Political impacts of Ukraine war

[MrWhyt]

And now he is trying to end a war his way.

By rolling over for Putin.

 

[QV]

How is “surviving two assassination attempts” skill on his part?

He is, objectively, a terrible President, doing incalculable damage to the US (let alone the western alliance). That you cannot see that through the tainted lens of your “fanboy life” is equally shocking.

In no way do I under-estimate his ruthless self-interest and his willingness to say or do whatever it takes to seize and hold power.

"Seize power"? You are living in melodrama.

And if Trump finds a path to peace and ends the Ukr/Rus war - then what? Is he still a madman?

By rolling over for Putin.

I haven't seen any logical suggestion by you on how to manage the end to this war. A lot of folks here talk about wanting Russia crushed, but don't want to do the heavy lift to make it happen.

 

[SeaKingTacco]

If Trump finds a “path to peace” that dismembers Ukraine and rewards Putin and his cronies, I can about guarantee that the overall impact to international stability will not be positive.

 

[MrWhyt]

I haven't seen any logical suggestion by you on how to manage the end to this war.

good thing I'm not in a position of power and have never claimed i could end the war in 24 hours.

We've seen what trump says Ukraine needs to give up to achieve peace, but he hasn't said anything about what russia needs to give up. Will they pay reparations? return POWs and stolen children?, turnover war criminals for prosecution? He hasn't stood up to putin, he is just on his knees for him.

 

[HavokFour]

And there it is. Any security guarantee's made by the US specifically have already been rendered borderline worthless.

'You have my assurance': Trump says U.S. troops won't be involved in Ukraine peacekeeping

Asked in an interview "what kind of assurance" there is that US troops won't be involved in Ukraine after the war, Trump said "You have my assurance."

www.usatoday.com

 

[MrWhyt]

And there it is. Any security guarantee's made by the US specifically have already been rendered borderline worthless.

'You have my assurance': Trump says U.S. troops won't be involved in Ukraine peacekeeping

Asked in an interview "what kind of assurance" there is that US troops won't be involved in Ukraine after the war, Trump said "You have my assurance."

www.usatoday.com

It is TACO Tuesday

 

[KevinB]

good thing I'm not in a position of power and have never claimed i could end the war in 24 hours.

We've seen what trump says Ukraine needs to give up to achieve peace, but he hasn't said anything about what russia needs to give up. Will they pay reparations? return POWs and stolen children?, turnover war criminals for prosecution? He hasn't stood up to putin, he is just on his knees for him.

POTUS when he was #45 kept telling Europe to get off Russian oil as it made them susceptible to coercion by Russia.
He also send Stingers and Javelins to Ukraine, and other lethal aid, that had been disallowed by previous Presidents. At some point in time when Ukraine refused to turn over "evidence" against alleged illegal dealings of then VP Biden and his son Hunter's involvement in Ukrainian investments - seemingly glossing over those where under a previous Ukrainian government - and the majority of those allegations where from a disgraced corrupt official from the older Ukrainian government that had been charge under the (then new) anti-corruption laws.

Personally I find President Trump's conduct towards Ukraine since then to be shameful and a national disgrace.
80%+ of Americans support Ukraine and view Russia as the enemy currently -- the Trump Administration should accept the desires of the American people in that regard.

However, Russia is a nuclear power, and Western Governments have not been good with dealing with Russia for years (see Chechnya, Ukraine, Georgia, Syria, the Stans, and internal Russian issues themselves. While Russia isn't so much a significant threat conventionally to NATO as a whole, they are a threat individually, NATO outside of the US had been freeloading on US power for decades, and still many NATO members haven't come to Jesus with the acceptance that it will take all of the Western powers dedicating assets to combat the authoritarian regimes.

Pressuring Russia on the negotiating table isn't going to work, until Russia comes hat in hand to the table -- right now Putin needs the war to continue to keep Russia focused on problems other than Russia. As I have mentioned here and other threads regarding the Russian situation, defeating Russia militarily in the Ukraine comes with a lot of X factors.
What happens to Russia when Putin realizes he cannot win?
What happens to Russia's nuclear arsenal if the Russian state fractures?
What happens to Russians if the state fractures - and what stops the Chinese from capitalizing on that?

