The CAF Post Trump

[GR66]

I have been a longtime proponent of this course of action. But I think we have a problem with that now.

Will the current administration in the US allow us to arm ourselves with those "enablers" because it is those enablers that would enable our CAF to become effective both in offence and defence. Would the US administration welcome an effective armed force on its northern border? A force that would permit our government to act in a sovereign manner and in our national interest?

Would they sell us Long Range Precision Fires? Effective GBAD?
Would they allow us to buy third party weapons over which they had no control?

Canada's empty warehouses have served the US well.

While I think Trump 47 is sincere in his fantasy that the US could expand to control all of North America above the Rio Grande (including Greenland) I don't believe the will is there to take Canada by force. I also believe that while MAGA antagonism against Canada is quite likely to continue post-Trump I believe it will be of the more traditional flavour of complaining that Canada is not doing enough to pull its weight.

I think they will be relatively satisfied if they feel they have successfully bullied us into spending 3% or so on defence. They will of course prefer that we spend that money on US equipment but hard for them to complain if we're basically doing exactly what they asked us to do.

Do I think that they would block us from getting certain military capabilities out of fear that we may use them against the US? No. Firstly, I don't honestly think that the US has any serious intention of invading Canada (especially if we're no longer viewed as a weak back door in their own defence), and secondly, we'd likely need to spend well over 10% of GDP (and on very specific capabilities) to realistically have the military capacity to even give the US military a bloody nose (never mind actually defeat them) should they invade Canada.

 

[Kirkhill]

While I think Trump 47 is sincere in his fantasy that the US could expand to control all of North America above the Rio Grande (including Greenland) I don't believe the will is there to take Canada by force. I also believe that while MAGA antagonism against Canada is quite likely to continue post-Trump I believe it will be of the more traditional flavour of complaining that Canada is not doing enough to pull its weight.

I think they will be relatively satisfied if they feel they have successfully bullied us into spending 3% or so on defence. They will of course prefer that we spend that money on US equipment but hard for them to complain if we're basically doing exactly what they asked us to do.

Do I think that they would block us from getting certain military capabilities out of fear that we may use them against the US? No. Firstly, I don't honestly think that the US has any serious intention of invading Canada (especially if we're no longer viewed as a weak back door in their own defence), and secondly, we'd likely need to spend well over 10% of GDP (and on very specific capabilities) to realistically have the military capacity to even give the US military a bloody nose (never mind actually defeat them) should they invade Canada.

A couple of weeks ago I would have put the probability of a US invasion as being non-existent. Not even a planning consideration possibility.

Now, I think it is fair to say that there is now a non-zero probability of the US taking some form of militarily supported action against Canadian territory. You want to bet against the US finding it necessary to secure the Northwest Passage as international waters on the grounds of needing to maintain US Navy freedom of movement? (For Example). Do you think the administration would be happier with that passage firmly in the hands of the CAF equipped with effect A2AD capabilities?

 

[Kirkhill]

One possibility? Working with JEF in Poland. Purchase and assemble an effective A2AD brigade for European service using European and Asian non-ITAR kit. And buy lots of it.

We can always fly it back home.

 

[brihard]

A couple of weeks ago I would have put the probability of a US invasion as being non-existent. Not even a planning consideration possibility.

Now, I think it is fair to say that there is now a non-zero probability of the US taking some form of militarily supported action against Canadian territory. You want to bet against the US finding it necessary to secure the Northwest Passage as international waters on the grounds of needing to maintain US Navy freedom of movement? (For Example). Do you think the administration would be happier with that passage firmly in the hands of the CAF equipped with effect A2AD capabilities?

Very small, but non-zero. It's a given that in a hypothetical where the US decides to act militarily against Canada, they have the ability to utterly overwhelm us in the conventional military sense. Where American historically struggles, and many of us have lived this, is with the 'what's next?' and in swallowing the human cost over the years that follow.

Odds of Canada facing military aggression from the US remain very low. CAF still needs to first and foremost work to grow capabilities and to return to being a capable and credible middle-power player in coalition military operations and in support of alliances, both as they exist now, and as they may shift and reemerge in the near future. This means developing and restoring both conventional warfighting skills, and being prepared to operate in environments where the threat isn't just conventional warfare.

