Syria Superthread [merged]

[Jarnhamar]

Meh!  It's only against vermin.  They deserve every one.

Have to agree with you.  They're a threat to humanity and should be treated as such.

 

[jollyjacktar]

Turkey has gone across the border.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3755835/Turkey-cross-border-operation-free-IS-held-Syrian-town.html

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/turkey-cross-border-operation-syria-1.3733464

 

[Journeyman]

Meh!  It's only against vermin.  They deserve every one.

Actually, the Russian and Syrian airstrikes and arty are targeting overwhelmingly the anti-Assad rebels -- the ones the West is training and arming -- not ISIS;  they're the "good guys" (this week, anyway).

 

[The Bread Guy]

Actually, the Russian and Syrian airstrikes and arty are targeting overwhelmingly the anti-Assad rebels -- the ones the West is training and arming -- not ISIS;  they're the "good guys" (this week, anyway).

There you go being all nuanced again ...  ;D

 

[Lightguns]

Actually, the Russian and Syrian airstrikes and arty are targeting overwhelmingly the anti-Assad rebels -- the ones the West is training and arming -- not ISIS;  they're the "good guys" (this week, anyway).

Lol, agree, there are no good guys in a civil war.  I am enjoying watching Russia expend it's political capital for such tiny return.  Like America in Vietnam, when this is all over and regardless of who wins, they are going to lose some strategic bases in the Med, they just don't realize it yet.   

 

[Lumber]

Have to agree with you.  They're a threat to humanity and should be treated as such.

I read a news story about a Syrian immigrants to Canada (came here long before the civil war). They pointed out how the vast majority of civilian casualties are being caused by the Assad Regime, not ISIS....

 

[Altair]

I read a news story about a Syrian immigrants to Canada (came here long before the civil war). They pointed out how the vast majority of civilian casualties are being caused by the Assad Regime, not ISIS....

True, but nations are not intervening in Syria out of R2P. They are there because ISIL was slaughtering westerners and making a production out of it.

Assad has powerful backers and as such can do whatever he wants because it's not worth the cost to take him out. Also, you harm Assad you help terror groups like AQ and ISIL.

There is no good I  any action you take in Syria only different levels of shitty

 

[The Bread Guy]

A bit of explanation of the lead-up to Turkey's push into Syria, via Reuters:

... A Turkish official said the ground incursion had been in the works for more than two years but had been delayed by U.S. reservations, resistance from some Turkish commanders, and a stand-off with Russia which had made air cover impossible.

Turkey had made the case more strongly to Washington over the past few months, had patched up relations with Russia, and had removed some of the Turkish commanders from their posts after finding they were involved in the coup attempt, paving the way for the operation to go ahead, the official said ...

 

[CougarKing]

Turkish armor pushing deeper into Syria:

Reuters

Mon Aug 29, 2016 8:50am EDT
Turkish forces deepen push into Syria, draw U.S. rebuke over targets
Turkey's militant pursuit will be unrelenting: Erdogan
01:37

By Lisa Barrington and Umit Bektas | BEIRUT/KARKAMIS, Turkey

Turkish-backed forces pushed deeper into northern Syria on Monday and drew a rebuke from NATO ally the United States, which said it was concerned the battle for territory had shifted away from targeting Islamic State.

At the start of Turkey's now almost week-long cross-border offensive, Turkish tanks, artillery and warplanes provided Syrian rebel allies the firepower to capture swiftly the Syrian frontier town of Jarablus from Islamic State militants.

Since then, Turkish forces have mainly pushed into areas controlled by forces aligned to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a coalition that encompasses the Kurdish YPG militia and which has been backed by Washington to fight the jihadists.
(...SNIPPED)

 

[Lightguns]

Turkish armor pushing deeper into Syria:

Reuters

I would submit that the next ME domino to fall will be Turkey.  Whatever would caused them to believe they can win this unwinnable war is beyond me, if they are just building a buffer zone then they can expect a lot more snapping at them than they had before, if they are trying to deal a death blow to the Kurds.......  Stuck in Syria, snapped at by Kurds and ISIL, they will become part of the ME Forever War and effectively a Russian Vassal with a seat at NATO.  I think this is going to spill into open war in the Caucasus and later middle Asia.  Going to be an interesting 3 next decades. 