Unfortunately a lot of people both in the US and the rest of the "West" seem to think there is some transactional methodology that can be reached to come to some sort of arrangement with Russia -- unfortunately like many in the 1930's misunderstood Adolph Hitler, a lot of people seem to understand that Putin wants USSR2.0 and that is to be his legacy.

Ideally someone in the Russian government would kill Putin, and come to the West saying - we need a makeover, with a lot of money, and help to rebuild Russia into a country that isn't a Mob run Gas Station.
However that seems to be wishful thinking at the moment, as Putin has purged pretty much anyone that doesn't see USSR2.0 as the end goal.

And there it is. Any security guarantee's made by the US specifically have already been rendered borderline worthless.

'You have my assurance': Trump says U.S. troops won't be involved in Ukraine peacekeeping

Asked in an interview "what kind of assurance" there is that US troops won't be involved in Ukraine after the war, Trump said "You have my assurance."

www.usatoday.com

Again the key to DJT isn't what he says it is what he does.
Not apologizing for him (I didn't vote for him), but he's erratic and his mind goes from one thought to the next - so on Thursday he could just as easily commit V Corps (unlikely but).

Putin only respects (or accepts) force - so 10 Ukraine needs more weapons and materials, and 2) until someone in the West puts soldiers into Ukraine - the entire process is irrelevant as it will mean nothing to Russia.

 

[daftandbarmy]

POTUS when he was #45 kept telling Europe to get off Russian oil as it made them susceptible to coercion by Russia.
He also send Stingers and Javelins to Ukraine, and other lethal aid, that had been disallowed by previous Presidents. At some point in time when Ukraine refused to turn over "evidence" against alleged illegal dealings of then VP Biden and his son Hunter's involvement in Ukrainian investments - seemingly glossing over those where under a previous Ukrainian government - and the majority of those allegations where from a disgraced corrupt official from the older Ukrainian government that had been charge under the (then new) anti-corruption laws.

Personally I find President Trump's conduct towards Ukraine since then to be shameful and a national disgrace.
80%+ of Americans support Ukraine and view Russia as the enemy currently -- the Trump Administration should accept the desires of the American people in that regard.

However, Russia is a nuclear power, and Western Governments have not been good with dealing with Russia for years (see Chechnya, Ukraine, Georgia, Syria, the Stans, and internal Russian issues themselves. While Russia isn't so much a significant threat conventionally to NATO as a whole, they are a threat individually, NATO outside of the US had been freeloading on US power for decades, and still many NATO members haven't come to Jesus with the acceptance that it will take all of the Western powers dedicating assets to combat the authoritarian regimes.

Pressuring Russia on the negotiating table isn't going to work, until Russia comes hat in hand to the table -- right now Putin needs the war to continue to keep Russia focused on problems other than Russia. As I have mentioned here and other threads regarding the Russian situation, defeating Russia militarily in the Ukraine comes with a lot of X factors.
What happens to Russia when Putin realizes he cannot win?
What happens to Russia's nuclear arsenal if the Russian state fractures?
What happens to Russians if the state fractures - and what stops the Chinese from capitalizing on that?

Unfortunately a lot of people both in the US and the rest of the "West" seem to think there is some transactional methodology that can be reached to come to some sort of arrangement with Russia -- unfortunately like many in the 1930's misunderstood Adolph Hitler, a lot of people seem to understand that Putin wants USSR2.0 and that is to be his legacy.

Ideally someone in the Russian government would kill Putin, and come to the West saying - we need a makeover, with a lot of money, and help to rebuild Russia into a country that isn't a Mob run Gas Station.
However that seems to be wishful thinking at the moment, as Putin has purged pretty much anyone that doesn't see USSR2.0 as the end goal.


Again the key to DJT isn't what he says it is what he does.
Not apologizing for him (I didn't vote for him), but he's erratic and his mind goes from one thought to the next - so on Thursday he could just as easily commit V Corps (unlikely but).

Putin only respects (or accepts) force - so 10 Ukraine needs more weapons and materials, and 2) until someone in the West puts soldiers into Ukraine - the entire process is irrelevant as it will mean nothing to Russia.

Anything out there from the CIA these days on the future of Russia?

