The RCAF's Next Generation Fighter (CF-188 Replacement)

[OldSolduer]

Whoever is pushing this Gripen nonsense obviously isn't within the military itself as it makes little sense.

Elbows Up!!!

 

[Altair]

Ah, ok, understand.

Or, to be Devil's Advocate. Maybe the thought process is to sell off the F35's 20yrs out and run a mix of Gripen's and GCAP or Gripen's and German/Swede/Canada 6th gen?

So many variables here.

1) F35's only - and then what 20-25yrs out? US has said that the F47 will have no foreign manu or dev partners
2) F35's only - and GCAP down the road?
3) F35's and Gripens - and then what, GCAP or possible German/Sweden 6th gen?
4) F35's and M346's - and GCAP down the road?
5) ?? and ??

With SAAB set up in Canada, it ties us to a country that takes its defense seriously and will drag Canada along for the ride.

Subsequent Canadian governments would need to have to justify SAAB pulling out of Canada for them(the Canadian Government) being laggards after previous Canadian governments went through all the work getting SAAB set up.

So if SAAB sets up a 6th gen program with Germany for example, we have a seat at the table and incentive to actually buy those planes, due to wanting to continue the partnership and for the domestic industrial benefits.

Canadians are just too accustomed to buying the bare minimum and not replacing the bare minimum for far too long. Countries with domestic military industries do not act that way.

 

[Czech_pivo]

LILLEY: Carney set to buy Swedish Gripen jet, and then what?

The Liberals will turn to Sweden as proof we aren't reliant on the United States, but we will get a lower quality jet and trade headaches.

torontosun.com

LILLEY: Carney set to buy Swedish Gripen jet, and then what?​

Now, it appears that the Carney government wants to ensure they announce that they will be buying Gripen jets ahead of the Farnborough International Airshow taking place in Britain in July. At that event it is expected that the Carney government will also commit Canada to joining the Global Combat Air Programme, a plan by Britain, Italy and Japan to build a sixth-generation fighter jet with allies.

 

[Czech_pivo]

With SAAB set up in Canada, it ties us to a country that takes its defense seriously and will drag Canada along for the ride.

Subsequent Canadian governments would need to have to justify SAAB pulling out of Canada for them(the Canadian Government) being laggards after previous Canadian governments went through all the work getting SAAB set up.

So if SAAB sets up a 6th gen program with Germany for example, we have a seat at the table and incentive to actually buy those planes, due to wanting to continue the partnership and for the domestic industrial benefits.

Canadians are just too accustomed to buying the bare minimum and not replacing the bare minimum for far too long. Countries with domestic military industries do not act that way.

Read what I just posted.

Obviously nothing is firm yet, but if so it puts my back of the napkin options #3 and #4 on the table.

 

[ArmyRick]

drag Canada along for the ride

Canada doesn't need to be dragged anywhere.

Subsequent Canadian governments would need to have to justify SAAB pulling out of Canada

How about SAAB convinces us to do Business with them? WE lose lots of companies and you don't shed a tear for any of them. Operational requirements must come first.

if SAAB sets up a 6th gen program with Germany

If, if, if.. Lets assume it does forward. Your looking at years of research and then development and finally manufacturing. And a small market to boot. Again, operational requirements must come first and foremost, we have NORAD set up with our American friends, yes friends. Trump isn't all of America.

anadians are just too accustomed to buying the bare minimum

Many Canadians have been vehemently anti-defence spending/military/war etc for several generations and we have paid for it, will still pay more for that mindset.

What do you think happens when Trump retires? The Liberal Boomer base of Carney will be right back to lets gut the shit out of defence because we hate the military/live in a false reality. The only reason that chunk of Canadian society is pro-defence spending is to throw it in the Orange man's face. Little do they know how interwoven our militaries are.

These same Canadians balked at any defence spending during the cold war, during the Yugoslavian war, during the GWOT, during the rise of ISIS anfd hell, even after Putin's 2022 escalation of the war in the Ukraine.

Their is a chunk of Canadian society that lives with their heads shoved firmly up their own asses.

 

[Rainbow1910]

Ah, ok, understand.

Or, to be Devil's Advocate. Maybe the thought process is to sell off the F35's 20yrs out and run a mix of Gripen's and GCAP or Gripen's and German/Swede/Canada 6th gen?

