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The RCAF's Next Generation Fighter (CF-188 Replacement)

At the moment, the odds are pretty fair that we will end up fighting Russia in Europe before 2030 so that is your scenario. The second possibility of course remains China sometime around 2028 according to the Chinese who really want Taiwan. Now in both scenarios we will be fielding maybe one flight of 6 plus our current F18s which is sad but possible so we will not be up to strength but we need to look to the future and to do that you should consider the past rather than worrying about credibility

In both scenarios we aren't fighting alone or fielding the majority of the aircraft. And neither scenario requires us to deploy a precise number of F-35s.

Some of the discussions around numbers for a mixed fleet seem to be suggesting F-35's for the NORAD role and a Euro aircraft for the NATO role. Personally I think that's backward.

It is backwards. But it's that way because the Americans will not qualify the Rafale and the Typhoon for NORAD duties. We saw this with FFCP. And if the government is intent on reducing reliance on the US, then the second fleet has to be the one tasked to NATO.

As I pointed out earlier there's a few COAs here. We can buy a bridge fleet for NATO tasks. Or we can accept a gap through the 2030s and sign up for GCAP (supposedly EIS in 2035) to start delivering in the late 2030s.
 
Some of you are so focused on miltalk and tech that you are substantially ignoring the issues with the US. Good luck convincing some laid off auto workers in Windsor that we need to buy more F-35s. We have no idea what this administration will do. But it would be prudent to prepare for the worst. And one of those preparations should be plans that our public can accept or will simply demand from the CAF.
 
Sure the other side's 5th Gen is a threat.
Hey I’m right here.


But that other side is not just facing Canada individually. And that other side (Russia) still doesn't have large numbers of 5th gen and will struggle to project what they have across the Arctic.
Oh, Russia, the ‘5th Generation’ SU-57 that isn’t. The thing with the radar cross section of a 747….

Let's hear your actual scenario. Who do you imagine we should be planning to fight and how many 5th Gen do you think they are throwing at Canada itself?
Well we have a lot of F-35 and F-22’s down here ;)


As far as realistic threat, how many SUAS could a drone carrier get close to the EEZ or National Limit?
 
Some of you are so focused on miltalk and tech that you are substantially ignoring the issues with the US. Good luck convincing some laid off auto workers in Windsor that we need to buy more F-35s.

How many auto workers are there in Windsor? We shouldn't sacrifice national defense procurements because assembly line workers in one industry don't have a job in a free market. These auto workers should go look for employment in a different field, especially one that's increasingly moving towards automation. I hear the resource sector in northern ontario is always looking for people....
 
How many auto workers are there in Windsor? We shouldn't sacrifice national defense procurements because assembly line workers in one industry don't have a job in a free market. These auto workers should go look for employment in a different field, especially one that's increasingly moving towards automation. I hear the resource sector in northern ontario is always looking for people....
Each job on the assembly line likely supports 2-3 jobs in the sub-contractor sector supplying bits and services. Same with ship building. Look at the final assembly of a product as the value added bit.
 
How many auto workers are there in Windsor? We shouldn't sacrifice national defense procurements because assembly line workers in one industry don't have a job in a free market. These auto workers should go look for employment in a different field, especially one that's increasingly moving towards automation. I hear the resource sector in northern ontario is always looking for people....
lol, as someone born and breed in an auto family from Windsor (before I escaped), those in that field never, ever leave. That is one of the reasons why Windsor has 9.4% unemployment and usually among the top 2/3 cities in Canada for unemployment.
They simply don’t leave. They simply don’t get another skill, they stay there forever.
Even if you offered them jobs down the road in London with GDLS making LAV’s 97% of them wouldn’t go. They’d find some crazy reason to stay in Windsor.
 
lol, as someone born and breed in an auto family from Windsor (before I escaped), those in that field never, ever leave. That is one of the reasons why Windsor has 9.4% unemployment and usually among the top 2/3 cities in Canada for unemployment.
They simply don’t leave. They simply don’t get another skill, they stay there forever.
Even if you offered them jobs down the road in London with GDLS making LAV’s 97% of them wouldn’t go. They’d find some crazy reason to stay in Windsor.
Never understood why anyone (retired friend of mine from Pickering) would move to Windsor let alone stay there. Then again, some relatives moved from Vancouver to Winterpeg.
 
Never understood why anyone (retired friend of mine from Pickering) would move to Windsor let alone stay there. Then again, some relatives moved from Vancouver to Winterpeg.
Because it’s got the best overall weather than anywhere else in Canada.
If you like boating/fishing it’s got L St Clair, Detroit River and west end of L Erie.
It’s got access to a top shelf airport in Detroit (cheap flights to anywhere). You can cheer on a winning hockey team in the Red Wings. It has NBA, NFL and MLB all within 3 miles/ 5km of each other.
Lastly, the best pizza anywhere in North America.
 
