Replacing the Subs

[YZT580]

You're making a lot of assumptions that don't reflect how the RCN actually introduces a new class of submarine.

The biggest flaw is the belief that getting the first boat a year earlier somehow solves the manpower problem. It doesn't. It simply moves the problem forward by a year unless the training, maintenance, infrastructure, spares, simulators, documentation, and certification systems are already being built in parallel. And that is exactly the point people keep missing.

Once the submarine is selected, especially if the Korean design is chosen, you are going to see a steady stream of Canadian submariners, engineers, technicians, maintainers, instructors, and project staff going to Korea long before the first Canadian boat ever shows up in Halifax or Esquimalt. That is where the real transition starts. Not on delivery day. Not when the first submarine sails into Canada. It starts years earlier with Canadians embedded in training, construction, trials, documentation, maintenance planning, and acceptance work.

There is also a rumour floating around that Korea may even lend Canada a boat to accelerate crew training. If that turns out to be true, it would only reinforce the point. The manpower solution is not simply “deliver Boat 1 sooner.” The solution is getting Canadian crews onto the selected class as early as possible, building the training cadre, and growing the support system before Canada receives its own fleet.

Your suggestion of “robbing Peter to pay Paul” is exactly what the RCN has been trying to avoid for decades. Strip experienced sailors out of the Victoria class and you've just degraded the very fleet responsible for keeping the submarine service alive. You haven't created people. You've simply redistributed a shortage.

And while everyone loves to talk as if recruitment and retention are in freefall, the reality is more nuanced. Recruiting and retention are actually improving with the new benefits, pay changes, and quality of life measures recently introduced. Is the problem solved? Of course not. There is still a mountain of work to do. But pretending nothing is changing ignores the fact that the CAF is finally starting to put resources in place to keep people and attract new ones.

The manpower challenge isn't caused by delivery schedules. It is caused by trying to grow from four submarines to twelve while sustaining the boats we already have. Delivering Boat 1 in 2031 instead of 2032 doesn't magically produce hundreds of submariners, engineers, technicians, and maintainers.

Question: We currently have 4 subs. If I have followed things correctly all are tied up at the moment although one could sail if needed. Are they all crewed or are there maybe 2 crews total for 4 boats? That first crew, if it actually exists, could be on an A330 for Korea by Monday and starting their training. (exaggeration I know)

 

[Czech_pivo]

Question: We currently have 4 subs. If I have followed things correctly all are tied up at the moment although one could sail if needed. Are they all crewed or are there maybe 2 crews total for 4 boats? That first crew, if it actually exists, could be on an A330 for Korea by Monday and starting their training. (exaggeration I know)

One is in Hawaii right now.

 

[Underway]

Question: We currently have 4 subs. If I have followed things correctly all are tied up at the moment although one could sail if needed. Are they all crewed or are there maybe 2 crews total for 4 boats? That first crew, if it actually exists, could be on an A330 for Korea by Monday and starting their training. (exaggeration I know)

No one here should be telling you the numbers. But any ships/boats in refit don't have full crews. They never do. Adding 12 subs is a massive lift.

The RCN is undergoing an insane period of transition.

All new trades.
Increase in numbers to be trained across the fleet.
Completely new ways of doing things because of AEGIS being introducted.
Adding 12 submarines and getting those up an running.
Introduction of at current count, three new ship/boat classes (RCD, PRO, CPSP) while trying to keep HFX's running. There may be two more classes coming (Orca Replacement and CDC).
Change in how we do air operations (perhaps a Cyclone replacement, certainly introduction of Class 1 and 2 UAV's)

 

[Stoker]

Question: We currently have 4 subs. If I have followed things correctly all are tied up at the moment although one could sail if needed. Are they all crewed or are there maybe 2 crews total for 4 boats? That first crew, if it actually exists, could be on an A330 for Korea by Monday and starting their training. (exaggeration I know)

You’re not wrong to separate “four submarines” from “four deployable crews.” Those are not the same thing. Canada owns four Victoria class boats, but at any given time some are in maintenance, some are in trials or force generation, and some are simply not at a readiness state where you point them at the ocean and go. The limiting factor is not just hulls, it is qualified submariners, maintainers, instructors, shore support, and the whole training pipeline behind them. It will be the same construct when we get our future twelve boats.


That said, this is exactly why an early training pipeline with Korea would matter if Canada selects the KSS III. You would not wait until the first Canadian boat is sitting alongside in Halifax or Esquimalt before sending people. The moment the decision is made, you start flowing Canadian submariners, engineers, maintainers, combat systems people, logisticians, and future instructors through Korean schools, simulators, shipyards, and potentially even cross pol opportunities. That is how you build the cadre that later trains the rest of the force.


And yes, the “A330 to Korea by Monday” line is an exaggeration, but the point behind it is solid. The people do not have to be sitting around waiting for the submarine to be delivered. If Korea is selected, you will almost certainly see Canadians going to Korea early and often. There are already reports that South Korea is pushing hard on speed, industrial partnership, and practical training advantages, and the KSS III has already crossed the Pacific to Esquimalt as part of the sales effort and we have Canadian submariners on Korean boats as we speak.


The rumour that Korea could lend access to a boat or accelerate Canadian crew training would make sense in that context, though I would still label it as rumour until confirmed. Hopefully that it turns out to be true. That is exactly the sort of thing Korea can offer that matters: not just “we can build you submarines,” but “we can start turning your people into operators of this class before your first Canadian hull arrives.”


So no, we probably do not have four complete submarine crews sitting idle. But we likely do have the nucleus of a transition cadre. That first group would not be the entire future submarine fleet. They would training cadre. Send them early, train them hard, qualify them on the new class, bring them home, and use them to build the next waves. That's how you build your submarine force.

 

[Halifax Tar]

One is in Hawaii right now.

It drives me nuts how loosey goosey we are with ships movements now. There was a time, in a much younger HTs days, when talking about that publicly was a big no no.

 

[Czech_pivo]

It drives me nuts how loosey goosey we are with ships movements now. There was a time, in a much younger HTs days, when talking about that publicly was a big no no.

I agree with you - publishing that info after its occurred - maybe a 5-10 day lag should be the order of the day.

 

[Stoker]

I agree with you - publishing that info after its occurred - maybe a 5-10 day lag should be the order of the day.

Unless you want to stop social media or news, not possible. The best you'll get when the sub leaves, hits a port or comes home. If we were at war, a news blackout would occur but you'll still reports of subs leaving or hitting ports unless we choke the internet.

 

[Halifax Tar]

I agree with you - publishing that info after its occurred - maybe a 5-10 day lag should be the order of the day.

Not your fault my man. We (The institution) post this shit on social media now... Its bonkers...