The RCAF's Next Generation Fighter (CF-188 Replacement)

[Kirkhill]

Maybe so but this shift sits squarely in the lap of the present US administration which has become unreliable and maybe even threatening as a partner. Canada will not be the only nation who will divest itself of ties to the US military industrial complex. Be careful of where you point your finger unless it's at the mirror.

Judging from Hegseth's recent comments the US itself is looking at divesting itself of ties to the US military industrial complex.

I have to think Eisenhower would approve. Just as he may have approved of getting the Europeans yo stand up for themselves.

 

[Navy_Pete]

So, like these guys, then??

Humming that while the ship is at emergency stations during a workups while sea training is there is not a recommended COA.

Sub-Lieutenant Clive Carrington-Wood of HMS Sheffield starting to sing that while in the water with the rest of the crew watching the ship sink after having been given the 'abandon ship' order following a missile strike is the stuff of legend though, so probably a good example of context mattering.

'Always Look on the Bright Side of Life': That One Time British Sailors Sang Monty Python as They Watched Their Ship Burn

 

[Quirky]

The Gripen to compliment the F-35 would be an absolute idiotic decision when the F-16 is a proven platform. How many flights and combat missions has the Gripen E completed so far?

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Do these two thoughts marry up?

As in

20% Survivable equivalent to 6th Gen fighters

40% Attritable/Reusable equivalent to CCAs in the 3 to 30 MUSD range

40% Consumables equivalent to cruise missiles and other smart munitions.

Presumably the MQ-9B slots into the Attritable/Reusable category as a high end surveillance and recce device.

But what is one to make of the PQ8?

Or satellites?

There is so much cross-pollination going on just now it is difficult to see how any rules can be anythung more than guidelines.

That MLC 50 on the vehicle means it's roughly 50 short tons fully loaded.

 

[Kirkhill]

Don't believe that the end result, if this Saab Gripen spin is ultimately correct, would be Canada 'tossing out the best options for Canada' but a pivot towards 2 distinct sets of fighters. My guess, and its a guess, is that we'll continue forward with a reduced number of F35's into the future as well as the Gripen, with or without Rolls-Royce engines.

If the US goes down the route of kicking sand in our face regarding other ITAR related items on the Gripens, Canada could easily dangle the Aegis system on the future River class and say, fine, we'll go with the BAE CMS with the UK, Norwegians and Australians. Again, our first 3 Rivers could only have the Aegis and the remaining 12 BAE's CMS.

I am certain that there is alot more to what is going on than what is being made public, on this topic and others. Eventually it may come out, some or all, eventually and the results may shock us.

Re the Gripens

If the ITAR stuff were deleted could a simplified Gripen be produced for the FFLIT program?

A new CF5?

For good or evil.

Re the Rivers

If the AEGIS program is ditched would that reduce the cost of the RCDp
program?

 

[KevinB]

Don't believe that the end result, if this Saab Gripen spin is ultimately correct, would be Canada 'tossing out the best options for Canada' but a pivot towards 2 distinct sets of fighters. My guess, and its a guess, is that we'll continue forward with a reduced number of F35's into the future as well as the Gripen, with or without Rolls-Royce engines.

If the US goes down the route of kicking sand in our face regarding other ITAR related items on the Gripens, Canada could easily dangle the Aegis system on the future River class and say, fine, we'll go with the BAE CMS with the UK, Norwegians and Australians. Again, our first 3 Rivers could only have the Aegis and the remaining 12 BAE's CMS.

I am certain that there is alot more to what is going on than what is being made public, on this topic and others. Eventually it may come out, some or all, eventually and the results may shock us.

And all of a sudden CMS 330 on the CPF’s goes away.

Canada seems to think incorrectly that they have a stick. Nearly all the Defence Industries in Canada are subsidiaries of US companies, or have deep ties to US companies that limit any national grandstanding.

While they may be ‘Canadian’ companies, they are totally controlled by US interests.

Which is why I don’t believe any of this background noise will amount to anything.

You don’t send a King and Queen to announce a deal, you send them to try to do some sweat talking to make a deal.

 

[KevinB]

Re the Gripens

If the ITAR stuff were deleted could a simplified Gripen be produced for the FFLIT program?

A new CF5?

For good or evil.

Re the Rivers

If the AEGIS program is ditched would that reduce the cost of the RCDp
program?