So many variables here.

1) F35's only - and then what 20-25yrs out? US has said that the F47 will have no foreign manu or dev partners
2) F35's only - and GCAP down the road?
3) F35's and Gripens - and then what, GCAP or possible German/Sweden 6th gen?
4) F35's and M346's - and GCAP down the road?
5) ?? and ??

The F-35 has a service life of 30-40+ years and considering the investment/cost/capability of the airframe, it would be intensively idiotic to retire the F-35A fleet at 20 years after delivery, keeping the much less capable and less advanced Gripen fleet operational to fly with some other platform. If anything, it should be the other way around with the Gripen either not being purchased at all given its incoming obsolescence or sold off to another partner (which is going to still be incredibly resource and financially inefficient).

In my personal opinion, the ideal split would be the full F-35A fleet accompanied by a force of unmanned wingmen drones (developed/build in Canada) and GCAP coming in the future to supplement or replace the F-35.

why wouldn't we continue to partner with SAAB for their 6th gen program, especially if they are working with the Germans?

The best part of working with SAAB is SAAB isnt going to be laggards, they are geographically close to Russia and take their defense serious, and will drag us along for the ride.

Because Saab is effectively the least capable partner out of any of the European aerospace companies for Canada to partner with? Even if Saab successfully signs themselves up with the Germans, they are going to be very much the junior partner in the relationship with Airbus and Germany/Spain. We are signing up to what is likely the most troublesome European 6th gen program alongside the industrial laggard of Saab, who doesn't have much relevant experience outside of their excellent EW systems in building 5th generation aircraft, let alone jumping directly into a 6th generation program. They can take their defence as seriously as they want, seriousness doesn't conjure expertise and capability out of thin air. Airbus is a very competent company with the ability to eventually build a next gen fighter, but this will be very difficult with them forced to lead.

Compare this with GCAP, who has Britain (involved with the F-35 program with production/design alongside Eurofighter), Japan (domestic existing 4th gen design/production capability and existing 5th gen prototype design capability) and Italy (production/assembly/design of Eurofighter alongside production/assembly of F-35). Personally, I'd much rather throw Canada's effort and funding into GCAP versus whatever comes from the now split European programs.

With SAAB set up in Canada, it ties us to a country that takes its defense seriously and will drag Canada along for the ride.

Subsequent Canadian governments would need to have to justify SAAB pulling out of Canada for them(the Canadian Government) being laggards after previous Canadian governments went through all the work getting SAAB set up.

So if SAAB sets up a 6th gen program with Germany for example, we have a seat at the table and incentive to actually buy those planes, due to wanting to continue the partnership and for the domestic industrial benefits.

Canadians are just too accustomed to buying the bare minimum and not replacing the bare minimum for far too long. Countries with domestic military industries do not act that way.

I would attach some stipulations to Saab "setting up" in Canada. From what has been released, it seems Saab is promising Canada effectively the same deal as Brazil for the Gripen, which is domestic assembly. This is very different from full on licensed production Canada did previously for aircraft like the Canadair Sabre, we're effectively going to be putting the aircraft together from largely finished parts/equipment shipped into Canada from Saab/their suppliers. There will be some limited manufacture of parts domestically, but that is very likely to be items like landing gear, fuselage parts, etc.

This is very different from designing or even entirely building a 4th generation fighter ourselves under license, the expertise transfer is nowhere near as extensive when we're putting together parts kits. Even if we remain at the table and involved in a hypothetical 6th generation program with Germany and Sweden, Germany and Spain are likely to be eating up most of the workshare and handing Saab/Canada the remaining scraps. We maintain Saab's facility in Canada so we can build landing gear and other misc components for a 6th gen program? We don't even get the benefits of the F-35 contracts who atleast are high volume, as 6th gen programs will almost certainly not be.

 

[Good2Golf]

Operational requirements must come first.

Never have, never will.*



* as a rule. Perhaps some fast-tracked AFG kit was the exception, but the rule holds true.

 

[Czech_pivo]

The F-35 has a service life of 30-40+ years and considering the investment/cost/capability of the airframe, it would be intensively idiotic to retire the F-35A fleet at 20 years after delivery, keeping the much less capable and less advanced Gripen fleet operational to fly with some other platform. If anything, it should be the other way around with the Gripen either not being purchased at all given its incoming obsolescence or sold off to another partner (which is going to still be incredibly resource and financially inefficient).

