Russia in the 21st Century [Superthread]

[The Bread Guy]

If you are inclined to (maybe one day) launch an invasion, then you may as well get around to laying the groundwork with your legal pretext sooner as opposed to later.

But, but, but .... "Putin Wants Peaceful Coexistence With the West"

 

[McG]

A common foe may be knocking on Russia's southern door.

Islamic State may threaten Russia's Caucasus
By Sarah Rainsford
BBC News
29 Jun 2015

The head of Russia's Security Council has identified Islamic State (IS) as the greatest threat to world peace and security, and it seems the danger could be getting closer to home.

The militant Islamist group has proclaimed the establishment of a wilayaat, or province, in Russia's mainly-Muslim North Caucasus, suggesting it may be gaining the upper hand in a battle for control over radical forces there.

The statement follows an anonymous audio message posted online pledging allegiance to IS on behalf of militants in four regions.

But it remains unclear how far - and high - that support may reach among militants previously loyal to the banned, al-Qaeda-affiliated group Caucasus Emirate, which has long sought to carve out an Islamist state in the region.

Caucasus Emirate's presumed head has made no comment. Meanwhile, analysts say most militants who have publicly switched support to IS are largely unknown figures.

Rooted in the Chechen separatist movement of the 1990s, Caucasus Emirate has committed numerous terror attacks against civilians, including the Moscow metro bombing of 2010 that killed dozens. But its insurgency has recently focused on Russia's security forces.

Some fear an upsurge in deadly attacks if the network does indeed affiliate itself with IS.

"I don't think they are planning just to separate off a piece of the North Caucasus for themselves, to create a territory controlled by their jihadists," Grigory Shvedov of the internet news agency Caucasus Knot believes.

"I think the plan would be to use the region for terror attacks in Russia, which would show their reach and put them 'on the map'," he adds.

It is perhaps that heightened danger, coupled with renewed IS gains in Syria, which prompted a rare phone call between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Barack Obama on Thursday.

The White House says Islamic State was the top issue for discussion: the leaders' last call in February focused exclusively on the Ukraine crisis.

"Of course it is in our mutual interest to co-operate on this with the West, though we disagree on other issues," former Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov told the BBC.

"Modern security threats are international, we can't fight them alone," he added - a theme that Russian officials have begun to stress.

'Frustrated rebels'

The head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, has dismissed claims of an IS province in the region as "bluff", but also said the threat of the IS "virus" was not being ignored.

"We will destroy the devils and bandits without mercy," he pledged.

Whilst highly controversial, his tough methods have been relatively successful in suppressing the threat from the Caucasus Emirate in Chechnya - but the usual tactics could backfire badly with IS.

"I think a lot of rebels, especially the young, are very frustrated and would support a more radical response," believes Grigory Shvedov, and says that IS would back that.

Official estimates of how many Russian citizens have travelled to Syria and Iraq to join IS differ, though the most conservative count is more than 1,000.

Just this month, 13 potential recruits were returned to Moscow from the Syrian border, including a teenage female student.

On Thursday, Russia's Anti-Terrorism Committee said two people killed in Ingushetia were suspected of trying to recruit fighters for IS. 

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33311959

 

[Edward Campbell]

There's an article, reprinted from Foreign Affairs, about China's threat to Russia in Central and Eastern Siberia here.

 

[a_majoor]

Russia's hand in the Greek financial crisis. Instapundit makes an interesting comment about this:

Reagan won the Cold War, in part, by playing a long game designed to bankrupt the Soviet Union. It seems Putin now has similar aims, using the profligacy of European socialist countries such as Greece as a long-term weapon. Such profligacy holds the potential to bankrupt the EU if it continues to cave to political pressure to bailout Greece and similar entitlement-driven economies.  And if EU resists the pressure and refuses further bailouts, Russia will undoubtedly swoop in with offers of “assistance” to leaders more interested in keeping entitlements flowing than defending and preserving their countries’ freedom and democracy.

Russia's own economy is in difficulty, so offering to bail out Greece (especially given the almost certainlty of being stiffed for any loans or assistence) is perhaps a very long shot at best. Manipulating the situation and letting the EU consume itself makes much more sense, and leaves Russia's reseouces available to deal with other matters:


http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/07/08/is-putin-playing-puppetmaster-in-greece.html#

Is Putin Playing Puppetmaster in Greece?

As the Greeks move further away from the European Union and NATO, the Kremlin is poised to reap the benefits—with rumors swirling that Putin is already calling the shots.

The weekend’s stunning repudiation  of further European bailouts by a strong majority of Greeks shocked Brussels and beyond. That 61 percent of Greek voters want nothing to do with European Union “fixes” to their country’s grave fiscal crisis, which has preoccupied the EU for five years, represents a shocking development to Eurocrats.

What happens next is on everyone’s mind. Unless Athens comes up with a revised—and more plausible—finance plan very soon, expulsion from the Eurozone appears imminent. While that could cause financial instability for Europe, and may bring bad tidings far beyond, there’s one country that seems to be savoring this crisis.

That’s Russia. To the surprise of no one who pays attention to Vladimir Putin’s persistent efforts to undermine the EU and NATO, Moscow is poised to reap political benefits from Greece’s financial collapse.

The morning after the referendum, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras spoke with Putin to discuss the fallout—a full day before Tsipras spoke with President Obama.

