Replacing the Subs

[JLB50]

The ongoing story... but wishing won't make it so

The Hollowing Out of Kim Jong Un’s North Korea​

Despite North Korea’s presence on the world stage with its nuclear weapons, the Kim dynasty is slowly and irreversibly breaking down.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un continues to accelerate the country’s nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs. At the same time, North Korea has been a key supplier of arms to Russia as the war in Ukraine progresses. Both of these actions are critical threats to South Korea, the United States, and Japan. But the outside world is missing an equally important development with immense implications for stability on the Korean Peninsula—the slow and irreversible breakdown of the Kim dynasty.

The Hollowing Out of Kim Jong Un’s North Korea

Despite North Korea’s presence on the world stage with its nuclear weapons, the Kim dynasty is slowly and irreversibly breaking down.

carnegieendowment.org

Not saying it won’t happen but I’ll believe it when I see it. I remember reading reports just several years ago about how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was going to lead to the collapse of Putin’s regime and pretty much the whole country. Remember all the speculation about Putin’s obvious signs of serious health problems? And how all the international banking and other economic sanctions would lead to a quick financial collapse of Russia? And how the Russian army would throw down their weapons and walk away from the Ukrainian battlefields a la WW1? How the Russian elite would stage a palace revolt and assassinate Putin?

Yes, East Germany collapsed and was reunited with its western counterpart. And, yes, the USSR bit the dust. But I suspect that I will be pushing up daisies by the time North Korea ultimately fails. And that will happen only when communist China itself also fails. Until then Rocket Man will continue to rattle his sabre on the international stage as his people starve.

 

[YZT580]

Not saying it won’t happen but I’ll believe it when I see it. I remember reading reports just several years ago about how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was going to lead to the collapse of Putin’s regime and pretty much the whole country. Remember all the speculation about Putin’s obvious signs of serious health problems? And how all the international banking and other economic sanctions would lead to a quick financial collapse of Russia? And how the Russian army would throw down their weapons and walk away from the Ukrainian battlefields a la WW1? How the Russian elite would stage a palace revolt and assassinate Putin?

Yes, East Germany collapsed and was reunited with its western counterpart. And, yes, the USSR bit the dust. But I suspect that I will be pushing up daisies by the time North Korea ultimately fails. And that will happen only when communist China itself also fails. Until then Rocket Man will continue to rattle his sabre on the international stage as his people starve.

I wouldn't be quite so pessimistic. Remember Nicolae Ceaușescu. He thought his regime would last a long time too.

 

[Furniture]

Not saying it won’t happen but I’ll believe it when I see it. I remember reading reports just several years ago about how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was going to lead to the collapse of Putin’s regime and pretty much the whole country. Remember all the speculation about Putin’s obvious signs of serious health problems? And how all the international banking and other economic sanctions would lead to a quick financial collapse of Russia? And how the Russian army would throw down their weapons and walk away from the Ukrainian battlefields a la WW1? How the Russian elite would stage a palace revolt and assassinate Putin?

Yes, East Germany collapsed and was reunited with its western counterpart. And, yes, the USSR bit the dust. But I suspect that I will be pushing up daisies by the time North Korea ultimately fails. And that will happen only when communist China itself also fails. Until then Rocket Man will continue to rattle his sabre on the international stage as his people starve.

It seems that Russia is just prolonging the fall, which is likely to make it worse.

Part of the reason the USSR fell was the war in Afghanistan. The war in Ukraine is more deadly, and the rest of the world is punishing Russia more. People may have jumped the gun on calling the collapse of Russia, but Russia's future is far from secure.

To bring this back to subs, the ability to reach out an touch people unseen may become inrecreasingly important as the world continues to destabilize.

 

[MilEME09]

To bring this back to subs, the ability to reach out an touch people unseen may become inrecreasingly important as the world continues to destabilize.

not just touch,, but actually achieve strategic results, If we are firing missiles from a sub, I want to level a factory or hanger, not damage a plane

 

[PHughes]

not just touch,, but actually achieve strategic results, If we are firing missiles from a sub, I want to level a factory or hanger, not damage a plane

If that plane is sub hunter that has a fix on you, you will pray you have anti aircraft missile you can use to eliminate the threat

 

[MilEME09]

If that plane is sub hunter that has a fix on you, you will pray you have anti aircraft missile you can use to eliminate the threat

and i was referring to strategic targets, what you just described is a tactical target

 

[Underway]

If that plane is sub hunter that has a fix on you, you will pray you have anti aircraft missile you can use to eliminate the threat

You have to be sure. A missile launch is a perfect datum as to where the submarine is. If you miss or there are other ASW assets in the vicnity you're done. From a cost analysis (lives, money, training, infrastructure), trading an MPA for a submarine is cheap. Lose rook, take queen. Not that you want to trade ever.

 

[OldSolduer]

I wouldn't be quite so pessimistic. Remember Nicolae Ceaușescu. He thought his regime would last a long time too.

Oh he was a gem - and his wife too. I recall the news coverage after they were both executed by firing squad.

A proper thing IMO.

 

[KevinB]

Back in the 80s when it was the Mulroney Gov looking at Nuc boats its was the USA that was closing doors on us. They didnt want us to have them.

Do we think in 20-25 years SK wont care what the US has to say ?

That narrative keeps getting rehashed, it’s wrong. It is wrong as the Canadian Government was the government that walked away from that. The USG supported the RCN SSN’s.

The USN actively opposed the Polar Nuke Ice Breaker, not the Subs. One may suspect that this is would have been a capability that the USN and USCG didn’t have.

 

[Nvlgzr]

That narrative keeps getting rehashed, it’s wrong. It is wrong as the Canadian Government was the government that walked away from that. The USG supported the RCN SSN’s.

The USN actively opposed the Polar Nuke Ice Breaker, not the Subs. One may suspect that this is would have been a capability that the USN and USCG didn’t have.

USN opposed Canada getting nuc subs, but Reagan overruled the navy. There was much American opposition to allowing the Brits to sell Canada the Trafalgers. I think the notion of nuclear ice breakers was decades before Mulroney.