m wary.

He restates my question. “Can we take this as a reset?”

He grins, and answers: “I’m trying to.”

This isn’t the first time I’ve sat down with Stephen for a no-holds-barred conversation about how Indigenous leaders perceive what’s going on in the world. As CEO of the Indian Resource Council, Stephen speaks on behalf of 130 First Nations across Canada that have oil and gas production on their land, or the potential for production. He also speaks forcefully — as a 53-year-old father who wants to see his kids have the opportunity to thrive in mainstream society.

He endorses government-backed loan guarantees to enable Indigenous ownership in projects. For eight years, Stephen’s been on the board of Alberta Indigenous Opportunities Corporation, a provincial Crown corporation, and now we have a national loan guarantee program.

Last month, he explains, Canada Indigenous Loan Guarantee Corporation’s inaugural guarantee made possible the purchase of a 12.5 per cent ownership interest in Enbridge’s Westcoast natural gas pipeline system by 36 First Nations in B.C. On June 1, Carney doubled the federal Indigenous loan guarantee program from $5 billion to $10 billion — and opened it to sectors outside of energy and natural resources.

“But,” Stephen redirects the conversation, “back to the commodity that’s going through the pipe: What does it do for the (First) Nation, the province and the proponent?” It’s not enough, for Stephen, that Indigenous communities can invest in infrastructure; he wants them to be able to own an interest in the resource upside too.

“You know,” he says, “there’s fear-mongering in and around everything — be it coal mining, uranium mining, Ring of Fire. We are doing environmental disruption, no matter what we do. But at the end of the day … this thing called FPIC — consent — now has a price tag.
 
Carney, Starmer and Albanese are very much aligned with Macron's EU.

Not sure how committed any of them are to defence and energy shifts. There have been some notable rhetorical u-turns recently but I remain dubious about long games and principles.

There will be pipelines. Tanker moratoria will be modified and emission caps will be lifted

Ed Miliband is the greenest of the greenest acolytes and he has been singing from Carney's Net Zero song sheet for a long time. Where Starmer has routinely turned with the winds Miliband has held tough. Until his boss has told him otherwise.



Miliband opens door to North Sea drilling​

Energy Secretary preparing to change rules that blocked Rosebank and Jackdaw sites

The Energy Secretary has changed the rules on Britain’s greenhouse gas emissions, which were relied on by a court last autumn to block Equinor’s Rosebank oil field, off Shetland, and Shell’s Jackdaw gas field, off Aberdeen.

The move paves the way for the construction of the giant oil fields, and possibly opens the door for more stalled fossil fuel projects in British waters to be restarted.

This is a major development, not just for the UK but for the international NetZero movement.

The two North Sea sites, which were once described as “climate vandalism” by Mr Miliband, were blocked after environmentalists successfully challenged their oil and gas production licences.

Courts in Scotland backed claims that Mr Miliband’s predecessors were wrong to approve the projects without considering the greenhouse gas emissions the oil and gas would generate from being burnt.

The court ruling infuriated Shell and Equinor, which had already spent hundreds of millions of pounds on the projects, leading to meetings between their top executives and senior minister

On Thursday, as first revealed in The Telegraph, the Government released a draft of its new guidance on how to assess such emissions, effectively opening the door for the energy giants to regain their licences and start producing oil and gas.

Michael Shanks, the energy minister, said: “This new guidance offers clarity on the way forward for the North Sea oil and gas industry, following last year’s Supreme Court ruling.

This will affect Alberta oil and gas producers as well.

....

Labour will end new North Sea oil and gas exploration, June 2023
Hundreds of new oil and gas licenses will be granted in the UK, the (Conservative) Prime Minister has confirmed today (Monday 31 July).
Keir Starmer will do huge damage to the global fight against climate change if he gives in to political pressure and allows the development of a giant new oilfield in the North Sea, according to an analysis by the country’s leading environmental institute.