Neither are close ties between Athens and Moscow anything new, or exactly hidden. Tsipras’s first foreign outreach upon becoming prime minister was to Moscow’s ambassador—not to EU or NATO partners.

The affection of Greece’s ruling Syriza party for much of the Putin worldview, including a reflexive anti-American and anti-NATO posture with strong doses of “anti-imperialist” rhetoric, isn’t something Athens has been shy about. Although Syriza’s far-left political orientation would seem to make it an unlikely partner for Putin’s  conservative, even traditionalist, Kremlin, shared anti-Western values seem to be enough.

Syriza’s robust Moscow links exist at several levels and are nothing new. Ideological harmony has been matched by money deals behind the scenes. Long before taking power at the beginning of this year, party leaders had regular discussions with top Russian officials as well as with far-right activists like Alexander Dugin, a neo-fascist ideologue who intermittently has the Kremlin’s ear.

Unsurprisingly, given the extent of Greece’s financial-cum-political crisis, anti-EU and anti-American sentiments run deep, to a degree not found in any other NATO country. Mounting concerns that Athens is falling into Moscow’s orbit, its ostensible Western political and military ties notwithstanding, are no longer a fantasy.

“For Athens, NATO seems to be mostly a paper exercise at this point,” a senior Alliance official told me, expressing a common frustration at Alliance headquarters, where Greek representatives are viewed with mounting suspicion. Many in NATO fear that information shared with Greece, including intelligence, is winding up in Moscow. Recently the Alliance executed a long-overdue cull of Russian liaison officers in Brussels, many of whom were barely concealed spies, and now there’s fear that the Kremlin can make up that setback with Greek help.

It’s premature to suggest that Greece might actually leave NATO, much less the EU, since Athens gets considerable benefits from both partnerships, but it’s certainly time to ask where that country’s sympathies truly lie. More than a shared Orthodox faith, buttressed by hazy paeans to long-dead Byzantium, is at work now in the relationship between Athens and Moscow.

The involvement of Russian intelligence in present-day Greek turmoil plays an important role, albeit one seldom discussed openly. Greece has long been a playground for Kremlin spies. During the Cold War, KGB operatives worked in Greece with a degree of impunity they found in no other NATO country, while Soviet spies penetrated Greek politics and society very deeply.

Under Putin, such covert linkages have been reestablished, and secret Russian activities in Greece today enjoy a degree of openness they never had in Soviet times. Since Syriza came to power, the already significant contingent of Russian intelligence officers serving in Athens under official covers (usually as diplomats) has been bolstered, according to Western security officials. Friendly meetings between Greek officials and representatives of the SVR and GRU, Russian military intelligence, detected by NATO intelligence, have been a cause of discussion and concern in Brussels, Washington, and beyond.

It’s not like Syriza has been hiding all of this. Defense Minister Panos Kammenos, shortly after a visit to Moscow last fall, signed a memorandum of understanding between his Athens think tank, the Institute for Geopolitical Studies, and a Moscow counterpart, the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies, known as RISI.

However, RISI is no ordinary think tank.Headed by Leonid Reshetnikov—a career KGB officer who retired as a lieutenant-general and the head of analysis for the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, or SVR—RISI is a Kremlin outfit, a sort of governmental NGO that functions as the public face of Putin’s vast intelligence apparatus. Officially RISI is no longer part of the SVR, falling under the presidential administration, but no Western intelligence services accept that claim at face value.

“It’s like the bad old days when we didn’t trust the Greeks and they didn’t trust us. Only now Putin’s in the middle of the game.”

Reshetnikov, a one-time communist but now a devout, indeed militant, Orthodox Christian, is close to Putin and is one of the top movers and shakers in the Kremlin when it comes to spy matters. Speaking Greek and Serbian, he plays a large role in Russian activities in the Balkans, which have increased noticeably in recent months. Reshetnikov’s regular trips to southeastern Europe, where he denounces Western “imperialism” and does photo ops with senior Orthodox clergy, feature in local media, usually with praise.

Prime Minister Tsipras, too, has visited RISI headquarters, leading to the odd situation that one of the top security partnerships possessed by a NATO and EU country is with Putin’s foreign intelligence service. Current government assessments coming out of Athens “read like they’re written by the SVR—which they probably are,” bemoaned a European intelligence official. “We’ve always had our doubts about the Greeks,” he added, “but today’s situation is even worse than it was during the Cold War. The Russians are quietly running the show.”

Rumors of Russian money and influence calling the shots in Athens—or at least playing an outsized role—are no secret in NATO security circles. That Putin wants to harm Greece’s already precarious links with the EU and NATO is plain to see, and it seems to be getting close to fruition as the Greek crisis worsens.

“They’re only technically on our side,” explained a retired CIA officer with long experience in Greek matters. U.S. intelligence has never fully trusted the Greeks, with the CIA especially having misgivings stemming from the 1975 murder of Richard Welch, the agency’s station chief in Athens. While Langley blamed Phil Agee, a former CIA officer who went over to the Cubans and Soviets—think of Agee as the Ed Snowden of the mid-1970s—for Welch’s death, it was long obvious that Athens was never very eager to catch Welch’s killers. Neither did the 1988 terrorist assassination of the U.S. naval attaché to Greece, Capt. Bill Nordeen, promote trust.

