The Next Conservative Leader

[cupper]

#RideMeWilfred suggests otherwise.

Comme sa

https://twitter.com/dmatthewmillar/status/595250804120035328

 

[Edward Campbell]

I was going to post this deadline: Doug Ford would consider running to replace Stephen Harper at the Conservative helm in the On the lighter side [of politics] thread, except that I suspect that Doug Ford would have a fair amount of support ... so it's not funny, is it?

 

[dapaterson]

I was going to post this deadline: Doug Ford would consider running to replace Stephen Harper at the Conservative helm in the On the lighter side [of politics] thread, except that I suspect that Doug Ford would have a fair amount of support ... so it's not funny, is it?

Depends.  If you're a Liberal or a Dipper, it's a laugh a minute.  "Accused former drug dealer with crackhead brother wants to take over law and order political party".

 

[Brad Sallows]

Jason Kenney is working like a man who wants the job.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Jason Kenney is working like a man who wants the job.

Agreed, Rona Ambrose also, in my opinion,
remains a likely contender.

John Baird, Peter MacKay and James Moore have, it seems, taken themselves
off the ballot, for the moment ... but when/if Prime Minister Harper resigns
they could all come back ...

Two outsiders who might have leadership ambitions are Kelli Leitch and
Erin O'Toole. Both appear to be popular in the party and are out campaigning
for others ~ always a sign of potential leadership ambitions.

Edit: typos

 

[jollyjacktar]

John Baird, there was some talk a couple of weeks ago about revelations coming to light of why he took off in such a rush.  But since then, Nada...

 

[Jed]

How well can Rona Ambrose provide tough, Prime Ministerial, leadership especially considering an international aspect?

 

[Retired AF Guy]

I was going to post this deadline: Doug Ford would consider running to replace Stephen Harper at the Conservative helm in the On the lighter side [of politics] thread, except that I suspect that Doug Ford would have a fair amount of support ... so it's not funny, is it?

He may have some support in Toronto ... outside of southern Ontario I doubt it.

 

[PuckChaser]

If he's got the Toronto support, you can build outside GTA support. Traditionally the GTA has been tough to crack, if the Tories make inroads there without giving up the rural/west vote, they're right back on top.

 

[Blackadder1916]

It's not the first time Doug Ford has considered running for leadership of a party. http://army.ca/forums/threads/113313/post-1336644.html#msg1336644

However, Mariomike's post back in November languished (in a larger omnibus thread "Politics in 2014) with no response or comment.

ERC noted that he considered putting it in the "lighter side" thread, I assume, because he thought most would consider it to be outlandish that Mr. Ford would have a serious shot at the CPC leadership.  I would have been (still am) among those who so thought.  But then, I'm not from Toronto, unfamiliar with its municipal politics nor do I have a favourable opinion of Mr. Ford.  I will admit that my opinion is based mainly on his connection to the antics of his much more famous brother, who, to be honest, was a more successful politician (at least, until he self-destructed).  Would any of us give serious consideration to a one term municipal councillor (who had the advantage of name recognition when he succeeded his brother in that ward) and failed mayoral candidate (who only sought election because of his brother's illness) if he hadn't been put in the national spotlight because of crass behaviour.

While being adept at retail politics, and the Fords were (Rob especially), I don't think that necessarily translates to the coalition building required of a national (or provincial) party leader.

It would be the same as electing someone leader of a party (regardless of qualifications) because they have the name recognition of their daddy who used to be the leader.  Alright, got me!  But you see where that leads to.

 

[McG]

A Ford at the helm of the CPC would likely redivide the right.  We could be back in The '90s.

 

[Ostrozac]

Yeah, Doug Ford as federal conservative party leader would be an odd choice. Assuming that the next conservative convention uses the same "one riding -- one point" system that the 2004 convention did, whichever leader is elected requires nationwide support, not just massive support from their base area. Does Doug Ford even speak French? Or have a profile out west (besides being the brother of Rob)? I doubt it.

Now, Doug Ford, Premier of Ontario? That is a much more likely scenario.

 

[The Bread Guy]

If he's got the Toronto support, you can build outside GTA support. Traditionally the GTA has been tough to crack, if the Tories make inroads there without giving up the rural/west vote, they're right back on top.

But on the other hand, someone like him could also be seen by the rural base as "just another Toronto guy", too.  Interesting choice to throw out there, indeed.

 

[dapaterson]

But on the other hand, someone like him could also be seen by the rural base as "just another Toronto guy", too.  Interesting choice to throw out there, indeed.

