The "new normal:" a return to the 19th century?

[vonGarvin]

It's worth remembering that Yanukovich, as corrupt as he may have been, was elected  in 2010 a process that the West observed as being a clean and legitimate one. The fact that he got mixed up with the Russians, or that he was busy lining his own pockets, should surprise absolutely nobody. He was the guy Ukrainians elected, but it was in far eastern Europe, remember? Just what "democratic process" means there is a good question.

It's also true that he was thrown out by some kind of popular uprising, but just who actually  was in this uprising remains unclear to me. I'm not sure at all that it was the "proletariat": I think it was some weird alliance of neofascist nationalists with liberal middle/upper middle class types. That said, the apparent "hands off" approach by the Ukrainian Army was interesting: the national police did all the dirty work.

The West doesn't usually do anything serious when Russia acts in its own backyard, which Crimea and Transdnistria unquestionably are. IMHO this has been true no matter what stripe of Western governments were in power, nor how heavily armed the NATO countries were. Where we tend to draw the line is when the Russians get too far outside their  backyard, such as the Cuban Missile Crisis.

The Russians probably don't like potentially hostile governments on their borders any more than the US does: they just have fewer scruples about using force, and their population is probably a lot easier to manipulate.

I tend to agree.  Though re: populace,  I'm not sure if Putin is manipulating them, or if he is just doing what he knows would be popular.  And you're so right on how decisive they are.  They won't dither and dally, they'll send in their forces when needed.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Marches, border states, buffers and so on have been a feature of national and imperial security notions for 2,000+ years ~ longer, indeed, if we think about e.g. the ancient Egyptians (about whom I know precious little).

Putin/Russia is acting in a very familiar manner, including in thumbing his nose at the polite world, which is something Britain did for much of the 18th and 19th centuries and which America did, especially in Latin America, in the 20th.

 

[pbi]

"The strong do what they can, and the weak suffer what they must"
                             ​

-Thucydides​

Every big, powerful, aggressive country invades whoever it needs to/is able to, for whatever "reasons of state" it presents, at one time or another. The reasons and justifications vary, but for the invaded it all looks pretty much the same.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

Marches, border states, buffers and so on have been a feature of national and imperial security notions for 2,000+ years ~ longer, indeed, if we think about e.g. the ancient Egyptians (about whom I know precious little).

Putin/Russia is acting in a very familiar manner, including in thumbing his nose at the polite world, which is something Britain did for much of the 18th and 19th centuries and which America did, especially in Latin America, in the 20th.

This is merely history repeating itself.  The Russians are a land power and view geography/space as protection.  This goes all the way back to Medieval Muscovy and since then different empires occupying that part of the world have expanded and then contracted repeatedly.  Medieval Muscovy, Kievan Rus, Czarist Russia, The Soviet Union and now modern day Russia.  It's just history repeating it self.

 

[Kirkhill]

When you have that many repetitions you are not discussing a series of aberrations.  You are describing a natural process that is as regular and predictable as the tides or a beating heart.  Systolic and diastolic.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

When you have that many repetitions you are not discussing a series of aberrations.  You are describing a natural process that is as regular and predictable as the tides or a beating heart.  Systolic and diastolic.

Absolutely, which is why I am so taken aback that people were surprised this happened.  If anything this whole situation may play out favourably for the Canadian Forces as the government is going to be forced to take a renewed interest in defence, whether they want to or not.  I suspect this will be spun into a campaign issue come election time and the Arctic will come into play.

 

[Kirkhill]

Drew:

Everybody dies as well... anuvver natural process.  That often comes as a surprise as well  >

The fact that it happened isn't / shouldn't be a surprise.  Unless you are believer in the triumph of hope over experience.

The exact timing, location and scope..... now that was a surprise.

By the way - Jeffrey Simpson apparently thinks the view of Putin ought to be revised.