Ties between U.S. intelligence and the Greek security services suffered for years, and things are getting unpleasant again. “We’re back to square one,” rued the former CIA case officer. “It’s like the bad old days when we didn’t trust the Greeks and they didn’t trust us. Only now Putin’s in the middle of the game.”

Time will tell if Moscow can pull a strategic win out of Greece’s mounting chaos. But there’s little doubt anymore that the Syriza government’s barely concealed ties with the Kremlin, particularly with its intelligence services, are causing serious heartburn inside NATO and the EU alike. It’s now Putin’s game to lose.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

But, but, but .... "Putin Wants Peaceful Coexistence With the West"

He certainly does, but on his terms and ever changing demands.

 

[vonGarvin]

He certainly does, but on his terms and ever changing demands.

Just as we want peaceful coexistence with him.  On our terms and ever changing demands...

 

[Kirkhill]

Just as we want peaceful coexistence with him.  On our terms and ever changing demands...

Is it coincidence that "The Red Flag" and this little ditty

"The Pitter Patter of Little Feet,
(Somebody or other) in full retreat.
Oh, Raise the Flag, but not too high.
(Somebody or other) goes running by.

Are both sung to the same tune?  >

 

[a_majoor]

The NextBigFuture blog is full of Russian press releases lately; new aircraft carriers, destroyers, submarines etc.
This one is interesting, basically it seems to take jamming and EMP up to 11:

http://nextbigfuture.com/2015/07/russia-has-new-anti-electronics-and.html

Russia has new anti electronics and anti-satellite weapon

Russia’s Radio-Electronic Technologies Group (KRET) is developing a fundamentally new electronic warfare system capable of suppressing cruise missile and other high-precision weaponry guidance systems and satellite radio-electronic equipment, KRET Deputy CEO Yuri Mayevsky told TASS on Thursday.

"The system will target the enemy’s deck-based, tactical, long-range and strategic aircraft, electronic means and suppress foreign military satellites’ radio-electronic equipment," Mayevsky said.

The system will be mounted on ground-based, air-and seaborne carriers, he added.

"It will not be based on satellites as this is prohibited by international rules and we comply with this rule," he said.

Mobile electronic warfare systems 'Krasuha-4' suppress spy satellites, ground-based radars and airborne systems AWACS (Airborne Warning and Control System).

'Complex 'Krasuha-4' fully covers an object from radar detection at 150-300 kilometers, and may also cause damage to enemy radar electronic warfare and communications systems.

'The complex functioning is based on creating powerful jamming at the fundamental radar frequencies and other radio-emitting sources.'

Of course one needs to understand the physics behind this; how much power is being input, conversion efficiencies and the coupling mechanism of the beam to the target, in order to understand how effective this *might* be and what sorts of countermeasures (besides bombing the crap out of every place that might be hiding one) you could use.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Meanwhile, initial reports suggest the Russian military machine is not immune from problems with infrastructure repair work:

Violations during repair work probably caused the Airborne Troops training center barracks in the Omsk Region to collapse, a regional law enforcement source said Monday.

"The barracks in the village of Svetly recently underwent repairs. According to one of the versions, errors possibly occurred during the repair, including a change in design of the building," the source said. "This version will be checked."

He said the external wall and roof partially collapsed.

A section of the four-story barracks of the Airborne Troops training center in the Omsk Region in Siberia collapsed on Sunday at 19:52 Moscow Time (16:52 UTC). There were 337 servicemen inside, and 38 found themselves under the debris.

A total of 22 servicemen have been rescued from under the debris of the Airborne Troops training center barracks in the Omsk Region in Siberia and taken to medical institutions, the Russian Defense Ministry said Monday.

More here and here.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Meanwhile, initial reports suggest the Russian military machine is not immune from problems with infrastructure repair work:More here and here.

#roundinguptheusualsuspects

Chief of Omsk-based airborne training center arrested over barrack collapse incident

Oleg Ponomarev partly admitted his guilt when he was earlier questioned as a suspect ....

 

[Retired AF Guy]

Re-produced under the usual caveats of the Copyright Act, an article from Frontline Defence Magazine, about modernization plans for the Russia military.

Russian Military awaits massive modernization

by Eugene Gerden
© 2015 FrontLine Defence (Vol 12, No 3)

The Russian government plans to suspend the approval of a new State Armaments Program, designed for the period of 2016-2025, due to a current economic crisis in the country and devaluation of its national currency – the ruble – caused by Western sanctions, according to an official representative of the Russian Presidential Administration.

The program, which is valued at RUB 30 trillion (US$20 billion), has been considered an untouchable item of the Russian federal budget, however, due to complex economical situation in the country, its implementation may now be postponed.

Instead, Russia plans to focus on implementing the existing State Armaments Program for the period of 2011-2020, which was approved in 2011. However, both the existing and the suspended armaments programs involve massive purchases of combat equipment.

The total cost of the existing program is estimated at 23 trillion rubles, of which about 19 trillion will be allocated for the purchase of new modern weapons and combat equipment for the Russian army. The remaining 4 trillion is for the introduction of these new weapons in the Russian arm – its tests, military exercises, and so on.

According to Valery Gerasimov, chief of the Russian General Staff, the program involves annual purchases of up to 100 fixed wing aircraft, 120 helicopters and 600 armored vehicles. However, last year the Russian army received 38 intercontinental ballistic missiles, more than 250 military aircraft, 280 armored vehicles, and more than 5000 units of motor vehicles.

