Political impacts of Ukraine war

[Eaglelord17]

Can the Ukrainians push back Russia to the border without foreign boots on the ground, relying on aid and equipment alone?
Can they do it before they run out of manpower?

Can Russia take Ukraine with the equipment and manpower they currently possess? They are already relying on North Korean ammo and manpower.

It isn't just a matter of Ukraine lacking supplies, Russia isn't exactly doing great either. They can't even evict the Ukrainians from Russia, do they have the combat power to keep advancing at this exceptionally slow and costly rate? They took only 4168sq/km in 2024. At a cost of approximately 427,000 Russians killed or wounded. Not to mention that none of that 4168sq/km is of any particular strategic value. It looks good if your trying to look better at the bargaining table (much like the foolish attacks right at the end of WWI), but if there is no table (which without security guarantees for Ukraine there won't be) it might have been just a waste.

Is this sustainable for Russia?

 

[OldSolduer]

he has also consistently undermined Taiwan verbally. I know were not supposed to take what he says seriously but...

I understand what you are saying. It is like listening to a three year old have tantrums when they don't get their way.

BUT this three year old - DJT - controls nuclear weapons. I only hope that the military remembers they swore allegiance to the Constitution and not the office of the President. As for obeying orders of the President - they have to be legal orders. I am no lawyer but I would think there are some who would not obey His Donaldship.

Oath of Enlistment​

I, _____, do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic; that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same; and that I will obey the orders of the President of the United States and the orders of the officers appointe

 

[suffolkowner]

I understand what you are saying. It is like listening to a three year old have tantrums when they don't get their way.

BUT this three year old - DJT - controls nuclear weapons. I only hope that the military remembers they swore allegiance to the Constitution and not the office of the President. As for obeying orders of the President - they have to be legal orders. I am no lawyer but I would think there are some who would not obey His Donaldship.

Oath of Enlistment​

I, _____, do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic; that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same; and that I will obey the orders of the President of the United States and the orders of the officers appointe

disobeying an active order to do something is one thing. No ones going to order the US military to defend Taiwan over the Presidents objections. Taiwans on its own

 

[suffolkowner]

Can Russia take Ukraine with the equipment and manpower they currently possess? They are already relying on North Korean ammo and manpower.

It isn't just a matter of Ukraine lacking supplies, Russia isn't exactly doing great either. They can't even evict the Ukrainians from Russia, do they have the combat power to keep advancing at this exceptionally slow and costly rate? They took only 4168sq/km in 2024. At a cost of approximately 427,000 Russians killed or wounded. Not to mention that none of that 4168sq/km is of any particular strategic value. It looks good if your trying to look better at the bargaining table (much like the foolish attacks right at the end of WWI), but if there is no table (which without security guarantees for Ukraine there won't be) it might have been just a waste.

Is this sustainable for Russia?

the non US west need to replace the US contribution of 20-30%. Mostly a munitions problem. Might as well use that Russian money

 

[Brad Sallows]

That aged like milk in August

I didn't read anything in that about mutual defence commitments or other characteristics of an alliance. Perhaps I missed something, and you could point it out.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Can Russia take Ukraine with the equipment and manpower they currently possess?

Is this sustainable for Russia?

"Probably not" is the likely answer to both. Extrapolations are risky, particularly in wartime. Things have a way of happening "slowly at first, and then all at once". A sudden partial collapse on either side would change everything.

 

[GK .Dundas]

he has also consistently undermined Taiwan verbally. I know were not supposed to take what he says seriously but...

I suspect that there are a bunch rather frustrated Chinese Intel types who are responsible for staging diversions, for a possible invasion.
I mean who needs you when you've got Donald Trump...

 

[Czech_pivo]

"Probably not" is the likely answer to both. Extrapolations are risky, particularly in wartime. Things have a way of happening "slowly at first, and then all at once". A sudden partial collapse on either side would change everything.

This coming summer offensive season will be telling for both sides. This could be a 'make it or break it' time period for both sides.

The winter months are coming to a close, so Russia's chance to 'freeze out' the Ukrainians is now gone. If either side can punch through somewhere and drive fast and create panic in the rear somewhere, it could be the sudden collapse you are referring to.

The US's actions might just be enough to cause an uptick in Ukrainian recruiting efforts and by July/Aug that could be enough to start this process. I just don't see the Russians getting that some sort of uptick - only if Russia starts to strong arm people.

 

[Remius]

This coming summer offensive season will be telling for both sides. This could be a 'make it or break it' time period for both sides.

The winter months are coming to a close, so Russia's chance to 'freeze out' the Ukrainians is now gone. If either side can punch through somewhere and drive fast and create panic in the rear somewhere, it could be the sudden collapse you are referring to.

The US's actions might just be enough to cause an uptick in Ukrainian recruiting efforts and by July/Aug that could be enough to start this process. I just don't see the Russians getting that some sort of uptick - only if Russia starts to strong arm people.

I’m sure the next step will be the US lifting sanctions on Russia. MAGA needs Russia to win.

 

[dapaterson]

Plot twist: the US weapons and materiel originally bound for Ukraine will be instead redirected to Russia.

I think... I hope I am joking.

 

[PrairieFella]

Plot twist: the US weapons and materiel originally bound for Ukraine will be instead redirected to Russia.

I think... I hope I am joking.

You find some wood and knock on it. Right now.