 

[The Bread Guy]

And there it is. Any security guarantee's made by the US specifically have already been rendered borderline worthless.

'You have my assurance': Trump says U.S. troops won't be involved in Ukraine peacekeeping

Asked in an interview "what kind of assurance" there is that US troops won't be involved in Ukraine after the war, Trump said "You have my assurance."

www.usatoday.com

Aaaaand there goes my dial back closer towards the "POTUS47 as USSR 2.0 stooge" end of the scale ....

... the key to DJT isn't what he says it is what he does.
Not apologizing for him (I didn't vote for him), but he's erratic and his mind goes from one thought to the next - so on Thursday he could just as easily commit V Corps (unlikely but) ...

... although I'll keep my fingers crossed.

 

[Kirkhill]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1957519592202596421

Macron and Merz being the loudest voices about an Article 5 type security guarantee, and the EU Commissioner pushing the fact that the abducted Ukrainian children needing to be returned.

What is interesting is that today before the meeting Germany's MoD also admitted to helping Ukraine with its long range "Flamingo" ground launched cruise missile. 3000km range, and a 1,350kg payload. Which puts Moscow, St Peterburg, and most of populated Russia under threat.

Also rumors abound about the EU and NATO leveraging POTUS on the state of our finances and how much US Debt that Europe owns.

Interesting comment from POTUS that US Military personnel may need to be positioned in Ukraine to ensure a Peacekeeping force - which was absolutely not on Putin's accepted list.

I'd give Macron and Merz more credit if it was their own guarantees they were offering up rather than begging for American guarantees.

And for those that suggest that personalities don't matter in politics I would point to the difference between Johnson and Starmer. I would have to be convinced that Starmer would have backed JEF and offered security guarantees to Sweden and Finland in the manner that Johnson did.

Going so far as reminding Vlad that the UK had its own nukes to supply cover until Sweden and Finland cleared Orban and Erdogan and were admitted into NATO.

 

[Czech_pivo]

And there it is. Any security guarantee's made by the US specifically have already been rendered borderline worthless.

'You have my assurance': Trump says U.S. troops won't be involved in Ukraine peacekeeping

Asked in an interview "what kind of assurance" there is that US troops won't be involved in Ukraine after the war, Trump said "You have my assurance."

www.usatoday.com

Maybe the US should deploy the 'Peace Corps' along the frontlines to help rebuild the country. Say no closer than 1km from the border/frontline/LoC to 25km back of the front. Have them deploy 10-20k American workers under the US Peace Corps supervision/control. Can't see Vladdy attacking if this was a case.

 

[Kirkhill]

Aaaaand there goes my dial back closer towards the "POTUS47 as USSR 2.0 stooge" end of the scale ....

... although I'll keep my fingers crossed.

My underlying problem is that I was never sure if any US President, Kennedy included, was willing to risk Washington to save London, let alone Berlin.

I am not sure but what Trump isn't just saying the quiet bit out loud.

No American lives.

 

[QV]

Maybe the US should deploy the 'Peace Corps' along the frontlines to help rebuild the country. Say no closer than 1km from the border/frontline/LoC to 25km back of the front. Have them deploy 10-20k American workers under the US Peace Corps supervision/control. Can't see Vladdy attacking if this was a case.

Or Haliburton or other gigantic US corporations to rebuild

 

[Colin Parkinson]

POTUS when he was #45 kept telling Europe to get off Russian oil as it made them susceptible to coercion by Russia.
He also send Stingers and Javelins to Ukraine, and other lethal aid, that had been disallowed by previous Presidents. At some point in time when Ukraine refused to turn over "evidence" against alleged illegal dealings of then VP Biden and his son Hunter's involvement in Ukrainian investments - seemingly glossing over those where under a previous Ukrainian government - and the majority of those allegations where from a disgraced corrupt official from the older Ukrainian government that had been charge under the (then new) anti-corruption laws.

Personally I find President Trump's conduct towards Ukraine since then to be shameful and a national disgrace.
80%+ of Americans support Ukraine and view Russia as the enemy currently -- the Trump Administration should accept the desires of the American people in that regard.

