Political impacts of Ukraine war

[CBH99]

Certainly a very desperate gamble to make.

A bit concerning that this is now coming from US sources.

Russia plotting attack on Poland to test Nato’s resolve, US claims

Vladimir Putin could use an attack on Nato as a bargaining chip for the war in Ukraine, sources told Polish media

www.the-independent.com

Personally, I highly doubt Putin is planning for any such attack. Especially against Poland.

IF he were to attack a country that borders Russia, why attack the strongest one militarily? Why not target Romania? Or Lithuania?

Why attack the one country that will park their tanks in Moscow's suburbs and make no apologies for it?

...

Sure, the Russians could send drones or missiles...

Or they could launch a limited ground invasion & say it was an accident. But if it was an accident, why would NATO cease funding Ukraine when the expectation would be for them to withdraw anyway?

The Russians could do any number of things. But until there is evidence that indicates Russia is planning to do something specific, the list of things they could do or might do seems pretty exhaustive...

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I have said it before and will say it again - Putin isn't stupid guys. He's actually incredibly intelligent, pays attention to the details, and has survived thing long with a long list of enemies both inside and outside Russia.

He is well aware he cannot afford a war on 2 fronts right now. The last thing he needs is a reason to divert resources away from his Ukraine objectives, especially to fight Poland of all places...

I have a hard time imagining Putin going for Poland. Even if Trump had the US military turn around and f@&$ off at the high port for Brest, Poland would be a very hard target for Russia. I think it’s more plausible that Putin go for a bite-and-hold somewhere in the Baltics. Take a chunk of say Estonia until they meet NATO resistance then dare NATO to push them out.

Exactly this.

 

[Altair]

I have said it before and will say it again - Putin isn't stupid guys. He's actually incredibly intelligent, pays attention to the details, and has survived thing long with a long list of enemies both inside and outside Russia.

Intelligently into day 1592 of a 3 day special military operation.

 

[Eaglelord17]

Intelligently into day 1592 of a 3 day special military operation.

You can make mistakes and still be intelligent.

Russia has won most the wars he brought them into. This is the exemption so far. If he had done this in 2014 before NATO helped Ukraine it likely would have just been a couple of weeks.

 

[Altair]

You can make mistakes and still be intelligent.

Russia has won most the wars he brought them into. This is the exemption so far. If he had done this in 2014 before NATO helped Ukraine it likely would have just been a couple of weeks.

I agree completely that one can be intelligent and make a mistake.

I start to question said intelligence when someone doesn't learn from the mistake or assess the mistake and doesn't choose a different COA

 

[Eaglelord17]

I agree completely that one can be intelligent and make a mistake.

I start to question said intelligence when someone doesn't learn from the mistake or assess the mistake and doesn't choose a different COA

Believe it or not Putin is actually a moderate in terms of keeping the war going.

It isn’t something he can just call off in terms of his survival. He is locked in, the question is can he turn it around (and it is looking less and less likely).

It’s his invasion of Russia moment, there is no just walk away for him, it’s win or die.

His election interference in the US did look like it was paying off heavily for a bit. Russia certainly is in a better place right now than if something similar to the Biden administration carried on.

The unfortunate thing is the more he is backed into a corner the more stuff like nukes seem viable.