Political impacts of Ukraine war

[Brad Sallows]

Russia has limited AFV to contribute to an attack with a total in warstock left of

279 decent tanks
990 decent IFV
1576 decent APC

For some reason these dont seem to be showing up at the frontline. Bottleneck at refurbishment facilities? Kept back for defence of homeland? Russia will soon require AFV donations from NK/China/Iran as Ukraine needs Western support

If they're mainly using fires to support ground elements on foot, the AFV count isn't as relevant.

 

[Kirkhill]

Must watch....

Trump speech live: President to make Congress address ‘full of surprises’

Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky plan to sign the much-debated rare earth minerals deal tonight, sources have claimed.

www.telegraph.co.uk

Bullying apparently works.

US and Ukraine ‘plan to sign minerals deal tonight’​

Donald Trump’s administration and Ukraine plan to sign the much-debated minerals deal tonight, four people familiar with the matter told Reuters.

The US president told his advisers that he wants to announce the agreement in his address to Congress, three of the sources said, cautioning that the deal had yet to be signed and the situation could change.
7:41PM

Starmer spoke to Zelensky before announcement​

Sir Keir Starmer spoke to Volodymyr Zelensky before he announced that Ukraine was ready to return to the negotiating table.

The Prime Minister’s deputy spokesman said the call was made ahead of the Ukrainian leader telling Donald Trump that he was ready “to make things right” and called for a “truce” in the sea and the sky.

The spokesman added: “We remain absolutely committed to securing a lasting peace in Ukraine. We’re engaging with key allies in support of this effort. It’s the right thing to do, and is in our interest to do, and our immediate focus remains putting Ukraine in the position of strength and bringing the US and Ukraine together for the benefits of our collective security.”

Asked whether anyone from the Government spoke to JD Vance following his apparent criticism of the UK-French peace proposal for Ukraine, the spokesman decline to share details on “private conversations”.
7:40PM

‘It is time to make things right’: Zelensky’s statement in full:​

Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, said that Ukraine is ready to come to the negotiating table as he praised Donald Trump’s “strong leadership”.

Here is his statement:

“I would like to reiterate Ukraine’s commitment to peace. None of us wants an endless war. Ukraine is ready to come to the negotiating table as soon as possible to bring lasting peace closer. Nobody wants peace more than Ukrainians. My team and I stand ready to work under President Trump’s strong leadership to get a peace that lasts.

“We are ready to work fast to end the war, and the first stages could be the release of prisoners and truce in the sky — ban on missiles, long-ranged drones, bombs on energy and other civilian infrastructure — and truce in the sea immediately, if Russia will do the same. Then we want to move very fast through all next stages and to work with the US to agree a strong final deal.

“We do really value how much America has done to help Ukraine maintain its sovereignty and independence. And we remember the moment when things changed when President Trump provided Ukraine with Javelins. We are grateful for this.

“Our meeting in Washington, at the White House on Friday, did not go the way it was supposed to be. It is regrettable that it happened this way. It is time to make things right. We would like future cooperation and communication to be constructive.

“Regarding the agreement on minerals and security, Ukraine is ready to sign it in any time and in any convenient format. We see this agreement as a step toward greater security and solid security guarantees, and I truly hope it will work effectively.”
7:40PM

Zelensky: I’ll come back to the negotiating table​

Volodymyr Zelensky said he is “ready to come to the negotiation table” with Donald Trump “as soon as possible” to sign a mineral deal and secure peace.

After Washington halted military aid for Ukraine, Mr Zelensky said it was “regrettable” what happened in their Oval Office meeting last Friday and told the US president that “it is time to make things right”.

“None of us wants an endless war. Ukraine is ready to come to the negotiating table as soon as possible to bring lasting peace closer. Nobody wants peace more than Ukrainians,” the Ukrainian leader said, praising Mr Trump’s “strong leadership”.

It comes hours before Mr Trump is set to make an address to the nation to lay out his goals for the next four years, including plans for “peace around the globe”.

“I will tell it like it is,” he warned.

Europe has been scrambling to draw up its own plans for peace in Ukraine and pleading with Mr Trump to provide security guarantees, which he has so far declined.

The European Commission on Tuesday unveiled plans for an €800 billion boost to EU defence spending to win over the US with its rearmament.

​

 

[Kirkhill]

Understanding the past is a prerequisite for understanding the present.

The point of the past events I cited is to illustrate that the approximate Democratic (and thus US) position used to be one of accommodation towards Russia, willingness to work with Putin, and no particular fondness for Ukraine.

At some point that changed, and the period of inflection is not hard to find. The "Russian Collusion" dirt Hillary Clinton fabricated to tar Trump in the minds of voters failed, and Clinton was left having to explain a defeat when victory was thought by most observers to be near certain. It would be uncharacteristic of her to admit her own failings. She latched onto malign Russian influence as a cause, and that subsequently became a fulcrum for leverage applied by various parties interesting in hindering the new administration. In order for all that to work, Russia and Putin had to unambiguously be villains. The cake was iced when Ukraine was dragged into US domestic politics for the first impeachment hearings. Russia is now the blackest of scoundrels, and Ukraine has had a makeover.

Once the exigencies of the moment (how can X be used against Trump?) end, Democrats will most likely return to their earlier positions. Their party is historically the one that owns trade protectionism and anti-interventionism.

An article (Mario Loyola) with some historical background that many people probably don't know, or have forgotten.