Chaired by Nicholas Stern, the Grantham Institute on Climate Change will fire a warning shot to ministers not to give the green light to the Rosebank and Jackdaw fields, after suggestions that the Treasury is now in favour of allowing drilling to maximise economic growth.

Lord Stern authored the pioneering 2006 review on climate change that helped to create national and international momentum for a global deal on combating climate change and is regarded as one of the leading experts in the field.

Stern is famous/infamous in his pursuit of NetZero. The guru is being ignored.

....


This is not Starmer's first u-turn

Sir Keir Starmer has insisted he had no choice but to ditch Labour's £28bn a year green investment pledge.


Sir Keir Starmer on Monday will announce a series of revisions to the planned 2030 ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars, allowing certain types of vehicles to be sold for longer while permitting smaller-scale manufacturers to keep producing petrol and diesel cars past that 2030 deadline.


....

The Anti-Thatcher

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Foreign interference?

....



Alberta’s point man on a massive western corridor project says he’s “cautiously optimistic” about getting rid of a major roadblock to the construction of a new West Coast oil and gas pipeline after visiting British Columbia’s northern coast.

Devin Dreeshen, the province’s minister of transportation and economic corridors, told the National Post that he was struck by the level of opposition among locals to the federal moratorium on northern B.C. oil tanker traffic, with several pointing out that the ban does nothing to stop tankers coming and going from nearby Alaska.

“When you go out there and you look at (the coastline), there’s almost an oil tanker a day going down from Alaska,” said Dreeshen.

“So, when you look at American tankers going north and south along the coastline, but us not allowing our Canadian tankers to go straight west, away from the coastline… The hypocrisy (of the situation) was pointed out by a lot of folks,” he noted.

“(People are) saying that we should be able to compete the same way the U.S. and other countries do, by being able to ship our oil out to our tankers.”

Dreeshen was in the northern port city of Prince Rupert, B.C., last week to strengthen Alberta’s ties to the critical Pacific trade outpost, joined by Alberta Indigenous Relations Minister Rajan Sawhney and members of Alberta’s Industrial Heartland Association.

Alberta already moves nearly $4 billion of merchandise through the Port of Prince Rupert annually — including propane, agricultural products and wood pulp — but both Dreeshen and his boss, Premier Danielle Smith, think that this number could be much bigger.


The moratorium was first called by Justin Trudeau shortly after he became prime minister in late 2015, effectively killing the Enbridge Northern Gateway pipeline to Kitimat, B.C. It was signed into law in 2019.

Chris Sankey, a member of the local Tsimshian community of Lax Kw’Alaams, says the tanker ban was rushed, and put into place without the adequate consultation of those affected.

“It didn’t give a platform for the Indigenous communities to get in the room and have a discussion, leadership to leadership … It was a decision that’s now come back to hurt Indigenous people’s ability to have an open and honest discussion about energy, infrastructure, and port development,” said Sankey.

“This is an opportunity to amend the ban (in a way) that aligns with Indigenous communities’ interests and concerns that we protect what we have and grow the economy.”


 
More fudging



The government’s independent climate advisers, the Climate Change Committee (CCC), have called for tight controls on any new North Sea production but have also found that the emissions case for a ban on new projects is “not clear cut”.

“The CCC has not been able to establish the net impact on global emissions of new UK oil and gas extraction,” the advisers said in a letter to former energy secretary Kwasi Kwarteng in 2022.

This is partly because the UK’s oil and gas has a relatively low carbon footprint relative to the countries that supply its gas imports. The UK will continue to be a net importer of fossil fuels by 2050 even when keeping to its net zero ambition.

Under the CCC’s forecasts, oil and gas will tumble from about 75% of the UK’s primary energy demand now to about 23% by 2050. But that would still mean the UK needs over 14m tonnes of oil equivalent each year – most of which will be imported. The UK is increasingly reliant on imports of liquified natural gas from the US and Qatar – which have a far higher carbon intensity than North Sea gas – as well as piped gas from Norway.