 

[pbi]

It's actually a good thing that people were reminded what Russia is really like, after that silly (but massively expensive) Potemkin village called Sochi.

 

[vonGarvin]

I agree.

Russia is decisive, greatly interested in its vital, strategic interests, and gives about one tenth of one cent's worth of care what the West thinks of it. 


And we ought to care very little about Crimea, or Ukraine for that matter.  The EU can have another basket case to worry about. 

 

[Retired AF Guy]

And we ought to care very little about Crimea, or Ukraine for that matter.  The EU can have another basket case to worry about.

Except that Canada is home to the largest Ukrainian diaspora mostly concentrated out west in the Tory heartland. Possible election issue -  you think??

 

[dimsum]

Except that Canada is home to the largest Ukrainian diaspora mostly concentrated out west in the Tory heartland. Possible election issue -  you think??

How recent are most of the diaspora though?  Are they 1st, 2nd (or more) generation?  How many of them self-identify as "Ukrainian" over "Canadian", at least enough to persuade Canada into doing something about it? 

 

[MilEME09]

How recent are most of the diaspora though?  Are they 1st, 2nd (or more) generation?  How many of them self-identify as "Ukrainian" over "Canadian", at least enough to persuade Canada into doing something about it?

I'm a fourth Generation Ukrainian Canadian, very few family connections back to Ukraine (there are some) and I believe we should do something about it

 

[tomahawk6]

Very troubling situation where one country can lay claim to territory it had given up.What would stop Russia from taking Alaska ? Or Mexico much of the southwestern US ?Extreme examples but still possible.

 

[Kat Stevens]

How recent are most of the diaspora though?  Are they 1st, 2nd (or more) generation?  How many of them self-identify as "Ukrainian" over "Canadian", at least enough to persuade Canada into doing something about it?

Probably no more or less than the 4th or 5th generation "Irish Americans" who couldn't find Galway or Derry on a map, that are still a pretty formidable voting block.

 

[Journeyman]

What would stop Russia from taking Alaska ?

Sarah Palin.  ;D

 

[daftandbarmy]

Naked pictures of Sarah Palin.  ;D

FTFY  ;D

 

[Edward Campbell]

Probably no more or less than the 4th or 5th generation "Irish Americans" who couldn't find Galway or Derry on a map, that are still a pretty formidable voting block.

An interesting thing about the hold that the old country mythology holds is that those 4th and 5th generation Irish Americans were the major source of the IRA's funding.  :dunno:

 

[Old Sweat]

Very troubling situation where one country can lay claim to territory it had given up.


Or Mexico much of the southwestern US ?Extreme examples but still possible.

Which is what Germany offered to Mexico in the Zimmerman telegram if it would join Germany in the event of war with the United States.

http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/zimmermann-telegram-published-in-united-states

 

[a_majoor]

Demographic changes could determine "who" owns the territory in question.

Kosovo is the historic heartland of the Serbs, but Serbs have drifted into modern day Serbia over the centuries, while Albanians have drifted into Kosovo, which explains why the Serbs were keen to expel the Albanians in 1999, and also why most other people rejected the Serbian claim to Kosovo. Your ancestors may have been living there in 1366, but if you aren't there today, then tough luck.

Russia may lose Siberia to Chinese immigration, as well as the more southerly parts of the "Near Beyond" as it depopulates while the Muslim peoples of Chechnya and other places rise.

And the Southwestern US may informally be transformed into "Alta Mexico" as the Hispanic population grows to overshadow the other Americans living there. Spanish is already the "second language" in many places, to the point that there are Spanish only media outlets, stores without any English signs and entire neighbourhoods without any English presence. While I suspect many people in "Alta Mexico" would wish to remain Americans on economic grounds, culturally and linguistically Alta Mexico would be quite distinct from the rest of America.

I'm sure readers can bring up examples in many other places as well.

 

[Edward Campbell]

:goodpost: Milpoints inbound.