Syria Superthread [merged]

[CougarKing]

Perhaps Ankara should take a more active, overt role in Syria than merely supporting a rebel faction of its choice, considering it's in their interest to ensure that the Syria conflict doesn't spread...

NPR.org link

Turkey Says It Shot Down Syrian Helicopter
   
by The Associated Press
 
September 16, 2013 2:34 PM


ISTANBUL (AP) — A Turkish fighter jet shot down a Syrian military helicopter on Monday after it entered Turkish airspace and ignored repeated warnings to leave, an official said.

The helicopter strayed 2 kilometers (more than 1 mile) into Turkish airspace, but crashed inside Syria after being hit by missiles fired from the jet, Turkey's deputy prime minister, Bulent Arinc, told reporters in Ankara.

Arinc said he did not have any information on the fate of the Syrian pilots, but Rami Abdul-Rahman, director of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, said rebel fighters captured one of the pilots, while the fate of the other one was unclear.

The incident is bound to ramp up tension on an already volatile border. Turkey has been at odds with the Syrian government since early in the country's civil war and has backed the Syrian rebels, while advocating international intervention in the conflict.

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, speaking in Paris after meetings about Syria with his counterparts from other countries, said Monday's encounter should send a message. "Nobody will dare to violate Turkey's borders in any way again," he said, according to Anatolia, the Turkish state-run news agency. "The necessary measures have been taken."

Arinc noted that the Turkish military had put its forces on a higher state of alert and changed the rules for engaging with the Syrian military along the border because of "'constant harassment fire from the other side."

He also noted that a Turkish jet was shot down by Syrian anti-aircraft over the Mediterranean in June 2012. Turkey says it was hit in international airspace, but Syria insisted it was flying low inside Syrian airspace.

Shells from the Syrian conflict have occasionally rained down on the Turkish side of the border, and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has warned Damascus that his country would not tolerate any violation of the border by Syrian forces.

____

AP correspondent Ryan Lucas contributed from Beirut.

 

[a_majoor]

Adding a bit of irony to the already confused situation:

http://www.jpost.com/Syria-Crisis/Report-Syria-transported-chemical-weapons-to-Iraq-326141

Report: Syria transported chemical weapons to Iraq
By JPOST.COM STAFF
09/15/2013 10:37
 
Lebanese daily says 20 trucks crossed into Iraq last week, bearing equipment and material used for manufacturing chemical weapons.
Bashar Assad gives an interview to Russian TV Photo: Reuters
Syria has moved 20 trucks worth of equipment and material used for the manufacturing of chemical weapons into neighboring Iraq, the Lebanese daily Al-Mustaqbal reported on Sunday.

The government in Baghdad has denied allegations that it is helping the Syrian government conceal chemical stockpiles.

Related:
Syria chemical weapons sites being dispersed to avoid detection, report says
US, Russia reach deal on control of Syria chemical weapons

The report came just a day after the United States and Russia struck a deal stipulating that Syrian President Bashar Assad's regime would destroy its chemical arsenal to avert an American military assault.

The newspaper reported that the trucks crossed the boundary separating Syria with Iraq over the course of Thursday and Friday. Border guards did not inspect the contents of the trucks, which raises suspicions that they contained illicit cargo, according to Al-Mustaqbal.

Al-Mustaqbal, a publication that has long been affiliated with anti-Syrian political elements in Lebanon, quoted a spokesperson for Iraq's interior ministry, Saad Maan, as saying that security forces were deployed along the border and were checking all vehicles coming into the country.

"Iraq today is not Saddam Hussein's Iraq," he said. "It is not an Iraq which resorts to the use of chemical weapons against its own people or against its neighbors."

"These accusations are all rumors and are useless and no one believes them," he said.

Last week, the head of the Free Syrian Army told CNN that opposition intelligence indicated Assad was moving chemical arms out of the country.

"Today, we have information that the regime began to move chemical materials and chemical weapons to Lebanon and to Iraq," General Salim Idriss told CNN.

"We have told our friends that the regime has begun moving a part of its chemical weapons arsenal to Lebanon and Iraq. We told them do not be fooled," Idris told reporters in Istanbul.

"All of this initiative does not interest us. Russia is a partner with the regime in killing the Syrian people. A crime against humanity has been committed and there is not any mention of accountability."

Perhaps a quite predictable response, and if international "inspectors" and "monitors" arrive, there will probably be nothing but empty warehouses and munition bunkers to inspect and monitor.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Adding a bit of irony to the already confused situation:

http://www.jpost.com/Syria-Crisis/Report-Syria-transported-chemical-weapons-to-Iraq-326141

Perhaps a quite predictable response, and if international "inspectors" and "monitors" arrive, there will probably be nothing but empty warehouses and munition bunkers to inspect and monitor.

