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Political impacts of Ukraine war

Well that's something but you still need to include Ukraine in said talks, it's their house. Not really convinced that contractors will be able to provide any real protection or even deterrence. This is Russia after all, a conventional military.


Haliburton and KBR be like...

Ka-Ching Yes GIF by TV4
 
Last year, POL asked European countries to cut assistance to UKR military aged men outside the UKR. Now, POL's president is starting to limit aid to refugees not working - and cutting off support for Starlink.
Still hosting ~1M refugees, but it looks like financial pressures + wanting to play to the nationalist base may be leading to a squeeze.
 
Wait, you mean to tell me that Europeans as a whole spend more on Russia than three times what Canada does on the CBC?

Edit to add: Well, technically 30% more directly…
 
65 year old Finnish conscripts... cranky old men who are crack shots... hmmm


Finnish Government submits to Parliament proposal to raise reservist age limit to 65


On 28 August 2025, the Finnish Government submitted to Parliament a proposal to raise the maximum age of reservists to 65 years. Reservists would remain liable for military service until the end of the year they turn 65 instead of the current 60. The new upper age limit would apply to all persons liable for military service born in 1966 or later.

Persons liable for military service would remain in the reserve until the end of the year they turn 65 irrespective of their military rank. There would be no upper age limit for officers with the rank of colonel or captain or higher, and they would remain in the reserve as long as they are fit for military service, just as they do now.

The proposal would extend the liability for military service by 15 years for the rank and file and by 5 years for officers and non-commissioned officers. This would give the Finnish Defence Forces and the Finnish Border Guard a wider range of options for assigning persons to key positions during emergencies regardless of their military rank.

In practice, the amendment would affect a relatively limited group of persons liable for military service. For example, only reservists who have been assigned wartime tasks could be ordered to attend refresher training. No upper age limit would be prescribed for participating in voluntary national defence.

There is a five-year transition period during which the number of reservists would grow by 125,000. The number of reservists is expected to reach one million in 2031.


 
PMCs mean fewer politically damaging funerals at Arlington.

He is just envious of the French Foreign Legion. Foreigners the French government can deploy with no domestic consequences.

No Frenchmen were hurt in the making of French foreign policy.
 
PMCs mean fewer politically damaging funerals at Arlington.
Bingo.
Plus the ability to use US Military equipment without pesky issues like ITAR and complaints from the lunatic fringe about giving stuff to Ukraine.

POTUS will probably have a stake too…


He is just envious of the French Foreign Legion. Foreigners the French government can deploy with no domestic consequences.

No Frenchmen were hurt in the making of French foreign policy.
Not totally the main advantage with PMC’s as opposed to an American Domestic Legion type thing is the external consequences.

It isn’t the US Government who is shooting down Russian planes, or killing Russian troops, it’s just capitalism in action.

Now admittedly if the Flying Tigers 2.0 show up with F-22’s no one will believe that it isn’t the USG, but boneyard F-16’s and F-18’s, and a fleet of A-10’s, that is much more explainable that a US PMC bought them.

DoD wanted to pay off a few ABCT’s worth, and this could be a way to do it.
 
It isn’t the US Government who is shooting down Russian planes, or killing Russian troops, it’s just capitalism in action.
There's a movie about that :)

Meanwhile, a pro-nationalist UKR politician shot dead by folks on a motorbike.
 
Bingo.
Plus the ability to use US Military equipment without pesky issues like ITAR and complaints from the lunatic fringe about giving stuff to Ukraine.

POTUS will probably have a stake too…



Not totally the main advantage with PMC’s as opposed to an American Domestic Legion type thing is the external consequences.

It isn’t the US Government who is shooting down Russian planes, or killing Russian troops, it’s just capitalism in action.

Now admittedly if the Flying Tigers 2.0 show up with F-22’s no one will believe that it isn’t the USG, but boneyard F-16’s and F-18’s, and a fleet of A-10’s, that is much more explainable that a US PMC bought them.

DoD wanted to pay off a few ABCT’s worth, and this could be a way to do it.

Capitalism in action? Flying Tigers 2.0?

How fast could KBR put a mixed force of Manned/Unmanned F16s and a fleet of Kratos Valkyries and/or Anduril Gambits into the air?

No bureaucratic baggage to worry about.

An advantage to cutting the force generator loose.

Canadian precedents

Steele's Scouts, Strathcona's Horse, Gault's Patricias, Brutinel's Brigade of motorized machine guns.

Maybe the Pentagon is moving too slowly.
 
A couple of other analogies


The Chinese alternative to the way of war of the CIA and the State Department.

Russia invading Ukraine 2022 - the old way of war (and even then the Russians wouldn't declare it war)
Russia invading Ukrained 2013 - active hybrid war
The Colour Revolutions - western hybrid war
Mossadegh and the Bay of Pigs - ham-fisted hybrid war

The grandfather of the new Chinese way of war


The Canadian version


The HBC was a kinder, gentler and arguably more effective version of the HEIC. It didn't have to call in the army as often.

....

1. Donald is playing catch-up, ditching the bureaucratic CIA model which can be tied to his government, for a commercial model with a 400 year history of success that is being emulated by the Chinese.

2. Commercial enterprises don't have to answer to hidebound government lawyers and accountants and can innovate faster. Rumour has it that PSCs get better kit, newer kit, faster and do things differently. And are plausibly deniable.
 
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