PMJT: The First 100 Days

[Kirkhill]

.....Now this report does nothing to help the pipelines or the government case. When they told us the focus for all departments would change from prescriptive regulating at the front end to more compliance and enforcement, I said it was going to cost far more than what was costing us doing the front end work, then they cut budgets..... :

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/audit-finds-national-energy-board-failing-to-enforce-pipeline-safety-conditions-1.2752307   

Colin, I was going to tackle the technicalities - but decided against it as it would all be supposition on my part.

I will tackle the highlighted bit.  Having had a fair bit of experience checking out regulations in the food industry in multiple jurisdictions over the years, and also working with construction codes, the change away from the "Prescriptive" is universal and endemic. 

It has happened in the US, Europe and Japan amongst others.  It is the result (IMHO) of lawyers and politicians obfuscating in the name of universal standards.

Every jurisdiction used to have technical standards, approved solutions, which could be incorporated and to which you could engineer making life simple (at least locally). 

But that created two major problems:

The government was liable financially if their authorized solution was found technically incompetent;

The engineers had to re-engineer systems for every jurisdiction driving up prices and inhibiting technology transfer.

Now, at least in my field, the onus is entirely on the operator to decide if a solution is "reasonable" (a favourite word in all the new regulations) and then develop SOPs to manage that solution.

The inspectors in my field, the food industry, now focus on:

Do you have paperwork to support your selection?
Do you have paperwork describing your SOPs?
Do you have paperwork detailing your compliance with your SOPs?
Do you have paperwork describing how you manage non-compliance?
Do you have paperwork describing the corrective actions taken?

The "inspectors" of old used to understand the processes and technology - often being plant personnel that moved on to government.  Now, by and large, they are clerks.

WRT the pipelines -

The pipelines MUST be built.  Just like the railways HAD TO be built.  I am afraid that you cannot convince me that a liquid pipeline is any more likely to break than a gas pipeline due to external forces.  If you consider that corridors are acceptable for gas then, in my view, they are acceptable for liquids.

The existing mountain corridors have been in service for decades, and the railways for longer. How many disruptions of service have there been in that time due to seismic activity?  With respect to the pipelines the vast majority of breaks occur in urban settings where contractors suddenly discover pipelines that are clearly identified.  Not many breaks happen in the boonies.

When the NEB identifies 209 issues with the Northern Gateway proposal that is a good thing because it clarifies what has to be done to make the customer happy.  Once the problems are defined then solutions can be found.  They cannot be used as an excuse for inaction.

Your protections are perceived in an altogether less altruistic light on this side of the mountains.  Your scenery.  Our bread.

 

[Edward Campbell]

... It is a little known fact but the St-Lawrence Valley is an actual seismic activity high spot. The valley is actually a fault between the plate that supports the Canadian Shield and the one covered by the Appalachian mountain ridge. There are on average 400 to 450 earthquake a year in the Montreal region - the large majority of such small level that they feel like a heavy truck driving by - no more. But the return period (probability) for an earthquake of 5.0 and above magnitude is one every forty years (and we had the last one 1988). That is one of the reason they are building a new Champlain bridge BTW. They could have fixed the one already there to its original standard, but it is too complex and expansive to bring it up to current seismic protection levels.

That's an excellent point, OGBD, and one I am sure (more than just hope) the NEB will hoist on board when it imposes literally hundreds of conditions on any new pipeline it approves.

But, if folks can build 100 story skyscrapers to withstand both the strongest typhoons ever recorded and the once in 2,500 year earthquakes, then surely good engineers can manage to build a pipeline that will withstand the earthquakes that are common in Quebec magnified by, let's just say, one or even two orders of magnitude.

Taipei 101

Ditto, by the way, for both Chek Lap Kok and Changi airports, both of which are built on (largely) artificial or partially reclaimed islands that have been strengthened (especially the connecting links) to make them resistant to potential earthquake damage. Again, I'm sure good engineers can accomplish this sort of thing for pipelines in Canada, too.

But I suspect that Denis Coderre has a price, and my guess is that it's not really too steep, and I suppose that PM Trudeau will find a way to shovel piles of someone else's money into Montreal's (and M. Coderre's) pockets.

 

[quadrapiper]

They are not there to be likeable, but to have the qualities necessary to lead our nation.

If that means seeing to the quiet, efficient, competent administration of national services, absolutely. If that means delivering very sincere soundbites, with no purpose than to be heard, not so much. Would be quite happy to hear from the PM only when there's something of substance to announce, or when there's a question either to be posed to the country (e.g. what to do with assisted dying) or posed to the PM.

