• Thanks for stopping by. Logging in to a registered account will remove all generic ads. Please reach out with any questions or concerns.

Political impacts of Ukraine war

I have to wonder what Trump is thinking, if those minerals are that important, than making sure they do not fall under Russian control would also be extremely important. but his current line of action places those mineral deposits at risk of falling under Russian control or their abilty to prevent safe access.
Not if his plan is to bring Russia into the US camp against China and have Russia sell the same minerals to the US over selling them to China.
 
France getting more serious about European capabilities relevant to the UKR-RUS war…

They need to station them in Poland....that would make Russia sit up and notice. Right on the border of Russia (Kaliningrad oblast).
 
It's not that he has to win, it's that other people have to lose.

Or is it just that he has to see his name in the news?

He pretty much grew up (if he did, indeed, grow up) on Page 6.


I am starting to think he would rather be loudly wrong than quietly right.
 
Opinion piece on the Trump deal for Ukraine. Bunch of snips below, more on the article:

-The deal gives the U.S. access to much-needed rare earth minerals and helps us recoup some of our investment in the Ukraine war. A win the the US.

-It helps rebuild Ukraine’s economy and infrastructure. It puts thousands of American engineers, miners, builders and even bankers on the ground in eastern Ukraine, serving as a security guarantee to Ukraine. A win for Ukraine.

-It gives the U.S. an opening to a better relationship with Russia with an aim to driving a wedge in the anti-American Sino-Russian alliance. A win for the U.S. and our allies.

-It gives Russia an off-ramp to a difficult war and holds open the possibility of improved relations with the U.S., including in trade and investment. A win for Russia

An American economic presence will serve as a guarantor of Ukrainian independence and security, and a deterrent to another Russian invasion. Putin is not going to kill thousands of American civilians to get to Kyiv.

In some ways, an American economic presence in Ukraine is even more significant than a military presence. As we saw with Biden and Afghanistan, an American president can order the sudden withdrawal of military forces (
as he states he's ok with a minor incursion - QV). Private American companies with long-term projects and contracts would be in Ukraine for the long haul.

Under the Trump plan, five years after the fighting stops, Ukraine could be a prosperous country, with an economy and society fully integrated with the U.S. and the West. On the other hand, Russia’s post-war prospects are bleak. No one will rush to rebuild Russia’s economy. Its energy export revenues will fall precipitously, with the lower oil and natural gas global prices brought about by Trump’s new policy of American energy dominance.

Finally, Trump’s peace plan holds open the possibility of an improved American relationship with Russia. We have had no diplomatic contact with Russia in the three years since Putin invaded Ukraine.
The greatest strategic and existential threat to the United States isn’t from Ukraine, or the Middle East, or even Russia. It is from a Sino-Russian alliance aimed at the United States. Our refusal to talk to Russia for the last three years is one reason Putin has grown closer to Chinese President Xi. In the early 1970s, my boss, Henry Kissinger, drove a wedge between the anti-American Sino-Soviet alliance by opening relations with China. Potentially, Trump could do the same thing today, this time by reopening relations with Russia.

 
Opinion piece on the Trump deal for Ukraine. Bunch of snips below, more on the article:

-The deal gives the U.S. access to much-needed rare earth minerals and helps us recoup some of our investment in the Ukraine war. A win the the US.

-It helps rebuild Ukraine’s economy and infrastructure. It puts thousands of American engineers, miners, builders and even bankers on the ground in eastern Ukraine, serving as a security guarantee to Ukraine. A win for Ukraine.

-It gives the U.S. an opening to a better relationship with Russia with an aim to driving a wedge in the anti-American Sino-Russian alliance. A win for the U.S. and our allies.

-It gives Russia an off-ramp to a difficult war and holds open the possibility of improved relations with the U.S., including in trade and investment. A win for Russia

An American economic presence will serve as a guarantor of Ukrainian independence and security, and a deterrent to another Russian invasion. Putin is not going to kill thousands of American civilians to get to Kyiv.