In my personal opinion, the ideal split would be the full F-35A fleet accompanied by a force of unmanned wingmen drones (developed/build in Canada) and GCAP coming in the future to supplement or replace the F-35.


Because Saab is effectively the least capable partner out of any of the European aerospace companies for Canada to partner with? Even if Saab successfully signs themselves up with the Germans, they are going to be very much the junior partner in the relationship with Airbus and Germany/Spain. We are signing up to what is likely the most troublesome European 6th gen program alongside the industrial laggard of Saab, who doesn't have much relevant experience outside of their excellent EW systems in building 5th generation aircraft, let alone jumping directly into a 6th generation program. They can take their defence as seriously as they want, seriousness doesn't conjure expertise and capability out of thin air. Airbus is a very competent company with the ability to eventually build a next gen fighter, but this will be very difficult with them forced to lead.

Compare this with GCAP, who has Britain (involved with the F-35 program with production/design alongside Eurofighter), Japan (domestic existing 4th gen design/production capability and existing 5th gen prototype design capability) and Italy (production/assembly/design of Eurofighter alongside production/assembly of F-35). Personally, I'd much rather throw Canada's effort and funding into GCAP versus whatever comes from the now split European programs.


I would attach some stipulations to Saab "setting up" in Canada. From what has been released, it seems Saab is promising Canada effectively the same deal as Brazil for the Gripen, which is domestic assembly. This is very different from full on licensed production Canada did previously for aircraft like the Canadair Sabre, we're effectively going to be putting the aircraft together from largely finished parts/equipment shipped into Canada from Saab/their suppliers. There will be some limited manufacture of parts domestically, but that is very likely to be items like landing gear, fuselage parts, etc.

This is very different from designing or even entirely building a 4th generation fighter ourselves under license, the expertise transfer is nowhere near as extensive when we're putting together parts kits. Even if we remain at the table and involved in a hypothetical 6th generation program with Germany and Sweden, Germany and Spain are likely to be eating up most of the workshare and handing Saab/Canada the remaining scraps. We maintain Saab's facility in Canada so we can build landing gear and other misc components for a 6th gen program? We don't even get the benefits of the F-35 contracts who atleast are high volume, as 6th gen programs will almost certainly not be.

Read what I just posted about GCAP. Obviously nothing set in stone just yet but GCAP is looking like its on the agenda.

 

[Rainbow1910]

Read what I just posted about GCAP. Obviously nothing set in stone just yet but GCAP is looking like its on the agenda.

From the article you linked:

The leadership of the Royal Canadian Air Force, the leadership at the Department of National Defence, and Defence Minister David McGuinty all back proceeding with the planned purchase of 88 F-35 fighter jets.

Yet, for political rather than military reasons, the Carney government is expected to announce shortly that Canada will pivot to buy the Swedish-made Gripen jet. While Minister McGuinty supports the military in their plans to purchase the F-35, Industry Minister Melanie Joly and Stephen Fuhr, the former fighter pilot turned point man for Carney on defence procurement, back the Gripen.

Joly supports buying the Gripen due to a combination of anti-Americanism and a desire to try and get Saab to build the Gripen in Montreal. The claim is that building the Gripen here will create 10,000 jobs and yet Brazil’s efforts to build the Gripen at home has barely created 200 jobs. The F-35 on the other hand already sustains thousands of jobs in this country as Canadian parts are put into every single plane deployed.

Fuhr on the other hand has been described by multiple sources as a man who simply hates the F-35 and has never liked the fifth-generation stealth aircraft. Ottawa insiders say that as of late, it’s Fuhr who has Carney’s ear and that he’s been going around McGuinty’s back to poison the well with Carney on the F-35.

Meanwhile, throughout this process, senior leadership at National Defence has been frozen out of not only the decision-making process, but also the conversations around what should happen next.

This is incredibly worrisome, it sounds like we have the RCAF, DND and the Defence Minister being either frozen out of the fighter review or being actively undermined in their opinions/proposals by the Industry Minister and the Secretary of State for Defence Procurement. Fuhr going behind McGunity's back on a defence file directly to the PM is especially worrisome, as it's directly undermining a senior official on their own file.