Against that very small but non-zero chance of threat to our own territorial sovereignty, this can also dovetail nicely with disseminating the types of basic skills that would serve a domestic resistance. Learn how to recognize and defeat IEDs- and in doing so, learn how they can be made with things you can buy commercially. Learn how they can be forensically exploited by counter IED specialists, so that you can learn how to reduce useful forensic evidence. Learn basic communications security so we can avoid compromising ourselves to Russian SIGINT or OSINT collectors... And in doing so, also learn how to avoid collection by other potential adversaries. Run conduct after capture training, and really emphasize the difference that a few hours or days can make to render tactically useful information stale and useless. Bring in lecturers on counterinsurgency to learn troops up on how resilient insurgent networks isolate cells and insulate themselves from broad compromise. Hit the range and run the SATS; keep building up basic marksmanship proficiency.

All of this stuff is militarily useful in the conflicts Canada is most likely to find itself in. It's also useful for spreading nuggets of knowledge that would be useful for the unlikely worst case, which up til a month ago we would have taken for granted was probability zero, but no longer can.

Bullies don't look for fights, they look for victims. Economically, diplomatically, and militarily, we want to be more than a victim, and be prepared for a fight. There's a lot of opportunity for low level planned or white space training that would spread useful knowledge that would be dangerous to those who would harm us.

 

[foresterab]

Some initial steps in my world:
1) start with a massive upgrade process for northern airbases. Declare them DND assets and bring them up to fighter strip capacity in at least 6 locations in the NWT/Yukon/Nunavut.
2) I believe we have one artillery round producer for 155mm shells? Double the production output. Consider starting a separate facility on the other side of the country if artillery rounds are needed that badly by NATO/Ukraine.
3) Production facility for anti-armour hand held rockets.
4) I don't care where in the country (I think Quebec has most of the options) but I want enough boots/uniforms/sleeping bags/packs that not only every member of the CAF is fully kitted out (18 month goal) but the entire reserve force (3 year goal) and spares for CAF expansion (5 year goal).
5) I'm a huge proponent of heavy lift. Do we need more C-17 equivalents? Look at Airbus A400M and order another 6? 12?. This is combination domestic movement (I want to see Reserve units being able to board these and go straight to a training base) and international quick deployment.
6) Helicopters. I'm aware the Bell 412 is a less than ideal machine under CAF configuration. But lets get at least two more squadrons of these, set up as reserve units on full summer contracts, for use. I'm thinking aviation schools, interoperability for civilian fleets, and unfortunately domestic response (natural disasters and border patrols).
7) LAV6. Aware again this is not maybe the ideal machine. But if it's what we produce today then start by doubling the output for the CAF. If a more modern APC like the CV90 gets built in Canada these remain accessible for reserve units/training back ups.
8) Ammunition/small arms. The number of horror stories over CAF firearms is almost criminal. Again I want enough for every member of the CAF to be armed, trained (which includes generous live fire allotments), and spares. I understand some more specialized items like C6 machine guns might need more maintenance but every armoury should have enough C7's/sidearms to be able to kit out the full authorized force. Talk to Colt Canada about production rates. Build an ammunition factory for 5.56 and other common rounds. And if you want to get really bold start subsidizing target shooting ammo costs at authorized ranges starting with ex-CAF members who might be subject to recall.
9) Talk to BAE and build a small fleet of BV10 Haaglunds. I want to see a couple in every northern community + a squadron? (unclear the term to use) but I'm thinking enough for a company of soldiers to move out from key bases (see point #1). Each should also include flat deck, fuel transports and crane units to support extended ranges.
10) RCN. I apologize but this is the portion of the CAF I'm weakest on. My initial thought is add two more support vessels to the build order. I'd suggest more frigates but lets see a few built first.
11) Drones. I want to see drones available at squad/company/battalion levels. I don't care if they're starting with Walmart versions to learn with but I want to see drone operators trained yesterday. Pay a performance bonus if certified.
12) CAF entry requirements. If you speak a second language fluently...give them the bonus points for recruitment. Encourage any language skills because I don't care if it's Cree, Klingon, Polish, or Korean....the ability to flip languages and speak in the clear ad hoc is vastly under rated. Any temporary worker who wants to enlist...guaranteed PR status at end of term of service. And frankly if allied country members want to join the CAF it should be an expeditated process+ citizenship option (American, Polish, Nepalese, South Korean etc.). Not quite full Starship Trooper citizenship through service but why not offer it for those interested? At least until the CAF is up to strength.