In some ways, an American economic presence in Ukraine is even more significant than a military presence. As we saw with Biden and Afghanistan, an American president can order the sudden withdrawal of military forces (
as he states he's ok with a minor incursion - QV). Private American companies with long-term projects and contracts would be in Ukraine for the long haul.

Under the Trump plan, five years after the fighting stops, Ukraine could be a prosperous country, with an economy and society fully integrated with the U.S. and the West. On the other hand, Russia’s post-war prospects are bleak. No one will rush to rebuild Russia’s economy. Its energy export revenues will fall precipitously, with the lower oil and natural gas global prices brought about by Trump’s new policy of American energy dominance.

Finally, Trump’s peace plan holds open the possibility of an improved American relationship with Russia. We have had no diplomatic contact with Russia in the three years since Putin invaded Ukraine.
The greatest strategic and existential threat to the United States isn’t from Ukraine, or the Middle East, or even Russia. It is from a Sino-Russian alliance aimed at the United States. Our refusal to talk to Russia for the last three years is one reason Putin has grown closer to Chinese President Xi. In the early 1970s, my boss, Henry Kissinger, drove a wedge between the anti-American Sino-Soviet alliance by opening relations with China. Potentially, Trump could do the same thing today, this time by reopening relations with Russia.


Who says that granting the US mineral rights will put "thousands of American engineers, miners, builders and even bankers on the ground in eastern Ukraine"? They are being granted in effect "royalties" on any economic output. Ukrainian companies and workers working on the ground to pour profits into their American partner companies.
 
Who says that granting the US mineral rights will put "thousands of American engineers, miners, builders and even bankers on the ground in eastern Ukraine"? They are being granted in effect "royalties" on any economic output. Ukrainian companies and workers working on the ground to pour profits into their American partner companies.

You will have to take that up with the author, a former Deputy National Security Advisor to Trump and presently a board member of the American Conservative Union. I would hazard she is correct and their would be American's on the ground working.
 

If that was the case then he might want to take it up with his State Department. It was done not just with the complicity of George C. Marshall but with his active encouragement. The Americans were some of the loudest opponents of Brexit because it would harm the European Project.
 
The EU may not have been formed to screw the US, but...


The EU sold roughly $200bn (£158bn) more in goods to the US per year than it bought on average in the three years to 2023, according to investment bank Nomura.

He added: “They don’t accept our cars, they don’t accept, essentially, our farm products, they use all sorts of reasons why not, and we accept everything of them and we have about a $300 billion deficit with the European Union.”

The US’s trade deficit with the US hit a record high last year. The EU imported €333.3 billion (£277 billion) of goods from the US in 2024, while the US bought €531.6 billion (£440billion) worth of items from Europe, according to data from Eurostat.

531 - 333 Euros = 200 Euros or 210 USD, not 300 USD.

It appears that Trump is doing the same to the EU that he is to Canada. Our calculations suggest a number closer to 100 BUSD than the 200 BUSD that Trump claims.

But we are somewhere between 20 and 80 BUSD short on defence expenditures according to Trump.

Likewise the Europeans are short on covering off their defence. An article read recently, in a European paper, asserted that the US covers 1/3 to 1/2 of Europe's defence costs. That seems to be borne out by this article.


The fiscal aspect

European defence spending will have to increase substantially from the current level of about 2 percent of GDP. An initial assessment suggests an increase by about €250 billion annually (to around 3.5 percent of GDP) is warranted in the short term, though this computation is not straightforward. Larger orders should mean that production processes become more efficient, bringing down unit prices. However, a rapid demand increase will certainly drive up prices in the short-term. Overall, however, unit prices should fall as order volumes increase. For example, since February 2022, Germany has ordered 105 Leopard II tanks for its own use at a unit price of €28 million. This could add up to a fiscal cost of €40 billion if Europe were to order 1,400 tanks at that price but in fact unit prices should fall substantially.