All of this political interference for an inferior aircraft hinging on a number of questionable promises from Saab really undermines my own confidence in our procurement system and in government as a whole. Joly is especially infuriating here as she is entirely out of her depth on this file and seemingly having a major conflict of interest, given she's pushing for a production facility in Montreal which houses her own riding of Ahuntsic-Cartierville.

With this all being said, Toronto Sun is a known rag and Lilley isn't exactly known as being an unbiased source of info regarding Liberal Governments. There isn't sources attached here, so I am a bit skeptical of all of this.

 

[Altair]

Canada doesn't need to be dragged anywhere.

We absolutely do. Given the choice, especially without skin in the game, we default to being laggards.

With skin in the game, we actually try to at least keep up. I point to the LAV program. We keep ordering and innovating that program because of the industrial benefits and the goal of keeping them in Canada. We dont treat them like our shipbuilding or fighter procurement.

But looking internationally, other nations, including Sweden treat their air defense corporations like we treat GD. And in that regard, we absolute need to be dragged into that mindset.

How about SAAB convinces us to do Business with them? WE lose lots of companies and you don't shed a tear for any of them. Operational requirements must come first.

Except right now we get neither. If we have a domestic air defense industry, we have more incentive to maintain it. We dont go generations not purchasing anything.

Nations with domestic industries do not act like the way Canada has for the last 50 years. The problem is Canadians are wed to that model. We need chuck that model. But people here are of the mindset that we buy whatever with little to no industrial benefits to Canada. We see how that works. We put off replacing kit for decades past when we should. Why are we defending this model of doing things?

If, if, if.. Lets assume it does forward. Your looking at years of research and then development and finally manufacturing. And a small market to boot. Again, operational requirements must come first and foremost, we have NORAD set up with our American friends, yes friends. Trump isn't all of America.

MAGA isnt going anywhere.

Many Canadians have been vehemently anti-defence spending/military/war etc for several generations and we have paid for it, will still pay more for that mindset.

Which is why if we get a domestic production line here we have incentives to not neglect it. This is why i keep advocating for SAAB. Its to break bad habits.

What do you think happens when Trump retires? The Liberal Boomer base of Carney will be right back to lets gut the shit out of defence because we hate the military/live in a false reality. The only reason that chunk of Canadian society is pro-defence spending is to throw it in the Orange man's face. Little do they know how interwoven our militaries are.

MAGA isnt going anywhere.

These same Canadians balked at any defence spending during the cold war, during the Yugoslavian war, during the GWOT, during the rise of ISIS anfd hell, even after Putin's 2022 escalation of the war in the Ukraine.

Again, SAAB to break bad habits.

Their is a chunk of Canadian society that lives with their heads shoved firmly up their own asses.

Agreed.

Its why i dont want to do the same as before and expect different results

 

[Czech_pivo]

From the article you linked:


This is incredibly worrisome, it sounds like we have the RCAF, DND and the Defence Minister being either frozen out of the fighter review or being actively undermined in their opinions/proposals by the Industry Minister and the Secretary of State for Defence Procurement. Fuhr going behind McGunity's back on a defence file directly to the PM is especially worrisome, as it's directly undermining a senior official on their own file.

All of this political interference for an inferior aircraft hinging on a number of questionable promises from Saab really undermines my own confidence in our procurement system and in government as a whole. Joly is especially infuriating here as she is entirely out of her depth on this file and seemingly having a major conflict of interest, given she's pushing for a production facility in Montreal which houses her own riding of Ahuntsic-Cartierville.

With this all being said, Toronto Sun is a known rag and Lilley isn't exactly known as being an unbiased source of info regarding Liberal Governments. There isn't sources attached here, so I am a bit skeptical of all of this.

If its true.

Lots of rumour and speculation going on. How many leaks have their been in the RCAF to the media in the last 6-9 months? How many articles about the mix of the fleet coming from 'sources' within the RCAF? This article today doesn't say 'sources within the RCAF are saying that Fuhr is going behind the back of McGunity'. Its speculation. Unlike the RCN and the CA, the RCAF sure seems to not have its shit together and there seems to be multiple choirs singing different songs, along with a number of Conductors in front of those choirs conducting at different tempo's.