According to Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s Minister of Defence, implementation of both programs is an acute need that will allow the Russian army to become more mobile and better prepared for quick responses and local conflicts, which will be contrary to heavy-handed Soviet army.

Topol-M intercontinental ballistic missiles, which are currently used in Russian army will be replaced by the RS-24 Yars MIRV-equipped, thermonuclear intercont­inental ballistic missile. Designed by scientists of the Moscow Institute of Thermal Technology, the RS-24 is heavier than the Topol-M (which can carry up to 10 independently targetable warheads). It is planned that during the 2015-2016 period, up to 150 Yars will be supplied for the needs of Russian army.

Among the other weapons and equipment that will be supplied for the needs of Russian army by 2020 are eight Borei Class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines; the new MS-26 rail-mobile Barguzin missile systems; the Sarmatian heavy liquid rocket; a new strategic bomber; two new missile defense systems, and other combat equipment.

The MS-26, an upgraded version of the Molodec missile system, has improved accuracy and range of flight, is a response to American strike power.

One of the new missile defence systems is the S-400 Triumf, a new generation anti-aircraft weapon system developed by Russia’s Almaz Central Design Bureau as an upgrade of the S-300 family. Details of the second system (currently being tested in Almaz) have not been disclosed.

The RS-26 Rubezh, nicknamed Avangard, is based on the RS-24 Yars. As of early 2015, this ballistic missile with hypersonic warheads is reportedly in advanced stages of development. A check launch carried out in March was leaked to media in advance.

As part of these capitalization plans, particular attention will be paid to further developing the country’s strategic nuclear forces. It is planned that by 2020 the share of new generation guided missile systems in Russia’s nuclear arsenal will reach 80%.

In the case of land forces, probably the biggest hopes of the Russian Ministry of Defence are pinned to its new generation of infantry fighting vehicle, the BMPT-72 Terminator 2. Built on a base of T-72 hull – including drivetrain and running gear – it has been designed to operate alongside MBTs or independently. It is anticipated that up to 150 units will be supplied to the Russian army between 2015 and 2017.

Overall, according to Minister Shoigu, 70% of the weapons, military platforms, and equipment in the Russian armed forces should be new or modernized by 2021.

Training

In addition to production and design of new equipment, the new program involves more active training of military specialists and experts. As part of these plans, Russian military high schools have increased the number of state-funded places this year to a record 13,000.

Air Force

Looking at Russia’s air forces, Minister Shoigu says that despite planned suspensions, both the national air force and naval aviation are currently undergoing modernization, which should be 33% completed by the end of 2015, while the share of operative equipment is expected to reach 67%.

As part of these plans, the Russian Air Force and naval aviation will receive 126 new aircraft and 88 helicopters, including the newest Su-35 fighter, which is currently undergoing testing.

By 2020, according to Air Force Commander Lt.-Gen. Viktor Bondarev, up to 56 S-400 Triumf anti-aircraft weapon systems will be supplied to the Russian Air Force.

In addition, about 454 storage units for missiles, ammunition and explosives (which will be combined into 13 arsenals), will be established in Russia this year.

Finally, more than new 140 cantonments will be built throughout Russia, the largest of which will be located in the city of Gadzhiyevo (Murmansk region) and will be a base for the Borei Class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines.

As for fighter capability, Russia’s T-50 fifth-generation fighter, designed by Russian aircraft manufacturer Sukhoi, is a stealthy, single-seat, twin-engine jet fighter. It will be the first operational aircraft in Russian service to use stealth technology. This multirole combat aircraft is designed for air superiority and ground attack functions. Up to 55 T-50s will be supplied to the Russian Air Force.

Navy

According to state plans, its submarine fleet will remain the basis of Russian naval power for the next several years at least.

Attention is expected to focus on the purchases of Borei Class submarines, which are built in Severodvinsk by local JSC PO Sevmash, the largest shipbuilding enterprise in Russia and the country’s only nuclear submarine producer.

This nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine is intended to replace the Delta III, Delta IV and Typhoon classes now in Russian Navy service.

Army

In addition to supplies, the existing State Armaments Program involves more active design and production of new weapons and combat equipment that is expected to propel Russian defence enterprises to capacity production levels.

The majority of future Russian combat vehicles will be built on the basis of the recently designed Armata Universal Combat Platform – a prototype for an advanced next-generation heavy military tracked vehicle. The new platform will provide the basis for a main battle tank, a heavy infantry fighting vehicle, a combat engineering vehicle, an armoured recovery vehicle, a heavy armoured personnel carrier, a tank support combat vehicle, and several types of self-propelled artillery.

For example, the new platform will accommodate the Buratino, a Soviet 220mm 30-barrel multiple rocket launcher and thermobaric weapon and its Solntzepek analogue, which can shoot thermobaric missiles that are comparable with nuclear, in terms of power.

Some leading Russian defence analysts have already welcomed the supply of the new Armata platform for the needs of the national army. Igor Korotchenko, Director of the Center for Analysis of World Arms Trade and one of Russia’s leading analysts in the field of defence, says: “Russia is the world’s first country that will get a tank of the 5th generation. This is very important because tanks still remain the main striking force of the ground forces of each country. The conflict in the Donbass revealed that armored vehicles and tanks are widely used even in low-intensity conflicts.”

