Noctis said:
While this answer isn't wrong, it isn't very informative either.
The truth is that you will not receive any marks against you, or a direct disadvantage, on your application for not having been in cadets or the reserves. Reservists apply for component transfers to the reg force (unless of course they released at some point, and are coming in from civi street) and I'm not 100% sure if they're included in the recruiting goals for ROTP from the civi population, or if there are separate targets for CTs.
The only disadvantage you would have against people with prior experience in either cadets or the reserves is that those people may have more examples of teamwork, leadership, and the other things they're looking for in the interview. Basically, they have an experience that you do not have which gives them an advantage in that sense. I had prior CF time but applied as a civilian (long story) and was able to use my experience in the forces to my advantage in the application. The recruiter was convinced that I, more than most, knew what I was getting into and I was obviously able to demonstrate more knowledge of my desired trades and life in the CF in general, having had some experience in it.
So my point is this: you will not be docked points for not having done cadets or reserves, but you will be competing with people who may have these experiences and will therefore have the possible advantage of using their experiences to their favor. That being said, you probably have experiences they don't, so the onus is on you to find a way to market your experience as valuable to the CF, and valuable in preparing you to embark on a career as an officer.
As far as what you posted about your competitiveness- no one here can tell you how competitive you are. It's all about how you stack up against the competition. X # of spots will go to X # of people from the top of the list. That's how simple it is. Some years have stronger applicants than others, and that determines how competitive you will be.
Don't fret or worry, just get out and make yourself as competitive as possible. Volunteer, find leadership opportunities and positions, work, do things that make you a better applicant than the next guy walking in the door.
Good luck.