The RCAF's Next Generation Fighter (CF-188 Replacement)

[GR66]

People here don't want to acknowledge the sheer about of money we are going to be sending to LM over the next 20yrs.

HIMARS --> K239 Chunmoo
AEGIS --> Keep CMS 330
AEGIS related systems --> Keep CMS 330
F35 --> Reduce order to 65 and add 65 x Gripen
Seahawks to replace the Cyclones if that rumour is correct --> AW101

EASILY in excesses of 35 billion CAD in new spend.

Options?

 

[ytz]

Is there currently a major Canadian player in that field? Is Sweden ahead or behind our national capability?

No major Canadian player. The Swedes gave talked about making an unmanned Gripen derivative. So maybe ahead of us.

 

[Kirkhill]

No major Canadian player. The Swedes gave talked about making an unmanned Gripen derivative. So maybe ahead of us.

I have become a fan of the Kratos RATO/Parachute model for the lower end CCA type vehicles. Runway, and to large extent platform, independent with liwer costs.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Options?

HIMARS looks to be a done deal, fine.

F35, we need them, whether we go with 65 or 88, but we need them.

AEGIS - could be we only do the first 3 of the 15 as AEGIS and the other 12 are the BAE system with CMS330.

But if nothing changes we are set to send a shit ton of Treasure off to LM.

 

[KevinB]

It is not just the US that has been hurt by the Continuous Improvement exercise that has delayed Block 4 and US weapons integration. Lack of access to a continually changing software system is not going to allow foreign partners to integrate their full inventory of weapons with the F35 in a timely fashion. Development needs to happen at Ukrainian pace and that means Israeli levels of access to the codes.

It isn’t access, it’s who is willing to spend, and who has the capabilities.
The Israelis have decided to go their own path and fund it (albeit with a lot of FMA from us).

When Blocks are done the various projects are prioritized, and if you are a minor player with a unique item, the odds of being a priority are slim to nil.

Israel's F35's weapons suite

Rampage ALBM
1000 kg bomb that can be internally carried
Python 5 AAM
Spice PGM Bombs (1000 and 2000 lb)
Derby AAM
EW suite nationally procured
C4I suite that operates on top of the factory sets

As well as the US made

GBU-31 JDAM and
AIM-120 AMRAAM.

....

UK - AIM-132 and Paveway IV
Norway - AIM-120, JDAM, SDB, AIM-9X, JSM
US - AIM-120, AIM-9X, JDAM (GBU-31, -32, -38) GBU-12 Paveway II, GBU-39 SDB, B61-12 Nuclear Gravity Bomb)
....

The feel is less one of co-operation and more one of compulsion.

Having only sat as a bit player in some rather minor airworthiness changes to an internal part inside another container - that testing ran over 35m. Which was seen as a rounding error in that sense, as this is a trillion dollar program and any alterations have to be 110% as failures or weaknesses have the potential to ground most of the NATO airpower.

When you start looking at what adapting some things that actually affect aircraft controls, the costs of that is eye watering.
The USAF is behind on integration testing as well due to lower than required airframes to keep pace with the demands.

 

[Kirkhill]

It isn’t access, it’s who is willing to spend, and who has the capabilities.
The Israelis have decided to go their own path and fund it (albeit with a lot of FMA from us).

When Blocks are done the various projects are prioritized, and if you are a minor player with a unique item, the odds of being a priority are slim to nil.



Having only sat as a bit player in some rather minor airworthiness changes to an internal part inside another container - that testing ran over 35m. Which was seen as a rounding error in that sense, as this is a trillion dollar program and any alterations have to be 110% as failures or weaknesses have the potential to ground most of the NATO airpower.

When you start looking at what adapting some things that actually affect aircraft controls, the costs of that is eye watering.
The USAF is behind on integration testing as well due to lower than required airframes to keep pace with the demands.

Which, frankly, doesn't help the sales pitch.

I am still on board with buying kit from you. Just not putting all our eggs in the proverbial.

 

[KevinB]

Which, frankly, doesn't help the sales pitch.

I am still on board with buying kit from you. Just not putting all our eggs in the proverbial.

Well keep in mind that various user nations have been asked if they wanted to contribute airframes and pilots to the test pool.
Guess the number of takers…

 

[Kirkhill]

Well keep in mind that various user nations have been asked if they wanted to contribute airframes and pilots to the test pool.
Guess the number of takers…

I believe in 80:20.
Close is good enough for me...assuming overlappjng capabilities.

 

[MilEME09]

I think the current US "peace plan" (surrender plan) for Ukraine is about to play heavily here, if the US does indeed halt deliveries of equipment europe paid for already, I dont see us staying F35 if the US will use equipment deliveries as a bargaining chip at trade talks to force us into a bad deal by affecting our national security.

