Political impacts of Ukraine war

[Brad Sallows]

The west as a collective has not done enough to help Ukraine, however it's the current US administration that has said that russia can keep the land it is occupying.

There isn't such a thing as "enough". Sometimes countries don't get a damn thing.

 

[KevinB]

The US president is the most pliable leader in the west. All someone has to do is frame the issue to look like he'll be a hero if he doesn't oppose it. The worry, as noted by others, is Hungary. Maybe also Turkey. But everyone has a price.

Turkey has thrown in with Ukraine. They are building them a lot of kill Russian stuff and have been fairly vocal of the last year about it.
Once Turkey saw that what a giant turd the S-400 was and what NATO system could do to it, they gave up trying to straddle the fence.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Once Turkey saw that what a giant turd the S-400 was and what NATO system could do to it, they gave up trying to straddle the fence.

"You sold me queer giraffes."

 

[CBH99]

The US president is the most pliable leader in the west. All someone has to do is frame the issue to look like he'll be a hero if he doesn't oppose it. The worry, as noted by others, is Hungary. Maybe also Turkey. But everyone has a price.

How is Hungary or Turkey 'make it or break it' players in the Russia vs Ukraibe war?

 

[McG]

Canada has stated its position that Ukraine must be involved in the process to make decisions on Ukraine’s future.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1955705710383096055

This is the statement Canada needed to make.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Canada has stated its position that Ukraine must be involved in the process to make decisions on Ukraine’s future.
This is the statement Canada needed to make.

Gee, great. Unfortunately, borders CAN be changed by force if no-one helps insufficiently strong defenders enough. It's all just twaddle until he gets Canada into a coalition - which might not include the US - willing to spend the money and make the sacrifices to apply meaningful military and economic pressure. It reminds me of the statements governments provide to news agencies on the embarrassing stories of the day - "The government of X is committed to <insert high-minded ideals bereft of evidence of useful action here>".

Canada is neck deep in debt and deficits. Other than being a fiscal moderate, maybe even conservative, on general management of money, Carney is pretty much a conventional contemporary Canadian Liberal on social programs, climate change, etc; and deficit spending to pay for all of the aforementioned. His party blew away what little pre-2015 fiscal freedom of manoeuvre we had, and he's in support of most of the causes of that. Is he planning anything on a time scale less than the one used to measure elections, I wonder.

The tut-tutting international community is moving more slowly on meaningful support of Ukraine than they are on routing around Trump's international trade damage. Just a stream of Serious Statements.

 

[KevinB]

How is Hungary or Turkey 'make it or break it' players in the Russia vs Ukraibe war?

For NATO admission all parties need to agree on new membership.

 

[HavokFour]

More signs Alaska is just going to be the self-gratification of 2 massive egos and accomplish absolutely nothing else. It'll be fun to see if Trump takes this bait and try to spin it, after wanting everyone (NATO) to spend more on defense.

Russia wants to link cut in NATO troops to talks about Ukraine, says Poland

Russia wants to include the topic of a reduction of NATO troops presence in any conversations about the future of Ukraine, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk told reporters on Wednesday.

www.reuters.com

 

[GK .Dundas]

More signs Alaska is just going to be the self-gratification of 2 massive egos and accomplish absolutely nothing else. I'll be fun to see if Trump takes this bait and try to spin it, after wanting everyone (NATO) to spend more on defense.

Russia wants to link cut in NATO troops to talks about Ukraine, says Poland

Russia wants to include the topic of a reduction of NATO troops presence in any conversations about the future of Ukraine, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk told reporters on Wednesday.

www.reuters.com

I will consider this conference a magnificent success if the United States still has a fiftieth state and that state is Alaska.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Gee, great. Unfortunately, borders CAN be changed by force if no-one helps insufficiently strong defenders enough. It's all just twaddle until he gets Canada into a coalition - which might not include the US - willing to spend the money and make the sacrifices to apply meaningful military and economic pressure. It reminds me of the statements governments provide to news agencies on the embarrassing stories of the day - "The government of X is committed to <insert high-minded ideals bereft of evidence of useful action here>".

Canada is neck deep in debt and deficits. Other than being a fiscal moderate, maybe even conservative, on general management of money, Carney is pretty much a conventional contemporary Canadian Liberal on social programs, climate change, etc; and deficit spending to pay for all of the aforementioned. His party blew away what little pre-2015 fiscal freedom of manoeuvre we had, and he's in support of most of the causes of that. Is he planning anything on a time scale less than the one used to measure elections, I wonder.

The tut-tutting international community is moving more slowly on meaningful support of Ukraine than they are on routing around Trump's international trade damage. Just a stream of Serious Statements.

Not sure how the phases, ‘maybe even a fiscal conservative’ and ‘Canadian liberal on…deficit spending’ can be squared.

 

[HavokFour]

I will consider this conference a magnificent success if the United States still has a fiftieth state and that state is Alaska.

So you've heard the murmurs that Trump might be offering Russia a real foothold in Alaska to probably launch further shenanigans all over the rest of the North American continent.

The proposal package reportedly involves granting Russia access to Alaska's natural resources and lifting certain U.S. sanctions on Russia's aviation sector, which has struggled under the weight of international sanctions.

Trump may offer Putin minerals access in exchange for peace, Telegraph reports

U.S. President Donald Trump is preparing to offer Russian President Vladimir Putin access to rare earth minerals in Ukraine and natural resources in Alaska in an effort to secure a ceasefire, The Telegraph reported on Aug. 13.

kyivindependent.com

 

[PrairieFella]

Not sure how the phases, ‘maybe even a fiscal conservative’ and ‘Canadian liberal on…deficit spending’ can be squared.