Korotchenko has also added that the new Russian tank will have a special crew cell, equipped with comfortable conditions (in contrast to conventional tanks, where core temperature is very high). Its ammunition will be located in a separate compartment, and it will include automation of many functions, including surveillance, reconnaissance and communications.

A new Russian tracked vehicle platform based on the Kurganets platform will become the basis of at least three medium-weight (25 tonne) combat vehicles, such as new Russian infantry combat vehicles, airborne combat vehicles, lightweight self-propelled artillery systems and possibly air defense systems.

Implementation

Implementation of the state program may be significantly complicated by sanctions imposed on Russia, particularly for its military and defence companies.

Among the Russian defense enterprises that were included in the EU and U.S. sanctions list are such leading Russian producers of weapons and combat equipment as Izhmash, Uralvagonzavod, and Almaz-Antey. Their presence in the list means these companies no longer have access to some Western technologies that are used in their production processes. In addition, they have lost access to cheap Western loans, which were needed for further expansion of production.

According to Dmitry Rogozin, Russia’s first Deputy Prime Minister, successful implementation of the State Armaments Programs will make Russia’s armed forces one of the world’s most modern and well-equipped by 2020-2025, which is one of the most important goals of the Russian government for the next several years.

This is the second program of modernization of Armed Forces in the history of modern Russia. The first program, for the period of 1996-2005, was financially unrealistic and its implementation ultimately failed. It involved not only the 80% modernization of the national armed forces, but also massive purchases of new weapons and equipment which were not produced by Russian defence enterprises at that period of time. However, the annual funding of the program covered only 23% to 25% of the overall needs, and the government of the day, headed by Boris Yeltsin, was forced to suspend its implementation for an indefinite period.

Prime Minister Putin, on the other hand, seems intent on making the financial commitment work and see this large modernization completed.

====
Eugene Gerden, a former deputy director in the Russian Ministry of Defence, was responsible for fighting cyber crimes (2008-09).
© 2015 FrontLine Defence

Article Link

 

[a_majoor]

A fairly long article from Wired on the Soviet Union's mapping project. Unlike most maps we are familiar with, Russian maps were insanely detailed right down to things like the width of roads and load bearing capabilities of bridges. It is interesting to note that all this detail would need lots of "eyes on the ground", and I can only imagine since the fall of the USSR much of this information was digitized for ease of access. I would also not be surprised at all to discover that Russian agents are still operating around the world to keep this map database up to date:

http://www.wired.com/2015/07/secret-cold-war-maps

(First few paragraphs)

A MILITARY HELICOPTER was on the ground when Russell Guy arrived at the helipad near Tallinn, Estonia, with a briefcase filled with $250,000 in cash. The place made him uncomfortable. It didn’t look like a military base, not exactly, but there were men who looked like soldiers standing around. With guns.

The year was 1989. The Soviet Union was falling apart, and some of its military officers were busy selling off the pieces. By the time Guy arrived at the helipad, most of the goods had already been off-loaded from the chopper and spirited away. The crates he’d come for were all that was left. As he pried the lid off one to inspect the goods, he got a powerful whiff of pine. It was a box inside a box, and the space in between was packed with juniper needles. Guy figured the guys who packed it were used to handling cargo that had to get past drug-sniffing dogs, but it wasn’t drugs he was there for.

The Soviet Military secretly mapped the entire world, but few outsiders have seen the maps—until now.
Inside the crates were maps, thousands of them. In the top right corner of each one, printed in red, was the Russian word секрет. Secret.

The maps were part of one of the most ambitious cartographic enterprises ever undertaken. During the Cold War, the Soviet military mapped the entire world, parts of it down to the level of individual buildings. The Soviet maps of US and European cities have details that aren’t on domestic maps made around the same time, things like the precise width of roads, the load-bearing capacity of bridges, and the types of factories. They’re the kinds of things that would come in handy if you’re planning a tank invasion. Or an occupation. Things that would be virtually impossible to find out without eyes on the ground.

Given the technology of the time, the Soviet maps are incredibly accurate. Even today, the US State Department uses them (among other sources) to place international boundary lines on official government maps.


John Davies, a retired British software developer, has been studying the Soviet maps for a decade. PHOTO BY: NICK BALLON FOR WIRED
Guy’s company, Omnimap, was one of the first to import Soviet military maps to the West. But he wasn’t alone. Like the military officials charged with guarding the maps, map dealers around the world saw an opportunity. Maps that were once so secret that an officer who lost one could be sent to prison (or worse) were bought by the ton and resold for a profit to governments, telecommunications companies, and others.

“I’m guessing we bought a million sheets,” Guy says. “Maybe more.”

University libraries at places like Stanford, Oxford, and the University of Texas in Austin have drawers stuffed with Cold War Soviet maps, acquired from Guy and other dealers, but the maps have languished in obscurity. Very few academics have seen them, let alone studied them. Whatever stories they have to tell are hidden in plain sight.

But one unlikely scholar, a retired British software developer named John Davies, has been working to change that. For the past 10 years he’s been investigating the Soviet maps, especially the ones of British and American cities. He’s had some help, from a military map librarian, a retired surgeon, and a young geographer, all of whom discovered the maps independently. They’ve been trying to piece together how they were made and how, exactly, they were intended to be used. The maps are still a taboo topic in Russia today, so it’s impossible to know for sure, but what they’re finding suggests that the Soviet military maps were far more than an invasion plan. Rather, they were a framework for organizing much of what the Soviets knew about the world, almost like a mashup of Google Maps and Wikipedia, built from paper.