I am skeptical of this as well. The air show in Farnborough is a place where major announcements are typically made, Lilley could be just taking that event and trying to tie it to the announcement on GCAP and/or the Gripens.

 

[Altair]

From the article you linked:


This is incredibly worrisome, it sounds like we have the RCAF, DND and the Defence Minister being either frozen out of the fighter review or being actively undermined in their opinions/proposals by the Industry Minister and the Secretary of State for Defence Procurement. Fuhr going behind McGunity's back on a defence file directly to the PM is especially worrisome, as it's directly undermining a senior official on their own file.

All of this political interference for an inferior aircraft hinging on a number of questionable promises from Saab really undermines my own confidence in our procurement system and in government as a whole. Joly is especially infuriating here as she is entirely out of her depth on this file and seemingly having a major conflict of interest, given she's pushing for a production facility in Montreal which houses her own riding of Ahuntsic-Cartierville.

With this all being said, Toronto Sun is a known rag and Lilley isn't exactly known as being an unbiased source of info regarding Liberal Governments. There isn't sources attached here, so I am a bit skeptical of all of this.

If the French air force decided it wanted the F35 and no rafales, it would be laughed out of the room.

If the US air force decided it wanted the eurofighter instead of F16s it would be laughed out of the room.

If the swedish air force decided it wanted rafales instead of the gripen it would be laughed out of the room.

Countries that take their defense seriously dont entertain outsourcing all of their military procurement to outside nations.

While i dont expect canada to build a domestic fighter program out of nothing, partnering with another nation is the next best thing, and if the RCAF isnt on board, i would laugh them out of the room.

 

[Altair]

Because Saab is effectively the least capable partner out of any of the European aerospace companies for Canada to partner with? Even if Saab successfully signs themselves up with the Germans, they are going to be very much the junior partner in the relationship with Airbus and Germany/Spain. We are signing up to what is likely the most troublesome European 6th gen program alongside the industrial laggard of Saab, who doesn't have much relevant experience outside of their excellent EW systems in building 5th generation aircraft, let alone jumping directly into a 6th generation program. They can take their defence as seriously as they want, seriousness doesn't conjure expertise and capability out of thin air. Airbus is a very competent company with the ability to eventually build a next gen fighter, but this will be very difficult with them forced to lead.

Unless someone else is willing to be full partners, SAAB is our best bet to get a industrial capacity here in Canada. Unless you can name another who would set up shop here in Canada. Because if thats the goal, who better than SAAB?

Compare this with GCAP, who has Britain (involved with the F-35 program with production/design alongside Eurofighter), Japan (domestic existing 4th gen design/production capability and existing 5th gen prototype design capability) and Italy (production/assembly/design of Eurofighter alongside production/assembly of F-35). Personally, I'd much rather throw Canada's effort and funding into GCAP versus whatever comes from the now split European programs.

Do both. Hedge bets.

I would attach some stipulations to Saab "setting up" in Canada. From what has been released,

Im going to stop you right there.

We dont know what any deal might be. So im not going to speculate, thanks.

 

[Good2Golf]

While i dont expect canada to build a domestic fighter program out of nothing, partnering with another nation is the next best thing, and if the RCAF isnt on board, i would laugh them out of the room.

Some seem to believe partnering is only valid if done with the U.S.

It is not at all unreasonable to consider multiple COAs when it comes to capability/programmatic partnering, just as it is prudent to do so when planning operations.

 

[Altair]

Some seem to believe partnering is only valid if done with the U.S.

It is not at all unreasonable to consider multiple COAs when it comes to capability/programmatic partnering, just as it is prudent to do so when planning operations.

Exactly this.

We are about to have a surge in defense spending from 1.5 percent of GDP to 3.5 percent, 5 percent if we include the extras.

I would like to think that would facilitate a change in thinking about how we spend that money, and where.

But many seem to be wed to the way we have always done it, which piss poor results. Sure, lets spend 3.5 percent on defense and just buy others peoples shit, spend every dollar outside of Canada, and leave us at the mercy of future politicians who suddenly decide to cut the military to the bone with zero repercussions because zero canadian jobs will be effected.

Again, if we decided we would buy bradleys and GD in london went tits up, there would be outrage.

Its not unreasonable to want to create that dynamic for the air force.