Syria Superthread [merged]

[Colin Parkinson]

I suspect someone in the Syrian Air Defense is about to be retired early and won't be needing any benefits. Darth Putin will need to be appeased.

 

[Journeyman]

According to a regular Russian Twitter poster, "Military Advisor," the Israeli F-16s used the 'Coot' and the French Navy FREMM-class frigate to conceal their approach, before dropping a series of GBU-39 bombs on the targets.


I've found him to be somewhat biased but generally reliable for facts.  :2c:

 

[Retired AF Guy]

According to Russian MoD reports there were 15 crew members on board vice the 14 reported in earlier statements. 

Here are two separate reports that I found that went into more detail about what may have had occurred.

The first report is from The Aviationist.  

According to the IDF spokesperson, the F-16s were already in Israeli airspace when the Il-20 was shot down, anyway, “Israel will share all the relevant information with the Russian Government to review the incident and to confirm the facts in this inquiry.”

    4. The Syrian anti-air batteries fired indiscriminately and from what we understand, did not bother to ensure that no Russian planes were in the air.

    — Israel Defense Forces (@IDFSpokesperson) September 18, 2018

The second report is from The Drive. Their is assessment is as follows:

The idea that Israel used the IL-20 for cover is questionable at best. Just look at the chart above, the timing of such an operation without coordination with the Il-20's crew would have to of been uncanny. What likely happened is that Israel executed its standoff strike from a launch position over the Mediterranean and the Il-20 happened to stumble into the area.

Also, according to the TheDrive the Russian Mod is also stating that the IAF was GBU-39 SDBs.

Both sites state that the Coot-A was hit by a S-200/SA-5 Gammon missile. The SA is an older Russian system first introduced in the mid-60's and would know be considered obsolete.

The chart the TheDrive refers to is shown below. Note that with Russian symbology Russian forces are in red and NATO/IAF in blue.

My only comment is that the COOT-A should have been broadcasting some kind of IFF signal and the Syrians should have been able to track it.

 

[Cloud Cover]

The Syrian forces currently are using the Vega (S200VE) variant of the missile, which can flash from cold to off the rails in 10-12 seconds if in working order. With all of its rather large radar fingerprint, the battery itself would have (or should have) had a good enough radar view in 2D. 
Assume that the IL20 just popped up suddenly (it was out over the east conducting EOB flight for the previous 3 hours,  its location before that was south/southwest), there would have been sufficient information available to the battery commander that this specific aircraft was not an Israeli formation at the time preceding the shoot down.  As mentioned above, the IAF F16's had already left the scene by the time the S200 missiles were fired and we have to assume that the Syrian battery had sufficient information to make a decision about engaging aircraft that already left the battlespace.  Why they engaged is another story, I guess.

There was an RAF Rivet Joint in the air crossing over northern Israel at the time this happened, they will have a fairly detailed ELINT synopsis of the event that most people in the world will never see.  Every Coalition ship with a decent EW suite sailing in the eastern Med is grabbing signals as well. The Rivet Joint would have, at a minimum, recorded the Square Pair fire control radar and the S Band radar (Back Trap IIRC), whatever they are using these days for VHF (i forget) and probably  an E band radar ++ all of the un-wired comms between between stations.  Lots of EW intel will be available for analysis, not much of which will see the light of day.

correction "east"

 

[daftandbarmy]

My takeaway from this was - 'if you think that our Aurora crews aren't in danger during their sojourns in the ME, you would be wrong.'

 

[Cloud Cover]

If an Aurora tried to land at a Russian airbase in Syria ....

 

[Eye In The Sky]

My takeaway from this was - 'if you think that our Aurora crews aren't in danger during their sojourns in the ME, you would be wrong.'

There were very well-defined "go/no go" areas, shall we say...and pretty good Int before you went wheels-in-the-wheel, and during your VUL time.  ESM also is a great "situational awareness" tool.

The real danger was the unknown stuff;  MANPADs, 57mm.  They only had to get lucky once...

 

[Eye In The Sky]

The Syrian forces currently are using the Vega (S200VE) variant of the missile, which can flash from cold to off the rails in 10-12 seconds if in working order. With all of its rather large radar fingerprint, the battery itself would have (or should have) had a good enough radar view in 2D. 
Assume that the IL20 just popped up suddenly (it was out over the east conducting EOB flight for the previous 3 hours,  its location before that was south/southwest), there would have been sufficient information available to the battery commander that this specific aircraft was not an Israeli formation at the time preceding the shoot down.  As mentioned above, the IAF F16's had already left the scene by the time the S200 missiles were fired and we have to assume that the Syrian battery had sufficient information to make a decision about engaging aircraft that already left the battlespace.  Why they engaged is another story, I guess.