And not just to Iraq, if this account is to be believed:
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/171964#.UjbnwH-BW2k

President Bashar Al-Assad has smuggled part of his chemical weapons arsenal to Hezbollah in a bid to evade international inspection, the Saudi newspaper Al Watan reported Monday.

The report quoted Syrian National Coalition member Kamal al-Labwani as claiming that: "The Syrian regime has transferred some of its chemical weapons arsenal to its ally Hezbollah aboard trucks used to transport vegetables."

The article published Monday, also included a claim that the Assad regime had covertly moved significant parts of its chemical weapons aboard Russian ships docked along the Syrian coastline.

"We have credible information indicating that the Assad regime has smuggled part of its chemical arsenal to Russian ships in barrels," al-Labwani added ....

Also, this from the summary of the UN's report attached....

.... On the basis of the evidence obtained during the investigation of the Gouta incident, the conclusion of the UN mission is that, on 21 August 2013, chemical weapons have been used in the ongoing conflict between the parties of the Syrian Arab Republic on a relatively large scale.  In particular, the environmental, chemical and medical samples collected by the Mission provide clear and convincing evidence that surface-to-surface rockets containing the nerve agent were used in the Ghouta area of Damascus.

 

[MilEME09]

If Assad did transfer the weapons, as soon as Israel confirms, it will be Syria's worst nightmare

 

[Journeyman]

If Assad did transfer the weapons, as soon as Israel confirms, it will be Syria's worst nightmare

Why?  What will change?  What will likely occur?

 

[MilEME09]

Why?  What will change?  What will likely occur?

Well hasn't Israel already said it won't tolerate such acts, they've launched air strikes before for conventional weapons, military action would undoubtedly be launched against targets in Syria and Lebanon if the transfer of chemical weapons is confirmed.

 

[Journeyman]

......military action would undoubtedly be launched against targets in Syria and Lebanon if the transfer of chemical weapons is confirmed.

That word seldom applies in Middle East politics.

Assuming that Assad has transferred some chemical weapons elsewhere (anywhere), this would likely give him some capability reserve both in and out of the country.  This would allow him, or allow a proxy, to use such weapons.  The Israeli strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities was deemed to be an urgent security matter.  There is no benefit to Israel for striking stockpile remnants within Syria; the circumstances aren't the same.

It's currently within Israel's interest to get other nations to step up and act, diplomatically and militarily, against Syria and Iran.    Unfortunately, I think the US is a very large disappointment just now.

 

[STJ_Kierstead]

Pardon my ignorance but wouldn't bombing a stockpile of chemical weapons do an insane ammount of damage to civilians? Just wondering, not real educated on the weapons or disposal methods, but this seems counter-productive.. Would the U.S stand for such actions - if israel indeed launches an attack?

 

[Rifleman62]

http://jr2020.blogspot.ca/2013/09/obamas-syrian-ops-badge.html

Obama's Syrian Ops Badge
From an American friend:

    "Syrian Operations Badge - Just awarded to Oboy and his administration"

 

[GAP]

Pardon my ignorance but wouldn't bombing a stockpile of chemical weapons do an insane amount of damage to civilians? Just wondering, not real educated on the weapons or disposal methods, but this seems counterproductive.. Would the U.S stand for such actions - if Israel indeed launches an attack?

They probably wouldn't hit Syria stockpiles, but if the rumors of Hezbollah getting some and moving it into Lebanon are true...there's a good likelyhood of Israel hitting a Hezbollah ammo storage site....and if it happens to be there....

 

[Journeyman]

Pardon my ignorance but wouldn't bombing a stockpile of chemical weapons do an insane ammount of damage to civilians? Just wondering, not real educated on the weapons or disposal methods, but this seems counter-productive.. Would the U.S stand for such actions - if israel indeed launches an attack?

a) the Americans, when talking bombing, ruled out attacking the actual stockpiles for just that reason;
b) as noted above, I believe that there's little incentive for the Israelis to actually attack Syria;
c) while cynically, some may argue that the Israelis wouldn't care about chemical fallout from a stockpile attack because it's 'just a Syrian neighbourhood,' the winter winds tend to be from the north/north-west; fallout could mess with Israel too.

Israel attacking Hezbollah is a different matter.  A chemically-armed Hezbollah would likely been seen as a 'clear and present danger' by the Israelis, and all bets are off.