 

[Czech_pivo]

And all of a sudden CMS 330 on the CPF’s goes away.

Canada seems to think incorrectly that they have a stick. Nearly all the Defence Industries in Canada are subsidiaries of US companies, or have deep ties to US companies that limit any national grandstanding.

While they may be ‘Canadian’ companies, they are totally controlled by US interests.

Which is why I don’t believe any of this background noise will amount to anything.

You don’t send a King and Queen to announce a deal, you send them to try to do some sweat talking to make a deal.

Valid points about the defense industries.

Time will tell about Swedish King/Queen. The CEO of Saab will be in attendance, along with Ericksson

 

[Czech_pivo]

And all of a sudden CMS 330 on the CPF’s goes away.

Canada seems to think incorrectly that they have a stick. Nearly all the Defence Industries in Canada are subsidiaries of US companies, or have deep ties to US companies that limit any national grandstanding.

While they may be ‘Canadian’ companies, they are totally controlled by US interests.

Which is why I don’t believe any of this background noise will amount to anything.

You don’t send a King and Queen to announce a deal, you send them to try to do some sweat talking to make a deal.

An article written by a certain person back in Fed, 2025 has this to say about the CMS 330 - para-phasing - Canada paid for the development of the CMS330, giving it total control over the tech.

 

[KevinB]

An article written by a certain person back in Fed, 2025 has this to say about the CMS 330 - para-phasing - Canada paid for the development of the CMS330, giving it total control over the tech.

Missing the point, as to what can happen if LocMart Canada packs up.

My point is acting like children will hurt both sides. We already have one here

 

[FJAG]

The engines are but a minor part of the ITAR controlled aspects in that jet.


Yeah Canada way to go, yet another orphan fleet.

FFS, y'all need to change Stand on Guard for Thee, to Snatching Defeat from the jaws of Victory.

Kevin. Unfortunately you continue to underestimate the change in attitude towards America as a whole since over 70 million of your folks elected a moron as president who has made it his pet project to undermine our economy and trade relations that have been mutually beneficial based on some half-backed theories.

The F-35 definitely has many upsides but also downsides - the cost of operation is but one. I'm not a fan of mixed fleets but I can see where politically for the government at this point in our international relationships would prefer to make a move that, at least in part, would demonstrate our willingness to move to alternatives. Announce now that we are committed to 16 F-35s and still keeping more under study with a plan to trickle-buy them when political opportunities make it convenient. In the meantime announce a buy of maybe 32 Grippen's if, and only if, it does lead to some serious manufacturing or assembly work here in Canada.

We're long past the point where practical common-sense rules our decision making - which incidentally is how your country has worked since 2016.

We're negotiating/fighting on many levels. Grippen isn't really an orphan fleet - especially if the Ukraine contract goes through - and interestingly that purchase would provide the street cred in modern warfare that neither it nor the F-35 have right now.

If a bunch of the aircrafts systems and avionics are ITAR, what good does swapping the engine do?

The key element here is servicing it in Canada by way of existing Rolls Royce companies already at work here.

Right now in the F-35 you have a top notch aircraft that has Canadian Made content.

And my guess is that with the increased funding of the CAF, we will eventually go for all 88 - just as soon as your folks vote the stupid out of your government and we return to some normal trade relationships.

The current administration is a big fucking mess, I agree, but I think tossing out the best options for Canada for a short sighted snub is a poor idea.

As I said in the beginning - you are underestimating just how much this country has united in realizing that the US is not our friend. It isn't just a Liberal elite issue any more. Yup. We're in the cutting off our noses to spite our faces mode. Get rid of all tariffs; stuff 'America First' where the sun doesn't shine; let's find some common ground that puts some real manufacturing back into Canada - and then we'll talk again.

 

[KevinB]

Kevin. Unfortunately you continue to underestimate the change in attitude towards America as a whole since over 70 million of your folks elected a moron as president who has made it his pet project to undermine our economy and trade relations that have been mutually beneficial based on some half-backed theories.

Fair, and I will noted that when I was up this past summer that attitude was pretty clear.

The F-35 definitely has many upsides but also downsides - the cost of operation is but one. I'm not a fan of mixed fleets but I can see where politically for the government at this point in our international relationships would prefer to make a move that, at least in part, would demonstrate our willingness to move to alternatives. Announce now that we are committed to 16 F-35s and still keeping more under study with a plan to trickle-buy them when political opportunities make it convenient. In the meantime announce a buy of maybe 32 Grippen's if, and only if, it does lead to some serious manufacturing or assembly work here in Canada.

