Tell Me How This Ends

[Redeye]

Yes we must never forget that Israel is the greatest evil in the ME  :

Greatest? No. There are far worse. But I can't stand the toadying to Israel. They like to bluster - or rather, let's not generalize, because Israelis have political opinions as diverse as any country - their right likes to bluster as though Palestinians are solely responsible for the failure to reach lasting peace when the way that Israel treats the Occupied Territories is disgusting.

Most evil? Especially evil? Not even that. But I'd want no part in any conflict started over them. Or Iran, for that matter.

 

[Brad Sallows]

>But, they arent exactly the most benign country in the region by any stretch.

An interesting point from which to launch inquiry.  Of Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Israel, and Egypt, which is the most benign?

 

[Brad Sallows]

>They had long since gotten rid of them by 2003

Since the discussion includes chemical weapons, that statement is untrue.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

I can think of a lot of mistakes the Israelis have done, however I am also aware that their country is a mere afternoon drive for us Canadians and is as wide as some Canadians commute everyday. They have a lot of people who are out to do them in for the crime of existing and are the product of a serious attempt to eradicate them completely. Hell look what has happened to all of the various Jewish communities in the North Africa, ME, many that predated Islam and Christianity and you wonder why they aren't perfect? Sheesh they got people sworn to kill them and absolutely no room for mistakes, I'm surprised the whole country is not a basket case. Despite the above you have Israelis taking the government to court about treatment of Palestinians and even restraining the routing of the walls to minimize impacts on Palestinians.
Anytime the Israelis have lightened up some twit tries to smuggle a bomb through, that sort of thing has destroyed any chance of combined Israeli-Palestinian businesses which people have tried numerous times.

When I'm in Malaysia I get asked to "help" the Palestinians because they are "Our Muslim brothers" Funny that same brotherly love does not extend to the Indonesians both in-country and next door. Also they don't seem to give a shit about their brothers the Kurds, because they are oppressed by other fellow Muslims. Sorry but I am bit annoyed at the double standard directed to the "crimes of Israel" while giving a free pass to rest of the ME and Africa.

 

[Infanteer]

Israel ain't perfect, but as long as other states are saying "we need to wipe them off the map", then Israel gets the benefit of the doubt in my books.

 

[Redeye]

>They had long since gotten rid of them by 2003

Since the discussion includes chemical weapons, that statement is untrue.

How so, since as I recall none were found? Except for a few crates of mortar round found in the marshes that had been there since the Iran-Iraq War...

 

[Redeye]

>But, they arent exactly the most benign country in the region by any stretch.

An interesting point from which to launch inquiry.  Of Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Israel, and Egypt, which is the most benign?

Too easy. Jordan. Though the massive number of Palestinian refugees that have been there since the Naqba do have potential to cause problems there.

 

[skyhigh10]

Israel ain't perfect, but as long as other states are saying "we need to wipe them off the map", then Israel gets the benefit of the doubt in my books.

Using your logic, shouldn't the Jewish population of 10,000+  residing in Iran have been long destroyed by now? Funny how that's not the case. Iran really isn't that naive to start a war with the worlds largest military superpower.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Iran really isn't that naive to start a war with the worlds largest military superpower.

Iran's leadership is the paragon of sanity.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Using your logic, shouldn't the Jewish population of 10,000+  residing in Iran have been long destroyed by now? Funny how that's not the case. Iran really isn't that naive to start a war with the worlds largest military superpower.

Closer to 9,000, used to be closer to 100,000. Let’s just say the remaining Jews are careful not to rock the boat. As for the Iranian government, they have conducted a proxy war against the US and west for quite sometime. They feel that the US is not going to invade them anytime soon and aree hell bent on getting a nuclear umbella which will remove the threat of invasion for good. At which point they intend to flex their muscle as the big guy in the region.

 

[kevincanada]

"Saying wipe them off the map."  Have a read through Hamas charter.  It is full of Jew killing.

 

[skyhigh10]

Closer to 9,000, used to be closer to 100,000. Let’s just say the remaining Jews are careful not to rock the boat. As for the Iranian government, they have conducted a proxy war against the US and west for quite sometime. They feel that the US is not going to invade them anytime soon and aree hell bent on getting a nuclear umbella which will remove the threat of invasion for good. At which point they intend to flex their muscle as the big guy in the region.

Wouldn't you do the same if you were Iran? I am not endorsing their behaviour, but it's understandable.  The United States doesn't bother any other nation with a nuclear weapon. Let's say the entire political system in Iran changes, do you really think Israel would be told what to do by Muslim nation? There is plenty of blame to go around. When I see a PM at the UN calling for the escalation of conflict in the Middle East irregardless of the financial ruin we're in , I shake my head. Some serious discussions need to take place, and politics sadly is putting quite the stop tothat.

As for the decrease in Jews in Iran, understandable. The bottom line is Synagogues still operate, and Jews still reside there.

 

[cupper]

And Iraq had weapons of mass destruction ...

>They had long since gotten rid of them by 2003

Since the discussion includes chemical weapons, that statement is untrue.

How so, since as I recall none were found? Except for a few crates of mortar round found in the marshes that had been there since the Iran-Iraq War...

UNMOVIC had found no evidence that there was any WMD program in place after 1991, but was unable to sign off as they couldn't fully verify Iraqi claims, and would need several more months in order top do so. This did not fit into the Bush Administration's timeline to proceed with military action, so they were never given the opportunity to finalize the investigation.

