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The 2008 Canadian Election- Merged Thread

Rifleman62 said:
If the seat predictions are correct, the Liberals and Greens will for sure get together, with May as Minister for the Environment. Then add the NDP to form the government. Reason: Dion "wins" the election, holds on to the leader position; Liberals again become natural governing party; Jack wants power, any kind of power, just power and he will become deputy PM. Since there has never been a microphone that Jack does not love, Jack will eloquently drive the Liberals/Dion crazy with his pronouncements of how he is 9er Actual, de facto, running the government. May will be happy as she hates. hates Harper. (Also more money for a single mother with her Minister's pay check). Harper will resign. The media can get back to being spoon fed.

For May to be a federal minister, wouldn't she have to be an MP? For May to be an MP, wouldn't she have to beat Peter McKay? I am certain Peter McKay will keep his job. My personal prediction is that the Green party will get the highest percentage of votes it ever has, but that will not translate into many seats. For the Greens I predict less than 5 seats, probably just 1.
 
GDawg said:
For May to be a federal minister, wouldn't she have to be an MP? For May to be an MP, wouldn't she have to beat Peter McKay? I am certain Peter McKay will keep his job. My personal prediction is that the Green party will get the highest percentage of votes it ever has, but that will not translate into many seats. For the Greens I predict less than 5 seats, probably just 1.

1)  Well it would be completely unheard of for a government to have a minister who wasn't elected... I mean would a government dare do such a shocking thing?

2) The Liberal candidate isn't running in her riding,  she's in a dead heat,  statistically she could do it.

3) 5 seats would be absurd,  1 or two is extremely likely.... I remember something about a political party that had only 2 seats.... (*reee foorm*) :-D

(just being silly)
 
WHERE THEY STAND 8 Each Monday through to election day, The Globe has tried to cut through the campaign rhetoric by examining one issue - and each party's position on it. Our final instalment: The Afghan war and the parties' plans to withdraw troops by 2011
MARCUS GEE mgee@globeandmail.com October 13, 2008
Article Link

In Canada today, one foreign-policy issue towers above any other: Afghanistan. Canadian troops based in Kandahar find themselves in their biggest fight since the Korean War. Nearly 100 have been killed combatting an attempt by the resurgent Taliban to undermine the Western-backed government of President Hamid Karzai. The Canadian mission has only shaky support at home and is especially unpopular in Quebec, where the Conservatives hope to win more seats.

Trying to defuse the issue, Conservative Leader Stephen Harper surprised everyone by announcing in the first week of the election campaign that his government would withdraw all troops by 2011. That went beyond his pledge in Parliament earlier this year to end the mission in Kandahar by 2011, which left open the option of deploying Canadians to another, less dangerous part of Afghanistan.

The announcement put the Liberals in a tight spot. They too favour a 2011 endpoint for the mission and supported that date in the parliamentary vote. So it is hard for them to tell voters - as Barack Obama has in his debate with John McCain over Iraq - that they would get troops home faster.

But two events during the campaign helped thrust Afghanistan into the election and give the Liberals a way to go after the Tories. First, the top British commander in Afghanistan, Brigadier Mark Carleton-Smith, said it was wrong to expect a decisive military victory. He also said that bringing the Taliban to the negotiating table for a political settlement "shouldn't make people uncomfortable."
More on link
 
>We subsidize the Arts for exactly the same reason we subsidize the aerospace sector and the auto industry: to preserve good jobs that earn dollars by exporting their products.

We earn nothing when we funnel money to foreigners (subsidy in effect is what gets passed on to foreigners as a price cut when goods are exported).

I have no sympathy for subsidies.  But not all subsidies are equal.  There is a vast difference between a subsidy to agriculture/industry and a subsidy to cultural activities.  The products of the former have intrinsic value.  "We" are not all culturally poorer if certain cultural activities and products can not survive in an open market.  Some people might feel shortchanged, but I will not.  Those who feel strongly about any particular sort of art should pay to consume it.

The fact is that subsidies prop up sharedholder profits, employee wages, and purchaser discounts.  Why should a fraction of my salary be transferred to a GM shareholder, a Bombardier engineer, or people in another country?
 
'If you work for an MP who won by 200 votes' in 2006, you're nervous: staffers
The Hill Times, October 13th, 2008
Article Link

Hundreds of staffers across the country will be watching the election results nervously. When their bosses get the boot from federal public office, they lose their jobs too.
By Abbas Rana
Hundreds of political staffers in Ottawa and across the country, who have invested emotionally in the election campaign, will be watching Tuesday's election results anxiously because if their bosses are defeated, they lose their jobs.

"All staffers are nervous unless you're working for some guy who won by 70 per cent, you're always nervous. If you work for an MP who won by 200 votes, you have to be nervous. For ministerial staffers, you are thinking whether your guy is going to win and whether he's going to be back in Cabinet. Is he going to be in the same position in Cabinet? So there's all kinds of uncertainty," said one senior Cabinet staffer last week.