The 32 or 320 Grippens with manufacturing or assembly in Canada will still be enormously expensive to tool a line for such a small run.
Plus the whole Iltis and LSVW jump out at me for the cost to the CAF in terms of both price and performance when that has been followed before.

We're long past the point where practical common-sense rules our decision making - which incidentally is how your country has worked since 2016.

Fair, but two wrongs don't make a right.

We're negotiating/fighting on many levels. Grippen isn't really an orphan fleet - especially if the Ukraine contract goes through - and interestingly that purchase would provide the street cred in modern warfare that neither it nor the F-35 have right now.

I foresee LocMart and RTX blocking (or at least lobbying Congress to block) the Gripen, as they have ITAR pieces of it - which are nothing compared to their financial stakes in the F-35.
I think the strikes in Iran (and Qatar) have given the F-35 some street cred, but yes, both are still relative novices in combat - but at least LocMart etc has a decent history in air combat systems.
I really like a lot of Saab's systems, with the exception of their Fighters - mainly as when I look at the Gripen I see a two side air intake version of the F-16, and then that reminds me of the bastard love child of the F-4 Phantom II and the F-16, with no significantly distinguishing features to make it a good choice.

The key element here is servicing it in Canada by way of existing Rolls Royce companies already at work here.

Let me remind you of the Griffon, and Mirabel is Bell Commercial not Military, so the performance of the UH-1Y has never been introduce to that fleet.
I can just see comments from RR that RR-Canada makes commercial aircraft engines not fighter engines - and jobs for that stay in Europe...

And my guess is that with the increased funding of the CAF, we will eventually go for all 88 - just as soon as your folks vote the stupid out of your government and we return to some normal trade relationships.

That is my guess and hope as well -- the issue is neither party has a viable candidate or platform for 2028.

As I said in the beginning - you are underestimating just how much this country has united in realizing that the US is not our friend. It isn't just a Liberal elite issue any more. Yup. We're in the cutting off our noses to spite our faces mode. Get rid of all tariffs; stuff 'America First' where the sun doesn't shine; let's find some common ground that puts some real manufacturing back into Canada - and then we'll talk again.

I would be much more enthusiastic if this was BAE, as the Swede's are a relative unknown when it comes to export production of higher than 'dumb gun' tech.
To me, Canada is better of focusing it's energies on domestic production of viable systems, which makes BAE a good partner if one wants to avoid American companies, and also the SK coalition if looking to push away from Europe as well.

 

[Kirkhill]

About | Saab

www.saab.com

It seem to offer a lot more than just Gripens....or Redhawks....or Erieyes....or Giraffes, RBS 70s, Nimbrix, CG84s, AT4s, NLAWs, Strixs, Excaliburs....MSHORAD, BCMS systems.

 

[Navy_Pete]

One side effect of ITAR and how the US applied it in the past is we actually considered having ITAR equipment as a negative scoring factor for equipment selection on non-combatants previously. That didn't happen, only because the mid life refits on the MCDVs got cancelled, but we had enough problems with it preventing maintenance and repairs for stupid things (like common fittings you can buy in bulk from home depot being ITAR) that we ended up doing a lot of re-cataloguing and updating TDP to get around it.

Still lots of things that can be controlled goods, or EU equivalent to ITAR, but generally there seems to be more common sense applied to what is actually military equipment, with a lot less application to dual use equipment or things like commercial fasteners, so even 15 years ago there was genuine discussion about moving away from that.

I think that kind of outcome might make that kind of thing pop up again, and really define what 'interoperable' actually means anyway, as we tend to Canadianize stuff anyway so can end up being non-compatible anyway.

Specific to CMS and some other software systems (like the IPMS developed for the frigates) I think we own the IP that LM and L3Harris have taken and used as a basis to develop more generic versions they've sold to other countries, so we may have more leverage over them than you think if we actually exercised those IP rights.

It would be a stupid COA on both sides, but as we're living in possibly the Idiocracy timeline version of Earth, wouldn't be outside the realm of possibility.

I miss when COA 3 (or 1, depending how you briefed it) was the stupid throwaway COA that made the other ones look better, and the recommended COA obvious, vice being the default COA.