The RCAF's Next Generation Fighter (CF-188 Replacement)

[PuckChaser]

Tell me again why the the US are going to give Sweden permission to export the US tech in Grippens to Canada so that we can avoid buying F35s to get back at the Americans?

In my view, if Canada wants out of F35, it is far too late. We have already paid for 16. 16 is not a viable fleet, so we have to buy 40-50 to get a viable fleet, as has been explained multiple times, upthread, by people who know.

Short of buying Chinese or Russian, the only other current fighter option to avoid ITAR issues is Rafale.

So, why the Grippen theatre?

I definitely agree, and after we've declared our alliance dead with the US I can see them being spiteful enough to block any ITAR transfer of a replacement airframe. We've also seen 15 years of LPC theatre on the F35 purchase, I wouldn't expect it to stop now.

We can leverage tariff exemptions for buying US weapons systems, but the current government and front runner is too cheap or too unintelligent to do so. Instead, Elbows Up guys!!!

 

[GR66]

Gripen still uses a licensed GE414 turbofan engine, so US can flex the ITAR-restriction hammer, using the OTBOTBRAR* technique, like they did for Colombia.


* OTBOTBRAR - On the bus, off the bus, rinse and repeat

The US preventing a NATO ally from purchasing a weapon system from another NATO ally due to ITAR restrictions would be a nuclear option for the US. It's not the same as blocking a sale to non-NATO Colombia. It would eventually result in a complete de-coupling of the US and non-US defence industries as why would any company outside the US choose to use ITAR-controlled products in their system if the US can block their export to any other country, even close alliance allies, on a whim? What non-US defence firm can survive by relying on only orders from their home nation and no exports? Who could risk that?

Not saying that the current US administration might not be stupid/incompetent enough to do it, but the long term effects would be technological isolation for the US.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Gripen still uses a licensed GE414 turbofan engine, so US can flex the ITAR-restriction hammer, using the OTBOTBRAR* technique, like they did for Colombia.


* OTBOTBRAR - On the bus, off the bus, rinse and repeat

The Swedes are giving the US the middle finger

 

[KevinB]

The US preventing a NATO ally from purchasing a weapon system from another NATO ally due to ITAR restrictions would be a nuclear option for the US. It's not the same as blocking a sale to non-NATO Colombia. It would eventually result in a complete de-coupling of the US and non-US defence industries as why would any company outside the US choose to use ITAR-controlled products in their system if the US can block their export to any other country, even close alliance allies, on a whim? What non-US defence firm can survive by relying on only orders from their home nation and no exports? Who could risk that?

Not saying that the current US administration might not be stupid/incompetent enough to do it, but the long term effects would be technological isolation for the US.

Canada buying the Grippen would just be complete stupidity...

 

[GR66]

Canada buying the Grippen would just be complete stupidity...

Not saying I support it...just giving an opinion of the potential consequences if the US were to block a sale of them to Canada.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Canada buying the Grippen would just be complete stupidity...

The US tariffing the f**K out of Canada, trying to destroy it and absorb it and tearing up existing agreements would be complete stupidity......

 

[calculus]

The Swedes are giving the US the middle finger

I don't believe the EJ230, which was to be a growth variant of the Eurofighter EJ200, was ever fully developed, so presumably there would be a considerable number of years before a Gripen variant with that engine would be available. This seems like vaporware.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

I don't believe the EJ230, which was to be a growth variant of the Eurofighter EJ200, was ever fully developed, so presumably there would be a considerable number of years before a Gripen variant with that engine would be available. This seems like vaporware.

I am not knowledgeable enough to comment beyond stating what is appearing in social media.

 

[Quirky]

So, why the Grippen theatre?

because eLboWs uP and the Gripen following is more of a cult than a viable F-35 alternative.

 

[calculus]

I am not knowledgeable enough to comment beyond stating what is appearing in social media.

Further muddying the waters:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/south-korea-fighter-jet-f-35-contract-1.7510220

Still uses American engines, however.

