If, big IF, we somehow did become a spacefaring race, we humans will change. Drastically. Our evolution is no mistake. We got here by a handful of apes making some poor decisions and then quickly adapted to survive a non-primate friendly environment.If humankind wants to survive, the abilty to detect, track, divert or destroy objects in space is critical. 2nd to that is a colony on Mars and eventual spacefaring. that might allows us to survive for a million years. Once we are able to stay in space and are able to mine and process material there, then we will be able to expand again. Having to launch everything from the planet is way to inefficient to be able to truly become a space faring race.
As someone who has seen significant job shifts in the last 20 years in my profession (Forestry) I can understand 100% what the concern is. When I started folks were hired to:I think there is a strong possibility that the labour market for a lot of jobs will basically seize to exist if AI works out how it is looking like it might work out. There is a strong chance the problem in 10 years won't be there isn't enough workers, rather there isn't enough jobs.
Obviously there are plenty of jobs that won't be effected, mainly the manpower based jobs, but for office jobs they shall basically have the downsizing that happened to industry with automation happen to them.
Where that leaves the economy is anyones guess, could lead to wars and revolutions as the main things to avoiding those is having food on the table and work to provide it. We won't need population to drive growth anymore, might be the beginning of a whole new reality.
I could see my industry, the railroad, trying to cut personnel further. I think the position of Mainline Conductor will disappear within a decade and Freight Trains will go to a one person crew with only an Engineer onboard. Conductors won't actually be on the train any more but will be assigned a territory where they will drive to the train by vehicle should they be needed.As someone who has seen significant job shifts in the last 20 years in my profession (Forestry) I can understand 100% what the concern is. When I started folks were hired to:
- literally hand color maps -> GIS based systems able to adjust scale/transparency/filter- timber cruise -> LIDAR based systems that are measuring entire forests to the tree with greater accuracy than humans- walk block boundaries for signs of streams -> LIDAR derived mapping of not only channel locations but also saturated soils- lumber graders in sawmills -> optical eyes able to consistently grade lumber- head rig operator in sawmill choosing cuts -> 3d scan profile, with optimal alignment to head rig, optimized for value or production- Air Photo interpreter -> satellite or image ortho data capture, multi-spectral based, and semi automated analysis- Satellite imagery of black and white 10m pixel resolution was top notch -> free, online, coverage every 2-3 days of full color/spectral band imagery at same resolution. Private vendors now offer as small as 15 cm pixel resolution imagery on the open market....- Manual addition of volumes/weights/measures -> automated reports generated via barcode or simple minimal entryThere's more but what people sometimes lose sight of is that AI is based off of knowledge...and some of the changes are driving more requests for more knowledge. So while I see more automated reporting (positive to people manually adding up columns of numbers) the temptation is to start looking for what else could be asked...and quickly drains into a toilet bowl of sewer issues and micro management. While AI can accelerate basic metric reporting and/or information flow it can not provide context to the numbers and it still does replace someone who is actually doing a task - especially variable and inconsistent tasks - and each task creates an exponential increase in data variables to consider.
I often think of the information lag in the last 100 years - from newspapers and telegrams -> newspapers and radio -> newspapers and TV -> live TV broadcasts -> internet snippet on webpages -> smart devices updating news constantly. What is not acknowledged is that there is also a capacity for most people to absorb information at once and filtering the information overload is almost as important to allow effective use of information as is providing the information itself. We've all submitted large reports/write ups that expanded constantly to include more information "just in case" only to be asked in summery - guilty or not?
That must be a bitch when going up and down hills, especially if you have fully loaded cars (grain and oil) and empty or near empty container cars.The problem the computer faces is that it is unable to feel the slack come in to the train and reacts poorly to sudden changes in tension in the joints of the cars. Driving a train is a constant struggle to keep tension between the cars and humans are just simply better at it due to our sense of touch.
What about when they put sensors measuring the pressure between each of the cars and can set actual thresholds as opposed to the operator "feeling" the changes?That must be a bitch when going up and down hills, especially if you have fully loaded cars (grain and oil) and empty or near empty container cars.
Listened to some DJ talk about "RadioGPT" They sounded worried and I don't blame them as radio station operators are really cheap bastards who will be happy to be rid of radio personalities RadioGPTThe job loses because of AI are overblown. Yes writers will be over affected....that is why you are seeing so much about it.
You can go back to the 20 teens Silicon Valley promise self driving cars by mid 2020's. They are no where insight or ready for primetime. It is turning out to be much much harder than first thought. (Wow who could have thought that?) They can't even get a truck platooning app to work. And the motivation for that is huge because of the driver cost function. Truck driver is largest single employment category of employment in North America. They are not losing their jobs anytime soon.
People listen to radio?