There was an RAF Rivet Joint in the air crossing over northern Israel at the time this happened, they will have a fairly detailed ELINT synopsis of the event that most people in the world will never see.  Every Coalition ship with a decent EW suite sailing in the eastern Med is grabbing signals as well. The Rivet Joint would have, at a minimum, recorded the Square Pair fire control radar and the S Band radar (Back Trap IIRC), whatever they are using these days for VHF (i forget) and probably  an E band radar ++ all of the un-wired comms between between stations.  Lots of EW intel will be available for analysis, not much of which will see the light of day.

correction "east"

The amount of time they've been flying/operating in the area, I'd assume deconfliction/etc would have been worked out longgggggggggggggg ago.  I can see a mis-ID if the COOT suffered some kind of major emergency, and they were EMCON silent in all aspects because shit was all on fire or something.  I don't know how they operate, but will assume it is somewhat similar to how we do business.  If they're (Russian crews) used to seeing the same target/kill RADARs, well...they might not react the same way we would.  Might have been "ops normal" for them.  All spec, of course...in the image posted above, they were "inbound" though.  HI/HA looking to the RADAR controllers?

 

[Cloud Cover]

I don't know? The inbound path was from the sea. With the complete Vega configuration (if they have the upgraded kit) at  longer range the grazing angle of that battery site (I'm looking at a contour map) would be smaller so the reflections are stronger and the target echo of airborne objects should be far above free space values. More definition. It could be the Coot was off course or still making tactical maneuvers because the F16's were behind it for a time. That could neuter the deconfliction, but it would not account for many other factors.  I have to say my experience here is with ELINT finger printing of ground based systems, and not much else. The behavior of the components of the  battery as a system I understand, the flying tactics not at all.  We should not discount the possibility that comms channels may  have been subject to jamming etc.

 

[211RadOp]

U.S. soldiers among the dead in northern Syria suicide bombing

Explosion in Manjib comes after Trump announces withdrawal from Syria

Thomson Reuters · Posted: Jan 16, 2019 8:42 AM ET | Last Updated: an hour ago

A blast struck near U.S.-led coalition forces on Wednesday in Syria's northern city of Manbij, and a war monitor said 16 people had been killed.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitoring group first reported the explosion, with the U.S-led coalition confirming that U.S. forces were killed.

"U.S. service members were killed during an explosion while conducting a routine patrol in Syria today. We are still gathering information and will share additional details at a later time," it said.

A U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters four U.S. soldiers were killed.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/syria-manjib-explosion-1.4980050

 

[tomahawk6]

The death toll will rise but until all  the next of kin notificatins are concluded,I doubt that a more conclusive number will be released. One thing is certain,ISIS is not defeated and this attack will probably scrap any withdrawal until later in the year is my best guess.

 

[tomahawk6]

DoD has released the names of 3 of the fallen.

https://dod.defense.gov/News/N...-resolve-casualties/

 

[tomahawk6]

Stars and Stripes has a bit more about these fallen patriots. Some very impressive folks.

https://www.stripes.com/news/middle-east/green-beret-navy-linguist-seal-turned-dia-civilian-among-americans-killed-in-isis-claimed-bombing-in-syria-1.565006

 

[tomahawk6]

Captain Turnbull was seriously injured during the bombing and is in very critical condition in Landstuhl.

https://www.stripes.com/news/american-soldier-wounded-in-manbij-attack-fighting-for-his-life-1.565512

Capt. Jonathan Turnbull of Gaylord, Mich., is pictured here as a first lieutenant deployed with Apache Troop, 3rd Squadron, 7th United States Cavalry to Combat Outpost Shir Khan, Afghanistan, in a screenshot of a December 2012 holiday greetings video. Turnbull was badly wounded in a bombing in Manbij, Syria, on Wednesday, Jan. 16, and was said to be in serious condition at Landstuhl Regional Medical Center in Germany on Monday, Jan. 22, 2019.
COURTESY OF U.S. ARMY

 

[Good2Golf]

Thoughts and prayers to family and friends of those killed, and to a full and timely recovery by CPT Turnbull.