Also, remember not to look behind the curtain and see what archconservatives have done to American finances in the past several months.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Not sure how the phases, ‘maybe even a fiscal conservative’ and ‘Canadian liberal on…deficit spending’ can be squared.

General management of what is in hand, without necessarily acquiring it responsibly.

 

[brihard]

Trump achieved nothing and now appears to have TACOed his call for a ceasefire. European leaders are putting him on the head and telling him ‘good try’. Putin, a war criminal, got literal red carpet treatment from the president of the U.S. for all Trump’s flaccid theatrics of flying a B-2 and some F-22s over, and blustering about ‘severe consequences’, it appears as expected that he really has no resolve whatsoever on this.

Live updates: Trump shifts position on Ukraine ceasefire after meeting Putin

After leaving Alaska, Trump says he would prefer to "go directly to a peace agreement" to end the war in Ukraine, rather than a temporary ceasefire.

www.bbc.com

Trump has been discussing this with European leaders today and appears to be back to proposing to purchase ‘peace’ by surrendering Ukrainian lands in the Donbas. So, right back to trying to broker the sellout.

After Putin Summit, Trump Backs Plan to Cede Land in Ukraine: Live Updates

After meeting the Russian president, President Trump told European leaders he now favors giving up unoccupied Ukrainian land to Russia to end the fighting, a concession Ukraine has long opposed.

www.nytimes.com

A useless summit, with only Putin gaining any positional advantage. His, and America’s pledges of peace for Ukraine are utterly meaningless. Ukraine cannot take any such promise or proposal as a credible guarantor against future aggression.

 

[RangerRay]

Garry Kasparov on the debacle in Alaska.

Half-Baked Alaska: Trump, Putin, and a Failure Decades in the Making

Trump's capitulation to Putin over Ukraine is the most extreme expression of his predecessors’ failings.

open.substack.com

It’s easy to look at yesterday’s Alaska fiasco and make it about Donald Trump. There are certainly many Trump-specific aspects of the summit that rendered it especially bad: The decision to host a revanchist Russian leader in a former Russian colony. The corrupt intermingling of Russian financiers with Trump’s business associates-turned-presidential advisors like Steve Witkoff. The president’s effusive praise for Vladimir Putin (Trump loves to flatter foreign leaders, unless that leader is the democratically-elected president of Ukraine). The blathering about Trump’s domestic political grudges. The words “PURSUING PEACE” plastered in all caps across official signage while Russian forces continue to murder Ukrainians in their homes and in schools, branding so boldly dishonest that only someone like Trump could keep a straight face in front of it.

But it would be a mistake to look at Alaska and only see a Trump problem.

Trump is America’s id. He is dangerous and brutish. Yet he is not an aberration. Trump is simply the most extreme expression of his predecessors’ failings. Every president from Bill Clinton to Joe Biden indulged Putin with the pomp and ceremony of official meetings, even if none of those presidents would have selected Alaska—the centerpiece of what was once Russkaya Amerika—as the venue.

 

[RangerRay]

Another take on yesterday’s annual report to the CEO, but more on the “pivot to Ukraine” that wasn’t.

Putin Makes No Concessions But Trump Normalizes Relations

People Seem To Be Missing The Big Story

open.substack.com

Remember, this was the moment when Trump was supposedly pivoting to help Ukraine—to be a good NATO ally and all that.
All of this happened after August 1.
And yesterday what happened? Well, yesterday the Russians did what they have been doing ever since Trump became president—and attacked Ukraine with long range air power. The Russians used 85 Shahed type drones and 1 Iskander missile against Ukraine last night, and the Ukrainian air force stated that "Hits by 24 (Russian) UAVs were recorded in 12 locations."
At the same time the war raged on the front line, the Russian military did what it always does (get severely overrated by the analytic community while suffering heavy losses) and the Russians continued to avoid US sanctions while building war machinery.
And yet while everything remained the same—everything was really different. Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin met in a very friendly summit, pledged to work together closely now and in the future, talked about getting back to business—and put all the onus on Ukraine to agree to territorial concessions. The idea that Trump might sanction Russia, might militarily threaten Russia, might provide strong support for Ukrainians, was gone in a blink of an eye.
And people were weirdly claiming nothing had changed.
The US and Russia were normalizing relations in front of our eyes, Ukraine was being told in no uncertain terms it is up to them to cede territory, and the idea of US sanctions on Russia (which were supposed to be imposed by now) have disappeared like a fart in the wind.

 

[HavokFour]

"We are currently clean on OPSEC."

At around 9 a.m. on Friday, three guests at Hotel Captain Cook, a four-star hotel located 20 minutes from the Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage where leaders from the U.S. and Russia convened, found the documents left behind in one of the hotel's public printers. NPR reviewed photos of the documents taken by one of the guests, who NPR agreed not to identify because the guest said they feared retaliation.

Government papers found in an Alaskan hotel reveal new details of Trump-Putin summit​

Interesting to see just how much was skipped on Friday, since they broke it up before the lunch.

 

[Brad Sallows]

So you've heard the murmurs that Trump might be offering Russia a real foothold in Alaska to probably launch further shenanigans all over the rest of the North American continent.

Shared access in the Bering Straits? Even if it happens, those drill platforms would have to be pretty large to host any kind of expeditionary force.

 

[lenaitch]

So a cordial tete-a-tete with Putin but Zelensky gets a verbal beat down. Got it.

Why no Vance? Too busy altering a landscape somewhere for yet another vacation?

 

[dapaterson]

So a cordial tete-a-tete with Putin but Zelensky gets a verbal beat down. Got it.

Why no Vance? Too busy altering a landscape somewhere for yet another vacation?

He had a long week, and just wanted to spend the weekend on the couch.