 

[Czech_pivo]

The Swedes are giving the US the middle finger

They completely understand the assignment.

 

[GK .Dundas]

And all we have to do to in order to qualify for this golden opportunity is spend several billion in development costs.
Are you sure they're not fronting for Bombardier? This sounds so familiar.

 

[JLB50]

In fact, I bet if you told Trump we'd be willing to buy up to 150 F35 in exchange for dropping all tariffs, he'd play ball. Give him the out he wants and stop cutting our nose off to spite our face.

Going ahead with the full order of F-35s still doesn’t solve the basic problem, which is Trump himself. Even if we had ordered 150 F-35s he could still pull the rug out from under us for whatever reason, even if it has nothing to do with the military. The fact is, the United States has become dangerously unstable, both to Canada and to the world.

We share a common border with them and our economy is already heavily dominated by the Americans. But we need to stop being so submissive to them. So I say, by all means go ahead with at least the minimum order or even a dozen or so more to satisfy our NORAD commitments. Just not the full order for 88 fighters, unless it’s a contractual requirement. In the meantime, engage in serious talks with the French for some Rafales or perhaps even the Swedes for an updated, de-Americanized Gripen. Or a next generation fighter.

Going back to the late Stephen Harper/early Justin Trudeau years, one of the primary advantages being touted for acquiring the F-35 was, not so much its stealth properties, but its more seamless interoperability with the Americans for NATO, even though some of the European jets offered were superior in many respects. Nearly 30 years have elapsed since Canada first got involved in the serious debate over which fighter was best for Canada, and by 2002 we had committed to the co-development and production of the JSF. Since then there have been a lot of new developments—militarily, politically and economically. Even if Trump were not the current President I still think we need to re-evaluate what works best according to our existing and projected needs. And we should not feel compelled to purchase American military equipment in order to stay on their good side, especially when that good side is not looking so good any more.

 

[PuckChaser]

The killswitch has been debunked and after complaining about our lack of input into NORAD, why would they turn off our planes if something magical like this even existed? Let's not mince words, if they're invaded by the US, we're doing nothing to stop it other than starting a pretty bad ass insurgency. They'd have over 10 to 1 in just. fighter ratio.

 

[Underway]

Going ahead with the full order of F-35s still doesn’t solve the basic problem, which is Trump himself. Even if we had ordered 150 F-35s he could still pull the rug out from under us for whatever reason, even if it has nothing to do with the military. The fact is, the United States has become dangerously unstable, both to Canada and to the world.

We share a common border with them and our economy is already heavily dominated by the Americans. But we need to stop being so submissive to them. So I say, by all means go ahead with at least the minimum order or even a dozen or so more to satisfy our NORAD commitments. Just not the full order for 88 fighters, unless it’s a contractual requirement. In the meantime, engage in serious talks with the French for some Rafales or perhaps even the Swedes for an updated, de-Americanized Gripen. Or a next generation fighter.

Here's an idea. How about we worry about what will or will not get people killed flying in an aircraft.

Gripen/Rafales will get people killed in a 5th gen battlespace. F35 will dominate a 5th gen battlespace. Even a "not software upgraded degraded" F35 will be way better than a Gripen.

And if you're going to do a mixed fleet there needs to be a plan for that, doctrinally. It has to be worth the cost.

Australia uses the missile truck Superhornets as strike aircraft and the F35 as quarterback, air to air and target desig.

It's probably better for Canada to go to a 6th gen air superiority fighter (GCAP etc....), and loyal wingmen than to go backwords to another 4th gen fighter that can't do the missile truck (to small). I'm ok with not picking up the F35 option (to the full 88) if that means we get loyal wingmen or join a 6th gen project instead. That's just future proofing the force and in a lot of ways looking forward with a plan other than flying the same aircraft for 40 years. Even without the US troubles I would be onboard with this way forward.

 

[KevinB]

Here's an idea. How about we worry about what will or will not get people killed flying in an aircraft.