Regards
G2G

 

[Colin Parkinson]

A lot is going on, the SAA offensive west of Aleppo has stalled and counterattack heavily supported by Turkish Armed UAV have cost the Syrians roughly:

- 30 MBTs
- 20 SPGs
- 15 BMPs
- 7 BM-21s

The SAA however have been rolling up the Southern portion of the Rebel territory. Turkey suffered some 33 dead and similar wounded in airstrikes, Turkey have declared that all military targets in the Idlib province are legitimate targets and subject to attack. Some Turkish sources apparently claim Turkey will make a formal declaration of war against Syria. However this article says otherwise.
https://anna-news.info/turtsiya-predlozhila-ustanovit-peremirie-v-sirijskom-idlibe/


The SAA had cleared the M5 Highway to Aleppo, but it's been cut again as the Turkish back rebels recaptured Saraqib.

Meanwhile up North the Syrian Arab Army and YPG and getting bombarded by Turkish artillery.

Some graphic footage here of strikes against Syrian Armour https://www.pscp.tv/w/1djGXQmQzwzJZ?fbclid=IwAR2hegIX0_Y8PN97HcIov0mzBi3eGeGC6EhM6AxpqOPGZ8x4go89b8PR4RI

It remains to be seen what Russia and Turkey will do. Currently the majority of Russian supplies to syria are shipped through the Straits and that could be cut at any time.

 

 

[CBH99]

Turkey has military forces deployed in Syria, against the wishes of the Syrian government, and is actively engaging Syrian government troops.

Regardless of our opinion of the Syrian dictator and his government - Turkey is in the wrong here.  They want their casualties to stop?  Get out of Syria.

Should have allowed the deconfliction zone to stand.  From my understanding, the Kurds were moving & there would have been a nice little barrier between the Turkish border and the Kurds. 



Invading Syria & engaging Syrian government forces isn't helping anything...but maybe that's the point?

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Ottoman 2.0 is a must, old Turkish saying: "Better to kick an Arab than a dog". I am assuming that grabbing a bit of the old Empire is invigorating to some, and perhaps they are looking for future allies to fight the Kurds?

 

[Colin Parkinson]

A more up to date and detailed list

Tanks (29, of which destroyed: 16)
6 T-55A: (1, captured) (2, destroyed) (3, destroyed) (4, destroyed) (5, destroyed) (6, destroyed)
2 T-55M: (1, captured) (2, captured)
4 T-62 Obr. 1972: (1, captured) (2, damaged) (3, destroyed) (4, destroyed)
2 T-62M: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed)
5 T-72M1: (1, captured) (2, captured) (3, captured) (4, captured) (5, captured)
1 T-72M1 'Shafrah': (1, captured)
1 T-72AV: (1, captured)
2 Unknown T-72: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed)
6 Unknown T-55/62 (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (3, destroyed) (4, destroyed) (5, destroyed) (6, destroyed)

Infantry fighting vehicles (14, of which destroyed: 4)
14 BMP-1: (1, captured) (2, captured) (3, captured) (4, captured) (5, captured) (6, captured) (7, captured) (8, captured) (9, captured) (10, captured) (11, destroyed) (12, destroyed) (13, destroyed) (14, destroyed)

Self-propelled artillery (17, of which destroyed: 17)
11 122mm 2S1 Gvozdika (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (3, destroyed) (4, destroyed) (5, destroyed) (6, destroyed) (7, destroyed) (8, destroyed) (9, destroyed) (10, destroyed) (11, destroyed)
6 152mm 2S3 Akatsiya: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (3, destroyed) (4, destroyed) (5, destroyed) (6, destroyed)

Multiple rocket launchers (9, of which destroyed: 9)
8 122mm BM-21: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (3, destroyed) (4, destroyed) (5, destroyed) (6, destroyed) (7, destroyed) (8, destroyed)
1 122mm MRL on Toyota: (1, destroyed)

Mortars (1, of which destroyed: 1)
1 240mm M240: (1, destroyed)

(Self-propelled) anti-aircraft guns (3, of which destroyed: 1)
2 23mm ZSU-23: (1, damaged) (2, destroyed)
1 23mm ZU-23: (1, captured)