 

[The Bread Guy]

The US and Russia are nowhere near being allies. I doubt they'll be sharing defence commitments anytime soon.

Well, one side's agreed not to poke the other anymore in one specific area, so that's at least a tiny step closer to being buddies ...

Hegseth orders pause in offensive US cyber operations against Russia

The reported directive from the defence secretary comes during an American push to end the war in Ukraine.

www.bbc.com

 

[Brad Sallows]

Well, one side's agreed not to poke the other anymore in one specific area, so that's at least a tiny step closer to being buddies ...

Perhaps they will return to being on the same good terms as when the US helped to disarm Ukraine, scotched plans for deploying missile defences in Poland and the Czech republic, and declined to interfere with the annexation of Crimea. Certain politicians have asked for and offered back more flexibility to Putin than others.

 

[The Bread Guy]

I’m sure the next step will be the US lifting sanctions on Russia. MAGA needs Russia to win.

Hey, but he'll get big concessions from Russia with that one, right? Am I right?

Perhaps they will return to being on the same good terms as when the US helped to disarm Ukraine, scotched plans for deploying missile defences in Poland and the Czech republic, and declined to interfere with the annexation of Crimea. Certain politicians have asked for and offered back more flexibility to Putin than others.

"More flexibility" is one thing, but going from "adversary worth poking" to "hey, let's hold off on the poking" is quite different than "ok, we'll play with your friends a bit differently."

Then again, as some say, sounds like the entertainment industry's to blame for painting USSR 2.0 as the bad guys way back when before POTUS47's time ....

https://twitter.com/x/status/1895842586645971433

 

[suffolkowner]

"Probably not" is the likely answer to both. Extrapolations are risky, particularly in wartime. Things have a way of happening "slowly at first, and then all at once". A sudden partial collapse on either side would change everything.

This coming summer offensive season will be telling for both sides. This could be a 'make it or break it' time period for both sides.

The winter months are coming to a close, so Russia's chance to 'freeze out' the Ukrainians is now gone. If either side can punch through somewhere and drive fast and create panic in the rear somewhere, it could be the sudden collapse you are referring to.

The US's actions might just be enough to cause an uptick in Ukrainian recruiting efforts and by July/Aug that could be enough to start this process. I just don't see the Russians getting that some sort of uptick - only if Russia starts to strong arm people.

Russia has limited AFV to contribute to an attack with a total in warstock left of

279 decent tanks
990 decent IFV
1576 decent APC

For some reason these dont seem to be showing up at the frontline. Bottleneck at refurbishment facilities? Kept back for defence of homeland? Russia will soon require AFV donations from NK/China/Iran as Ukraine needs Western support

 

[KevinB]

They may wait for the effects of the 8% cut to the US military and its resultant impact on readiness and capabilities...

8% Annual for 5 years...

 

[suffolkowner]

8% Annual for 5 years...

i cant even imagine a US president proposing or surviving that. Crazy

 

[KevinB]

Russia has limited AFV to contribute to an attack with a total in warstock left of

279 decent tanks
990 decent IFV
1576 decent APC

For some reason these dont seem to be showing up at the frontline. Bottleneck at refurbishment facilities? Kept back for defence of homeland? Russia will soon require AFV donations from NK/China/Iran as Ukraine needs Western support

That's is basically a Divisions worth of Equipment.
Some of which has been already robbed from to refurb other users - but I suspect that some is kept near Moscow.

The other aspect is that as soon as they mass for an attack -- Mr. HIMARS tends to visit.

NK Artillery has already been blown up in Eastern Ukraine, both towed and SPA.
I suspect China is keeping their options open, Iran is unlikely to offer much beyond their OWUAS.

 

[PrairieFella]

Kevin, we haven't heard much from you lately (don't blame you for a social media break), any semi-insider perspectives you can offer about what's going on with the administration?

 

[Brad Sallows]

Hey, but he'll get big concessions from Russia with that one, right? Am I right?

"More flexibility" is one thing, but going from "adversary worth poking" to "hey, let's hold off on the poking" is quite different than "ok, we'll play with your friends a bit differently."

Then again, as some say, sounds like the entertainment industry's to blame for painting USSR 2.0 as the bad guys way back when before POTUS47's time ....

Understanding the past is a prerequisite for understanding the present.

The point of the past events I cited is to illustrate that the approximate Democratic (and thus US) position used to be one of accommodation towards Russia, willingness to work with Putin, and no particular fondness for Ukraine.

At some point that changed, and the period of inflection is not hard to find. The "Russian Collusion" dirt Hillary Clinton fabricated to tar Trump in the minds of voters failed, and Clinton was left having to explain a defeat when victory was thought by most observers to be near certain. It would be uncharacteristic of her to admit her own failings. She latched onto malign Russian influence as a cause, and that subsequently became a fulcrum for leverage applied by various parties interesting in hindering the new administration. In order for all that to work, Russia and Putin had to unambiguously be villains. The cake was iced when Ukraine was dragged into US domestic politics for the first impeachment hearings. Russia is now the blackest of scoundrels, and Ukraine has had a makeover.

Once the exigencies of the moment (how can X be used against Trump?) end, Democrats will most likely return to their earlier positions. Their party is historically the one that owns trade protectionism and anti-interventionism.

An article (Mario Loyola) with some historical background that many people probably don't know, or have forgotten.