"You're sitting there wondering if you're going to have a job the next day. You've invested a lot of emotional capital into the campaign. You've probably invested time and effort, money into the campaign either by giving up part of your job or giving up your job for a certain amount of time during the campaign, or by giving money to candidates or the party. If the race is close, you're nervous, you're down, you're emotionally invested in the outcome."

Some 33 incumbent MPs are not seeking re-election in this campaign. Generally, each MP has four full-time staffers, including two in the Hill office and two in the riding office under the MPs' office budgets, which run between about $280,500 to $339,360 depending on the riding's population and landmass. Automatically, an estimated 132 Hill and ridings office staffers are expected to lose their jobs on Tuesday.

But political staffers who lose their jobs will also likely be rehired by other and new MPs too.

"It's like anywhere else, if you're good at your job, you won't be unemployed for long. A political party is a family and, like all families, they spend an inordinate amount of time talking about one another. So everybody knows who is moving, who is going where. We have our own internal Hill Climbers and 'Hill Tumblers,' so we know who is moving where."

As well, there are also about 380 Cabinet ministerial and secretary of state staffers and an estimated 90 PMO staffers.

Other Hill staffers told Hill Climbers that experienced Hill staffers will be snatched up by new MPs because they "know their way around" the Hill and the legislative process.

"Newly-elected MPs tend to hire experienced staffers. It's important because new MPs don't know their way around on the Hill but experienced staffers know how the legislative process works and who specifically to call if the MP needs any help. New MPs usually need help in putting together their [SO-31] statements, speeches, communication material and committee work," said one Liberal staffer who requested anonymity.

If the staffers are not hired back, they also have good job prospects in the private sector too.

Before the Tories won the last federal election in January 2006, former Cabinet staffers were allowed to work as lobbyists or were given preferential treatment in the federal bureaucracy, but with the Federal Accountability Act (FAA), Cabinet staffers can't work as registered lobbyists for five years, and no political staffer has any preferential treatment to join the public service.

Exempt political staffers work at the pleasure of Cabinet ministers and due to the inherent uncertainty in the nature of their jobs, staffers are entitled to separation and severance pay if they lose their jobs. According to Treasury Board guidelines, Cabinet ministers set how much separation pay a staffer gets and it could be "a maximum of up to four months' separation pay." Severance pay, according to Treasury Board guidelines, "is calculated at the rate of two weeks' pay (based on salary at termination) for each year of service."

Staffers who work for MPs are also entitled to separation and severance pay. According to the Commons Board of Internal Economy guidelines, if an MP loses an election, the staff are entitled to 60 days of separation pay. They are entitled to two weeks of severance pay "for the first completed year of continuous employment and one week's pay for each succeeding complete year of continuous employment to a maximum of 28 weeks upon termination."
More on link
 
Zell_Dietrich said:
1)  Well it would be completely unheard of for a government to have a minister who wasn't elected... I mean would a government dare do such a shocking thing?

It would? How about Micheal Fortier in the Public Works portfolio?
 
Here, on election day, are the final polls.

--------------------

Ekos offers a final seat projection:

BQ: 51 seats (+3) (48 seats held at dissolution on 7 Sep 08)
Cons: 136 seats (+9) (127 “ )
Greens: 0 seats (-1) (1 “ )
Libs: 84 seats (-12) (96 “ )        According to this projection the Liberals and NDP do not have enough seats, themselves, (119)
NDP: 35 seats (+5 “ ) (30 “ )      to defeat the Conservatives. They would need to join with the BQ to topple the government, quickly, and take power
Others: 2 seats (NC) (2 “ )

The Ekos based that projection on these final numbers:

BQ: 9.8%
Cons: 34.8%
Greens: 9.6%
Libs: 26.4%
NDP: 19.4%

--------------------

Harris-Decima says:

BQ Soaring, Ontario Race Volatile

BQ: 11% (+1 from the 12 Oct 08 results)
Cons: 34% (-1 “ )
Greens: 9% (NC “ )
Libs: 25% (-3 “ )
NDP: 19% (NC “ )

--------------------

Nanos provides a breakdown of its three day rolling poll:

Party  11 Oct  12 Oct  13 Oct  3 Day Projection  Trend
BQ:    10.0%    9.7%    8.7%      9.5%           
Cons:  32.8%  32.6    37.1%    34.2%           
Greens: 8.5%    9.0%  7.1%      8.2%           
Libs:    26.8%  26.7%  26.7%    26.7%           
NDP:    21.9%  22.1%  20.3%    21.4%             

---------------

That’s all, folks!


 
Well, today is the ultimate poll. I expect that we will end up with another minority government. Though by the time I get the opportunity to vote the outcome will, in all likelyhood, have been decided by Quebec and Ontario.
 
I think it will be the day of the "Undecideds".....

with 25+ % of the voters undecided, they will make the ultimate decision....