Most of the things that actually, really, matter will take at least a year to get off paper: civil infrastructure spending, the CSC, the CF-18 successor, etc. On the Cabinet front, it feels like a pendulum moment: the last lot gave the impression of not necessarily giving value for money, where this contingent might be a bit madly off in all directions.

 

[Kirkhill]

OGBD - I can agree with every element in your post.  And I do appreciate the local level of support in Quebec.

I also agree with ERC on the ability of the engineering community to find suitable solutions.  The only real question becomes how much money will it cost to solve the problems to everyone's satisfaction and can the project still turn a profit.

WRT Quebec Bashing -

Quebec (And BC) Bashing are only necessary if they present as walls. M. Coderre certainly presented as such. And while he and Nenshi don't have standing in this debate neither do the natives, the environmentalists, or the provincial premiers or the mayor of Burnaby - but all of them seem to have managed to get their oar in anyway.

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

Chris: Unfortunately, and whether you and I like it or not (more likely not - for both of us), the legal state of affairs in Canada gives the Natives a right to be consulted whenever natural resources are concerned. That is why the N.E.B. has published its list of Native groups with standing for the Energy East Project, for instance.

As for the Premiers, they don't have a say before the N.E.B., where inter-provincial projects are concerned, but those projects do have intra-provincial components that require provincial authorizations, particularly where environmental protection is concerned. On those aspects, they have a say. That is one of the reason, BTW, why Premier Couillard's sole comment on Energy East here in Quebec related to meeting our environment requirements - nothing else. Though, in answer to a journalist question, he did mention that in his view, after the Energy East group decided to modify its project to remove any port facilities on the St Lawrence, the lack of permanent jobs and direct benefit for Quebec would make it more difficult for the N.E.B. to approve the remaining project.

As for the Engineering aspect of things, I personally have no doubt that proper systems with the environmental protection required can and will be offered by the Energy East group pushing the project. However, people better be ready: It will not be a zero risk project - no such level is possible in human construction.

 

[Kirkhill]

Chris: Unfortunately, and whether you and I like it or not (more likely not - for both of us), the legal state of affairs in Canada gives the Natives a right to be consulted whenever natural resources are concerned. That is why the N.E.B. has published its list of Native groups with standing for the Energy East Project, for instance.

....

They have a right to be consulted.  And they have a right to fair compensation. They don't have a right to block.  Just like any other citizen.

And I agree with you on the risk.  But as I noted on the $60 a barrel thread, Montreal and Quebec are already assuming great risks, greater than the pipeline is likely to present, by transporting 200 car trains over 100 year old bridges, not to mention the risks associated with large trains going through urban areas.

Lac Megantic obviously comes to mind as does the Mississauga rail disaster ca 1979.

 

[PuckChaser]

Paul Wells from Maclean's takes a shot at defining Trudeau's first 100 days in office:

http://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/justin-trudeaus-first-100-days/

Justin Trudeau’s first 100 days

From free-falling oil to terrorism, the Liberal government has already had its share of woes

Paul Wells

January 27, 2016

There have been times, as the Justin Trudeau era in Canadian politics approaches its 100th day, that the new Prime Minister has resembled Wile E. Coyote in the old Warner Brothers cartoons: two metres out from the edge of a cliff, eyes locked on a tantalizing prize just out of reach, suspended in mid-air, managing somehow not to fall. Not yet.

That wee milestone, by the way, falls on Wednesday, Jan. 27: One hundred days since Trudeau’s Liberals won 184 seats in the election of Oct. 19, 2015, a victory that gave the Liberals a solid majority in the House of Commons. (If you count, instead, from the sunny November day when Trudeau and his cabinet strode up the highway to Rideau Hall to swear in the new government, then the 100-day mark won’t come until Feb. 12. But already some patterns have been set, so why wait?)

 

[Altair]

http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/don-braid-trudeau-aims-to-rebuild-confidence-first-energy-east-later

Sir John A. Macdonald of beloved schoolroom memory was all for the national railroad, but it didn’t prove much easier to build than a modern pipeline, even though things were simpler in the days when a prime minister just handed the first contract to a guy who gave $350,000 to his election campaign.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s world is more complicated by far.

He did show some skilful control over it Tuesday, both by cooling the escalating West-East rhetoric and even prying a grudging maybe for the Energy East oil pipeline out of Montreal Mayor Denis Coderre.

Harper’s boosterism discredited the approval system and gave objectors the idea that only activism would work, which it certainly did.

But does this prime minister actually like Energy East, or Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain pipeline expansion, or something?

We haven’t a clue where Trudeau will come down on this, beyond his vague assertions that he’s “feeling very good about our capacity … to get our resources to market in an environmentally sensitive way.”