Because it’s got the best overall weather than anywhere else in Canada.
If you like boating/fishing it’s got L St Clair, Detroit River and west end of L Erie.
It’s got access to a top shelf airport in Detroit (cheap flights to anywhere). You can cheer on a winning hockey team in the Red Wings. It has NBA, NFL and MLB all within 3 miles/ 5km of each other.
Lastly, the best pizza anywhere in North America.
In retrospect my memories are from when I was about 12 and the only positive I remember where sailing on a family friends C&C 30 out of LaSalle Yacht Club and going to the Ford museum in Detroit. Thru my young eyes Windsor was either plazas or wide open farm lands and the heat/humidity was oppressing.
 
In retrospect my memories are from when I was about 12 and the only positive I remember where sailing on a family friends C&C 30 out of LaSalle Yacht Club and going to the Ford museum in Detroit. Thru my young eyes Windsor was either plazas or wide open farm lands and the heat/humidity was oppressing.
I’ve sailed a CnC 27 out of that same marina, up river to L St Clair a number of times back in my 20s.
I miss that heat/humidity with the 5pm thunderstorms almost daily. Fishing for pickerel/walleye on the Detroit River in the springtime. The sunsetting at 9:45 in early/mid July.
 
I hear the resource sector in northern ontario is always looking for people....
This must be the Canadian version of, "Learn to code...."

On topic. We're going to find it very hard to justify tens of billions going to American weapons makers while their tariffs are throwing people out of work here. I'd rather have a plan B ready to go, than no plan.
 
This must be the Canadian version of, "Learn to code...."

On topic. We're going to find it very hard to justify tens of billions going to American weapons makers while their tariffs are throwing people out of work here. I'd rather have a plan B ready to go, than no plan.
Hope - we have hope lol
 
How many auto workers are there in Windsor? We shouldn't sacrifice national defense procurements because assembly line workers in one industry don't have a job in a free market. These auto workers should go look for employment in a different field, especially one that's increasingly moving towards automation. I hear the resource sector in northern ontario is always looking for people....
Except it is becoming anything but a free market. I suspect the same arguments were used by the scrap metal industry in 1939 as the last ship loaded with iron sailed for Tokyo. The greater concern is how much control we will have over our own investments. If the supplier won't let you use it because they happen to be trying to make a deal with your adversary it isn't much of a defense deterrent is it?
 
Back to the topic at hand, a few questions about options. I get that we’re only contractually committed to the first batch of 16 F-35s but presumably that’s not a practical number to stop at as it’s just enough to equip a squadron plus. So assuming we were going to go with a mixed fleet (expensive I know but we did it until we scrapped the CF-5s I believe and many of the other countries acquiring the F-35 are also operating other airframes, including the Aussies), what’s the minimum we would want for the F-35s and would we want them in an expeditionary strike role or for NORAD? My guess is somewhere in the range of 50 to equip an expeditionary wing but have nothing to base that on but my gut. (I too know nothing but that was already taken as a handle….)

And then what aircraft would we choose to allow us to quickly retire the CF-18s and replace them with a current generation fighter to stay current with our allies until 6th generation comes online. It seems to me that, notwithstanding the SAAB offer to build in Canada, the Grippen is out based on too much US content, especially the engines. On top of which, setting up the capacity to build just for our own purposes seems likely to be an expensive proposition. So Typhoon or Rafale? I see both are still in production with recent orders on the books and upgrades rolling out. Typhoon would seem to offer more allied interoperability if that matters in the context, which it might not if we were buying them primarily for air defence. Or would we also be using them in combination with the F-35s in an expeditionary role as well?

And how many? I’m assuming that, in the current security environment, we’d be talking about a net increase in the number of aircraft/squadrons, not to the scale of the 50s and 60s perhaps but at least to what we had with the CF-18s in the 80s? Or given the recruitment/training/retention challenges is that just a pipe dream?
 
Get 60 F-35s. All in Cold Lake. Primary mission is NORAD. Secondary deployments as available. Get 60 Eurocanards. All based in Bagotville. Keep rotating a squadron of the Eurocanards through Latvia every 6 months. Build some nice permanent facilities there.
 
Or, we can get the full order and double that number with a generation 4.5 aircraft to be replaced by gen 6 so we're actually showing we're serious about 2% GDP and NORAD.
 
The comments I find funny are that Canada can't find enough pilots now so certainly not for more airframes....

Dude... if a country of 40M people can't find about 500 young adults who are interested in flying fricken FIGHTER JETS, that country is seriously fucked up and doing shit completely wrong. Give me a break!

:ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO:
 
Finding enough interest isn't a problem. Training and retaining is. And given the disqualification rates in selection and failure rates in training, we probably need something like 80-100 people walking into a recruiting centre to get one OTU graduate to a gun squadron. This is why retention matters.
 
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