Listening to CFRA this morning, I find most (maybe 75%) of the callers phoning in are voting Conservative.....if that's the case, I see a small majority on the horizon...
 
Personally I'm expecting a Conservative Minority with a Liberal Opposition (Jacky and his Wacky NDPers not far behind)
 
GAP said:
Listening to CFRA this morning, I find most (maybe 75%) of the callers phoning in are voting Conservative.....if that's the case, I see a small majority on the horizon...

I hope you're right! We need a majority right now. However, I think it's not very likely, unfortunately.

My father this morning told me he was going to vote for the local Liberal candidate. I said, "Well, just remember, a vote for Liberal is a vote for Carbon Tax." He went, "Oh S***! That's right. I can't vote Liberal!" LOL  Let's hope there are more people like him having 'aha' moments at the polling stations today! ;)
 
As much as I'd like to see something else, I know we are going to have a Conservative Minority again, Liberals as opposition, NDP after that, and perhaps one or two seats for Green this time. If the Liberals and NDP could get along however, they could steal the confidence of the house and force the conservative resignation. That however likely won't happen because Dione has already made it clear that he isn't exactly willing to work with Layton, and the leader of the NDP himself also seemed stubborn about working with the Liberals.
 
Intelligent Design said:
As much as I'd like to see something else, I know we are going to have a Conservative Minority again, Liberals as opposition, NDP after that, and perhaps one or two seats for Green this time. If the Liberals and NDP could get along however, they could steal the confidence of the house and force the conservative resignation. That however likely won't happen because Dione has already made it clear that he isn't exactly willing to work with Layton, and the leader of the NDP himself also seemed stubborn about working with the Liberals.

I would love to see a Conservative Majority but don't see it happening, as to the Greens, if they get a seat at all it would be May's and she's running in a riding against a strong Conservative.

I really can't see Layton and Dion working together at all as well, both have hinted it might be possible but only if They where in charge and Layton has put alot of heat against Dion as well so their feelings for each can't be too high
 
I wish I would see a Conservative Majority, but sadly I believe it will just be another Minority.


Beav
 
Just a little Request for this Poll

Please VOTE FOR WHAT YOU EXPECT TO HAPPEN AND NOT WHAT YOU HOPE FOR as it is a prediction not a desire

Thanks
 
Teflon said:
Just a little Request for this Poll

Please VOTE FOR WHAT YOU EXPECT TO HAPPEN AND NOT WHAT YOU HOPE FOR as it is a prediction not a desire

Thanks
Not only that, but actually go out and Vote today ;)


Beav
 
GAP said:
I think it will be the day of the "Undecideds".....

with 25+ % of the voters undecided, they will make the ultimate decision....

Listening to CFRA this morning, I find most (maybe 75%) of the callers phoning in are voting Conservative.....if that's the case, I see a small majority on the horizon...


Here is how the Conservatives can squeak out a bare majority:


Province                        BQ/Cons/Libs/NDP/Ind

Territories:                        0/1/1/1
BC:                                  0/22/3/11
Alberta:                            0/28/0/0
Saskatchewan:                  0/13/1/0
Manitoba:                          0/11/1/2
Ontario:                            0/62/29/15
Québec:                          51/10/12/1/1
New Brunswick:                  0/3/5/2
Nova Scotia:                      0/4/4/3
PEI:                                  0/0/4/0
Newfoundland & Labrador:    0/1/5/1


I know that gains of that order will be hard in BC and Ontario, keeping 10 out of 11 (currently held) seats in Québec might be difficult, too, and keeping one seat in NF may be a stretch, but it is just within reach.

 
I don't expect anything beyond minor changes in the seat distribution of the Commons.  I must admit that as a bit of a politics junkie I've kinda liked this string of minority governments, quite a difference from the healthy majorities of the Mulroney and Chretien periods.
 
So Many Votes; So Little Intelligence

I was watching a one hour phone in/text in/video cam television program last evening with my wife. As a Westerner, but new BC tree hugger,I could not for the life of me understand what is in the water in Ontario and Quebec. The misinformation/uniformed statements these people were making was scary. The best one was from Stan, somewhere in Ontario. He spoke of the rumors he had heard of Harper bringing in the Draft to keep young people out of trouble.

I also think it is time to stop treating Quebec with kid gloves if the Bloc gets most (define most??) of the seats. If Quebec doesn't want to be at the table, then so be it. Arts anyone?
 
I still hope, probably foolishly, for this sort of result: a Conservative majority – narrow though it may be. I would be almost as happy with this result. But I’m guessingoptimistically, based on the recent polls, something like this:

BQ: 55 seats
Cons: 148
Greens: 0 seats
Libs: 69
NDP: 35 seats
Inds: 1 seat

Don’t forget, please, that, a couple of weeks ago, before the financial crisis dominated the news, some of us began making predictions.


Edit: corrected link to the most recent polls and to the latest 'old' predictions
 
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