Replacing the Subs

[Czech_pivo]

Might be wrong, but it doesn't have to come from the PM or the MoD (MoD it should come from them but that's just me). Could be a press release. Or I could have the date wrong.

PM's agenda I believe has changed due to Orange Man saying that the Iran 'Peace deal' will be signed in Switzerland on Friday. M of D will be in Brussels on the 18th, so I could have gotten his dates wrong. Pretty sure that he's in Japan for a 4 day trade mission from 23-26 June.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

My guess is it will either be the PM or MOD announcing it, it is to big of a contract to go lower and they have to handle the rejected bid carefully.

 

[MilEME09]

My guess is it will either be the PM or MOD announcing it, it is to big of a contract to go lower and they have to handle the rejected bid carefully.

Toss the Germans something else and they will be happy

 

[OldSolduer]

Toss the Germans something else and they will be happy

Yes like a batch of new Leopards or something

 

[Furniture]

Yes like a batch of new Leopards or something

Can the army wait 30 years for new tanks? I'm pretty sure German kit in general has order lists stretching out into the 2040s.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Joey Attariwala visits the KSS-III, no interior video but a exterior scene showing the snorkel being raised and lowered. Also a discussion on the heads and how they work.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Irving pulling the, 'a new kid on the block in Halifax will potentially take Irving workers away through higher pay, benefits and better opportunities (my words), and wants a direct seat at the table going forward.

https://archive.ph/cXFJ4

Submarine repair plans spark shipyard labour dispute in Halifax​

 

[Czech_pivo]

Another article on the 'Bread and Honey' that is being promised to us by both sets of bidder.

https://archive.ph/37JJN

Canada's $80-billion submarine race sparks dealmaking blitz across the industrial heartland​

International bidders are striking dozens of side deals to invest in Canadian industries from autos to steel to LNG in attempt to win the contract

The resulting dealmaking blitz has raised hopes that increased military spending will provide a long-lasting boon for the economy, but it is also raising questions about the viability of all these side deals and whether future government procurements will see a similar barrage of public promotion from bidders.

Prime Minister Mark Carney is expected to announce a decision on the procurement by the end of June, likely this week.

This article was published on Wednesday - 17 June - according to the above sentence the sub decision could be announced today or tomorrow.
EDIT:

Minister McGuinty to travel to Luxembourg - Canada.ca

The Honourable David J. McGuinty, Minister of National Defence, will travel to Luxembourg on June 19th to deepen defence cooperation between Canada and Luxembourg.

www.canada.ca

McGuinty holding a press conference at 8:45 EST from Luxembourg this morning.

 

[JMCanada]

So close to Germany that he could announce something from there in the evening.
... or maybe reassure Germans while PM makes the announcement of Koreans selected.

 

[Underway]

So close to Germany that he could announce something from there in the evening.
... or maybe reassure Germans while PM makes the announcement of Koreans selected.

Or maybe its just a thing with Luxembourg and we're reading to much into it. This was probably planned two months ago... lol

 

[Czech_pivo]

Or maybe its just a thing with Luxembourg and we're reading to much into it. This was probably planned two months ago... lol

I don't see any planned press conferences by Carney or Fuhr today, only McGuinty.

 

[Underway]

I don't see any planned press conferences by Carney or Fuhr today, only McGuinty.

They will probably do the announcement with all the important people in the room. PM, MoD, Fuhr, CDS, CRCN

 

[MilEME09]

I don't see any planned press conferences by Carney or Fuhr today, only McGuinty.

Announce the Koreans while in europe? Thats evil, I honestly dont know how the Germans can win, the economic benefits and offsets the Koreans are offering affect the entire country now.

 

[Czech_pivo]

They will probably do the announcement with all the important people in the room. PM, MoD, Fuhr, CDS, CRCN

I agree.
Which brings me back to the Toronto Sun article from earlier this week by Lilley. In it he speculates that the announcement on the F35/Gripen saga will occur in July at the Farnborough Air show. That is set to occur in 1 month, 20 July. I wonder if there's any chance of both announcements - subs and F35/Gripen/GCAP partnership could occur at the same time. From an overall 'WOW' factor those announced together would be a massive statement and a huge 'Canada is Back Baby' PR move.

 

[MacNav63]

I agree.
Which brings me back to the Toronto Sun article from earlier this week by Lilley. In it he speculates that the announcement on the F35/Gripen saga will occur in July at the Farnborough Air show. That is set to occur in 1 month, 20 July. I wonder if there's any chance of both announcements - subs and F35/Gripen/GCAP partnership could occur at the same time. From an overall 'WOW' factor those announced together would be a massive statement and a huge 'Canada is Back Baby' PR move.

RE the subs, definitely an all hands on deck announcement by the PM with a backdrop of McGuinty, Joly, Fuhr, and regional development ministers. It's an event, not just a release. My bet would be Esquimalt with one of the Victoria's as a backdrop regardless of who wins (photo op out West more useful to the Liberals politically than Halifax). You're right, the Wow factor for this announcement is huge so they're going to milk it for all it's worth.