Surface-to-air missile systems (1, of which destroyed: 1)
1 Pantsir-S1: (1)
1 Buk-M2 (1, reported to have been destroyed at Kweres or Abu ad-Duhor)

Helicopters (5, of which destroyed: 5)
5 Helicopters of unknown type: (1, 2, 3, reported to have been destroyed at Kweres and Abu ad-Duhor, 4 and 5 shot down by MANPADS on the 11th and 14th of Feburary respectively)

Trucks and engineering equipment (14, of which destroyed: 7)
1 GAZ-66: (1, destroyed)
3 GAZ-3308: (1, captured) (2, captured) (3, captured)
1 Ammunition truck: (1, destroyed)
3 Truck carrying equipment: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (3, destroyed)
2 Excevators: (1 and 2, captured)
2 Motor bikes: (1 and 2, captured)
2 Unknown truck: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed)

Anti-tank guided missiles (23, 5 launchers and optics)
3 9M111 Fagot: (1, 2, and 3)
9 9M113 Konkurs: (1, 2, 3, 4, 6 and 6) (7, 8 and 9) 
1 9P135 launcher for the 9M113 Konkurs ATGM: (1)
1 1PN79-2 Thermal optic for the Konkurs-M ATGM launcher: (1)
10 9M131 Metis: (1, 2, 3 and 4) (5, 6, 7, 8, 9 and 10) 
2 9P151 launcher for the 9M131 Metis ATGM: (1) (2)
1 1PN86-VI Thermal optic for Metis-M ATGM launcher: (1)
1 9M14 Malyutka: (1)

source; https://spioenkop.blogspot.com/2020/02/the-idlib-turkey-shoot-destruction-and.html?fbclid=IwAR1cqyiG_NkuWBrlKF64piNngK_vzBLmPOuX3h0_9nkc-N5rzgiZDbfg9_s

Also if you have a good AD system you might want to learn how to use it....
https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1233474077374976000?s=20

 

[FJAG]

Interesting article from Der Spiegel about matters within the Syrian hierarchy.

The Assads Versus the Makhloufs

A Bitter Feud over Power and Money Erupts in Syria

For the last several months, a heated conflict has been escalating between the most powerful families in Syria. It has been trying Russia's patience and could decide who will ultimately wield control.
By Christoph Reuter

The hashish was packed in milk cartons, a total of four tons of the stuff, carefully packed in 19,000 individual Tetra Paks. Customs officials discovered the cargo in mid-April on a ship in the Egyptian port of Said. It had come from Syria, and it was presumably bound for Libya, another country torn apart by civil war.

It's not the first time that drugs produced in Syria have been discovered in one of the region's ports. Indeed, such cases are no longer out of the ordinary. In Dubai, investigators have confiscated several payloads of amphetamine pills, most recently in January. And in Saudi Arabia, customs officials in late April found 45 million Captagon pills, likely produced by laboratories in Syria. Most of the tablets were hidden in packages intended for mate tea from a company with connections to the family of Syrian dictator Bashar Assad.

The ships all put to sea from Latakia, the Syrian city on the Mediterranean whose port Iran leased last fall. The drug discoveries show just how desperate Assad's regime and his allies in Tehran have grown when it comes to finding new revenue streams. The country, after all, is essentially broke. According to the United Nations, 80 percent of Syrians are living in poverty, and it is estimated that gross domestic product has fallen to just a quarter of its prewar level. The currency continues to collapse and prices are rising, while wages have remained largely stagnant. Iran is unable to help and Russia is no longer willing.

A Family Feud

The drug trade is one of the few remaining routes to obtaining hard currency. Already in 2013, Hezbollah - Iran's proxy in Lebanon – conquered the Syrian city of Qusayr and its surroundings and declared the region a restricted zone. The militia established dozens of small production sites for amphetamines known as Captagon. At the same time, the group forced farmers to cultivate cannabis. According to several sources, Maher Assad, Bashar's younger brother and commander of the 4th Division of the Syrian army, took on the task of protecting Qusayr and the transportation routes to the port of Latakia on the Mediterranean. Maher Assad's division is one of just two halfway battle-ready units left in the badly deteriorated Syrian army. And it belongs to that faction of the Syrian army that is largely controlled by Iran.

...

See rest of article here: https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/the-assads-against-the-makhloufs-a-bitter-feud-over-power-and-money-erupts-in-syria-a-eb2b062a-c0c1-4b88-9966-244a15b49f4b

:cheers: