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Replacing the Subs

Irving pulling the, 'a new kid on the block in Halifax will potentially take Irving workers away through higher pay, benefits and better opportunities (my words), and wants a direct seat at the table going forward.


Submarine repair plans spark shipyard labour dispute in Halifax​

Be a good employer and people will be less inclined to leave.

No doubt there will be a crunch - any new large employer coming to town will do that.

I'm not sure giving Irving a seat at the table discussing employment issues at another business is a great idea.
 
Be a good employer and people will be less inclined to leave.

No doubt there will be a crunch - any new large employer coming to town will do that.

I'm not sure giving Irving a seat at the table discussing employment issues at another business is a great idea.
perhaps but there will definitely have to be a major recruitment effort on both coasts and enhanced training to go with it. Consultation with all 3 participants in the NSS as to numbers and training focus will be needed.
 
perhaps but there will definitely have to be a major recruitment effort on both coasts and enhanced training to go with it. Consultation with all 3 participants in the NSS as to numbers and training focus will be needed.
The training needs of Davie are quite different than the training needs of Seaspan and Irving due to 1 key issue - Language. Unless someone trained in the Halifax or Vancouver area is bilingual, their going over to Davie in QC is an non-issue.
 
perhaps but there will definitely have to be a major recruitment effort on both coasts and enhanced training to go with it. Consultation with all 3 participants in the NSS as to numbers and training focus will be needed.
Consultation and coordination are always good things. To me, a 'seat at the table' denotes greater involvement. Would they expect the same if GM or Bombardier decided to open an assembly plant (ludicrous as that may be)? Many skilled trades are transferable.
 
Consultation and coordination are always good things. To me, a 'seat at the table' denotes greater involvement. Would they expect the same if GM or Bombardier decided to open an assembly plant (ludicrous as that may be)? Many skilled trades are transferable.
Ask yourself this question - what benefit would Hanwa or TKMS get from having these meetings with Irving? Does it benefit Irving more, does it benefit Hanwa/TKMS and Irving the same or does it benefit Hanwa/TKMS more?
 
Consultation and coordination are always good things. To me, a 'seat at the table' denotes greater involvement. Would they expect the same if GM or Bombardier decided to open an assembly plant (ludicrous as that may be)? Many skilled trades are transferable.
true enough so the published reply should be: "We will coordinate with the shipyards and the manufacturer to identify the staffing needs and training required" end of story
 
Or maybe its just a thing with Luxembourg and we're reading to much into it. This was probably planned two months ago... lol
weird-al-crazy.gif
 
I get it. Iriving has put a lot of resources into developing a training pipeline with the local colleges and trade schools. But a bigger RCN will need more trades period.
Do we really want Irving trained people coming near the subs?
 
Is Irving still doing the work so many months then a lay off/ job contract change to avoid paying benefits to their trades people?
I would be scared also if actual competition was going to open up shop in my neighborhood that did not need massive handouts every couple of years because we cant keep sustainable work.
Not to mention how much potential money Irving might loose if a large shipbuilding company gets access to our market of resources directly along with our skilled work force.
 
Another article on the 'Bread and Honey' that is being promised to us by both sets of bidder.




Canada's $80-billion submarine race sparks dealmaking blitz across the industrial heartland​

International bidders are striking dozens of side deals to invest in Canadian industries from autos to steel to LNG in attempt to win the contract

The resulting dealmaking blitz has raised hopes that increased military spending will provide a long-lasting boon for the economy, but it is also raising questions about the viability of all these side deals and whether future government procurements will see a similar barrage of public promotion from bidders.

Prime Minister Mark Carney is expected to announce a decision on the procurement by the end of June, likely this week.

This article was published on Wednesday - 17 June - according to the above sentence the sub decision could be announced today or tomorrow.
EDIT:

McGuinty holding a press conference at 8:45 EST from Luxembourg this morning.
Aren’t our sailors still on board ROKS Dosan Ahn Chang-ho?

Colin put it best:
Yea that might be awkward if we go German. KSS arrives in Pearl, "Where are the Canadians?"

Sub CO "They got off midway when they heard the news"

"Umm what, how, where?"

Sub CO "I think English expression is : Long walk, short plank"
 
I asked ChatGPT to assign probabilities going forward as to which date we would announce the sub purchase.

Date Probability
June 26 (Friday) 20%
June 29 (Monday) 25%
June 30 (Tuesday) 20%
June 24-25 15%
After July 1 20%

Again, from ChatGPT
'My best estimate'

If the government follows the pattern used for major defense procurements, the most likely announcement day is Monday, June 29, 2026, with a joint announcement by:
  • Mark Carney
  • David McGuinty
  • The minister responsible for procurement/defense procurement
That timing would place the announcement immediately before the NATO summit while still allowing for cabinet approval and communications planning.

Separately (again this is coming from ChatGPT), based on the reporting and political signs available today, I would currently estimate the competition at roughly:
  • Hanwha Ocean: 60-65%
  • TKMS: 35-40%
 
Ask yourself this question - what benefit would Hanwa or TKMS get from having these meetings with Irving? Does it benefit Irving more, does it benefit Hanwa/TKMS and Irving the same or does it benefit Hanwa/TKMS more?
Letting a competitor have a say in how and where you can have your company would be a dumb move for the government to make. having local competition would be good for Irving. They likely dont wanna lose their gravy train, because if another ship builder opens up shop, it means they could lose the government contracts.
 
Letting a competitor have a say in how and where you can have your company would be a dumb move for the government to make. having local competition would be good for Irving. They likely dont wanna lose their gravy train, because if another ship builder opens up shop, it means they could lose the government contracts.
I thought the intent was to construct a service facility for the subs, not another shipyard? We barely have the market for what we currently have. Now if Hanwa were to team up with Ontario and re-build either St. Catharines or North Bay to the Korean standards then Irving should start to be concerned.
 
I thought the intent was to construct a service facility for the subs, not another shipyard? We barely have the market for what we currently have. Now if Hanwa were to team up with Ontario and re-build either St. Catharines or North Bay to the Korean standards then Irving should start to be concerned.
I used shipyard generically, my bad, but a repair and maint facility is a threat to that side of irvings operations
 
I used shipyard generically, my bad, but a repair and maint facility is a threat to that side of irvings operations
Can't see being that much of a threat except for trained personnel being drained away possibly. Its not like that repair facility is going to repair ships.
 
I used shipyard generically, my bad, but a repair and maint facility is a threat to that side of irvings operations
The subs today are primarily maintained out on the WC so the vast majority of the existing maintenance knowledge/experience resides there. The creating of a new facility on the EC for the 6ish subs to be stationed there will result in a new workforce dedicated to them.
 
I asked ChatGPT to assign probabilities going forward as to which date we would announce the sub purchase.

Date Probability
June 26 (Friday) 20%
June 29 (Monday) 25%
June 30 (Tuesday) 20%
June 24-25 15%
After July 1 20%

Again, from ChatGPT
'My best estimate'

If the government follows the pattern used for major defense procurements, the most likely announcement day is Monday, June 29, 2026, with a joint announcement by:
  • Mark Carney
  • David McGuinty
  • The minister responsible for procurement/defense procurement
That timing would place the announcement immediately before the NATO summit while still allowing for cabinet approval and communications planning.

Separately (again this is coming from ChatGPT), based on the reporting and political signs available today, I would currently estimate the competition at roughly:
  • Hanwha Ocean: 60-65%
  • TKMS: 35-40%
We need some sort of betting pool!
 
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