 

[Remius]

Don't need to make it that pointed.

Raise Guardsmen on the same basis the US does. They are there to serve their local communities in emergencies. They are organized. They have a command structure. They have comms and transportation. They have access to reserve stocks of supplies (beans, blankets and bandages).

And they have small arms. Necessary to keep criminal and anti-social elements in line. And useful otherwise.

They also have a budget that they control.

 

[foresterab]

Thinking about second phases of what I'd like:
1) RCAF fighter force to be at least 50% larger. But get the F-35 flying before alternate aircraft are considered.
2) P-8 fleet to be doubled. Long range surveillance, especially maritime patrol, should be a priority.
3) Artillery. I want enough modern artillery to outfit at least two divisions worth. Self Propelled and in use by NATO force currently. I want a 3rd divisions worth in surplus (towed might be okay here to cut down maintenance costs).
4) Artillery Part 2. HIRMIS or alternative NATO system. But at least 2 divisions worth of long range fire for when you really want to ruin the rear echelon's day.
5) APC and Armour. Frankly if we can't build it here, from a system in production already, I'm not really interested. 6 months ago I would be asking the US for 300 M1 Abrams....but times change. I will let those with the greater knowledge discuss but I would be reaching out to S. Korea regarding K2 tank production rights ( a unit in large scale use and in both Europe and Asia) and BAE regarding CV90. Arguments to be made that Canadian production will be a parts/production center outside of Russian/Chinese ranges.
6) Submarine fleet. Aware it's under review but delivery times are what I think of longer timelines.
7) Long range strike drone production - again I'd like to see something like the US reaper with long loiter times that has significant range. For practice they can work the border patrols reliving manned aircraft or work as orbiting communications hubs in remote areas.
8) the expansion of the CAF reserves. At least 50% larger for the Army. RCN and RCAF may need additional personnel to account for fleet expansion but idea is the manpower pool is large enough not everyone is dock hopping from ship to ship.
9) I want to see a significant construction expansion in almost every major CAF base focused upon base housing, training centers (remote simulators), and storage/overhaul centers. Ideally enough housing that any CAF member can transfer from base to base with no changes to housing charges and be assured there will be enough accommodation for their family to arrive.
10) Bring back large scale exercises. At least bi-annual at brigade or larger.

These are all thoughts without considering price tags or political realities but where my mind is at for future options.

 

[OldSolduer]

several PRes armories to allow a better idea of resources avail. Net feeling after it all was, "We are totally screwed". Not much seems to have changed.

The old armories of the early 20th century are about done. Nothing will be done until one of them collapses on some soldiers. And even then all you can expect is "thoughts and prayers". I have not seen a movement to bul

 

[HavokFour]

Cheap inexpensive drones (FPV & bomber) have already been mentioned but with the prevalence of the Geran-2 aka Shahed-136 type drones causing a revival of the SPAAG, it may be worth considering getting a few systems to fight that type of threat. Relying purely on missiles is going to be very expensive.

 

[GK .Dundas]

Very small, but non-zero. It's a given that in a hypothetical where the US decides to act militarily against Canada, they have the ability to utterly overwhelm us in the conventional military sense. Where American historically struggles, and many of us have lived this, is with the 'what's next?' and in swallowing the human cost over the years that follow.

Odds of Canada facing military aggression from the US remain very low. CAF still needs to first and foremost work to grow capabilities and to return to being a capable and credible middle-power player in coalition military operations and in support of alliances, both as they exist now, and as they may shift and reemerge in the near future. This means developing and restoring both conventional warfighting skills, and being prepared to operate in environments where the threat isn't just conventional warfare.