He’s intentionally stepping back, letting emotions cool while he recreates an approval process now hopelessly stalled and stymied. The new one will likely be more complex and take even longer — but it could actually work, at least in geological time.

TransCanada's Keystone pipeline facilities are seen in Hardisty, Alta., on Friday, Nov. 6, 2015. The latest hurdle in the status of pipelines came this week when an organization representing 82 Montreal-area municipalities came out against TransCanada Corp.'s Energy East Pipeline, drawing a sharp rebuke from politicians in Alberta and Saskatchewan.

The latest hurdle in the status of pipelines came this week when an organization representing 82 Montreal-area municipalities came out against TransCanada Corp.'s Energy East Pipeline, drawing a sharp rebuke from politicians in Alberta and Saskatchewan.

This sounds like another full regulatory layer on top of the already complex National Energy Board regime. It would take many years longer before either the western or eastern lines could possibly be completed.

It’s also possible that wider environmental and climate assessments will make these projects look dubious.

The Pembina Institute, whose Toronto UnGala event was attended last week by both Alberta Premier Rachel Notley and Ontario’s Kathleen Wynne, estimates that producing the crude to fill the Energy East pipeline “would generate up to 32-million tonnes of additional greenhouse gases each year — equivalent to doubling the number of cars on Ontario’s roads.”

Producing the same crude for shipment by rail could produce equivalent extra emissions, of course, as well as yet more profits for Macdonald’s creation, CP Rail. And the Alberta NDP has promised a hard cap on oilsands emissions at 100 megatonnes per year.

But those mitigating points will surely be lost in the big numbers that emerge when a project is taken in climate-change isolation. The anti-oilsands lobby, aiming at nothing less than an industry shutdown, will have even more telling arguments.

None of this considers the rights of indigenous people, safety, spills, tankers, local pitchfork uprisings and even the acceptability of bitumen, which British Columbia Premier Christy Clark has still not acknowledged is a legitimate product for shipment.

There’s also the inconvenient truth that the National Energy Board, built for a more relaxed era, itself faces heavy criticism, most recently for failure to track compliance with conditions for pipeline approvals.

Such problems have undermined the board’s credibility, making its formal approval of Northern Gateway (remember that?) almost irrelevant.

Into this apparently hopeless mess steps a new prime minister. And there are signs that he might, just might, be able to break this logjam by building a new and more credible approval system.

First, he completely rejects ex-prime minister Stephen Harper’s cheerleader approach to both national and international pipelines. Harper’s boosterism discredited the approval system and gave objectors the idea that only activism would work, which it certainly did.

By sharp contrast, Trudeau says: “It’s not up to the federal government to decide in advance which projects it wants to do or what it wants to promote.” Rather, the government should be “a responsible mediator.”

There’s logic to that. The oilpatch is used to political leaders who say “yes” to their big ideas. But there’s also the chance that a prime minister could say “no.”

By stepping back, and respecting a wider approval system, Trudeau could restore confidence in how these things are judged and decided.

It sure isn’t Sir John A. Macdonald’s way. But it could get a major pipeline built, eventually.

I will laugh very hard if more pipelines get built under Trudeau than under harper.

I'm all seriousness, the Harper approach of trying to force pipelines, calling them "no brainers" didn't work worth a damn. Let's see if trudeau's approach bears fruit before ripping him a new one? No?

As for meeting with mayors, he's met with them before. John Tory for one, and as far as I can tell he wasn't a ex liberal.

 

[Jed]

http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/don-braid-trudeau-aims-to-rebuild-confidence-first-energy-east-later

I will laugh very hard if more pipelines get built under Trudeau than under harper.

I'm all seriousness, the Harper approach of trying to force pipelines, calling them "no brainers" didn't work worth a damn. Let's see if trudeau's approach bears fruit before ripping him a new one? No?

As for meeting with mayors, he's met with them before. John Tory for one, and as far as I can tell he wasn't a ex liberal.

I sincerely hope you have the opportunity to laugh long and hard. In fact, I will hold you to it and check back in four years. This is one outcome that I would happily 'eat crow' on. Would you be willing to do the same?

 

[Rocky Mountains]

I'm all seriousness, the Harper approach of trying to force pipelines, calling them "no brainers" didn't work worth a damn. Let's see if trudeau's approach bears fruit before ripping him a new one? No?

I don't recall Harper trying to force anything.  The Northern Gateway Pipeline submitted a request to the National Energy Board which held hearings and approved the project with conditions.  Based on the National Energy Board approval, the applicable minister approved the project.  I am not sure where Harper fits into the process other than expressing a disinterest in personal involvement.  He was clearly in favour of the project but sat back and let the system operate as it should.

 

[PuckChaser]

I will laugh very hard if more pipelines get built under Trudeau than under harper.