 

[Journeyman]

I just wish someone...anyone...  would decisively liberate Aleppo and get trade back on track;  my stash of Aleppo spice (a pepper) ran out over six months ago, and I haven't been able to find a replacement! 

War IS hell!

 

[The Bread Guy]

I just wish someone...anyone...  would decisively liberate Aleppo and get trade back on track;  my stash of Aleppo spice (a pepper) ran out over six months ago, and I haven't been able to find a replacement! 

War IS hell!

Nobody EVER considers these knock-on effects - the horror, the horror 

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

The Spice must flow ... he who controls the Spice ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JlV7Gh1sbVs

That one is just for you, Journeyman.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

True, but nations are not intervening in Syria out of R2P. They are there because ISIL was slaughtering westerners and making a production out of it.

Assad has powerful backers and as such can do whatever he wants because it's not worth the cost to take him out. Also, you harm Assad you help terror groups like AQ and ISIL.

There is no good I  any action you take in Syria only different levels of shitty

If the regime fell you could easily expect a huge massacre of Alwaites and other non-Sunni minorities that sided with them. I don't expect that the regime can regain and hold all of the former Syria. They barely have the manpower to hold onto their current gains.

 

[Lumber]

Syrian Regime "allied" with Russians against Syrian Rebels and Daesh
Syrian Rebels "allied" with Western Nations against Syrian Regime and Daesh
Syrian Rebels "allied" with Syrian/Turkish Kurds against Syrian Regime and Daesh
Turkey "allied" with Western Nations against Daesh, but not against Syrian/Turkish Kurds
Turkey violating Syrian Sovereignty, but not outwardly against he Syrian Regime
Western Nations allied with Iraqi Kurds against Daesh
Western Nations allied with Iraqi Govt against Daesh
Iraqi Govt not wholly happy about Western Support of Iraqi Kurds

F***! Someone needs to make a graph.

 

[Edward Campbell]

...

F***! Someone needs to make a graph.

Here are a couple I have used before:

and

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

And here is a historical (and hysterical) summary from Uderzo, the writer of the Asterix collection of books, in "Asterix and the black Gold":

 

[The Bread Guy]

Islamic State spokesman and head of external operations Abu Muhammad al-Adnani, one of the jihadist group's longest-serving and most prominent leaders, has been killed in Aleppo province in Syria, it said on Tuesday.

Adnani had been one of the last remaining members alive of the group that founded Islamic State, also known as Islamic State in Iraq and Syria and by its Arabic acronym Daesh, along with the group's self-appointed caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

As Islamic State's spokesman, he was its most visible member. As head of external operations, he was in charge of attacks overseas, an increasingly important tactic for the group as its core Iraqi and Syrian territory has been eroded by military losses ...

(source)

 

[The Bread Guy]

So, who nailed ISIL's #2?

• "Key Islamic State leader killed in apparent U.S. strike in Syria"
• "IS leader Adnani: Russia says its air strike killed him"

Let's see who's more eager to get the credit ...

and

And even these charts don't capture every nuance.  Even though the second chart says the Kurds are Iraq's enemies, Iraq also seems to be talking to & getting along just fine with at least some Kurds.

 

[tomahawk6]

US commanders are not happy about what they term mission creep in Syria.Beyond ISIL the added target would be the al Nusra Front.This is a sop to the Russians.

http://www.militarytimes.com/articles/us-military-commanders-are-pissed-off-about-the-mission-creep-in-syria?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Defense%20EBB%2009-19-16&utm_term=Editorial%20-%20Early%20Bird%20Brief