Against that very small but non-zero chance of threat to our own territorial sovereignty, this can also dovetail nicely with disseminating the types of basic skills that would serve a domestic resistance. Learn how to recognize and defeat IEDs- and in doing so, learn how they can be made with things you can buy commercially. Learn how they can be forensically exploited by counter IED specialists, so that you can learn how to reduce useful forensic evidence. Learn basic communications security so we can avoid compromising ourselves to Russian SIGINT or OSINT collectors... And in doing so, also learn how to avoid collection by other potential adversaries. Run conduct after capture training, and really emphasize the difference that a few hours or days can make to render tactically useful information stale and useless. Bring in lecturers on counterinsurgency to learn troops up on how resilient insurgent networks isolate cells and insulate themselves from broad compromise. Hit the range and run the SATS; keep building up basic marksmanship proficiency.

All of this stuff is militarily useful in the conflicts Canada is most likely to find itself in. It's also useful for spreading nuggets of knowledge that would be useful for the unlikely worst case, which up til a month ago we would have taken for granted was probability zero, but no longer can.

Bullies don't look for fights, they look for victims. Economically, diplomatically, and militarily, we want to be more than a victim, and be prepared for a fight. There's a lot of opportunity for low level planned or white space training that would spread useful knowledge that would be dangerous to those who would harm us.

One of the arguments I've used time and again as to why we need to not only stop screwing around and get serious about defence issues and be far more aggressive about representing our interests to the world .
It's time to stop pretending to be a medium power and actually be one . Actions instead of Press conferences .
Because if you want to be taken seriously act like it .
As someone once said either your seated at the table or you're on the menu.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

A couple of weeks ago I would have put the probability of a US invasion as being non-existent. Not even a planning consideration possibility.

Now, I think it is fair to say that there is now a non-zero probability of the US taking some form of militarily supported action against Canadian territory. You want to bet against the US finding it necessary to secure the Northwest Passage as international waters on the grounds of needing to maintain US Navy freedom of movement? (For Example). Do you think the administration would be happier with that passage firmly in the hands of the CAF equipped with effect A2AD capabilities?

THE USN cannot operate on the surface in the NW passage and much of it is to shallow for subs. They are desperately short of icebreakers and would need the CCG to come to their rescue.

 

[lenaitch]

You want to bet against the US finding it necessary to secure the Northwest Passage as international waters on the grounds of needing to maintain US Navy freedom of movement?

They already have that now, for free. They ignore our claim of an internal passage and we pretend to care knowing there is nothing we can do about it.

5) I'm a huge proponent of heavy lift. Do we need more C-17 equivalents? Look at Airbus A400M and order another 6? 12?. This is combination domestic movement (I want to see Reserve units being able to board these and go straight to a training base) and international quick deployment.

Most CF bases don't have airfields. I suppose they could board them from local airports.

 

[Furniture]

5) I'm a huge proponent of heavy lift. Do we need more C-17 equivalents? Look at Airbus A400M and order another 6? 12?. This is combination domestic movement (I want to see Reserve units being able to board these and go straight to a training base) and international quick deployment.

I agree that we likely need more heavy and medium lift capability, more C-17s would be great. When I was in Trenton the C-17 and C-130 Sqns were going all out all the time.

I'd also suggest we look to the Embraer C-390 as a new tactical airlift option that kind of straddles the C-130 and C-17 capabilities. It's also new and not American made, so there is likely a way to get a deal on buying a few of them.

As to flying the reserves around, unless you fill the plane, it makes a lot more sense to fly commercial. Porter, Air Canada, WestJet, etc., have aircraft that are efficient at moving people, so it makes the most sense to use them.

10) RCN. I apologize but this is the portion of the CAF I'm weakest on. My initial thought is add two more support vessels to the build order. I'd suggest more frigates but lets see a few built first.

When the RCN has it's 15 RCDs, it will have one of the largest and most capable fleets of surface combatants in the world. More support ships definitely make sense, but I'd rather more CMMCs than trying to get more RCDs.