The RCAF's Next Generation Fighter (CF-188 Replacement)

[ytz]

The concern I have is that you will end up with a less than optimal number of F-35 and keep them longer than reasonable (just like the CF-18 and CPF and etc etc. )

That could happen even with the 88 frames down the road.

There's no point trying to plan for a hypothetical four decades from now. It's possible to plan for the next 10-15 years.

 

[ytz]

The point I was trying to make was against those who promote buying the minimal number of F-35s (and either assuming we keep the F-18s flying or buying something else) and wait in hope of the next generation is on time.

GCAP is under a ton of pressure to deliver because the main customer (Japan) is facing a resurgent China and won't tolerate slippage. They want it in service by 2035. And they have threatened to simply go their own way if they have to. So I trust them to mostly keep this on track. 2040 first delivery for us, gives us 9 years between the last F-35 delivery (assuming 65 frames) and first GCAP delivery, while giving that program 5 years to mature their flying.

 

[KevinB]

That could happen even with the 88 frames down the road.

There's no point trying to plan for a hypothetical four decades from now. It's possible to plan for the next 10-15 years.

Agreed, the CAF has a history of buying less and less and keeping it past its shelf life.

My primary concern with less than 88 F-35 is that (and even with 88 F-35) is that the GoC will decide that the F-35 can last another election cycle again and again and then in 2065 will look for 45 Airframes as a replacement.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Agreed, the CAF has a history of buying less and less and keeping it past its shelf life.

My primary concern with less than 88 F-35 is that (and even with 88 F-35) is that the GoC will decide that the F-35 can last another election cycle again and again and then in 2065 will look for 45 Airframes as a replacement.

The King and Queen of Sweden are in Ottawa and Montreal from 18 Nov to 20 Nov. Willing to bet a 50 pack of Timbits that we announce some sort of SAAB Gripen production deal then.

We'll be going with a mixed fleet.

 

[Retired AF Guy]

I'd agree with you that the F-35 may be a bit of overkill for the NORAD role but if you're going to go with a 2nd platform you need to pick something that prioritises range, payload, interoperability with US platforms and ideally a 2nd seat for controlling CCV's. To my mind the only aircraft that checks all those boxes is the F-15EX.

Agreed. The F-15EX would have been perfect, but unfortunately, was not offered. And looking back, the F-15 Eagle was one of entrants to replace the CF-5, CF-101, and CF-104 but was rejected because it cost to much; something about that stinginess that seems to run through Canadian politics.

 

[Maxman1]

Saab is also a partner in the T-7 Red Hawk. Maybe Saab could be convinced to build that in Canada if we chose it to replace the Hawk and Tutor.

Boeing–Saab T-7 Red Hawk - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org