 

[Czech_pivo]

I think the current US "peace plan" (surrender plan) for Ukraine is about to play heavily here, if the US does indeed halt deliveries of equipment europe paid for already, I dont see us staying F35 if the US will use equipment deliveries as a bargaining chip at trade talks to force us into a bad deal by affecting our national security.

It would be interesting to see a scenario occurring, and how it would play out, where the US lifts its upholding of the sanctions against Russia but the rest of NATO (minus Trump's lackey Hungary), us, Japan, Australia, South Korea still keeping them in place.

 

[KevinB]

I think the current US "peace plan" (surrender plan) for Ukraine is about to play heavily here, if the US does indeed halt deliveries of equipment europe paid for already, I dont see us staying F35 if the US will use equipment deliveries as a bargaining chip at trade talks to force us into a bad deal by affecting our national security.

It is bizarre since Trump this week had asked Congress for more sanctions against Russia.

Quite frankly it would appear that some in my current administration are on the Russian payroll.

 

[HavokFour]

It is bizarre since Trump this week had asked Congress for more sanctions against Russia.

Quite frankly it would appear that some in my current administration are on the Russian payroll.

From the 28 point plan:

14. Frozen funds will be used as follows:

• $100 billion in frozen Russian assets will be invested in US-led efforts to rebuild and invest in Ukraine;
• The US will receive 50% of the profits from this venture. Europe will add $100 billion to increase the amount of investment available for Ukraine's reconstruction. Frozen European funds will be unfrozen. The remainder of the frozen Russian funds will be invested in a separate US-Russian investment vehicle that will implement joint projects in specific areas. This fund will be aimed at strengthening relations and increasing common interests to create a strong incentive not to return to conflict.

Have we not yet learned from all his trade "agreements" he is incredibly susceptible to the allure and pinky promise of giant piles of imaginary investments (and very clearly takes on the position of the last people he talks to), that will likely never materialize?

 

[KevinB]

Impact Of Selling F-35s To Saudi Arabia On The Region

In a major policy shift, the Trump administration wants to sell F-35s to Saudi Arabia, but there are still hurdles ahead and concerns to satisfy. The Trump administration wants to sell F-35s to Saudi Arabia, but there are still some significant hurdles ahead.

www.twz.com

While not specifically a Canadian issue. It is interesting in the larger scheme of what aircraft you get.

 

[Remius]

Impact Of Selling F-35s To Saudi Arabia On The Region

In a major policy shift, the Trump administration wants to sell F-35s to Saudi Arabia, but there are still hurdles ahead and concerns to satisfy. The Trump administration wants to sell F-35s to Saudi Arabia, but there are still some significant hurdles ahead.

www.twz.com

While not specifically a Canadian issue. It is interesting in the larger scheme of what aircraft you get.

I’m not sure how I feel about SA getting access to that…

I suspect this is to make up for lost orders in a few places. Risky.

 

[Jarnhamar]

I get that the F-35 is the best option, if one only considers platform performance. Does that still hold up when you look beyond that? Is the F-35 actually the best for Canada and our realistic place in the world? Is the RCAF too USAF centric in their thinking?

Some of the arguments for the Gripen seem based on Canada buying it specifically to operate out of Latvia and zip around confined airspaces in western Europe. Might be good if we're planning to Garrison Latvia for a few generations.

Nothing, nothing is done quick or efficiently in Brazil. They make us look like Usain Bolt

It took us 14 years to repair 1 submarine and we don't know how much money it cost and can't list all the companies that were involved.


Who in their right mind thinks Canada can build manufacturing facilities, employ 10,000 people, and start pumping gas out Gripens within 3 years? Or even 5? Saabs making some crazy promises.

The elephant in the room is still, in my opinion, the ITAR implications of the GE F414 engines. SAAB had proposed a workaround by using a variant of the EJ200 (EJ230) which is a) undeveloped (and by some estimates would need at least 6 years before it would be available) and b) would then need to be integrated into the Gripen airframe, a further 2 years minimum effort.

Yeah. Just a quick little R&D and we'll have our own engine. More crazy Saab promises.

I’m not sure how I feel about SA getting access to that…

Imagine all the passenger planes and buildings they can take out with those.

 

[Remius]

Some of the arguments for the Gripen seem based on Canada buying it specifically to operate out of Latvia and zip around confined airspaces in western Europe. Might be good if we're planning to Garrison Latvia for a few generations.


It took us 14 years to repair 1 submarine and we don't know how much money it cost and can't list all the companies that were involved.


Who in their right mind thinks Canada can build manufacturing facilities, employ 10,000 people, and start pumping gas out Gripens within 3 years? Or even 5? Saabs making some crazy promises.

How hard would it be to shift our auto industry machine? The US wants to destroy that so we could repurpose quite a few pieces of that. Skilled labour and facilities.

Imagine all the passenger planes and buildings they can take out with those.

I’d be more worried about who they might sell information and access to…