Gripen/Rafales will get people killed in a 5th gen battlespace. F35 will dominate a 5th gen battlespace. Even a "not software upgraded degraded" F35 will be way better than a Gripen.

And if you're going to do a mixed fleet there needs to be a plan for that, doctrinally. It has to be worth the cost.

Australia uses the missile truck Superhornets as strike aircraft and the F35 as quarterback, air to air and target desig.

It's probably better for Canada to go to a 6th gen air superiority fighter (GCAP etc....), and loyal wingmen than to go backwords to another 4th gen fighter that can't do the missile truck (to small). I'm ok with not picking up the F35 option (to the full 88) if that means we get loyal wingmen or join a 6th gen project instead. That's just future proofing the force and in a lot of ways looking forward with a plan other than flying the same aircraft for 40 years. Even without the US troubles I would be onboard with this way forward.

I'd opt for the full 88, and only chop it down if you can tack on a bunch of F-15EX's to do the bomb truck role (which I think is fairly foolish for Canada unless you get say 66 F-35 and 66 F-15EX) which I think would be financially and politically unpalatable at this point in Canada.

I agree you should look into a LW and 6th Gen program - but I wouldn't hold your breath it will be vastly superior to the F-35 (outside of the F-47 which will be prohibitively expensive) so cover your bases with the F-35 and watch and shoot on the 6th Gen.

 

[Fabius]

F-35 nations prize spare parts, as US dismisses kill-switch angst

Concerns have grown in Europe about the extent to which Washington could exercise control over F-35 fleets globally.

www.defensenews.com

This article has some interesting information on the F35 supply chain as well as the 1-4 Line maintenance construct.

Curious to see if Canada sets up a National 4th Line Maintenance Facility using L3 Harris. This article seems to indicate we are exploring the idea.

Canada announces L3Harris for CF-35A airframe maintenance

Canada identifies L3Harris as strategic partner for F-35 Joint Program Office (JPO) to investigate requirements for CF-35A airframe depot.

canadiandefencereview.com

 

[Czech_pivo]

F-35 nations prize spare parts, as US dismisses kill-switch angst

Concerns have grown in Europe about the extent to which Washington could exercise control over F-35 fleets globally.

www.defensenews.com

This article has some interesting information on the F35 supply chain as well as the 1-4 Line maintenance construct.

Curious to see if Canada sets up a National 4th Line Maintenance Facility using L3 Harris. This article seems to indicate we are exploring the idea.

Canada announces L3Harris for CF-35A airframe maintenance

Canada identifies L3Harris as strategic partner for F-35 Joint Program Office (JPO) to investigate requirements for CF-35A airframe depot.

canadiandefencereview.com

I read an article out of Belgium yesterday saying that they have ask Italy to be the source of production for all of their F35’s, not the US. The article hinted that other European countries were looking to see if this was possible for their F35’s as well. The Europeans were looking at ensuring production jobs for Europeans, not Americans.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

I'd opt for the full 88, and only chop it down if you can tack on a bunch of F-15EX's to do the bomb truck role (which I think is fairly foolish for Canada unless you get say 66 F-35 and 66 F-15EX) which I think would be financially and politically unpalatable at this point in Canada.

I agree you should look into a LW and 6th Gen program - but I wouldn't hold your breath it will be vastly superior to the F-35 (outside of the F-47 which will be prohibitively expensive) so cover your bases with the F-35 and watch and shoot on the 6th Gen.

A portion of your air force can be basic bomb trucks, because it is likely that not all the conflicts we will get involved in for the next 30 years will be high end conflicts. You could have used WWII aircraft equipped with modern sniper pods to fight the Taliban. It is very likley we will be involved in another such conflict. Where a basic aircraft that is easy to maintain will play a big role.

We know we are getting some F35's. The only question now is how many of that type do we absolutely need? Contracting to buy more F35's , prepping our facilities for them or negotiating for another aircraft to fly alongside is going to take more than 4 years, which means things will change on the political front and we can assess again then.

 

[Quirky]

The only question now is how many of that type do we absolutely need?

88-100 minimum.