However, Russia is a nuclear power, and Western Governments have not been good with dealing with Russia for years (see Chechnya, Ukraine, Georgia, Syria, the Stans, and internal Russian issues themselves. While Russia isn't so much a significant threat conventionally to NATO as a whole, they are a threat individually, NATO outside of the US had been freeloading on US power for decades, and still many NATO members haven't come to Jesus with the acceptance that it will take all of the Western powers dedicating assets to combat the authoritarian regimes.

Pressuring Russia on the negotiating table isn't going to work, until Russia comes hat in hand to the table -- right now Putin needs the war to continue to keep Russia focused on problems other than Russia. As I have mentioned here and other threads regarding the Russian situation, defeating Russia militarily in the Ukraine comes with a lot of X factors.
What happens to Russia when Putin realizes he cannot win?
What happens to Russia's nuclear arsenal if the Russian state fractures?
What happens to Russians if the state fractures - and what stops the Chinese from capitalizing on that?

Unfortunately a lot of people both in the US and the rest of the "West" seem to think there is some transactional methodology that can be reached to come to some sort of arrangement with Russia -- unfortunately like many in the 1930's misunderstood Adolph Hitler, a lot of people seem to understand that Putin wants USSR2.0 and that is to be his legacy.

Ideally someone in the Russian government would kill Putin, and come to the West saying - we need a makeover, with a lot of money, and help to rebuild Russia into a country that isn't a Mob run Gas Station.
However that seems to be wishful thinking at the moment, as Putin has purged pretty much anyone that doesn't see USSR2.0 as the end goal.


Again the key to DJT isn't what he says it is what he does.
Not apologizing for him (I didn't vote for him), but he's erratic and his mind goes from one thought to the next - so on Thursday he could just as easily commit V Corps (unlikely but).

Putin only respects (or accepts) force - so 10 Ukraine needs more weapons and materials, and 2) until someone in the West puts soldiers into Ukraine - the entire process is irrelevant as it will mean nothing to Russia.

I know Russians who think Putin is the West lackey and want him replaced with someone who is more anti-west and will "fight with the gloves off in Ukraine" They see the war there as a "civil war" that is not the West concern.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Or Haliburton or other gigantic US corporations to rebuild

No, not at all.

Having the US bring in the 'US Peace Corps' and only the 'US Peace Corps' would severely limit the ability of Vladdy to attack any area in which they were present. The population in the US has the notion that the Peace Corps goes to places to help the lives of those in need, to help re-establish infrastructure and services. When you say 'Haliburton' to any American they think - Dick Cheney, Iraq, corruption, military contractors, overpaid.

 

[HavokFour]

Japan seems to be prepared to jump in.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1957879496352100850

And this is something to keep a very close eye on regarding Ukraine's EU ambitions, Orban being one of the bigger roadblocks.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1957883127252271606

 

[Eaglelord17]

The way I see it Ukraine needs one of two things before any peace deal is signed.

1) NATO membership or
2) Nukes

They already tried the ‘security guarantee’ without the teeth with the Budapest Memorandum, which was supposed to see them guaranteed by Russia, US, France, UK, and China. We all know how well that worked out.

 

[KevinB]

Anything out there from the CIA these days on the future of Russia?

As far as OS - just the fact book

Russia - The World Factbook

www.cia.gov

TG and JDV ensured that the Russian Desk was fairly crippled and a lot of actives where shuttered.

 

[KevinB]

The way I see it Ukraine needs one of two things before any peace deal is signed.

1) NATO membership or
2) Nukes

They already tried the ‘security guarantee’ without the teeth with the Budapest Memorandum, which was supposed to see them guaranteed by Russia, US, France, UK, and China. We all know how well that worked out.

Actually the three signatories to the Budapest Memo where:
1) Russia
2) USA
3) UK

China and France where not signatories as they where viewed as "no skin in the game" countries.

 

[The Bread Guy]

My underlying problem is that I was never sure if any US President, Kennedy included, was willing to risk Washington to save London, let alone Berlin.

I am not sure but what Trump isn't just saying the quiet bit out loud.

No American lives.

Then maybe he shouldn't have said out loud earlier in the week that US troops were not out of the question, no?

Or is this part of foreign and domestic policy as stream of consciousness keeping everyone off balance?