On the one hand the UK could help lower global emissions by replacing some of these fossil fuel imports with domestic hydrocarbons, but on the other hand any extra oil and gas produced by the UK could risk creating a global oversupply of fossil fuels “that would pose a risk to the aims of the Paris agreement”.

And this revision - 2021 "We're doomed I tell you"

The policy against new North Sea oil projects emerged after the global energy watchdog, the International Energy Agency, warned in 2021 that no new fossil projects could move ahead if the world hoped to meet its climate targets.

Here too the hard lines appear to be softening. By 2023 the Paris-based agency clarified its stance, stating that “no new conventional long-lead time oil projects” should be approved but that “investing in existing fossil fuel supply, however, is still needed”.

2023 - after a hard, cold, expensive winter following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
 
Foreign interference?

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The whole point of the original tanker "ban" was to ensure a tanker that broke down, was far enough out to sea to allow for a salvage vessel to get to them before it became a threat. That's been working fine. With the advent of LNGCanada, we now will have a lot more escort tugs in Northern BC waters. We can square the circle, by having the tankers required to be escorted out into open waters and escorted in. Drives up costs, but also creates a lot of good jobs.
 
The whole point of the original tanker "ban" was to ensure a tanker that broke down, was far enough out to sea to allow for a salvage vessel to get to them before it became a threat. That's been working fine. With the advent of LNGCanada, we now will have a lot more escort tugs in Northern BC waters. We can square the circle, by having the tankers required to be escorted out into open waters and escorted in. Drives up costs, but also creates a lot of good jobs.

So it was always a pretty screwed up rationale. If the problem was the same as with the LNG port, a lack of tugs, then the solution was and is the same: more tugs.

Write them into the contract. Hire locals to drive them.
 
Does the world still need oil?

The world used 55m barrels a day in the early 1970s but over 100m now, with demand set to rise significantly into the 2030s and beyond. Oil – and gas – remain absolute necessities to any form of modern life, across a fast-industrialising world.

Yes, the UK used 2.2m barrels daily half a century ago, and that’s fallen to 1.4m now – in part due to efficiencies and renewable energy, but mainly because our manufacturing sector has shrunk from over a fifth to less than a tenth of our economy.

Moreover, North Sea operations are now much diminished, not least because of punitive taxation and endless net zero regulation – so Britain is a net oil and gas importer.


Alberta produces 4 million barrels per day, 99% of which goes to the US, and wants to produce another 4 million barrels per day.
4 million barrels is 4% of the world's requirement and 3 times the amount that the UK needs.

The US consumes 21 million barrels per day of which 13 million barrels are domestically produced.
The short fall of 8 million barrels per day is imported.
If Alberta succeeds in doubling its out put then all of that shortfall could be made up from Alberta oil.
But that would make Alberta, and Canada, more dependent on a single market.

The US also exports 11 million barrels per day from that 21 million and its domestic production is falling.
 
And reversing Net Zero while not saying you are reversing Net Zero - cut Net Zero taxes.


Net zero taxes will be slashed for thousands of manufacturers as Sir Keir Starmer scrambles to save British industry from crippling electricity costs.

As part of the Government’s long-awaited Industrial Strategy, the Prime Minister is to cut power bills by up to 25pc for some 7,000 “electricity intensive” manufacturers, including car makers, aircraft factories and chemical plants.

From 2027, they will no longer have to pay the net zero levies that are normally added to their power bills, such as the renewables obligation, the feed-in-tariff and capacity market charges.

Electricity intensive - such as foundries that make steel that no one uses anymore.
 
So it was always a pretty screwed up rationale. If the problem was the same as with the LNG port, a lack of tugs, then the solution was and is the same: more tugs.

Write them into the contract. Hire locals to drive them.
Exactly what is happening with LNGCanada. But don't underestimate the challenges of hiring crew, it takes at least a decade for someone to become a large tugboat captain and longer to become a Pilot, which each ship also needs.