 

[Kirkhill]

And speaking of Russian mapping projects - take a look at map of nuclear explosions at the bottom of this National Post graphic.

https://nationalpostcom.files.wordpress.com/2015/07/bomb-1200.jpg

Talk about doing it to themselves......

What I find fascinating is the Brits did it to the Aussies, the French did it to the Algerians, the Yankees did it to the Nevadans, the Russians did it to everybody outside of Moscow - leaving no autonomous region unfouled. 

Can't help but wonder what effect that lack of discrimination has had on the local populations and how they perceive Moscow.

(And the Chinese appear to be doing it Xinjiang - a region notably friendly to Beijing).

 

[McG]

Meanwhile, the breakdown of military trade between Russia and Ukraine is starting to make a negative impact on Russian maritime and air capabilities.

Ukraine crisis: Why a lack of parts has hamstrung Russia's military
By Pavel Aksenov BBC Russian
BBC News
07 Aug 15

Russia's defence firms have been hit not only by Western sanctions but also by a breakdown in business ties with Ukraine.

For decades under Soviet rule, Russia's strategic industries had close links with partners in Ukraine, all centrally controlled from Moscow.

But relations soured last year, with Ukraine's pivot to the West, Russia's annexation of Crimea and the pro-Russian insurgency in eastern Ukraine.

The EU and US banned military exports to Russia, saying Moscow was supplying the insurgents with sophisticated heavy weapons and regular troops. Moscow denied the allegations.

Last month, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin told parliament that Ukrainian components were used in the production of 186 types of Russian military equipment.

That is a serious problem, he admitted, and Moscow could resolve it only by 2018.

Back in June 2014, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko ordered a halt to military co-operation with Russia - and that has shut down several projects.

Ukraine hosts the design bureau of Antonov military transport planes. The economic freeze has blocked plans to deliver a new heavy transport plane, the An-70. And this month, Russia stopped producing another transport plane - the An-140.

In February, Russia closed another programme - Rokot space rockets, which had been putting military satellites into orbit.

The Russian navy has suffered too. It was awaiting three Project 22350 frigates (Admiral Gorshkov-class), but they did not arrive because Ukraine did not deliver the turbines for them.

Communist-era production cycles involved defence plants in several Soviet republics, but they became independent states when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991.

Since then, Russia has become dependent on Western electronic components - especially computers, vital for all modern armies.

In a high-profile setback for the Russian navy, France cancelled delivery of two Mistral helicopter carriers. France finally agreed on a compensation deal for Russia this week, after long negotiations.

Since 1991, Russia's armed forces have continued to rely on Antonov transport planes - the An-26 (for lighter loads), An-12 (medium loads) and An-124 (very heavy loads). For the heaviest cargoes, Russia also has the Ilyushin-76.

All Antonov planes have Ukrainian components. Experts say suspension of the An-70 programme will not affect the Russian army much, but the lack of components for An-140 production will be a problem.

The Russian air force and navy had already received up to 10 new Antonovs before deliveries stopped.

There is an urgent need to replace ageing An-26 planes - production was discontinued in the mid-1980s.

Russia could revive plans to build a light cargo plane, the Ilyushin-112, but that means finding reliable Russian replacements for Ukrainian components.

"Whatever option it decides to go with, Russia's efforts to revamp its fixed-wing transport capabilities are being affected by the crisis with Ukraine in ways that go beyond the An-140," wrote analyst Gareth Jennings in Jane's Defence Weekly.

Ukraine has also been a key supplier of engine components.

In May, the Ukrainian company Motor-Sich stopped deliveries of helicopter engines for combat helicopters, but continued taking orders for civilian helicopters.

Mr Rogozin said Russia would strive to integrate engine production for the navy and air force, to reduce costs and move away from reliance on Ukrainian and Western equipment.

But a previous Russian attempt to reduce the military's reliance on Ukrainian equipment was only partly successful, Russian military expert Alexander Golts told the BBC.

"We can't take Mr Rogozin's statements at face value. We can believe them only when we see the first Russian gas turbines [for the military]," he said.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33822821

 

[McG]

... and on the civil front, Russia has stepped up its import ban of fresh produce from nations imposing sanctions; the prohibition now extends to selling as well as importing.  With particularly steep food inflation, there is some unhappy reaction to the Russian government destroying the contraband food that it discovers.

Russia destroys tonnes of foreign food imports
BBC News
06 Aug 2015

Russia has bulldozed a pile of Western-produced cheese and tonnes of other foodstuffs imported in violation of sanctions.

The country has also steamrollered fruit and burnt a huge pile of bacon.

The actions come a year after Russia banned some Western food products in retaliation to EU and US sanctions applied after Moscow annexed Crimea.

The destruction has caused an outcry from anti-poverty campaigners who say it should have been given to the poor.

One steamroller took an hour to crush nine tonnes of cheese. Another consignment was due to be burnt. Boxes of bacon have been incinerated. Peaches and tomatoes were also due to be crushed by tractors.

Religious leaders expressed outrage. One called the actions "insane, stupid and vile".

Russia has suffered notorious famines in its recent history which saw millions starve.