Wrong thread I know but since you mention the LIlley piece I would just caution against reading too much into it. The whole Postmedia network makes less and less effort to hide the degree to which its editorial bent is being aligned with the ideological leanings of its various US owners and their ties to the Republican party. The law may limit Chatham Assets' control of Postmedia's board but when you're majority owners want something, it's kind of hard to say no. The National Post and what's left of papers like the Citizen and Gazette make more of an effort at balance but the Sun of course has always hewn towards a more extreme and sensationalist approach. Then there's the fact that Lilley is an opinion writer, not a reporter. Opinion writers are generally writing for a reason, and that more often than not can come from a third party looking to get a message out. All that to say he may writing less from any solid information than from a narrative that someone has suggested to him. (Not that I've ever been involved in anything like that...)

 

[Czech_pivo]

RE the subs, definitely an all hands on deck announcement by the PM with a backdrop of McGuinty, Joly, Fuhr, and regional development ministers. It's an event, not just a release. My bet would be Esquimalt with one of the Victoria's as a backdrop regardless of who wins (photo op out West more useful to the Liberals politically than Halifax). You're right, the Wow factor for this announcement is huge so they're going to milk it for all it's worth.

Wrong thread I know but since you mention the LIlley piece I would just caution against reading too much into it. The whole Postmedia network makes less and less effort to hide the degree to which its editorial bent is being aligned with the ideological leanings of its various US owners and their ties to the Republican party. The law may limit Chatham Assets' control of Postmedia's board but when you're majority owners want something, it's kind of hard to say no. The National Post and what's left of papers like the Citizen and Gazette make more of an effort at balance but the Sun of course has always hewn towards a more extreme and sensationalist approach. Then there's the fact that Lilley is an opinion writer, not a reporter. Opinion writers are generally writing for a reason, and that more often than not can come from a third party looking to get a message out. All that to say he may writing less from any solid information than from a narrative that someone has suggested to him. (Not that I've ever been involved in anything like that...)

Interesting take on the Sun angle. Thanks for that.

Well, Carney is in BC now, though McGuinty is in Lux today, unsure when he's flying back at the House is on summer break as of today and he might be tacking a few extra days to his trip for a Euro holiday.

EDIT: Joly is in China/Japan until the 23rd of June.

 

[MacNav63]

Interesting take on the Sun angle. Thanks for that.

Well, Carney is in BC now, though McGuinty is in Lux today, unsure when he's flying back at the House is on summer break as of today and he might be tacking a few extra days to his trip for a Euro holiday.

EDIT: Joly is in China/Japan until the 23rd of June.

If I was a betting man, I wouldn't bet on it happening in the next two weeks. Joly is only in China until the 23rd in order to be back in her riding for the 24th, Fete nationale (aka Saint-Jean-Baptiste). The PM will also likely be in QC then too. That leaves four business days until Canada Day and I can't see them trying to jam something that big in to those days when most people are thinking of cottages, beer and burgers.

They have lots of time after that. Sure it's summer and it's quiet but that just means they'll get more bang for their bucks from such a game-changing announcement. Add to that the optics of blue summer skies and sailors in crisp white summer uniforms. Add a storyline of a Liberal government showing it's serious about defence in a way no government has probably since the 50's...as a public affairs type I've just died and gone straight to heaven.

 

[Czech_pivo]

If I was a betting man, I wouldn't bet on it happening in the next two weeks. Joly is only in China until the 23rd in order to be back in her riding for the 24th, Fete nationale (aka Saint-Jean-Baptiste). The PM will also likely be in QC then too. That leaves four business days until Canada Day and I can't see them trying to jam something that big in to those days when most people are thinking of cottages, beer and burgers.

They have lots of time after that. Sure it's summer and it's quiet but that just means they'll get more bang for their bucks from such a game-changing announcement. Add to that the optics of blue summer skies and sailors in crisp white summer uniforms. Add a storyline of a Liberal government showing it's serious about defence in a way no government has probably since the 50's...as a public affairs type I've just died and gone straight to heaven.

LOL - so rough approx between 6 July and 20 July, with 20 July being the start of Farnborough.

 

[MacNav63]

LOL - so rough approx between 6 July and 20 July, with 20 July being the start of Farnborough.

Honestly, if I was advising them on comms Farnborough wouldn't be part of the discussion because I'd be wanting to put some space in between the two announcements. To me the subs decision is just a clear win no matter which one they choose. Sure there will be disappointed lobbyists and their clients but that's true of any procurement and since the RCN apparently likes both boats it's hard to see a downside.

The fighter decision on the other hand is weighed down with a lot of baggage. Nature abhors a vacuum and that's what we've been seeing for the last nine months or so as the chattering classes tossed around whatever they thought might stick in the absence of the government making any more on a review that was reportedly completed. Why taint coverage of the sub announcement with the controversy that will swirl around the fighter decision whatever it is (he says happily typing this not on the fighter thread...).

On top of which, if I'm advising on comms, even if we see the fighter decision as a win like the subs, space them out and dominate the news cycle that much longer.

One last point, most Canadians have never heard of Farnborough and I can't see the government announcing a decision on something this important, and with all the "elbows up" baggage tied to it, against a foreign backdrop, unless they're trying to hide it. And that dog won't hunt.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Announce the Koreans while in europe? Thats evil, I honestly dont know how the Germans can win, the economic benefits and offsets the Koreans are offering affect the entire country now.

View attachment 100892

Be nice for a change that a politically driven choice of kit, also includes good kit. Both subs are excellent in their own way.