I'm all seriousness, the Harper approach of trying to force pipelines, calling them "no brainers" didn't work worth a damn. Let's see if trudeau's approach bears fruit before ripping him a new one? No?

I'm positive that if Trudeau told all the environmentalists that the pipelines were part of his "Real Change" plan, with an absolute copy of Harper's position, they'd allow them to be built because it wasn't Stephen Harper asking. I think what Trudeau is going to find very quickly that the people aren't opposing pipelines, they're opposing fossil fuels because they think if they believe real hard, we can jump 30 years into the future and have hydrogen fuel cells as an economically viable technology for cars/trucks/planes/ships.

If you're referring to the newly release "upstream greenhouse gas" emissions requirement, we'll never get any pipelines built. That is, unless the companies spend millions doing studies to show what everyone with a clue knows, that driving hundreds of trains spewing diesel fumes across the country contributes more to GHG emissions than tossing it into a pipeline. The oil is going to move, whether the environmentalists want it or not. How it moves is what we can control, and we should push to have the pipelines built ASAP.

 

[George Wallace]

I'm positive that if Trudeau told all the environmentalists that the pipelines were part of his "Real Change" plan, with an absolute copy of Harper's position, they'd allow them to be built because it wasn't Stephen Harper asking.

So true.  The "Hate Harper crowd" would likely do just that.  All of it was in "spite".

.... How it moves is what we can control, and we should push to have the pipelines built ASAP.

Wait!  That would be common sense.  A "no brainer".  >

 

[jollyjacktar]

Wait!  That would be common sense.  A "no brainer".  >

Then almost any Liberal should be able to follow the logic.  Maybe...






(Edited to modify post by adding missing " ] " .  )

 

[Rifleman62]

Kat Stevens

Albertans are still Canadians, and will do what Canadians have done forever; *****, howl and moan about the unfairness of it all, then roll over, bite the pillow, and take it.

You get what you tolerate.

Canadians are complacent.

 

[Kat Stevens]

Pretty much what I said.

 

[Cloud Cover]

I don't recall Harper trying to force anything.  The Northern Gateway Pipeline submitted a request to the National Energy Board which held hearings and approved the project with conditions.  Based on the National Energy Board approval, the applicable minister approved the project.  I am not sure where Harper fits into the process other than expressing a disinterest in personal involvement.  He was clearly in favour of the project but sat back and let the system operate as it should.

The Northern Gateway project was conceived, designed and presented in the very first instance to the government that was in power prior to Mr. Harper winning his first minority.  The man supposedly out of power at that time but nonetheless still the most powerful man in the country served his clients as the chief lobbyist/strategist/backroom deal maker on behalf of Petro China, a man named none other than  Jean Chretien. The man that was in political power and most "un-energetic" about it (initially) was --- Paul Martin. The man in the official opposition who had concerns about the Chinese being involved... Stephen Harper. The man who was totally opposed to it, because he had no understanding of economics and national pride was Jack Layton. I would put PMJT in the same camp as Layton on this one.

I honestly don't believe that Harper gave a crap one way or another about it save and except for the fact that it was his duty as an Alberta MP to focus on his riding constituency economic concerns, which was of course the GateWay (and also KeystoneXL*). But as PM he saw this the same way Martin did- a pain in the arse that was always destined to go nowhere. But of course, that is an inconvenient truth nobody in the Liberal Party, the environmentalist lobby or the Media would ever admit to.

* not to be confused with Keystone Pipeline, which was approved and built. It was the Martin government that first reviewed proposals of Keystone XL project, but with little Chinese involvement (hence no profits for the business concerns of certain out of office Liberal party member(s)) it was near certain that Canadian Unions (the CEP in particular) would be in receipt of what turned out to be pretty solid advice on how to kill off the project.    That is the dirty face of Canadian pipeline politics.

 

 

[Altair]

I sincerely hope you have the opportunity to laugh long and hard. In fact, I will hold you to it and check back in four years. This is one outcome that I would happily 'eat crow' on. Would you be willing to do the same?

Yup, if I'm still around and not banned permanently I will certainly be willing to see the outcome of this.

 

[PuckChaser]

Yup, if I'm still around and not banned permanently I will certainly be willing to see the outcome of this.

If Kilo lasted this long, you should be fine until at least the next election.

 

[Kirkhill]

Yup, if I'm still around and not banned permanently I will certainly be willing to see the outcome of this.

Jeez Altair, how else are we going to find out what Montreal thinks?  And I look forward to educating you in the niceties of the Scottish tongue.....  [

 

[Altair]

Jeez Altair, how else are we going to find out what Montreal thinks?  And I look forward to educating you in the niceties of the Scottish tongue.....  [

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