Being "just another Toronto guy" hasn't seemed to hurt the incumbent Conservative party leader.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Hmmmm ... I see that John Baird is out helping CPC candidates on the campaign trail ...

                   

                    John Baird helping MP Dr Kellie Leitch'

                        ... and schmoozing with Ontario's Liberal Finance Minister Charles Souza at the Toronto International Film Festival ...

                               

Is he testing the waters?


Edit: punctuation

 

[The Bread Guy]

Is he testing the waters?

One wonders how much of the old-style Reformist base he could carry.  Or if enough of the rest were OK, would that matter?

Being "just another Toronto guy" hasn't seemed to hurt the incumbent Conservative party leader.

He may have been born in TO, but he didn't appear to spend much time there after starting university before heading west.  I think his haters hold more than just THIS against him  ;D

 

[Edward Campbell]

While I think we should focus on the most likely contenders for the next Conservative leader (Jason Kenney, Rona Ambrose, John Baird, etc) we need to note that there are some attractive newcomers who are building their own support base by helping other candidates.

Dr Kellie Leitch is one of them ...

   

          ... seen here helping fellow CPC candidate (but one with much less "star power") Ted Opitz ...

And Veterans' Affairs Minister (and RCAF veteran) Erin O'Toole ...

   

          ... who is another one of those CPC "energizer bunnies," in his case, whenever he sees a veteran.

Neither Dr Leitch nor Mr O'Toole are quite "ready," yet, to contest for the leadership (both need to improve their French and serve in mores senior portfolios) but both will be only be in their '50s in 2025 when the next leader, the one after Harper will need replacing.

 

[Lumber]

Neither Dr Leitch nor Mr O'Toole are quite "ready," yet, to contest for the leadership (both need to improve their French and serve in mores senior portfolios) but both will be only be in their '50s in 2025 when the next leader, the one after Harper will need replacing.

But I thought Harper was stepping down on October, 20th?  :nana:

 

[Edward Campbell]

But I thought Harper was stepping down on October, 20th?  :nana:

In my opinion, Prime Minister Harper is, already, past his best before date and I think (just hope?) he knows that. I hope that even if he wins, perhaps especially if he wins a majority, he will want to retire as one of the few (ever) prime ministers to have won four mandates (King had six, but ...) and become a Conservative elder statesman and make some serious money on Bay Street.

If he wins a minority and decides to retire quickly he will make life difficult for Messers Mulcair and Trudeau, both of whom have vowed to "take down" a Stephen Harper government. By convention, all parties have a gentlemen's agreement to not force an election while one of the major parties is having a leadership race. Such leadership races normally last for about six months ... let's say that Prime Minister Harper wins a minority on 19 Oct and, on 20 Oct, as you suggest, Lumber, he announces his retirement, maybe even going so far as to resign his own seat and appoint an interim leader. What do the LPC and NDP do? Keep their promise and throw the Tories out or be traditional gentlemen and let the CPC elect their new leader and then force an election? Choice two would, of necessity involve one or the other party supporting both a Throne Speech and a budget. Either choice will be criticized by someone.

 

[Lumber]

If he wins a minority and decides to retire quickly he will make life difficult for Messers Mulcair and Trudeau, both of whom have vowed to "take down" a Stephen Harper government. By convention, all parties have a gentlemen's agreement to not force an election while one of the major parties is having a leadership race. Such leadership races normally last for about six months ... let's say that Prime Minister Harper wins a minority on 19 Oct and, on 20 Oct, as you suggest, Lumber, he announces his retirement, maybe even going so far as to resign his own seat and appoint an interim leader. What do the LPC and NDP do? Keep their promise and throw the Tories out or be traditional gentlemen and let the CPC elect their new leader and then force an election? Choice two would, of necessity involve one or the other party supporting both a Throne Speech and a budget. Either choice will be criticized by someone.

I was more implying that he would lose on 19 Oct, and as promised, he would step down. But, if he won a minority government, I can't see him stepping down. I haven't read his biography so I don't have a great feel for his character. But I think that the amount of heat Harper must be feeling would have a significant affec ton him. So many Canadians are not just being pro-LPC or pro-NDP, or even anti-CPC; so many Canadians are being anti-Harper. In my short life, I've not seen such resentment for an individual Prime Minister/Party Leader (did the Trudeau haters hate him this much?). So, given the anathema toward Harper, even a minotiry government win for Harper (and this is where I'm making an assumption) would feel like a real personal victory. This would give him, IMO, a surge of personal pride and determination, and keep him from stepping down.

Once more unto the breach.