The Iraq Survey Group determined that what UNMOVIC had found during it's time of operation was essentially complete, they also found small stocks of materials which were covered in previous accounts as being present prior to 1991. They did determine however that the Iraqi Government (Saddam Hussein) did intend to restart the various programs in the future when the UN sanctions were lifted.

It was Hussein's posturing to keep the various ME players off balance as to his real situation, combined with various lower level officials feeding Hussein the information he wanted to hear rather than the truth that made it difficult to separate fact from fiction. Add the agendas of the various opposition factions pushing for invasion, and you have the quagmire that what we now call Operation Iraqi Freedom.

 

[cupper]

A "headshot" to decapitate the leadership and eliminate Iran as an organized State and potential hegemonic power is one of these options, the risk managment is to make sure whatever regime(s) replaces the theocracy is not able to continue the nuclear program.

Your basic "Kobayashi Maru" solution? ;D

 

[cupper]

Iran really isn't that naive to start a war with the worlds largest military superpower.

I would think that a war with the US would more likely start due to the law of unintended consequences rather than naivety.

A terrorist incident against the US that could be directly linked to the Iranian government for instance. Retaliatory strikes lead to a spiraling increase to the point where the Third Gulf War goes full throttle.

http://forums.army.ca/forums/threads/108015/post-1182909.html#msg1182909

 

[skyhigh10]

I would think that a war with the US would more likely start due to the law of unintended consequences rather than naivety.

A terrorist incident against the US that could be directly linked to the Iranian government for instance. Retaliatory strikes lead to a spiraling increase to the point where the Third Gulf War goes full throttle.

http://forums.army.ca/forums/threads/108015/post-1182909.html#msg1182909

A third Gulf War with Iran would turn into a World War. I do not think people truly understand the repercussions when it comes to a war with Iran. If a WMD is used against any NATO ally , we will have the world on our side. The retaliation effort would make said targets inhabitable for thousands of years. This is why I am not worried. Iran is not that diluted.

 

[cupper]

A third Gulf War with Iran would turn into a World War. I do not think people truly understand the repercussions when it comes to a war with Iran. If a WMD is used against any NATO ally , we will have the world on our side. The retaliation effort would make said targets inhabitable for thousands of years. This is why I am not worried. Iran is not that diluted deluded.

And what do you base all of this on? Iran's track record on supporting human rights, fighting terrorism and promoting peace and security in the middle east? :sarcasm:

You should be worried. Delusion does not enter into the picture (except if you believe that there is no way we could stumble into another Gulf Conflict). Cultural differences play a big part in this, and it is easy for one side to misinterpret the actions or motives of the other, and escalate the tensions.

I suggest you go back and read the article I posted previously that discussed the wargaming of a potential reaction to an Iranian sponsored terrorist attack and the potential for leading to an all out military conflict in the Gulf. 

 

[CBH99]

When it comes to Irans behaviour towards the west, is it really any surprize that they feel paranoid, angry, and potently skepticle of anything/everything we do towards them??

Lets just look at a FEW of the incidents that have occurred in the past 20 years, and it might help explain why Iran isnt exactly rushing to appease us or our wishes.

-  In 1988, US warship shoots down an Iranian civilian airliner, in Iranian airspace.  All 300 people onboard were killed. 

-  In 1953, the US and UK orchestrate a coup.  Known as Operation Boot in the UK and Operation TPAJAX in the US - the democratically elected government was overthrown, and the country went from a constitutional monarchy to an authoritarian regime.  (Yes, the authoritarian regime was put in place BY THE WEST).  This, while somewhat complicated, basically started when Iran nationalized its oil program in 1951 & put Britains asset security in jeopardy.

-  In 1991, the west had cruise missiles flying over Iranian airspace to hit targets in western Iraq.  (Deep down I am sure they wouldnt have minded, but this was done without their permission and in most cases without their knowledge.)

-  Recently, within the last few years, economic sanctions.  Again, its mostly the general population that suffers from what it perceives as yet another unjustified series of acts intended to harm them from a foreign power they have done nothing to offend or aggress against.  (I distinctly remember having dinner in a family home, and the general feeling was...what have we ever done to the US to have them treat us like this over the past 50 years?)   

The politics of it dont always resonate with the average person just trying to run their barber shop or donaire shop.

In the end, I think we in the west have very short memories.  They dont.  Nobody over here could really care less that the US accidentally shot down an airliner full of people 24yrs ago.  But the people in Iran - having a civilian airliner shot down in their own airspace by a country they werent even at war with - they dont forget as quickly or as easily as we do.  And thats just one example.

 

[Brad Sallows]

>Too easy. Jordan.

Not that easy.  Black September.  When pushed, the Jordanians have behaved as badly as anyone in that region.  The fact that they don't get pushed as much as the Israelis doesn't make them more benign than Israel.

 

[Brad Sallows]

>Except for a few crates of mortar round found in the marshes

Continuing trivialization and obfuscation of simple facts doesn't make a person more credible.  Here are three useful facts:
1) Munitions existed (more than "a few crates of mortar rounds"); that implies they were either wanted or someone lost track of them.  Either is problematic - "unaccounted", and hence more liable to theft and misuse, is more worrisome with respect to risk assessment.
2) Chemical agents existed, for which no plausible excuse was supported (eg. "fertilizer components").
3) Balance of opinion indicates Hussein would have been happy to resume programs after the pressure was off.
4) Politically, some nations were trying to take the pressure off.
5) There were more casus belli cited in the war resolution than WMDs.

Capabilities and intentions existed.