It is one thing to deny aid to countries trapped behind enemy lines (Hungary, Poland, Czechoslovakia - even Ukraine at one point). It is another thing entirely to encourage people to get into a fight and then pull the rug out from under them.

But perhaps we should ask the Shia of Basra, the Kurds and the Georgians about that.

 

[Kirkhill]

And then there is this --- no words.

7:54PM

Zelensky should have no say in Ukraine’s future, says Bannon​

Volodymyr Zelensky should not have a say in Ukraine’s future, Steve Bannon has said.

The former Trump adviser told Sky News that the Ukrainian leader is a “punk” and said “no” when asked whether he should have a seat at the table during peace talks.

“Zelensky is untrustworthy. He’s a crook and a punk. And he showed what a punk he was in the Oval Office the other day,” Mr Bannon said.

“He should never be allowed back in. I don’t think he should ever be allowed back in to the United States.”

Trump speech live: President to make Congress address ‘full of surprises’

Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky plan to sign the much-debated rare earth minerals deal tonight, sources have claimed.

www.telegraph.co.uk

 

[The Bread Guy]

... Once the exigencies of the moment (how can X be used against Trump?) end, Democrats will most likely return to their earlier positions. Their party is historically the one that owns trade protectionism and anti-interventionism ...

I don't know - there's at least some merit behind the old West Wing quote, "Republicans want a huge military but they don't want to send it anywhere. The Democrats wants a small military and they want to send it everywhere."

 

[Kirkhill]

Ben Wallace is the former Secretary of State for Defence under Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak as well as a former soldier.

Trump and Vance aren’t clever, they’re clueless

The US administration seems wilfully naive to the existential threat we face from Putin and his murderous regime

www.telegraph.co.uk

Let me paint you a vision of a new era.

Donald Trump and JD Vance mean everything they say. They mean it when they say Russia isn’t a threat. They genuinely believe that the US should leave Nato and they want one way or another to take Greenland. That only China, Russia and the US count. Britain is treated as a quaint exception to Europe. Sovereignty of others doesn’t matter. Might is right. Oppressing opponents, judges and the free press is acceptable in the cause of America First. Facts are fiction and fiction are facts. Putin and Trump sign mineral extraction deals in the occupied Donetsk region. Five Eyes intelligence is shared not with Britain’s friends but our enemies. The US withdraws from European bases and pulls the drawbridge up.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Must watch....

Trump speech live: President to make Congress address ‘full of surprises’

Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky plan to sign the much-debated rare earth minerals deal tonight, sources have claimed.

www.telegraph.co.uk

Bullying apparently works.

​

Ok, what's on your Bingo Card?

I've got:
1) Donald unilaterally announces that he's pulling the US out of NATO
2) Putin is invited to the White House before Easter
3) Donald install a tourist VISA into the US for all Canadians/Mexicans at a cost of 20$ per adult and 10$ for kids over 5yrs of age

 

[IKnowNothing]

Ok, what's on your Bingo Card?

I've got:
1) Donald unilaterally announces that he's pulling the US out of NATO
2) Putin is invited to the White House before Easter
3) Donald install a tourist VISA into the US for all Canadians/Mexicans at a cost of 20$ per adult and 10$ for kids over 5yrs of age

Not tonight, but at some point I figure we'll hear the casual suggestion that significant mineral rights to the ring of fire would be fair recompense for the trillions we receive in US taxpayer funded subsidies annually.

 

[KevinB]

2) Putin is invited to the White House before Easter

If that occurs I will place bets that Putin takes a few rounds on the lawn...

 

[lenaitch]

i cant even imagine a US president proposing or surviving that. Crazy

Elon will just fire a bunch to make them hyper-efficient.

 

[Brad Sallows]

I don't know - there's at least some merit behind the old West Wing quote, "Republicans want a huge military but they don't want to send it anywhere. The Democrats wants a small military and they want to send it everywhere."

I wouldn't credit West Wing writers with much insight, and would credit them with writing to polish the image of Democrats. The original neo-conservatives were Democrats for whom the party was insufficiently interventionist.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Editing

 

[Kirkhill]

8% Annual for 5 years...

34% in constant dollars.

 

[Kirkhill]

Ok, what's on your Bingo Card?

I've got:
1) Donald unilaterally announces that he's pulling the US out of NATO
2) Putin is invited to the White House before Easter
3) Donald install a tourist VISA into the US for all Canadians/Mexicans at a cost of 20$ per adult and 10$ for kids over 5yrs of age

Lizards and Aliens.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Lizards and Aliens.

Lizards with fricking lasers on the top of their heads patrolling the US side of the Rio Grande!

 

[DBNSG]

Ok, what's on your Bingo Card?

I've got:
1) Donald unilaterally announces that he's pulling the US out of NATO
2) Putin is invited to the White House before Easter
3) Donald install a tourist VISA into the US for all Canadians/Mexicans at a cost of 20$ per adult and 10$ for kids over 5yrs of age

Trump is going to have someone shot on Fifth Avenue
Trump will announce the annexation of Canada by Sunday March 9 at 2:00 AM EST.
Trump will incarcerate all members of Parliament
King Charles will rubber stamp
Gretsky is announced as interim Governor and waves from the upper levels of Congress

 

[Czech_pivo]

Trump is going to have someone shot on Fifth Avenue
Trump will announce the annexation of Canada by Sunday March 9 at 2:00 AM EST.
Trump will incarcerate all members of Parliament
King Charles will rubber stamp
Gretsky is announced as interim Governor and waves from the upper levels of Congress

Damn that’s too black and depressing for me.