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Political impacts of Ukraine war

I don’t see any good coming from any of this for Ukraine, for the Baltics, for Poland, for Moldova.
If the Ukrainians feel that they are being sold out, I can see them resorting to some desperate actions that could have some long reaching consequences.
I wonder if they, Poland, the UK, the Baltics would even consider regime change in Belarus just to throw Putin off and destabilize his forward, western flank in order to buy time.

Admittedly I’m amazed daily that Lukashenko still draws breath. Killing him would totally take Belarus into its own dimension, which would cause Putin a great deal of consternation.

The F-35 and B-2 flyby clearly spooked Putin (or was Putin 2, Putin 3, etc ) for a bit which seems to have inspired the MAGA folks to see it as a Trump flex, but to me it was more like a tinpot dictator.
It would have been way better to paint Ukrainian decals on the F-35’s and B-2 and tell Putin that if there isn’t a ceasefire that those very planes would over over the Kremlin in 24hrs if the Ukrainians wanted to.
 
The Trump/Putin summit just ended. They both made a brief statement at the end and took no questions. The one real takeaway is no deal has been reached yet, and no ceasefire. Trump said he’ll be calling NATO, Zelensky et al soon, and both said they’ll be talking again and looking to move forward. Trump painted a fairly cautious picture of having made progress, but it’s one major and several other smaller points remaining unresolved.

So yeah. No resolution achieved today. Trump seemed tired and not particularly happy- much more low key than usual.
Putin said "We want to improve the security of Ukraine" AKA, Russian borders moved to the Western Ukraine borders, so the FSB can go to every door to round up anyone they don't like.
 
Maybe I am just paranoid (but am I paranoid enough?), but I suspect that, even though we didn't see them, to foster amity , Trump let the Russians bring their own film crew and all. Then, he parades Putin right in front of some F-35's loaded with TS gear, none of which (other than the engine intakes) appears to be covered. Western journalist are probably not even paying attention, as it is background noise to them, but the Russian medias - some of which must be spies in disguise - are probably going "Bazinga! Get me lots of high-def close up pics".

You aren't the only one that noticed.

 
But he still gets the Nobel Peace Prize, right? ;)

Trump told Norwegian minister he wants Nobel Prize, newspaper says​



To be fair, he has likley done more than Obama ever did for his....

It's now a very low bar.
 
Putin to His Vainness: the war would not have started if you were President!

Bolton: 'Trump did not lose, but Putin clearly won'

 
Trump achieved nothing and now appears to have TACOed his call for a ceasefire. European leaders are putting him on the head and telling him ‘good try’. Putin, a war criminal, got literal red carpet treatment from the president of the U.S. for all Trump’s flaccid theatrics of flying a B-2 and some F-22s over, and blustering about ‘severe consequences’, it appears as expected that he really has no resolve whatsoever on this.


Trump has been discussing this with European leaders today and appears to be back to proposing to purchase ‘peace’ by surrendering Ukrainian lands in the Donbas. So, right back to trying to broker the sellout.


A useless summit, with only Putin gaining any positional advantage. His, and America’s pledges of peace for Ukraine are utterly meaningless. Ukraine cannot take any such promise or proposal as a credible guarantor against future aggression.
 
Garry Kasparov on the debacle in Alaska.


It’s easy to look at yesterday’s Alaska fiasco and make it about Donald Trump. There are certainly many Trump-specific aspects of the summit that rendered it especially bad: The decision to host a revanchist Russian leader in a former Russian colony. The corrupt intermingling of Russian financiers with Trump’s business associates-turned-presidential advisors like Steve Witkoff. The president’s effusive praise for Vladimir Putin (Trump loves to flatter foreign leaders, unless that leader is the democratically-elected president of Ukraine). The blathering about Trump’s domestic political grudges. The words “PURSUING PEACE” plastered in all caps across official signage while Russian forces continue to murder Ukrainians in their homes and in schools, branding so boldly dishonest that only someone like Trump could keep a straight face in front of it.

But it would be a mistake to look at Alaska and only see a Trump problem.

Trump is America’s id. He is dangerous and brutish. Yet he is not an aberration. Trump is simply the most extreme expression of his predecessors’ failings. Every president from Bill Clinton to Joe Biden indulged Putin with the pomp and ceremony of official meetings, even if none of those presidents would have selected Alaska—the centerpiece of what was once Russkaya Amerika—as the venue.
 
