The RCAF's Next Generation Fighter (CF-188 Replacement)

[Good2Golf]

10 months to go from the pre-SOR "Manley Report" to $292M contracted and 6 x CH-147D flying in Kandahar.

 

[PuckChaser]

10 months to go from the pre-SOR "Manley Report" to $292M contracted and 6 x CH-147D flying in Kandahar.

Didn't we have the contract signed for the CH-147F about a year after that? 2 years and we had completed a procurement cycle for a $5B CAD purchase.

 

[Good2Golf]

Didn't we have the contract signed for the CH-147F about a year after that? 2 years and we had completed a procurement cycle for a $5B CAD purchase.

6 months - July 2009.  The fleet of CH-147Fs was actually delivered one month earlier than contracted. :nod:

 

[suffolkowner]

No, not Trudeau.

The ULCV happened on his watch.  The FWSAR happened on his watch (or at least was completed on his watch).

It is true that there are many procurement cockups.  It is also true that some business gets done sometimes.  The fact that some successes happen makes it all the more frustrating when failures occur.

I am guessing there weren't many jobs/IRBs at stake in the ULCV contract.  And there was "will" to get materiel to people currently engaging the enemy (even though they are not in combat).

I'm not anti-Trudeau by any stretch, but I'm not willing to give him any credit on those files. If he/the Liberals can come up with a plan on the fighter plane replacement that makes sense to me or even progress on the shipbuilding project than that's another matter

 

[PuckChaser]

The ULCV happened on his watch.  The FWSAR happened on his watch (or at least was completed on his watch).

Both of those were going to happen regardless of who won the election. The files were so far forward it would have taken an active effort to stop them. I'll give someone credit if they stand up on record and say "this is taking too long" and make results happen.

You can't use CANSOF procurement as an example of government efficiency. They don't seem like they dick around with anything, and when you get to silver bullet anything you want to Pri 1, its real easy to get things quick.

 

[a_majoor]

Heck, we're capable of doing a full defense review in less than 18 months, why can't we figure out a fighter aircraft in that time as well?

Because it was already "figured out" to exclude the CF-35. No need for a messy competition or anything which might derail the narrative (like facts or an RCAF report denying a capability gap and expressly warning against an "interim" fighter).

 

[jmt18325]

Is your entire goal here to just disagree with everyone to be a troll? You said you don't want SH, you don't want an expedited competition to actually pick a replacement, so what do you really want here? You've never been able to clearly articulate a position other than to be opposed to everyone else.

You misunderstand me.

I don't want to buy interim super hornets.  On the other hand, I like the idea of a larger air force, and I don't believe the F-35 is completely ready, based on what I've read.  I want to have a fast competition with aircraft arriving in the early 2020s.  A fast competition doesn't seem to be possible for the government given recent history for almost every project.  Given that, I understand the logic to simply buying some aircraft to get us through.  It is not ideal.  It is political.  It might work. 

Positions are not always simple - nuance.

I actually haven't been opposed to what everyone else has said.  A lot of other people simply like to argue because the Liberals did something.  I don't have time for that.

 

[PuckChaser]

Given that, I understand the logic to simply buying some aircraft to get us through.  It is not ideal.  It is political.  It might work. 

A lot of other people simply like to argue because the Liberals did something.  I don't have time for that.

There's a lot of experience here in Liberal policies that directly affect lives in a negative fashion (EH101, sold CH-147Ds) where they can see what this SH road is leading us too. There might be some utility in buying interim jets awaiting the final replacement (Aus buying SH to await F-35) IF that final decision had been made. What a lot of folks are up in arms about, is the large punt of the file past an election to avoid an inconvenient decision having to be made, to save political face. Very much of the same from the 1990s Liberals cancelling EH101 with no replacement, starting the process from scratch. 20 years later we're just getting helicopters.

 

[dapaterson]

What a lot of folks are up in arms about, is the large punt of the file past an election to avoid an inconvenient decision having to be made, to save political face.

So we've now got both major political parties in Canada who have punted the file past an election to save political face.

Therefore, everyone complaining here will be voting NDP in the next election, since they're the only of the three largest parties in Canada who haven't punted the F35 file yet...

 

[jmt18325]

What a lot of folks are up in arms about, is the large punt of the file past an election to avoid an inconvenient decision having to be made, to save political face.

Just as was done before the 2011 election.  I voted Conservative in 2008 and 2011.  I supported them most of the way through the last campaign.  They did a good job of governing.  They didn't do much in the way of good for the military post 2010.

 

[Loachman]

I don't believe the F-35 is completely ready, based on what I've read.

The Israelis, not a people keen to make mistakes in matters of national survival, seem to disagree with you. They think that is ready enough to accept their first two examples.

But, yes, we all get it: you are the only one in step.

Canada is the only member of the partnership dithering on acquisition, and that is purely due to stupid partisan reasons.