If you want to argue a circle within a circle within a circle......a chemically-armed Hamas!  Despite being Sunni, Iran has supported them before because Israel is a common enemy.  So if Iran/Assad provide chemical weapons to Hamas, knowing that Israel wouldn't hesitate to smack them hard, they don't lose any Shi'a and they can point to Israel as the mad dogs in the region!  :Tin-Foil-Hat:


Yes, I know that a chemically-armed Hamas would just see the weapons back in Syria on the rebel side

 

[tomahawk6]

If Assad can prove he no longer has WMD,he's off the hook IMO.

 

[a_majoor]

If it is deemed actually necessary to destroy the stockpiles or weapons in situ, there is an outside possibility that a bomb or missile with a thermobaric warhead or something similar could be used to incinerate the chemicals.

The downside of this is there is a possibility that a large fraction of the chemicals could be released during the attack and not be incinerated. Of course, larger numbers of special munitions could be programmed for the attack, but this gets into the laws of diminishing returns, as aircraft carrying special bombs have less ordinance for other uses, need more escorts, or more special warheads need to be shipped in theater and mated to missiles, reducing the number of conventional warheads you have ready to be launched, etc.

And of course, if your intelligence is wrong, then you have just spent a lot of money on a really spectacular fireworks show, probably in the middle of a residential neighbourhood or hospital because that is just the way these people think when choosing to store their weapons, secrets or top commanders.

 

[Jarnhamar]

 

[Journeyman]

And of course, if your intelligence is wrong......

If only Canada had some sort of Intelligence Group....or Intelligence Command....that could contribute......  op:

 

[CougarKing]

Not sure what to think about this, considering Brown was SecDef. under Carter...

Defense News

WASHINGTON — The US should consider including Iran in any Syrian peace or chemical weapons negotiations, according to Harold Brown, President Jimmy Carter’s defense secretary.

“Have a negotiating table that includes ... [the US], the Russians, the Iranians, the Saudis, and inevitably you would have to involve both the Syrian government and some of the opposition, but in peripheral ways,” Brown said in a wide-ranging Sept. 16 interview.

Negotiations also would need to include Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Brown said.

“I doubt that that will happen ... because everybody’s interests are very different,” he said.

The US has been threatening a punitive strike against the Syrian government, which Western allies say is responsible for using chemical weapons that killed about 1,500 civilians.

US Secretary of State John Kerry said on Sept. 18 that a United Nations report found Assad used sarin gas in an August attack. Syria has been ravaged by a civil war for more than two years.

A US-led military strike — in response to the alleged chemical attacks — has been on hold while a diplomatic solution is sought.

The US and Russia have ironed out a deal that would allow for international control and eventual destruction of Syria’s chemical weapons stockpiles.

But Brown said he is pessimistic these efforts will be entirely successful and doubts Assad will cooperate.

(...)

 

[Flip]

Few thought that the Syrian regime’s promise to destroy its chemical weapons would be the end of the story. Brigadier-General Zaher al-Saket, a former chemical weapons chief in President Bashar al-Assad’s own army, certainly did not.

Brig Gen Saket says he was ordered three times to use chemical weapons against his own people, but could not. He insists that all such orders had to come from the top — President Assad himself — despite insistent denials by the regime that it has never used chemical weapons. He also claims to have his own intelligence that the Syrian president is evading the terms of a Russian-brokered deal to destroy the chemical weapons by transferring some of the stocks to his allies; Hezbollah, in Lebanon, and Iran.




http://news.nationalpost.com/2013/09/22/assad-has-ordered-the-use-of-chemical-weapons-34-times-transfered-stock-to-hezbollah-syrian-defector-says/

 

[Edward Campbell]

Only loosely related, but a reminder that good ideas are always out there in this article and video.

 

[CougarKing]

RT link

Saudi black op team behind
Damascus chem weapons
attack – diplomatic sources

The August chemical weapons
attack in the Syrian capital’s
suburbs was done by a Saudi
Arabian black operations team,
Russian diplomatic sources
have told a Russian news
agency.

“Based on data from a
number of sources a picture
can be pieced together. The criminal
provocation in Eastern Ghouta was done by a
black op team that the Saudi’s sent through
Jordan and which acted with support of the
Liwa Al-Islam group,” a source in the
diplomatic circles told Interfax.

<snipped>

 

[CougarKing]

Destruction of Syria's chemical weapons begins

The operation, performed by Syrian personnel under the supervision of international disarmament experts, took place under the terms of a UN Security Council resolution that will see Damascus relinquish the banned arms.

Workers "used cutting torches and angle grinders to destroy or disable a range of items", said a statement released by the United Nations and the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW).

The Syrian workers were destroying or disabling a "range of items", including "missile warheads, aerial bombs and mixing and filling equipment", the statement added.

The team faces the daunting task of disposing of an estimated 1,000 tonnes of the nerve agent sarin, mustard gas and other banned arms at dozens of sites in Syria by mid-2014.

source: Yahoo! News