Another take on yesterday’s annual report to the CEO, but more on the “pivot to Ukraine” that wasn’t.


Remember, this was the moment when Trump was supposedly pivoting to help Ukraine—to be a good NATO ally and all that.
All of this happened after August 1.
And yesterday what happened? Well, yesterday the Russians did what they have been doing ever since Trump became president—and attacked Ukraine with long range air power. The Russians used 85 Shahed type drones and 1 Iskander missile against Ukraine last night, and the Ukrainian air force stated that "Hits by 24 (Russian) UAVs were recorded in 12 locations."
At the same time the war raged on the front line, the Russian military did what it always does (get severely overrated by the analytic community while suffering heavy losses) and the Russians continued to avoid US sanctions while building war machinery.
And yet while everything remained the same—everything was really different. Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin met in a very friendly summit, pledged to work together closely now and in the future, talked about getting back to business—and put all the onus on Ukraine to agree to territorial concessions. The idea that Trump might sanction Russia, might militarily threaten Russia, might provide strong support for Ukrainians, was gone in a blink of an eye.
And people were weirdly claiming nothing had changed.
The US and Russia were normalizing relations in front of our eyes, Ukraine was being told in no uncertain terms it is up to them to cede territory, and the idea of US sanctions on Russia (which were supposed to be imposed by now) have disappeared like a fart in the wind.
 
"We are currently clean on OPSEC."

At around 9 a.m. on Friday, three guests at Hotel Captain Cook, a four-star hotel located 20 minutes from the Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage where leaders from the U.S. and Russia convened, found the documents left behind in one of the hotel's public printers. NPR reviewed photos of the documents taken by one of the guests, who NPR agreed not to identify because the guest said they feared retaliation.

Government papers found in an Alaskan hotel reveal new details of Trump-Putin summit


Interesting to see just how much was skipped on Friday, since they broke it up before the lunch.
 
So let's see ...
  • No ceasefire or deal (with talk of even less than a ceasefire)
  • A bit of theatrics
  • (Maybe?) a bit of USSR 2.0 "journalists" fulfilling their "TECHINT collection while on 'assignment' overseas" PO
  • Nice welcome for Putin
  • No sanctions lifted or imposed
  • No Russian demands changed
  • Maybe "future meetings"
All this about 5,000 hours or so after POTUS47's inauguration, when (based on previous statements) he would bring down a deal on this file within 24 hours.

Well, at least UKR's President got to speak his piece, right? Right?

#MissionNotQuiteAccomplished
 
So you've heard the murmurs that Trump might be offering Russia a real foothold in Alaska to probably launch further shenanigans all over the rest of the North American continent.
Shared access in the Bering Straits? Even if it happens, those drill platforms would have to be pretty large to host any kind of expeditionary force.
 
UKR media says CNN is quoting Witkoff saying "yeah, RUS budged a bit ..."
Late add: a bit more from other France's wire service via RUS independent media

From the piece:
... “We got to an agreement that the US and other European nations could effectively offer Article 5-like language to cover a security guarantee,” he said.

“Putin has said that a red flag is NATO admission. And so what we were discussing was assuming that that held, assuming that the Ukrainians could agree to that and could live with that - and everything is going to be about what the Ukrainians can live with - but assuming they could, we were able to win the following concession that the US could offer Article 5-like protection,” Witkoff added.

He revealed it was the “first time we had ever heard the Russians agree” to such a provision being included in a peace deal ...
After speaking to EU bosses, UKR's President issued a statement today, and in public, he sounds optimistic right now ....
... It’s important that America agrees to work with Europe to provide security guarantees for Ukraine – and we are very thankful to the United States and to the President for such a signal – and therefore for everyone in Europe. This is a significant change. But there are no details how it will work – what America’s role will be, what Europe’s role will be, what the EU can do. And this is our main task. We need security to work in practice, like Article 5 of NATO.

And we consider EU accession to be part of security guarantees. And we have heard from President Trump that America and Putin see it the same way. So we talked about the EU accession negotiations ...
Reminder: we see how effective less-than-Article-5 security assurances from the 1994 "Give Up Your Nukes, UKR, and the US'll Have Your Back If Needed" memorandum, but hope springs eternal, I guess. We'll see ...
 
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