The time between finally making the right decision, which could be immediately if this government wished to actually make an evidence-based decision as they have promised to do with all decisions, and first deliveries will be enough to assure sufficient performance.

 

[HB_Pencil]

1997 when the Chretien government bought us into the F-35 program.

To be fair, the actual procurement phase started in 2006 with the establishment of the Next Generation Fighter Capability Office. Before that point Canada's participation in the JSF program was largely focused on keeping Canada abreast of developments in the project and (much more importantly) obtain industrial opportunities for Canada.

 

[MarkOttawa]

It's interesting by comparison with defence buys that the Coast Guard's recent effectively sole-sourced light and medium helo acquisitions proceeded pretty rapidly and attracted little media scrutiny and were not politically contentious.  Why? A) Nobody pays much attention to the Coast Guard; B) Contracts went to Bell, Montreal:

Bell Rung: All 15 Canadian Coast Guard Light Helos Delivered
https://cgai3ds.wordpress.com/2016/03/14/mark-collins-bell-rung-all-15-canadian-coast-guard-light-helos-delivered/

Canadian Coast Guard’s New Medium-Lift Helos Sole-Sourced to Bell Helicopter Canada
https://cgai3ds.wordpress.com/2015/04/11/mark-collins-canadian-coast-guards-new-medium-lift-helos-sole-sourced-to-bell-canada/

Government of Canada accepts new [medium-lift] helicopters for the Canadian Coast Guard
http://news.gc.ca/web/article-en.do?mthd=index&crtr.page=1&nid=1166679

Mark
Ottawa

 

[RaceAddict]

Back on topic of the CF-188 replacement:

Aircrew Injured During Ground Aircraft Emergency; Naval Air Forces Declares Operational Pause for Super Hornet and Growler Fleet

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Sounds like a failure of landing gear?

 

[kev994]

The Super Hornet fleet is not ready yet, lets buy some F5s instead

I couldn't resist, please don't take that seriously.

 

[MarkOttawa]

F-35 LRIP 9 costs (US$, without engine)

F-35 ‘Not Out Of Control’: Prices Drop 5.5% For F-35A

One week after President-Elect Donald Trump tweeted that the cost of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter was “out of control,” the F-35 program office announced the price of most variants had dropped yet again. The contract for Low Rate Initial Production (LRIP) Lot 9 will buy 57 aircraft, 34 for the US and 23 for foreign partners Britain, Norway, Italy, Japan, and Israel:

    42 F-35As (26 US, 16 foreign), the vanilla variant used by the Air Force and most foreign partners, at $102.1 million apiece — 5.5 percent less than the previous lot, LRIP 8, and 60 percent below the first fighters bought under LRIP 1.
    13 F-35Bs (6 US, 7 foreign), the “jump jet” variant used by the Marine Corps and the Royal Navy, the most technologically challenging model, at $131.6 million apiece — 1.8 percent below LRIP 8.
    2 F-35Cs (both US), the US Navy variant reinforced for tooth-rattling aircraft carrier takeoffs and landings,  at $132.2 million apiece — a 2.5 increase over LRIP 8, but that’s because the Navy slashed its buy in half (from 4 planes to 2), losing economies of scale.

In other words, if you want to reduce the cost per plane, you really don’t want to reduce the number you’re buying...
http://breakingdefense.com/2016/12/33483/

Mark
Ottawa

 

[CBH99]

It's not that the cost per unit is out of control - I think we all agree that the price per unit is going down.

It's the amount of money that Lockheed is charging to iron out remaining deficiencies in the software, which according to the US DoD's chief tester, remain quite serious. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-07/misleading-f-35-answers-drafted-by-pentagon-testing-chief-says-iwerk3w8

 

[PuckChaser]

It's not that the cost per unit is out of control - I think we all agree that the price per unit is going down.

It's the amount of money that Lockheed is charging to iron out remaining deficiencies in the software, which according to the US DoD's chief tester, remain quite serious. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-07/misleading-f-35-answers-drafted-by-pentagon-testing-chief-says-iwerk3w8

I think LockMart and the rest of the DoD contractors are going to realize the new reality is fiscally responsible programs. No more blank cheques for $2B USD bombers or $4B USD Destroyers. They'll rapidly adjust or they simply won't win contracts. General Dynamics is lucky the F-35 exists, or all this heat over cost overruns would be on their heads for Zumwalt.

 

[SupersonicMax]

It's not that the cost per unit is out of control - I think we all agree that the price per unit is going down.

It's the amount of money that Lockheed is charging to iron out remaining deficiencies in the software, which according to the US DoD's chief tester, remain quite serious. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-07/misleading-f-35-answers-drafted-by-pentagon-testing-chief-says-iwerk3w8

And why are the Canadian public and Liberals arms up in the air criticizing balooning cost for the JSF when really, it doesn't affect our bottom line?