It may be necessary to spike the Euro budget in the short term. It may be possible to pull back a bit over time once the warehouses are properly filled and an effective force is trained and made available.

And on effective forces

Military coordination

The combat power of 300,000 US troops is substantially greater than the equivalent number of European troops distributed over 29 national armies
. US troops would come in large, cohesive, corps-sized units with a unified command and control tighter even than NATO joint command. Furthermore, US troops are backed by the full might of American strategic enablers, including strategic aviation and space assets, which European militaries lack.

Europe, including the UK, currently has 1.47 million active-duty military personnel (SIPRI, 2024) but effectiveness is hampered by the lack of a unified command. NATO works under the assumption that the Supreme Allied Commander Europe is a top US general – but that can only function if the US takes a leadership role and provides strategic enablers.

Therefore, Europe faces a choice: either increase troop numbers significantly by more than 300,000 to make up for the fragmented nature of national militaries, or find ways to rapidly enhance military coordination. Failure to coordinate means much higher costs and individual efforts will likely be insufficient to deter the Russian military. Yet collective insurance means moral hazard and coordination problems need to be credibly solved.

My money always bets on inefficiencies. It the Euros want to replace 300,000 cohesive Americans then they should plan on raising 500,000 local troops organized under half-a-dozen local national Corps (UK, France, Germany, Poland, Italy for starters)
 
The EU may not have been formed to screw the US, but...






531 - 333 Euros = 200 Euros or 210 USD, not 300 USD.

It appears that Trump is doing the same to the EU that he is to Canada. Our calculations suggest a number closer to 100 BUSD than the 200 BUSD that Trump claims.

But we are somewhere between 20 and 80 BUSD short on defence expenditures according to Trump.

Likewise the Europeans are short on covering off their defence. An article read recently, in a European paper, asserted that the US covers 1/3 to 1/2 of Europe's defence costs. That seems to be borne out by this article.




It may be necessary to spike the Euro budget in the short term. It may be possible to pull back a bit over time once the warehouses are properly filled and an effective force is trained and made available.

And on effective forces



My money always bets on inefficiencies. It the Euros want to replace 300,000 cohesive Americans then they should plan on raising 500,000 local troops organized under half-a-dozen local national Corps (UK, France, Germany, Poland, Italy for starters)

The EU might not survive the Trump Presidency....


The Transatlantic Alliance in the Age of Trump: The Coming Collisions​



Introduction​

The United States and Europe are on a collision course that will fundamentally alter and transform transatlantic relations. It is not just one issue that will trigger a clash but seemingly every issue. From NATO to Ukraine, climate to trade, tech regulations to China, the United States and Europe will likely clash, repeatedly and continuously. The impact of these collisions will be transformative for transatlantic relations and will reshape the transatlantic alliance. Europe is now staring at the beginning of a new post-American age. Since the end of World War II, Europe has been inextricably tied to the United States. While there have occasionally been rifts in the transatlantic fabric, these were always mendable. But the clashes that are coming may not be, and they may forever change the nature of transatlantic relations. Europe is now reckoning with a potential future where it may have to chart its own course.

 
The EU - A Hard Crust and a Soft Interior?

JEF - Visegrad - Ukraine - Turkey? The Crust?

Western Europe? The Soft Interior?

I've gone over JEF too many times. Boring.
JEF has found common ground with Poland and Czechia of the Visegrad group. Hungary is a problem child and Slovakia is variable.
Romania, Bulgaria and Moldova - I suspect - feel weak and need a strong patron to support them. They are going to need something really strong to replace what they thought they had with the Americans.

Is this a possibility?

Denmark (Greenland), Iceland, Denmark (Faroes), UK, Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Ukraine, Moldova, Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey?

Is there enough strength there to support a strong independent foreign policy?

Everything west of that crust, to my mind seems to lack cohesion. They have nothing to focus their attention.
 
Back
Top