More than 285,000 people have backed an online petition calling on President Putin to give the food away.

The petition says that food sanctions have led to higher prices and shortages that are causing real hardship.

Food price inflation is running at around 20%.

Former prime minister, Mikhail Kasyanov, said that 20 million Russian citizens were below the poverty line, commenting that destroying food products was "some real triumph of humanism".

...

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-33814362

Russians shocked as banned Western food destroyed
By Sarah Rainsford BBC News, Moscow
07 Aug 2015

The sight of vast amounts of banned foreign food being bulldozed, buried or burned is causing controversy in Russia.

Tens of thousands of people have joined a protest petition to President Vladimir Putin.

For the past year, Russia has banned most fresh produce from countries imposing economic sanctions against Russia over the illegal annexation of Crimea. Now anyone caught breaking the ban will have their produce seized and destroyed.

As the presidential decree came into effect on Thursday, state TV ran reports accompanied by vivid images of huge, round cheeses being dumped and crushed.

Reporters hailed a crackdown on contraband, but many Russians are deeply disturbed by the development.

"If they start destroying food, what next? It's like our authorities don't care about the people," argues Muscovite Olga Saveleva, who has launched an online petition against the decree. It has attracted more than 285,000 signatures.

She says Western sanctions against Russia have already fuelled inflation and helped push more people into poverty.

"One pensioner wrote and said 'I can't eat, I can't buy this or that, so if you want to destroy produce, bring it to my home. I can eat it!'," Ms Saveleva recounts.

The memory of Soviet-era famines makes Russians particularly sensitive to wasting food. But President Putin's decree has its cheerleaders nonetheless.

This week a group of girls in T-shirts emblazoned with the slogan "Eat Russian" descended on a Moscow supermarket and began scouring the shelves for sanctioned foreign goods. Their raid eventually unearthed some illicit French cheese and bags of German nuts.

"This is prohibited!" the food patriots declared to a somewhat stunned-looking store manager, before slapping "sanctioned" stickers on the items, complete with a roaring Russian bear.

The girls believe the new law will stop such items reaching Russian shelves. Many banned items have entered through Belarus, after repacking and relabelling.

"Now everyone will know that there are sanctions," Anna explains. "If they try to get produce through now, it will be burned."

The move will complicate life for Russian restaurants, already facing rising prices and reduced customer spending power.

"The sanctions were a shock at first, but we adapted," says Easy Brix head chef Andrei Antonov, who explains that the restrictions have forced him to be creative.

"Our clients thought everything would run out and they'd just get potatoes - that was the joke," he laughs.

Instead, suppliers have sourced good-quality local produce or non-sanctioned alternatives - with one notable exception.

"Clearly you can't replace Gorgonzola with a Russian cheese, and a cheese plate is boring without it," the chef admits.

"I don't know where it comes from, and of course the price is different, but somehow Gorgonzola, Camembert and Brie are always available."

Until this week, only importing produce from sanctioned countries was prohibited, not selling it. But the agriculture ministry now says even warehouses could be raided and produce seized.

"I think we have to distribute food, not destroy it," says activist Andrei Volkov, who helps feed around 300 homeless people in Moscow each weekend, with the volunteer group Friends on the Street.

He has noticed demand for the handouts increase over the past year, as Russia's economic crisis has deepened.

"I know there are a lot of people who need this food. Destroying it is not humane," Mr Volkov argues.

The Kremlin has urged people not to "over-dramatise" the situation.

"Visually, it probably doesn't look very nice," spokesman Dmitry Peskov conceded. But he said that the produce being liquidated was smuggled food, without paperwork, and no-one could vouch for its safety.

As for the protest petition, Mr Peskov promises that the signatures will undergo "expert" checks.

Meanwhile, President Putin's decree stands and the next batch of banned food - including piles of fresh peaches and nectarines - has already been lined up for destruction.


Russian press outcry

• Mikhail Rostovskiy in the popular daily Moskovskiy Komsomolets says the authorities are behaving "like an actress in a second-rate variety show", against a "nightmarish scenario" of a failing currency, high oil prices and conflict with the West. "Domestic political stability is not everything," he writes, accusing Moscow of showing "clear contempt" for the views of ordinary people.
• In the government daily Rossiyskaya Gazeta, Irina Krasnopolskaya notes that the destruction of food has provoked "quite a lively reaction". But she is sceptical of the suggestion - made by anti-poverty campaigners - that the food should have been given to the poor, saying it would be impossible to monitor the safety of food imported with fake documents.
• Igor Tsukanov in business daily Vedomosti says the decision is no more than an empty gesture. "Could the source of the joy with which our authorities are destroying imported cheese and apples be the fact that they actually have no response to sanctions? What could we deprive Western countries of? … We'll show them our attitude, deprive ourselves of their food and then go and bury it."

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33818186

 

[a_majoor]

Some speculation on the post Putin future. Edward has suggested that the Russian state east of the Urals may become economically and politically detached from Russia and bound to China, and that does seem to be one of the more likely outcomes as the centralization of the Russian State under Putin becomes undone through corruption, increasing opposition and the ability of China to offer a better deal (especially when it comes to paying off corrupt local elites). Other outcomes are possible, of course:

http://nextbigfuture.com/2015/08/could-russia-breakup-after-putin.html

Could Russia Breakup after Putin ?