 
Exactly what is happening with LNGCanada. But don't underestimate the challenges of hiring crew, it takes at least a decade for someone to become a large tugboat captain and longer to become a Pilot, which each ship also needs.


Everybody has to start somewhere/sometime.
Prince Rupert and Kitimat both had working harbours. Presumably they both had some tugs and some pilots already?
 
Everybody has to start somewhere/sometime.
Prince Rupert and Kitimat both had working harbours. Presumably they both had some tugs and some pilots already?
Already straining, for deckhands, mates, engineers, Captains, Pilots and TC Inspectors. My friend was the Manager of the TC Marine Inspectors up there, who have to certify that cargos are loaded properly and inspect ships that come in. He was desperately short of people, always. He went down to the docks to talk to people, who laughed in his face when he told them what the pay was like.

When the last freighter was in trouble, there was no tug certified to go beyond 60nm of the coast. Right now the government is paying for two salvage tugs to remain on station.


 
Already straining, for deckhands, mates, engineers, Captains, Pilots and TC Inspectors. My friend was the Manager of the TC Marine Inspectors up there, who have to certify that cargos are loaded properly and inspect ships that come in. He was desperately short of people, always. He went down to the docks to talk to people, who laughed in his face when he told them what the pay was like.

When the last freighter was in trouble, there was no tug certified to go beyond 60nm of the coast. Right now the government is paying for two salvage tugs to remain on station.



That's what it all seems to come down to.

....

Funfact - my wife is a Food Scientist, just like I was. Currently she is working in a tiny start up in rural Alberta doing product development. She is earning less that 60 K. She is looking for other opportunities. She came across some US offers. 140 KUSD in Texas or Nebraska or Iowa. The going rate for Food Scientists generally in the States is 90 KUSD. 140 KUSD is 200 KCAD.

The US operates on a whole other level. Productivity creates wealth.
 
That's what it all seems to come down to.

....

Funfact - my wife is a Food Scientist, just like I was. Currently she is working in a tiny start up in rural Alberta doing product development. She is earning less that 60 K. She is looking for other opportunities. She came across some US offers. 140 KUSD in Texas or Nebraska or Iowa. The going rate for Food Scientists generally in the States is 90 KUSD. 140 KUSD is 200 KCAD.

The US operates on a whole other level. Productivity creates wealth.
Listening to our new US inlaws talk about medical insurance and 401K's. Your personal costs also go up significantly.
 
Listening to our new US inlaws talk about medical insurance and 401K's. Your personal costs also go up significantly.
True that, but the jobs come with medical plans. We didn't struggle when we lived down south. Medical may be higher but housing was lower, a lot lower in Indiana.
 
Does the world still need oil?




Alberta produces 4 million barrels per day, 99% of which goes to the US, and wants to produce another 4 million barrels per day.
4 million barrels is 4% of the world's requirement and 3 times the amount that the UK needs.

The US consumes 21 million barrels per day of which 13 million barrels are domestically produced.
The short fall of 8 million barrels per day is imported.
If Alberta succeeds in doubling its out put then all of that shortfall could be made up from Alberta oil.
But that would make Alberta, and Canada, more dependent on a single market.

The US also exports 11 million barrels per day from that 21 million and its domestic production is falling.
I really don't want to see any more oil going to the US, diversify, put few eggs into 1 basket and on top of that, re-sell/refine more here and sell that refined product elsewhere for a higher profit margin.
 
Listening to our new US inlaws talk about medical insurance and 401K's. Your personal costs also go up significantly.
What about 401k's? Just a different version of a RSP - with access to firms that routinely produce better investment returns than the vast majority of CDN firms, with much lower MER's (fees).
 
What about 401k's? Just a different version of a RSP - with access to firms that routinely produce better investment returns than the vast majority of CDN firms, with much lower MER's (fees).
More volatile and they lost a huge chunk of it when the firm went belly up, as employers offer stock options instead of cash. I am not an expert on it, but my wife and I were looking at each other and thankfully for what we have.
 
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