The Soviet Union came apart because it overstretched itself and ran out of money and ideas. Local elites saw no benefit in remaining part of a bankrupt country. It fragmented along the administrative borders of the 15 republics that made up the giant country.

Yet there was no reason why the process had to stop there. Indeed, many of Russia’s regions—including Siberia, Ural, Karelia and Tatarstan—declared their “sovereignty” at the time. To prevent further disintegration Russia’s then president, Boris Yeltsin, came up with the idea of a federation, promising each region as much “sovereignty as it could swallow”. Yeltsin made this promise in Kazan, the ancient capital of Tatarstan, which acquired many attributes of a separate state: a president, a constitution, a flag and, most important, its own budget. In exchange, Tatarstan promised to stay part of Russia.

This is an analysis by the Economist magazine with some more specific historical information from the NY Times and Aljazeera.

Putin is keeping Russia together through force and payoffs to regions and regional leaders. Putin will turn 63 this year (born Oct 1952). An average life expectancy for a wealthy Russian man who takes care of his health would be about 75-80 years. So a post Putin situation would likely become a reality by 2027-2032 based on his death from aging or earlier if he lost power for other reasons.

President Boris Yeltsin made statements to Russia's regions in August 1990 to "take as much sovereignty as you can swallow". It was taken earnestly by Tatarstan President Mintimer Shaimiev, who engineered a Tatarstan declaration of sovereignty later that same month.

There was a vote in March, 1992 by Tartarstan on sovereignty

A majority of Tatarstan's citizens then voted for state sovereignty in the referendum.

Mr Putin has reversed federalism, and turned Russia into a centralised state. He cancelled regional elections, imposed a “presidential” representative over the heads of governors and redistributed tax revenues in Moscow’s favour. But he did not build common institutions. The Russian state is seen not as an upholder of law but as a source of injustice and corruption.

In the words of Mikhail Iampolski, a historian, Russia at present resembles a khanate in which local princes receive a licence to rule from the chief khan in the Kremlin. For the past decade the main job of the Moscow-appointed governors has been to provide votes for Mr Putin. In exchange they received a share of oil revenues and the right to rule as they see fit. Chechnya under Ramzan Kadyrov, a former warlord installed by Mr Putin, is a grotesque illustration of this. In the most recent presidential election, Chechnya provided 99.7% of its votes for Mr Putin with a turnout of 99.6%. In return, Mr Kadyrov receives subsidies and freedom to subject his people to his own “informal” taxes and Islamic rules. Moscow pays a dictatorial and corrupt Chechnya a vast due in return for Mr Kadyrov pretending to be part of Russia and pledging loyalty to Mr Putin.

If Mr Putin goes and the money runs out, Chechnya could be the first to break off.

Tatarstan, home to 2m Muslim ethnic Tatars and 1.5m ethnic Russians, could declare itself the separate khanate it was in the 15th century. It has a strong identity, a diverse economy, which includes its own oil firm, and a well-educated ruling class. It would form a special relationship with Crimea, which Crimean Tartars (at last able to claim their historic land) would declare an independent state.

The Ural region could form a republic—as it tried to do in 1993—around Yekaterinburg, Russia’s fourth-largest city, or else it could form a union with Siberia.

Siberia itself could revive its own identity, from a base in the cities of Krasnoyarsk and Irkutsk, and lay claim to its oil-and-gas riches, which it would sell to China. Unlike Russia, China might not have much interest in territorial expansion into the sparsely populated Far East and Siberia, but it could (and already does) colonise these regions economically. Vladivostok and Khabarovsk, two of the largest cities in the Far East, are more economically integrated with China and South Korea than they are with the European part of Russia.

SOURCES- Economist, NY Times, Aljazeera, Wikipedia

 

[Edward Campbell]

In my opinion China does not want to "own" Siberia ~ many Chinese scholars believe the Qing dynasty went too far, in the 18th and 19th centuries, by annexing, rather than just subjugating Tibet and Xinjiang ... they are not "Chinese" enough to be part of China, proper. China want quasi-independent, client republics on its borders: dependant on China for trade and security, but, nominally at least, independent.

China's goal, I believe, is to dominate ALL of East Asia, and that means no "foreign" presence in East Asia ~ which, I think most Chinese think, is everything East of Kazakhstan and South to include the China Seas.

                   

 

[CougarKing]

How ironic for a country touted to be the world's 2nd largest oil producer:

CNN Money

Russia is facing a fuel shortage

By Ivana Kottasova and Virginia Harrison

Russia has lots of oil, but in a weird twist of fate, the nation could soon run dangerously low on gasoline.
The head of Russia's biggest oil company is warning that the world's second largest oil producing nation could soon face a fuel shortfall.

Rosneft's Igor Sechin predicts that Russia's gasoline shortage could reach 5 million tonnes a year by 2017. It produced around 38 million tonnes of gasoline in 2014, according to the energy ministry.
The expected shortfall is a result of many factors, including new tax rules, a weakening economy and Western sanctions that are hurting Russia's oil refining businesses. This is pushing fuel prices up, even as oil prices have plunged.

(...SNIPPED)

 

[a_majoor]

The effects of Hubris and the laws of unintended consequences are always amazing to behold.

 

[McG]

Western medical products and condoms may be next to face Russian sanctions.  But there are also signs that the population may be loosing its humour with the regiem's actions.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-33851990